World Cup qualification simulations (October 2021)

The October window is completed. Time to update the simulations for the qualification of the World Cup 2022 in Qatar.

Denmark and Germany are already qualified. Several teams underlined their ambitions. Some others made mistakes that could be costly. Below you can see all the consequences in terms of chances to qualify.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The simulations include all scheduled World Cup qualifiers, the AFCON 2021 and all currently scheduled friendlies (including the Arab Cup).

See here for an explanation and schedule of the qualification process and the simulation results after the September window.

UEFA

First the group stage of the qualification for the World Cup. The teams are ordered by their average group position:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Portugal	88,10	11,90	0,00	0,00	0,00
Serbia	11,90	88,10	0,00	0,00	0,00
Luxembourg	0,00	0,00	52,54	47,46	0,00
Republic of Ireland	0,00	0,00	47,46	52,54	0,00
Azerbaijan	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	100,00
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Spain	54,10	40,55	5,35	0,00	0,00
Sweden	45,90	53,68	0,42	0,00	0,00
Greece	0,00	5,77	94,23	0,00	0,00
Georgia	0,00	0,00	0,00	78,87	21,13
Kosovo	0,00	0,00	0,00	21,13	78,87
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Italy	76,67	23,33	0,00	0,00	0,00
Switzerland	23,33	76,67	0,00	0,00	0,00
Northern Ireland	0,00	0,00	73,20	20,81	5,99
Bulgaria	0,00	0,00	26,80	73,20	0,00
Lithuania	0,00	0,00	0,00	5,99	94,01
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
France	99,87	0,13	0,00	0,00	0,00
Ukraine	0,01	40,83	42,38	16,78	0,00
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0,04	38,97	29,49	31,50	0,00
Finland	0,08	20,07	28,13	51,72	0,00
Kazakhstan	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	100,00
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Belgium	99,82	0,18	0,00	0,00	0,00
Wales	0,18	53,33	46,49	0,00	0,00
Czech Republic	0,00	46,49	53,51	0,00	0,00
Estonia	0,00	0,00	0,00	91,28	8,72
Belarus	0,00	0,00	0,00	8,72	91,28
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Denmark	100,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Scotland	0,00	95,41	4,59	0,00	0,00	0,00
Israel	0,00	4,59	73,76	21,65	0,00	0,00
Austria	0,00	0,00	21,65	78,35	0,00	0,00
Faroe Islands	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	95,00	5,00
Moldova	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	5,00	95,00
group G	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Netherlands	87,20	10,52	2,28	0,00	0,00	0,00
Norway	12,24	53,14	34,62	0,00	0,00	0,00
Turkey	0,56	36,34	63,06	0,04	0,00	0,00
Montenegro	0,00	0,00	0,04	99,80	0,16	0,00
Latvia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,16	99,75	0,09
Gibraltar	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,09	99,91
group H	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Croatia	52,93	47,07	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Russia	47,07	52,93	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Slovakia	0,00	0,00	68,01	31,82	0,17	0,00
Slovenia	0,00	0,00	31,99	67,91	0,10	0,00
Malta	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,19	76,56	23,25
Cyprus	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,08	23,17	76,75
group I	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
England	99,48	0,52	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Poland	0,52	98,53	0,93	0,02	0,00	0,00
Albania	0,00	0,93	98,17	0,90	0,00	0,00
Hungary	0,00	0,02	0,90	99,08	0,00	0,00
Andorra	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	100,00	0,00
San Marino	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	100,00
group J	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Germany	100,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Romania	0,00	83,35	14,81	1,82	0,02	0,00
North Macedonia	0,00	11,45	51,18	34,79	2,58	0,00
Armenia	0,00	5,11	33,13	59,36	2,40	0,00
Iceland	0,00	0,09	0,88	4,03	95,00	0,00
Liechtenstein	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	100,00

Then the play-offs. Teams can qualify for the play-offs as group runner-up (column 'nr2') or as one of the two best UNL group winners not already qualified (column 'via UNL'). In column 'PO' you see the total probability to qualify for the play-offs. Teams are ordered by this column. 

