World Cup qualification simulations (27 November 2021)

The November window has been played. The decisions in the UEFA and CAF qualification groups are known now. Furthermore, yesterday the draw for the UEFA play-offs and the pairing of confederations in the interconfederational play-offs was made.

In two days time also the draw for the OFC qualification groups will be made. It seems the complete qualification for Oceania will be staged in Qatar in the March 2022 window.

Only the draw date for the CAF play-offs, said to be revealed last Thursday, is not made public yet. Now also the date of January 26th (in the middle of AFCON 2022) circulates. This date is important because it indicates which FIFA ranking will be used to seed the ten remaining teams. By the way, it's complete nonsense to compile a ranking while in the midst of a continental final tournament.

Just like in 2018 WC qualification CAF can't perform a straightforward final round draw with a set draw date and published procedures in advance. The powers that be in Africa still have a firm grasp on CAF decisions and are obviously still able to manipulate such decisions for their own good. This time it seems Egypt tries to get seeded by all means, not to much avail as you will read further on. 

Also there are ongoing investigations into possible match-fixing against South Africa (vs. Ghana) and into possible substitution rule violation against Benin (vs. Congo DR) on the last match day.  So I fear the last word isn't said about this at all. Anyway, sigh...

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The simulations include all scheduled World Cup qualifiers (including the AFC number 5 PO and the IPO's in June 2022), the AFCON 2021 and all currently scheduled friendlies (including the Arab Cup).

UEFA

The ten group winners are Serbia, Spain, Switzerland, France, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, Croatia, England and Germany.

The play-offs were drawn yesterday. All matches will be one-off affairs with the semi finals played on March 24th and the finals on March 29th:

Path A:

Scotland - Ukraine

Wales - Austria

The winner of Wales/Austria plays the path A final at home.

Path B:

Russia - Poland

Sweden - Czech Republic

The winner of Russia/Poland plays the path B final at home.

Path C:

Italy - North Macedonia

Portugal - Turkey

The winner of Portugal/Turkey plays the path C final at home.

So the current or the previous UEFA EURO champion won't be present in Qatar. Indeed this draw has proven what kind of minefield these play-offs can be. One should try their hardest to avoid them.

The probability to win a play-off semi-final. In the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD8).

team	win SF		diff
Italy	97,53		75,74
Portugal	92,64		81,84
Wales	85,01		37,80
Russia	75,65		38,11
Sweden	74,89		29,72
Scotland	68,40		37,25
Ukraine	31,60		21,79
Czech Republic	25,11		-10,51
Poland	24,35		-48,32
Austria	14,99		0,66
Turkey	7,36		-9,79
North Macedonia	2,47		1,57
Serbia	0,00		-70,34
Switzerland	0,00		-67,05
Spain	0,00		-40,08
Croatia	0,00		-28,60
Norway	0,00		-17,96
Romania	0,00		-9,99
Netherlands	0,00		-7,96
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0,00		-5,21
Finland	0,00		-3,44
Greece	0,00		-3,38
Israel	0,00		-0,51
England	0,00		-0,44
Armenia	0,00		-0,38
Albania	0,00		-0,23
Belgium	0,00		-0,18
France	0,00		-0,09
Iceland	0,00		-0,02

The probability to win a play-off final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for a final. Also in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD8).

team	win F			diff
Wales	70,03	[82,38]		45,72
Portugal	66,74	[72,04]		59,10
Russia	51,26	[67,76]		36,05
Italy	31,25	[32,04]		14,18
Sweden	21,73	[29,02]		-2,89
Poland	17,38	[71,38]		-13,69
Austria	11,27	[75,18]		6,32
Scotland	10,89	[15,92]		1,16
Czech Republic	9,63	[38,35]		-8,24
Ukraine	7,81	[24,72]		2,92
Turkey	1,84	[25,00]		-4,37
North Macedonia	0,17	[6,88]		0,03
Switzerland	0,00	[0,00]		-41,16
Serbia	0,00	[0,00]		-30,72
Spain	0,00	[0,00]		-30,72
Croatia	0,00	[0,00]		-13,73
Norway	0,00	[0,00]		-7,18
Netherlands	0,00	[0,00]		-4,60
Romania	0,00	[0,00]		-3,06
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0,00	[0,00]		-1,84
Finland	0,00	[0,00]		-1,33
Greece	0,00	[0,00]		-1,14
England	0,00	[0,00]		-0,29
Israel	0,00	[0,00]		-0,15
Belgium	0,00	[0,00]		-0,15
Armenia	0,00	[0,00]		-0,10
France	0,00	[0,00]		-0,07
Albania	0,00	[0,00]		-0,04
Iceland	0,00	[0,00]		-0,01

