African Cup of Nations 2022 simulations (December 2021)

The African Cup of Nations 2021 was initially scheduled for June 2021 in Cameroon, but soon moved back to January 2021 due to unfavourable climatic conditions in this time of the year. Then the COVID-19 pandemic forced a postponement of this tournament to January 2022. 

Now it  seems ready to be played. Proper preparation for the participating teams is still hampered though by COVID-19: most teams stay in homeland training camps and only a few preparatory friendlies are played next week before the continental showpiece kicks off on Sunday January 9th in Cameroon.

It has the same format as the AFCON 2019 in Egypt with 24 teams in 6 groups of 4 and a Round of 16 for which the 6 group numbers one and two qualify plus the 4 best group numbers three.

The complete tournament schedule up until the final on February 6th is simulated. Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

First the group stage with teams ordered by ascending average group position:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Cameroon	57,68	28,22	10,99	3,11
Burkina Faso	25,93	33,23	26,48	14,36
Cape Verde Islands	12,61	26,15	38,66	22,58
Ethiopia	3,78	12,40	23,87	59,95
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Senegal	84,43	12,46	2,52	0,59
Guinea	9,16	39,41	32,26	19,17
Zimbabwe	3,86	28,23	36,91	31,00
Malawi	2,55	19,90	28,31	49,24
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Morocco	75,38	19,52	4,71	0,39
Ghana	20,41	57,01	18,38	4,20
Gabon	3,87	18,95	47,07	30,11
Comoros	0,34	4,52	29,84	65,30
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Egypt	52,43	31,51	12,80	3,26
Nigeria	39,59	41,73	15,15	3,53
Guinea-Bissau	5,50	17,16	44,59	32,75
Sudan	2,48	9,60	27,46	60,46
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Algeria	63,97	30,26	5,26	0,51
Cote d'Ivoire	31,16	45,15	19,67	4,02
Equatorial Guinea	3,91	18,11	47,46	30,52
Sierra Leone	0,96	6,48	27,61	64,95
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Tunisia	53,53	32,20	10,36	3,91
Mali	39,34	43,92	12,79	3,95
Mauritania	3,36	11,17	42,78	42,69
Gambia	3,77	12,71	34,07	49,45

Then the group numbers three. You see the probability of each team to qualify as one of the four best numbers three for the Round of 16. In square brackets this probability, given the chance to become group number three.

Gabon	35,09		[74,55]
Guinea-Bissau	25,59		[57,39]
Cape Verde Islands	25,48		[65,91]
Gambia	25,20		[73,97]
Equatorial Guinea	25,19		[53,08]
Mauritania	24,54		[57,36]
Guinea	23,20		[71,92]
Burkina Faso	22,58		[85,27]
Zimbabwe	19,39		[52,53]
Malawi	17,71		[62,56]
Sudan	17,59		[64,06]
Sierra Leone	16,47		[59,65]
Cote d'Ivoire	15,54		[79,00]
Ethiopia	14,97		[62,71]
Ghana	13,96		[75,95]
Nigeria	13,72		[90,56]
Comoros	12,01		[40,25]
Egypt	11,50		[89,84]
Mali	10,11		[79,05]
Cameroon	9,94		[90,45]
Tunisia	8,70		[83,98]
Algeria	4,83		[91,83]
Morocco	4,43		[94,06]
Senegal	2,26		[89,68]

The total probability to qualify for the round of 16. 

Morocco	99,33
Senegal	99,15
Algeria	99,06
Cameroon	95,84
Egypt	95,44
Nigeria	95,04
Tunisia	94,43
Mali	93,37
Cote d'Ivoire	91,85
Ghana	91,38
Burkina Faso	81,74
Guinea	71,77
Cape Verde Islands	64,24
Gabon	57,91
Zimbabwe	51,48
Guinea-Bissau	48,25
Equatorial Guinea	47,21
Gambia	41,68
Malawi	40,16
Mauritania	39,07
Ethiopia	31,15
Sudan	29,67
Sierra Leone	23,91
Comoros	16,87

The probability to qualify for the quarter finals. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the round of 16.