The 6 best runners-up are seeded in the draw for the 6 semi-finals in the 3 paths. In columns 'seeded' and 'unseeded' you will find the respective probabilities and finally in column '%seeded' the chance to be seeded, given the team participates in the play-offs.

team	PO	nr2	via UNL	seeded	unseeded	%seeded
Wales	99,82	53,33	46,49	39,85	59,97	39,92
Poland	98,53	98,53	0,00	87,89	10,64	89,20
Austria	97,61	0,00	97,61	0,00	97,61	0,00
Czech Republic	97,04	46,49	50,55	17,62	79,42	18,16
Scotland	95,41	95,41	0,00	39,26	56,15	41,15
Serbia	88,10	88,10	0,00	88,10	0,00	100,00
Romania	83,35	83,35	0,00	0,02	83,33	0,02
Switzerland	76,67	76,67	0,00	75,42	1,25	98,37
Sweden	53,68	53,68	0,00	52,72	0,96	98,21
Norway	53,14	53,14	0,00	13,97	39,17	26,29
Russia	52,93	52,93	0,00	48,40	4,53	91,44
Croatia	47,07	47,07	0,00	29,70	17,37	63,10
Spain	45,90	40,55	5,35	38,00	7,90	82,79
Ukraine	40,83	40,83	0,00	0,00	40,83	0,00
Bosnia-Herzegovina	38,97	38,97	0,00	0,02	38,95	0,05
Turkey	36,34	36,34	0,00	20,31	16,03	55,89
Italy	23,33	23,33	0,00	22,76	0,57	97,56
Finland	20,07	20,07	0,00	0,08	19,99	0,40
Portugal	11,90	11,90	0,00	11,90	0,00	100,00
North Macedonia	11,45	11,45	0,00	0,00	11,45	0,00
Netherlands	10,52	10,52	0,00	8,05	2,47	76,52
Greece	5,77	5,77	0,00	4,99	0,78	86,48
Armenia	5,11	5,11	0,00	0,02	5,09	0,39
Israel	4,59	4,59	0,00	0,00	4,59	0,00
Albania	0,93	0,93	0,00	0,22	0,71	23,66
England	0,52	0,52	0,00	0,52	0,00	100,00
Belgium	0,18	0,18	0,00	0,18	0,00	100,00
France	0,13	0,13	0,00	0,00	0,13	0,00
Iceland	0,09	0,09	0,00	0,00	0,09	0,00
Hungary	0,02	0,02	0,00	0,00	0,02	0,00
Slovakia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Slovenia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Northern Ireland	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Germany	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Luxembourg	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Bulgaria	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Montenegro	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Kazakhstan	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Belarus	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Kosovo	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Denmark	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Cyprus	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Malta	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Republic of Ireland	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Georgia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Lithuania	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Azerbaijan	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Faroe Islands	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Latvia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Estonia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Moldova	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Gibraltar	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Andorra	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
San Marino	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Liechtenstein	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00

The probability to win a play-off semi-final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for the play-offs. Also in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD6).

Poland	72,67		[73,75]		13,75
Serbia	70,34		[79,84]		26,12
Switzerland	67,05		[87,45]		13,11
Wales	47,21		[47,30]		4,72
Sweden	45,17		[84,15]		10,91
Spain	40,08		[87,32]		12,71
Russia	37,54		[70,92]		-3,44
Czech Republic	35,62		[36,71]		-5,07
Scotland	31,15		[32,65]		2,94
Croatia	28,60		[60,76]		14,29
Italy	21,79		[93,40]		8,38
Norway	17,96		[33,80]		-9,49
Turkey	17,15		[47,19]		-9,40
Austria	14,33		[14,68]		-5,76
Portugal	10,80		[90,76]		3,32
Romania	9,99		[11,99]		-15,49
Ukraine	9,81		[24,03]		-7,63
Netherlands	7,96		[75,67]		-3,35
Bosnia-Herzegovina	5,21		[13,37]		1,48
Finland	3,44		[17,14]		-5,60
Greece	3,38		[58,58]		0,20
North Macedonia	0,90		[7,86]		-4,40
Israel	0,51		[11,11]		-17,07
England	0,44		[84,62]		0,28
Armenia	0,38		[7,44]		-6,48
Albania	0,23		[24,73]		-3,26
Belgium	0,18		[100,00]		0,11
France	0,09		[69,23]		-1,77
Iceland	0,02		[22,22]		-0,13
Hungary	0,00		[0,00]		-6,04
Slovakia	0,00		[0,00]		-4,15
Slovenia	0,00		[0,00]		-1,68
Germany	0,00		[0,00]		-1,28
Northern Ireland	0,00		[0,00]		-0,40
Luxembourg	0,00		[0,00]		-0,15
Montenegro	0,00		[0,00]		-0,14
Denmark	0,00		[0,00]		-0,05
Bulgaria	0,00		[0,00]		-0,04
Kosovo	0,00		[0,00]		-0,03
Belarus	0,00		[0,00]		-0,01
Kazakhstan	0,00		[0,00]		-0,01
Republic of Ireland	0,00		[0,00]		0,00
Cyprus	0,00		[0,00]		0,00
Georgia	0,00		[0,00]		0,00
Azerbaijan	0,00		[0,00]		0,00
Lithuania	0,00		[0,00]		0,00
Latvia	0,00		[0,00]		0,00
Estonia	0,00		[0,00]		0,00

The probability to win a play-off final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for a final. Also in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD6).