Finally the probability to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar ('Qtot'), composed of the probabilities to become a group winner ('nr1') and to win a play-off ('PO'). Also in the last column the difference in Qtot in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD8).

team	nr1	PO	Qtot		diff
Denmark	100,00	0,00	100,00		0,00
Germany	100,00	0,00	100,00		0,00
Belgium	100,00	0,00	100,00		0,03
France	100,00	0,00	100,00		0,06
England	100,00	0,00	100,00		0,23
Netherlands	100,00	0,00	100,00		8,20
Spain	100,00	0,00	100,00		15,18
Croatia	100,00	0,00	100,00		33,34
Switzerland	100,00	0,00	100,00		35,51
Serbia	100,00	0,00	100,00		57,38
Wales	0,00	70,03	70,03		45,54
Portugal	0,00	66,74	66,74		-29,00
Russia	0,00	51,26	51,26		-11,02
Italy	0,00	31,25	31,25		-62,49
Sweden	0,00	21,73	21,73		-48,79
Poland	0,00	17,38	17,38		-14,21
Austria	0,00	11,27	11,27		6,32
Scotland	0,00	10,89	10,89		1,16
Czech Republic	0,00	9,63	9,63		-8,24
Ukraine	0,00	7,81	7,81		2,91
Turkey	0,00	1,84	1,84		-4,93
North Macedonia	0,00	0,17	0,17		0,03
Norway	0,00	0,00	0,00		-19,42
Romania	0,00	0,00	0,00		-3,06
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0,00	0,00	0,00		-1,88
Finland	0,00	0,00	0,00		-1,41
Greece	0,00	0,00	0,00		-1,14
Israel	0,00	0,00	0,00		-0,15
Armenia	0,00	0,00	0,00		-0,10
Albania	0,00	0,00	0,00		-0,04
Iceland	0,00	0,00	0,00		-0,01

CAF

The ten group winners are Algeria, Tunisia, Nigeria, Cameroon, Mali, Egypt, Ghana, Senegal, Morocco and Congo DR. These teams will be drawn in 5 play-offs with the winner qualifying for Qatar. In the draw the top 5 teams in the FIFA ranking will be seeded and thus can't be drawn against each other. The FIFA ranking to use will depend on when the draw is conducted. The current November ranking shows that Senegal, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria and Nigeria would be seeded. I've made an extra set of simulations to research the effect of using the ranking of January 26th as the seeding ranking. The round of 16 knock-out matches in the AFCON 2022 in Cameroon are just played then.

So, first the qualification for the play-off round with seeding based on the November 2021 ranking. Below you see the probabilities to qualify as seeded or unseeded, the probability to be seeded given that a team is a group winner and the total probability to qualify for the play-offs. Teams are ordered by this column. Also in the last column the difference in total qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD4).

team	seeded	unseeded	%seeded	total	diff Total
Senegal	100,00	0,00	100,00	100,00	0,00
Morocco	100,00	0,00	100,00	100,00	0,00
Tunisia	100,00	0,00	100,00	100,00	2,63
Algeria	100,00	0,00	100,00	100,00	9,71
Nigeria	100,00	0,00	100,00	100,00	11,74
Egypt	0,00	100,00	0,00	100,00	1,59
Mali	0,00	100,00	0,00	100,00	15,28
Ghana	0,00	100,00	0,00	100,00	53,51
Cameroon	0,00	100,00	0,00	100,00	69,52
Congo DR	0,00	100,00	0,00	100,00	75,28
Cote d'Ivoire	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-69,52
South Africa	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-53,51
Benin	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-43,08
Tanzania	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-31,55
Uganda	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-15,28
Cape Verde Islands	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-11,72
Burkina Faso	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-9,71
Equatorial Guinea	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-2,62
Gabon	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,88
Libya	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,71
Madagascar	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,65
Central African Republic	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,02
Zambia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,01