Morocco	87,72		[88,31]
Senegal	81,80		[82,50]
Algeria	81,57		[82,34]
Cameroon	77,31		[80,67]
Mali	58,86		[63,04]
Tunisia	58,36		[61,80]
Egypt	55,72		[58,38]
Ghana	53,45		[58,49]
Cote d'Ivoire	48,57		[52,88]
Nigeria	48,01		[50,52]
Burkina Faso	38,45		[47,04]
Cape Verde Islands	20,78		[32,35]
Guinea	18,17		[25,32]
Gabon	11,72		[20,24]
Gambia	10,08		[24,18]
Equatorial Guinea	9,17		[19,42]
Mauritania	8,84		[22,63]
Guinea-Bissau	7,72		[16,00]
Zimbabwe	7,19		[13,97]
Ethiopia	5,19		[16,66]
Malawi	4,33		[10,78]
Sudan	2,82		[9,50]
Sierra Leone	2,71		[11,33]
Comoros	1,46		[8,65]

The probability to qualify for the semi finals. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the quarter finals.

Cameroon	59,24		[76,63]
Algeria	59,10		[72,45]
Morocco	49,05		[55,92]
Senegal	46,18		[56,45]
Egypt	30,78		[55,24]
Tunisia	25,84		[44,28]
Nigeria	24,76		[51,57]
Mali	24,68		[41,93]
Cote d'Ivoire	21,42		[44,10]
Ghana	19,44		[36,37]
Burkina Faso	18,43		[47,93]
Cape Verde Islands	6,72		[32,34]
Guinea	2,90		[15,96]
Equatorial Guinea	2,06		[22,46]
Gabon	2,00		[17,06]
Gambia	1,46		[14,48]
Guinea-Bissau	1,38		[17,88]
Mauritania	1,27		[14,37]
Ethiopia	0,99		[19,08]
Zimbabwe	0,78		[10,85]
Sierra Leone	0,53		[19,56]
Malawi	0,48		[11,09]
Sudan	0,37		[13,12]
Comoros	0,14		[9,59]

The probability to qualify for the final. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the semi finals.

Algeria	44,53		[75,35]
Morocco	33,82		[68,95]
Cameroon	27,65		[46,67]
Senegal	26,38		[57,12]
Egypt	13,32		[43,27]
Nigeria	10,88		[43,94]
Cote d'Ivoire	10,53		[49,16]
Tunisia	10,10		[39,09]
Mali	8,49		[34,40]
Ghana	6,64		[34,16]
Burkina Faso	4,53		[24,58]
Cape Verde Islands	1,21		[18,01]
Equatorial Guinea	0,44		[21,36]
Guinea	0,37		[12,76]
Gabon	0,31		[15,50]
Guinea-Bissau	0,25		[18,12]
Mauritania	0,11		[8,66]
Ethiopia	0,11		[11,11]
Gambia	0,09		[6,16]
Sierra Leone	0,08		[15,09]
Zimbabwe	0,05		[6,41]
Sudan	0,05		[13,51]
Malawi	0,03		[6,25]
Comoros	0,03		[21,43]

The probability to win the Africa Cup. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the final.

Algeria	31,06		[69,75]
Morocco	21,73		[64,25]
Cameroon	15,86		[57,36]
Senegal	10,17		[38,55]
Egypt	4,51		[33,86]
Cote d'Ivoire	3,75		[35,61]
Nigeria	3,59		[33,00]
Tunisia	3,45		[34,16]
Mali	2,39		[28,15]
Ghana	1,57		[23,64]
Burkina Faso	1,40		[30,91]
Cape Verde Islands	0,20		[16,53]
Gabon	0,08		[25,81]
Guinea	0,06		[16,22]
Equatorial Guinea	0,05		[11,36]
Guinea-Bissau	0,05		[20,00]
Mauritania	0,02		[18,18]
Sierra Leone	0,02		[25,00]
Malawi	0,02		[66,67]
Gambia	0,01		[11,11]
Sudan	0,01		[20,00]
Ethiopia	0,00		[0,00]
Zimbabwe	0,00		[0,00]
Comoros	0,00		[0,00]

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.