Switzerland	41,16		[61,39]		5,85
Poland	31,07		[42,75]		2,96
Spain	30,72		[76,65]		10,63
Serbia	30,72		[43,67]		9,21
Sweden	24,62		[54,51]		4,20
Wales	24,31		[51,49]		0,53
Czech Republic	17,87		[50,17]		-4,68
Italy	17,07		[78,34]		6,50
Russia	15,21		[40,52]		-1,32
Croatia	13,73		[48,01]		6,30
Scotland	9,73		[31,24]		-0,09
Portugal	7,64		[70,74]		2,00
Norway	7,18		[39,98]		-4,93
Turkey	6,21		[36,21]		-4,57
Austria	4,95		[34,54]		-2,80
Ukraine	4,89		[49,85]		-4,22
Netherlands	4,60		[57,79]		-2,35
Romania	3,06		[30,63]		-5,12
Bosnia-Herzegovina	1,84		[35,32]		0,58
Finland	1,33		[38,66]		-2,59
Greece	1,14		[33,73]		-0,24
England	0,29		[65,91]		0,22
Israel	0,15		[29,41]		-5,56
Belgium	0,15		[83,33]		0,10
North Macedonia	0,14		[15,56]		-1,08
Armenia	0,10		[26,32]		-1,63
France	0,07		[77,78]		-1,37
Albania	0,04		[17,39]		-1,00
Iceland	0,01		[50,00]		-0,04
Hungary	0,00		[0,00]		-2,45
Slovakia	0,00		[0,00]		-1,51
Germany	0,00		[0,00]		-0,73
Slovenia	0,00		[0,00]		-0,51
Northern Ireland	0,00		[0,00]		-0,17
Denmark	0,00		[0,00]		-0,04
Luxembourg	0,00		[0,00]		-0,03
Montenegro	0,00		[0,00]		-0,02
Kosovo	0,00		[0,00]		-0,02
Bulgaria	0,00		[0,00]		-0,01
Republic of Ireland	0,00		[0,00]		0,00
Belarus	0,00		[0,00]		0,00
Georgia	0,00		[0,00]		0,00
Cyprus	0,00		[0,00]		0,00
Lithuania	0,00		[0,00]		0,00
Azerbaijan	0,00		[0,00]		0,00
Estonia	0,00		[0,00]		0,00
Kazakhstan	0,00		[0,00]		0,00
Latvia	0,00		[0,00]		0,00

Finally the probability to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar ('Qtot'), composed of the probabilities to become a group winner ('nr1') and to win a play-off ('PO'). Also in the last column the difference in Qtot in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD6).

team	nr1	PO	Qtot		diff
Denmark	100,00	0,00	100,00		0,01
Germany	100,00	0,00	100,00		1,09
Belgium	99,82	0,15	99,97		-0,01
France	99,87	0,07	99,94		0,88
England	99,48	0,29	99,77		-0,10
Portugal	88,10	7,64	95,74		-0,76
Italy	76,67	17,07	93,74		0,12
Netherlands	87,20	4,60	91,80		0,84
Spain	54,10	30,72	84,82		2,67
Sweden	45,90	24,62	70,52		13,80
Croatia	52,93	13,73	66,66		-20,01
Switzerland	23,33	41,16	64,49		12,33
Russia	47,07	15,21	62,28		25,71
Serbia	11,90	30,72	42,62		11,98
Poland	0,52	31,07	31,59		3,30
Wales	0,18	24,31	24,49		0,64
Norway	12,24	7,18	19,42		-3,10
Czech Republic	0,00	17,87	17,87		-4,68
Scotland	0,00	9,73	9,73		-0,13
Turkey	0,56	6,21	6,77		-9,55
Austria	0,00	4,95	4,95		-2,80
Ukraine	0,01	4,89	4,90		-4,25
Romania	0,00	3,06	3,06		-6,39
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0,04	1,84	1,88		0,53
Finland	0,08	1,33	1,41		-4,76
Greece	0,00	1,14	1,14		-1,88
Israel	0,00	0,15	0,15		-5,57
North Macedonia	0,00	0,14	0,14		-1,19
Armenia	0,00	0,10	0,10		-2,07
Albania	0,00	0,04	0,04		-1,01
Iceland	0,00	0,01	0,01		-0,04
Hungary	0,00	0,00	0,00		-2,46
Slovakia	0,00	0,00	0,00		-2,19
Slovenia	0,00	0,00	0,00		-0,55
Northern Ireland	0,00	0,00	0,00		-0,27
Montenegro	0,00	0,00	0,00		-0,06
Luxembourg	0,00	0,00	0,00		-0,04
Kosovo	0,00	0,00	0,00		-0,02
Bulgaria	0,00	0,00	0,00		-0,01
Cyprus	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Republic of Ireland	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Belarus	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Georgia	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Lithuania	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Azerbaijan	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Faroe Islands	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Andorra	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Estonia	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Gibraltar	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Kazakhstan	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Latvia	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Liechtenstein	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Malta	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
Moldova	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00
San Marino	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00