If based on the ranking after January 26th:

team	seeded	unseeded	%seeded	total	diff Total
Senegal	99,99	0,01	99,99	100,00	0,00
Morocco	98,40	1,60	98,40	100,00	0,00
Algeria	95,13	4,87	95,13	100,00	9,71
Tunisia	90,32	9,68	90,32	100,00	2,63
Nigeria	60,33	39,67	60,33	100,00	11,74
Egypt	26,22	73,78	26,22	100,00	1,59
Cameroon	19,19	80,81	19,19	100,00	69,52
Ghana	5,36	94,64	5,36	100,00	53,51
Mali	5,06	94,94	5,06	100,00	15,28
Congo DR	0,00	100,00	0,00	100,00	75,28
Cote d'Ivoire	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-69,52
South Africa	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-53,51
Benin	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-43,08
Tanzania	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-31,55
Uganda	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-15,28
Cape Verde Islands	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-11,72
Burkina Faso	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-9,71
Equatorial Guinea	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-2,62
Gabon	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,88
Libya	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,71
Madagascar	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,65
Central African Republic	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,02
Zambia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	-0,01

It could help Egypt a bit, all this, but their %seeded will be no higher than 26%.

I've simulated the play-off round by determining the 5 seeds and 5 unseeds in each simulation and perform a random draw to generate the 5 play-off pairings (based on the November ranking). Also which team in each pairing plays home in the first leg is result of a random draw.

The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for round 3) and in the final column the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD4):

team	qualify		diff Q
Algeria	70,05		4,48
Morocco	66,51		-0,46
Senegal	63,60		-3,90
Nigeria	56,20		3,53
Tunisia	56,03		-4,70
Egypt	41,97		-0,51
Cameroon	40,72		28,66
Mali	39,96		9,16
Ghana	38,08		19,23
Congo DR	26,88		20,84
Cote d'Ivoire	0,00		-32,79
South Africa	0,00		-17,97
Benin	0,00		-9,41
Tanzania	0,00		-4,78
Uganda	0,00		-3,93
Burkina Faso	0,00		-3,62
Cape Verde Islands	0,00		-2,76
Equatorial Guinea	0,00		-0,60
Gabon	0,00		-0,23
Madagascar	0,00		-0,12
Libya	0,00		-0,11
Central African Republic	0,00		-0,01

OFC

Until the qualification schedule for OFC is drawn and can be properly simulated I assume in these simulations that New Zealand will be their qualifier for the IPO.

CONMEBOL

The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar as number one to four in the group or to qualify as group number 5 for the interconfederational play-off against Asia's number 5 in June 2022. Also columns are given with the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD12):

team	WC	diff		IPO	diff
Brazil	100,00	0,00		0,00	0,00
Argentina	100,00	0,11		0,00	-0,11
Ecuador	93,58	52,74		5,94	-23,81
Colombia	48,05	-18,79		26,82	5,18
Peru	26,03	18,39		22,62	12,34
Uruguay	25,28	-45,30		27,35	10,62
Chile	5,34	-5,11		12,27	-2,27
Bolivia	1,50	0,44		3,83	1,93
Paraguay	0,22	-2,40		1,17	-3,67
Venezuela	0,00	-0,08		0,00	-0,21

CONCACAF

The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup as number one to three in the group or to qualify as group number 4 for the interconfederational play-off against New Zealand in June 2022. Also columns are given with the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD6):

team	WC	diff		IPO	diff
USA	93,29	1,85		6,36	-0,25
Mexico	93,25	-5,76		5,93	5,09
Canada	89,09	9,39		9,64	-3,69
Panama	21,36	6,23		57,49	22,00
Costa Rica	1,92	-5,99		11,33	-7,52
Jamaica	1,09	-4,06		8,94	-7,22
El Salvador	0,00	-1,17		0,25	-4,84
Honduras	0,00	-0,49		0,06	-3,57

AFC

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Iran	79,61	20,38	0,01	0,00	0,00	0,00
Korea Republic	20,39	79,36	0,24	0,01	0,00	0,00
United Arab Emirates	0,00	0,19	37,19	35,04	19,96	7,62
Iraq	0,00	0,00	35,42	23,91	26,51	14,16
Lebanon	0,00	0,07	19,74	28,61	32,94	18,64
Syria	0,00	0,00	7,40	12,43	20,59	59,58
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Saudi Arabia	58,02	27,77	13,49	0,72	0,00	0,00
Japan	27,97	45,44	25,63	0,93	0,03	0,00
Australia	13,97	26,10	54,23	5,66	0,04	0,00
Oman	0,04	0,67	6,16	68,19	24,60	0,34
China PR	0,00	0,02	0,49	24,32	69,82	5,35
Vietnam	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,18	5,51	94,31

To qualify for the 5th place play-off and to win it. In square brackets to win it when qualified for this play-off. Also columns are given with the difference in probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD4):

team	qualify	diff Q		win		diff win
Australia	54,23	38,75		33,49	[61,76]	24,73
United Arab Emirates	37,19	26,72		14,63	[39,34]	9,52
Iraq	35,42	-7,39		19,64	[55,45]	-8,13
Japan	25,63	-15,22		16,44	[64,14]	-7,33
Lebanon	19,74	-14,70		5,16	[26,14]	-5,77
Saudi Arabia	13,49	-10,47		5,46	[40,47]	-4,11
Syria	7,40	2,16		2,63	[35,54]	0,29
Oman	6,16	-10,84		2,26	[36,69]	-3,20
China PR	0,49	-1,98		0,10	[20,41]	-0,62
Korea Republic	0,24	-6,16		0,18	[75,00]	-4,80
Iran	0,01	-0,63		0,01	[100,00]	-0,51
Vietnam	0,00	-0,24		0,00	[00,00]	-0,07

To qualify for the World Cup, composed of the chance to qualify as number one or two in the group (column Nr1-2) or via the route via the AFC number 5 play-off plus IPO against the CONMEBOL number 5 (column IPO). In the final column the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD4):

team	Qtot	Nr1-2	IPO		diff Q
Iran	99,99	99,99	0,00		0,72
Korea Republic	99,78	99,75	0,03		7,80
Saudi Arabia	86,74	85,79	0,95		17,88
Japan	77,18	73,41	3,77		35,33
Australia	47,66	40,07	7,59		-32,68
Iraq	2,73	0,00	2,73		-1,46
United Arab Emirates	1,82	0,19	1,63		0,91
Oman	1,03	0,71	0,32		-7,46
Lebanon	0,35	0,07	0,28		-3,09
Syria	0,23	0,00	0,23		0,02
China PR	0,02	0,02	0,00		-0,43
Vietnam	0,00	0,00	0,00		-0,01

Interconfederational play-offs

To qualify for an IPO and to win it. In square brackets to win it when qualified for this play-off. Once again, in this simulation New Zealand is the assumed OFC qualifier in the IPO's.

team	IPO		Win IPO
Panama	57,49		42,38	[73,72]
New Zealand	100,00		23,38	[23,38]
Uruguay	27,35		23,03	[84,20]
Colombia	26,82		22,76	[84,86]
Peru	22,62		18,37	[81,21]
Chile	12,27		9,91	[80,77]
Costa Rica	11,33		8,71	[76,88]
Canada	9,64		7,78	[80,71]
Australia	33,49		7,59	[22,66]
Jamaica	8,94		6,64	[74,27]
USA	6,36		5,68	[89,31]
Mexico	5,93		5,19	[87,52]
Ecuador	5,94		4,59	[77,27]
Japan	16,44		3,77	[22,93]
Bolivia	3,83		2,92	[76,24]
Iraq	19,64		2,73	[13,90]
United Arab Emirates	14,63		1,63	[11,14]
Saudi Arabia	5,46		0,95	[17,40]
Paraguay	1,17		0,89	[76,07]
Oman	2,26		0,32	[14,16]
Lebanon	5,16		0,28	[05,43]
Syria	2,63		0,23	[08,75]
El Salvador	0,25		0,19	[76,00]
Honduras	0,06		0,05	[83,33]
Korea Republic	0,18		0,03	[16,67]
China PR	0,10		0,00	[00,00]
Iran	0,01		0,00	[00,00]
Brazil	0,00		0,00	[00,00]
Argentina	0,00		0,00	[00,00]
Venezuela	0,00		0,00	[00,00]
Vietnam	0,00		0,00	[00,00]