There's in March also a play-out involving the four group numbers 4 in league C of the UEFA Nations League 2020 to decide which two teams remain in league C and which two teams relegate to league D for the next version of the UNL These play-outs are played as two home-and-away play-offs:

To win the play-out:

Estonia	77,81
Kazakhstan	58,88
Moldova	41,12
Cyprus	22,19

CAF

First the qualification groups. The teams are ordered by average position in the group.

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Algeria	90,29	9,71	0,00	0,00
Burkina Faso	9,71	90,29	0,00	0,00
Niger	0,00	0,00	99,58	0,42
Djibouti	0,00	0,00	0,42	99,58
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Tunisia	97,37	2,60	0,03	0,00
Equatorial Guinea	2,62	80,39	16,79	0,20
Zambia	0,01	13,06	62,87	24,06
Mauritania	0,00	3,95	20,31	75,74
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Nigeria	88,26	11,18	0,56	0,00
Cape Verde Islands	11,72	76,30	10,92	1,06
Liberia	0,00	3,87	56,14	39,99
Central African Republic	0,02	8,65	32,38	58,95
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Cote d'Ivoire	69,52	30,48	0,00	0,00
Cameroon	30,48	69,34	0,18	0,00
Malawi	0,00	0,18	62,74	37,08
Mozambique	0,00	0,00	37,08	62,92
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Mali	84,72	15,28	0,00	0,00
Uganda	15,28	82,16	2,56	0,00
Kenya	0,00	2,56	71,63	25,81
Rwanda	0,00	0,00	25,81	74,19
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Egypt	98,41	1,59	0,00	0,00
Libya	0,71	62,87	18,23	18,19
Gabon	0,88	26,02	55,66	17,44
Angola	0,00	9,52	26,11	64,37
group G	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
South Africa	53,51	46,49	0,00	0,00
Ghana	46,49	53,05	0,46	0,00
Ethiopia	0,00	0,46	62,33	37,21
Zimbabwe	0,00	0,00	37,21	62,79
group H	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Senegal	100,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Namibia	0,00	70,20	14,63	15,17
Togo	0,00	24,30	50,80	24,90
Congo	0,00	5,50	34,57	59,93
group I	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Morocco	100,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Guinea-Bissau	0,00	61,63	23,05	15,32
Guinea	0,00	27,85	53,90	18,25
Sudan	0,00	10,52	23,05	66,43
group J	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Benin	43,08	36,90	14,90	5,12
Tanzania	31,55	34,26	29,82	4,37
Congo DR	24,72	22,43	42,84	10,01
Madagascar	0,65	6,41	12,44	80,50

Then the qualification for the play-off round. The top 5 play-off participants are seeded (based on the November 2021 ranking), the other 5 are unseeded. Below you see the probabilities to qualify as seeded or unseeded, the probability to be seeded given that a team is a group winner and the total probability to qualify for the play-offs. Teams are ordered by this column. Also in the last column the difference in total qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD2).