Pots for the final draw

These pots are based on the FIFA ranking after the March 2022 window when 30 participants are known. Pot 1 contains Qatar and the 7 top ranked participants, pot 2 contains the next 8 highest ranked participants, etc. The teams are ordered by ascending weighted average pot distribution. In the first column the probability to qualify for the World Cup (now including IPO's) is given:

team	WC	pot1	pot2	pot3	pot4
Qatar	100,00	100,00	0	0	0
Brazil	100,00	100,00	0	0	0
Belgium	100,00	100,00	0	0	0
France	100,00	100,00	0	0	0
England	100,00	100,00	0	0	0
Argentina	100,00	100,00	0	0	0
Spain	100,00	100,00	0	0	0
Portugal	66,74	56,53	10,21	0	0
----------------------------
Denmark	100,00	0,65	99,35	0	0
Mexico	98,44	6,39	89,05	3,00	0
Germany	100,00	0	100,00	0	0
Netherlands	100,00	0	100,00	0	0
Switzerland	100,00	0	100,00	0	0
USA	98,97	5,18	90,32	3,47	0
Croatia	100,00	0	92,30	7,70	0
Iran	99,99	0	0,76	98,22	1,01
----------------------------
Serbia	100,00	0	0	98,38	1,62
Italy	31,25	31,25	0	0	0
Colombia	70,81	0	47,91	22,90	0
Korea Republic	99,78	0	0	39,02	60,76
Japan	77,18	0	0,04	70,58	6,56
Ecuador	98,17	0	0	0,55	97,62
Canada	96,87	0	0	4,40	92,47
Wales	70,03	0	8,55	61,48	0
----------------------------
Senegal	63,60	0	16,16	45,95	1,49
Algeria	70,05	0	3,86	47,75	18,44
Morocco	66,51	0	6,82	49,37	10,32
Saudi Arabia	86,74	0	0	0,19	86,55
Uruguay	48,31	0	26,52	21,79	0
Tunisia	56,03	0	1,13	30,34	24,56
Panama	63,74	0	0	0	63,74
Nigeria	56,20	0	0,04	14,93	41,23
Peru	44,40	0	0,76	43,47	0,17
Russia	51,26	0	0	26,17	25,09
Australia	47,66	0	0	10,05	37,61
Egypt	41,97	0	0,01	7,32	34,64
Cameroon	40,72	0	0	11,57	29,15
Mali	39,96	0	0	2,43	37,53
Ghana	38,08	0	0	2,29	35,79
Sweden	21,73	0	6,01	15,72	0
Congo DR	26,88	0	0	0	26,88
New Zealand	23,38	0	0	0	23,38
Poland	17,38	0	0	17,37	0,01
Chile	15,25	0	0,20	15,00	0,05
Austria	11,27	0	0	10,05	1,22
Czech Republic	9,63	0	0	7,94	1,69
Scotland	10,89	0	0	1,83	9,06
Costa Rica	10,63	0	0	0,11	10,52
Ukraine	7,81	0	0	7,80	0,01
Jamaica	7,73	0	0	0	7,73
Bolivia	4,42	0	0	0	4,42
Iraq	2,73	0	0	0	2,73
Turkey	1,84	0	0	0,70	1,14
United Arab Emirates	1,82	0	0	0	1,82
Paraguay	1,11	0	0	0,16	0,95
Oman	1,03	0	0	0	1,03
Lebanon	0,35	0	0	0	0,35
Syria	0,23	0	0	0	0,23
El Salvador	0,19	0	0	0	0,19
North Macedonia	0,17	0	0	0	0,17
Honduras	0,05	0	0	0	0,05
China PR	0,02	0	0	0	0,02

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About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.