team	seeded	unseeded	%seeded	total	diff Total
Senegal	100,00	0,00	100,00	100,00	4,75
Morocco	100,00	0,00	100,00	100,00	18,05
Egypt	18,77	79,64	19,07	98,41	30,06
Tunisia	97,37	0,00	100,00	97,37	4,79
Algeria	90,29	0,00	100,00	90,29	6,62
Nigeria	87,88	0,38	99,57	88,26	-7,13
Mali	0,15	84,57	0,18	84,72	14,18
Cote d'Ivoire	2,76	66,76	3,97	69,52	3,45
South Africa	0,00	53,51	0,00	53,51	8,70
Ghana	2,04	44,45	4,39	46,49	0,81
Benin	0,00	43,08	0,00	43,08	-7,52
Tanzania	0,00	31,55	0,00	31,55	10,48
Cameroon	0,61	29,87	2,00	30,48	0,46
Congo DR	0,00	24,72	0,00	24,72	-1,34
Uganda	0,00	15,28	0,00	15,28	-1,59
Cape Verde Islands	0,00	11,72	0,00	11,72	10,20
Burkina Faso	0,13	9,58	1,34	9,71	-6,45
Equatorial Guinea	0,00	2,62	0,00	2,62	0,59
Gabon	0,00	0,88	0,00	0,88	-3,37
Libya	0,00	0,71	0,00	0,71	-25,60
Madagascar	0,00	0,65	0,00	0,65	-1,62
Central African Republic	0,00	0,02	0,00	0,02	-0,07
Zambia	0,00	0,01	0,00	0,01	-4,96
Kenya	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-9,62
Guinea	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-9,40
Guinea-Bissau	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-8,23
Ethiopia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-7,48
Namibia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-4,03
Malawi	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-3,09
Liberia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-3,00
Rwanda	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-2,97
Zimbabwe	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-2,03
Angola	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-1,09
Mozambique	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,82
Congo	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,62
Sudan	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,42
Mauritania	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,42
Niger	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,17
Togo	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,10
Djibouti	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00

Hosam notifies that the draw for the third round will be on December 18th. That could imply that the December ranking (published December 16th) could be used to seed this draw. In December the Arab Cup will be played and several North African teams participate. This might lead to other seeding rankings, although this tournament is expected to be a friendly tournament for ranking calculation purposes, so match points exchanged in the matches in this tournament will be quite low.

I've made a second set of simulations to determine the effect of using the December ranking as seeding ranking for the third round draw:

team	seeded	unseeded	%seeded	total	diff Total
Senegal	100,00	0,00	100,00	100,00	4,75
Morocco	100,00	0,00	100,00	100,00	18,05
Egypt	19,83	78,58	20,15	98,41	30,06
Tunisia	97,37	0,00	100,00	97,37	4,79
Algeria	90,29	0,00	100,00	90,29	6,62
Nigeria	86,78	1,48	98,32	88,26	-7,13
Mali	0,14	84,58	0,17	84,72	14,18
Cote d'Ivoire	2,57	66,95	3,70	69,52	3,45
South Africa	0,00	53,51	0,00	53,51	8,70
Ghana	1,76	44,73	3,79	46,49	0,81
Benin	0,00	43,08	0,00	43,08	-7,52
Tanzania	0,00	31,55	0,00	31,55	10,48
Cameroon	1,11	29,37	3,64	30,48	0,46
Congo DR	0,00	24,72	0,00	24,72	-1,34
Uganda	0,00	15,28	0,00	15,28	-1,59
Cape Verde Islands	0,00	11,72	0,00	11,72	10,20
Burkina Faso	0,15	9,56	1,54	9,71	-6,45
Equatorial Guinea	0,00	2,62	0,00	2,62	0,59
Gabon	0,00	0,88	0,00	0,88	-3,37
Libya	0,00	0,71	0,00	0,71	-25,60
Madagascar	0,00	0,65	0,00	0,65	-1,62
Central African Republic	0,00	0,02	0,00	0,02	-0,07
Zambia	0,00	0,01	0,00	0,01	-4,96
Kenya	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-9,62
Guinea	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-9,40
Guinea-Bissau	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-8,23
Ethiopia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-7,48
Namibia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-4,03
Malawi	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-3,09
Liberia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-3,00
Rwanda	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-2,97
Zimbabwe	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-2,03
Angola	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-1,09
Mozambique	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,82
Congo	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,62
Sudan	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,42
Mauritania	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,42
Niger	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,17
Togo	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,10
Djibouti	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00

You can see that f.i. Egypt has in that case a probability of 20% to be seeded in the draw, in comparison with 19% when using the November ranking. As expected the effect on the seeding is only marginal.

I've simulated the play-off round by determining the 5 seeds and 5 unseeds in each simulation and perform a random draw to generate the 5 play-off pairings. Also which team in each pairing plays home in the first leg is result of a random draw.

The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for round 3) and in the final column the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD2):

team	qualify				diff Q
Senegal	67,50		[67,50]		1,68
Morocco	66,97		[66,97]		11,69
Algeria	65,57		[72,62]		1,93
Tunisia	60,73		[62,37]		0,33
Nigeria	52,67		[59,68]		-9,71
Egypt	42,48		[43,17]		10,89
Cote d'Ivoire	32,79		[47,17]		0,46
Mali	30,80		[36,36]		6,43
Ghana	18,85		[40,55]		-0,91
South Africa	17,97		[33,58]		3,13
Cameroon	12,06		[39,57]		-0,90
Benin	9,41		[21,84]		-3,37
Congo DR	6,04		[24,43]		-1,41
Tanzania	4,78		[15,15]		1,36
Uganda	3,93		[25,72]		-0,70
Burkina Faso	3,62		[37,28]		-3,32
Cape Verde Islands	2,76		[23,55]		2,38
Equatorial Guinea	0,60		[22,90]		0,16
Gabon	0,23		[26,14]		-0,91
Madagascar	0,12		[18,46]		-0,34
Libya	0,11		[15,49]		-5,06
Central African Republic	0,01		[50,00]		-0,01
Guinea	0,00		[0,00]		-2,72
Kenya	0,00		[0,00]		-2,31
Guinea-Bissau	0,00		[0,00]		-1,92
Ethiopia	0,00		[0,00]		-1,45
Zambia	0,00		[0,00]		-1,39
Namibia	0,00		[0,00]		-1,06
Liberia	0,00		[0,00]		-0,66
Rwanda	0,00		[0,00]		-0,56
Malawi	0,00		[0,00]		-0,44
Zimbabwe	0,00		[0,00]		-0,41
Angola	0,00		[0,00]		-0,29
Congo	0,00		[0,00]		-0,18
Mauritania	0,00		[0,00]		-0,13
Sudan	0,00		[0,00]		-0,11
Mozambique	0,00		[0,00]		-0,11
Niger	0,00		[0,00]		-0,04
Togo	0,00		[0,00]		-0,02
Djibouti	0,00		[0,00]		0,00

CONMEBOL

The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar as number one to four in the group or to qualify for the interconfederational play-off in June 2022 as group number 5. Also columns are given with the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points,  compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD9):

team	WC	diff		IPO	diff
Brazil	100,00	0,02		0,00	-0,01
Argentina	99,89	1,30		0,11	-0,95
Uruguay	70,58	-7,54		16,73	4,10
Colombia	66,84	5,33		21,64	0,97
Ecuador	40,84	9,38		29,75	4,78
Chile	10,45	5,93		14,54	5,90
Peru	7,64	-2,45		10,28	-3,06
Paraguay	2,62	-12,54		4,84	-12,23
Bolivia	1,06	0,90		1,90	1,27
Venezuela	0,08	-0,33		0,21	-0,77

CONCACAF

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th
Mexico	70,41	21,16	7,44	0,84	0,14	0,01	0,00	0,00
USA	20,13	42,80	28,51	6,61	1,53	0,32	0,09	0,01
Canada	9,14	30,84	39,72	13,33	4,57	1,81	0,51	0,08
Panama	0,20	2,75	12,18	35,49	24,53	14,87	7,34	2,64
Costa Rica	0,09	1,39	6,43	18,85	27,35	25,22	13,99	6,68
Jamaica	0,03	0,88	4,24	16,16	23,81	26,19	18,62	10,07
El Salvador	0,00	0,17	1,00	5,09	10,68	18,07	30,95	34,04
Honduras	0,00	0,01	0,48	3,63	7,39	13,51	28,50	46,48

The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup as number one to three in the group or to qualify for the interconfederational play-off in June 2022 as group number 4. Also columns are given with the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD3):

team	WC	diff		IPO	diff
Mexico	99,01	2,05		0,84	-1,36
USA	91,44	-0,50		6,61	1,09
Canada	79,70	16,70		13,33	-5,55
Panama	15,13	-5,44		35,49	9,96
Costa Rica	7,91	-2,53		18,85	3,27
Jamaica	5,15	1,20		16,16	9,46
El Salvador	1,17	-2,77		5,09	-3,96
Honduras	0,49	-8,71		3,63	-12,91

AFC

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Iran	78,55	20,72	0,64	0,08	0,01	0,00
Korea Republic	20,95	71,03	6,40	1,28	0,32	0,02
Iraq	0,13	4,06	42,81	30,36	15,22	7,42
Lebanon	0,36	3,08	34,44	34,45	20,34	7,33
United Arab Emirates	0,01	0,90	10,47	22,66	41,79	24,17
Syria	0,00	0,21	5,24	11,17	22,32	61,06
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Australia	50,95	29,39	15,48	4,02	0,16	0,00
Saudi Arabia	35,61	33,25	23,96	7,05	0,13	0,00
Japan	11,59	30,26	40,85	15,36	1,74	0,20
Oman	1,80	6,69	17,00	54,39	17,72	2,40
China PR	0,05	0,40	2,47	17,09	58,62	21,37
Vietnam	0,00	0,01	0,24	2,09	21,63	76,03

To qualify for the 5th place play-off and to win it. In square brackets to win it when qualified for this play-off. Also columns are given with the difference in probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD2):

team	qualify	diff Q		win		diff win
Iraq	42,81	-2,25		27,77	[64,87]	-4,55
Japan	40,85	13,65		23,77	[58,19]	10,61
Lebanon	34,44	25,28		10,93	[31,74]	7,48
Saudi Arabia	23,96	-6,83		9,57	[39,94]	0,31
Oman	17,00	-2,11		5,46	[32,12]	1,51
Australia	15,48	2,02		8,76	[56,59]	3,03
United Arab Emirates	10,47	-3,50		5,11	[48,81]	-2,25
Korea Republic	6,40	-13,02		4,98	[77,81]	-10,64
Syria	5,24	-3,99		2,34	[44,66]	-2,18
China PR	2,47	-3,72		0,72	[29,15]	-0,64
Iran	0,64	-2,52		0,52	[81,25]	-2,22
Vietnam	0,24	-3,01		0,07	[29,17]	-0,46

To qualify for the World Cup as number one or two in the group. In the final column the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in September (after MD2):

team	WC	diff
Iran	99,27	2,97
Korea Republic	91,98	18,05
Australia	80,34	-0,78
Saudi Arabia	68,86	18,67
Japan	41,85	-14,09
Oman	8,49	-1,46
Iraq	4,19	-17,16
Lebanon	3,44	1,48
United Arab Emirates	0,91	-3,33
China PR	0,45	-1,54
Syria	0,21	-2,01
Vietnam	0,01	-0,80

Pots for the final draw

These pots are based on the FIFA ranking after the March 2022 window when 30 participants are known. Pot 1 contains Qatar and the 7 top ranked participants, pot 2 contains the next 8 highest ranked participants, etc. The teams are ordered by ascending weighted average pot distribution. In the first column the probability to qualify for the World Cup (without IPO's of course) is given:

team	WC	pot1	pot2	pot3	pot4
Qatar	100,00	100,00	0	0	0
Brazil	100,00	100,00	0	0	0
Belgium	99,97	99,97	0	0	0
France	99,94	99,94	0	0	0
England	99,77	99,77	0	0	0
Argentina	99,89	96,46	3,43	0	0
Italy	93,74	93,74	0	0	0
Spain	84,82	57,44	27,38	0	0
----------------------------
Mexico	99,01	25,36	71,88	1,77	0
Portugal	95,74	24,25	71,49	0	0
Denmark	100,00	1,63	98,37	0	0
Germany	100,00	0	97,03	2,97	0
Netherlands	91,80	0,02	91,67	0,11	0
USA	91,44	1,30	72,32	17,82	0
Iran	99,27	0	0,73	96,91	1,63
Uruguay	70,58	0,09	57,33	13,16	0
----------------------------
Switzerland	64,49	0,01	63,78	0,70	0
Sweden	70,52	0	40,84	29,68	0
Colombia	66,84	0,02	46,57	20,25	0
Croatia	66,66	0	30,49	36,17	0
Korea Republic	91,98	0	0	43,34	48,64
Senegal	67,50	0	14,30	52,47	0,73
Australia	80,34	0	0	47,02	33,32
Algeria	65,57	0	3,73	54,62	7,22
----------------------------
Morocco	66,97	0	2,19	53,40	11,38
Canada	79,70	0	0	5,55	74,15
Tunisia	60,73	0	1,91	45,72	13,10
Russia	62,28	0	0	36,96	25,32
Saudi Arabia	68,86	0	0	1,00	67,86
Nigeria	52,67	0	0,10	21,43	31,14
Serbia	42,62	0	0,06	41,89	0,67
Japan	41,85	0	0,03	37,94	3,88
Egypt	42,48	0	0,03	11,40	31,05
Poland	31,59	0	0,71	30,86	0,02
Ecuador	40,84	0	0	0,77	40,07
Cote d'Ivoire	32,79	0	0,00	6,48	26,31
Wales	24,49	0	2,86	21,63	0
Mali	30,80	0	0	2,61	28,19
Czech Republic	17,87	0	0	16,77	1,10
Norway	19,42	0	0	5,96	13,46
Ghana	18,85	0	0	3,19	15,66
South Africa	17,97	0	0	0	17,97
Panama	15,13	0	0	0	15,13
Chile	10,45	0	0,45	10,00	0
Cameroon	12,06	0	0	4,19	7,87
Peru	7,64	0	0,29	7,35	0
Scotland	9,73	0	0	1,88	7,85
Benin	9,41	0	0	0	9,41
Oman	8,49	0	0	0	8,49
Costa Rica	7,91	0	0	0,75	7,16
Turkey	6,77	0	0	2,35	4,42
Ukraine	4,90	0	0,03	4,87	0
Austria	4,95	0	0	4,62	0,33
Congo DR	6,04	0	0	0	6,04
Jamaica	5,15	0	0	0,13	5,02
Tanzania	4,78	0	0	0	4,78
Iraq	4,19	0	0	0	4,19
Uganda	3,93	0	0	0	3,93
Burkina Faso	3,62	0	0	0,51	3,11
Lebanon	3,44	0	0	0	3,44
Romania	3,06	0	0	0,87	2,19
Paraguay	2,62	0	0	1,62	1,00
Cape Verde Islands	2,76	0	0	0,01	2,75
Bosnia-Herzegovina	1,88	0	0	0,07	1,81
Finland	1,41	0	0	0,02	1,39
Greece	1,14	0	0	0,18	0,96
El Salvador	1,17	0	0	0	1,17
Bolivia	1,06	0	0	0	1,06
United Arab Emirates	0,91	0	0	0	0,91
Equatorial Guinea	0,60	0	0	0	0,60
Honduras	0,49	0	0	0	0,49
China PR	0,45	0	0	0	0,45
Gabon	0,23	0	0	0	0,23
Syria	0,21	0	0	0	0,21
Israel	0,15	0	0	0	0,15
North Macedonia	0,14	0	0	0	0,14
Madagascar	0,12	0	0	0	0,12
Libya	0,11	0	0	0	0,11
Armenia	0,10	0	0	0	0,10
Venezuela	0,08	0	0	0,03	0,05
Albania	0,04	0	0	0	0,04
Central African Republic	0,01	0	0	0	0,01
Iceland	0,01	0	0	0	0,01
Vietnam	0,01	0	0	0	0,01
Andorra	0,00	0	0	0	0
Angola	0,00	0	0	0	0
Azerbaijan	0,00	0	0	0	0
Belarus	0,00	0	0	0	0
Bulgaria	0,00	0	0	0	0
Comoros	0,00	0	0	0	0
Congo	0,00	0	0	0	0
Cyprus	0,00	0	0	0	0
Djibouti	0,00	0	0	0	0
Estonia	0,00	0	0	0	0
Ethiopia	0,00	0	0	0	0
Faroe Islands	0,00	0	0	0	0
Gambia	0,00	0	0	0	0
Georgia	0,00	0	0	0	0
Gibraltar	0,00	0	0	0	0
Guinea	0,00	0	0	0	0
Guinea-Bissau	0,00	0	0	0	0
Hungary	0,00	0	0	0	0
Kazakhstan	0,00	0	0	0	0
Kenya	0,00	0	0	0	0
Kosovo	0,00	0	0	0	0
Latvia	0,00	0	0	0	0
Liberia	0,00	0	0	0	0
Liechtenstein	0,00	0	0	0	0
Lithuania	0,00	0	0	0	0
Luxembourg	0,00	0	0	0	0
Malawi	0,00	0	0	0	0
Malta	0,00	0	0	0	0
Mauritania	0,00	0	0	0	0
Moldova	0,00	0	0	0	0
Montenegro	0,00	0	0	0	0
Mozambique	0,00	0	0	0	0
Namibia	0,00	0	0	0	0
Niger	0,00	0	0	0	0
Northern Ireland	0,00	0	0	0	0
Republic of Ireland	0,00	0	0	0	0
Rwanda	0,00	0	0	0	0
San Marino	0,00	0	0	0	0
Sierra Leone	0,00	0	0	0	0
Slovakia	0,00	0	0	0	0
Slovenia	0,00	0	0	0	0
Sudan	0,00	0	0	0	0
Togo	0,00	0	0	0	0
Zambia	0,00	0	0	0	0
Zimbabwe	0,00	0	0	0	0

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About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.