World Cup qualification simulations (5 February 2022)

The January window and all but the final weekend in the AFCON 2022 has been played. Compared to the last simulations made in November last year the following changes in the simulated match schedule are made:

• for UEFA all currently scheduled friendlies in the March window are included;
• for CAF the pairing of the final round of 5 home-and-away play-offs in March was drawn, using the November 2021 ranking as seeding ranking;
• for OFC the complete qualification match schedule is known now. All qualifiers will be played in Doha in March to decide the OFC-representative in the IPO's in June. Unfortunately Tonga had to withdraw for their preliminary play-off against the Cook Islands, due to the aftermath of the recent volcanic eruption in their territory. Cook Islands is therefore placed in group A and they will hopefully play their first competitive matches since September 2015;
• AFC, CONCACAF and CONMEBOL played two or three match days of qualifiers. In Asia Iran and South Korea qualified for Qatar while in the other group Japan, Saudi Arabia and Australia battle it out. In CONCACAF Canada was on a roll and won their 3 matches. They are all but qualified. In South America Ecuador and Uruguay made good progress towards direct qualification. Colombia sort of ruined their chances. Even for the IPO-berth Peru seems the first candidate.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. 

The simulations include all scheduled remaining World Cup qualifiers (including the AFC number 5 PO and the IPO's in June 2022), the remainder of the AFCON 2022 and all currently scheduled friendlies.

UEFA

The ten group winners are Serbia, Spain, Switzerland, France, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, Croatia, England and Germany. The play-offs were drawn in November. All matches will be one-off affairs with the semi finals played on March 24th and the finals on March 29th:

Path A:

Scotland - Ukraine

Wales - Austria

The winner of Wales/Austria plays the path A final at home.

Path B:

Russia - Poland

Sweden - Czech Republic

The winner of Russia/Poland plays the path B final at home.

Path C:

Italy - North Macedonia

Portugal - Turkey

The winner of Portugal/Turkey plays the path C final at home.

First the probability to win a play-off semi-final. In the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in November (after the group stage and PO-draw).

team	win SF		diff
Italy	97,78		0,21
Portugal	92,58		-0,07
Wales	85,25		-0,05
Russia	75,82		-0,54
Sweden	75,62		0,08
Scotland	68,10		0,04
Ukraine	31,90		-0,04
Czech Republic	24,38		-0,08
Poland	24,18		0,54
Austria	14,75		0,05
Turkey	7,42		0,07
North Macedonia	2,22		-0,21

The probability to win a play-off final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for a final. Also in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in November (after the group stage and PO-draw).

team	win F			diff
Wales	70,40	[82,58]		0,34
Portugal	66,36	[71,68]		-0,26
Russia	51,80	[68,32]		0,31
Italy	31,43	[32,14]		0,01
Sweden	20,90	[27,64]		-0,97
Poland	17,80	[73,61]		0,37
Austria	11,08	[75,12]		-0,13
Scotland	10,59	[15,55]		-0,54
Czech Republic	9,50	[38,97]		0,29
Ukraine	7,93	[24,86]		0,33
Turkey	2,05	[27,63]		0,26
North Macedonia	0,16	[7,21]		-0,01

Finally the probability to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar ('Qtot'), composed of the probabilities to become a group winner ('nr1') and to win a play-off ('PO'). Also in the last column the difference in Qtot in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in November (after the group stage and PO-draw).

team	nr1	PO	Qtot		diff
Denmark	100,00	0,00	100,00		0,00
Germany	100,00	0,00	100,00		0,00
Belgium	100,00	0,00	100,00		0,00
France	100,00	0,00	100,00		0,00
England	100,00	0,00	100,00		0,00
Netherlands	100,00	0,00	100,00		0,00
Spain	100,00	0,00	100,00		0,00
Croatia	100,00	0,00	100,00		0,00
Switzerland	100,00	0,00	100,00		0,00
Serbia	100,00	0,00	100,00		0,00
Wales	0,00	70,40	70,40		0,34
Portugal	0,00	66,36	66,36		-0,26
Russia	0,00	51,80	51,80		0,31
Italy	0,00	31,43	31,43		0,01
Sweden	0,00	20,90	20,90		-0,97
Poland	0,00	17,80	17,80		0,37
Austria	0,00	11,08	11,08		-0,13
Scotland	0,00	10,59	10,59		-0,54
Czech Republic	0,00	9,50	9,50		0,29
Ukraine	0,00	7,93	7,93		0,33
Turkey	0,00	2,05	2,05		0,26
North Macedonia	0,00	0,16	0,16		-0,01

CAF

The third and final qualification round consists of these 5 home-and-away play-offs:

Egypt - Senegal: juicy repeat of the AFCON-final tomorrow;

Cameroon - Algeria: can Algeria recover from a disastrous group stage, Cameroon goes for third place today;

Ghana - Nigeria: Ghana could not get out of the group, Nigeria eliminated in the round of 16;

Congo DR - Morocco: Congo DR could not get out of the group, Morocco eliminated in the quarter finals;

Mali - Tunisia: Mali eliminated in the round of 16, Tunisia in the quarter finals.

The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup and in the final column the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in November (after the group stage):

team	qualify		diff Q
Morocco	69,91		-0,69
Mali	64,19		25,74
Nigeria	57,40		2,83
Egypt	54,36		11,12
Cameroon	50,99		12,34
Algeria	49,01		-24,86
Senegal	45,64		-17,48
Ghana	42,60		5,97
Tunisia	35,81		-18,44
Congo DR	30,09		3,47

OFC

The 8 participating Oceania teams play in two groups of four. The top 2 of each group goes to a one-off semi final and the winners play the one-off final to determine the OFC IPO-participant. They will play in June against the CONCACAF number 4 for a berth in Qatar.

First the groups:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Tahiti	37,60	32,85	28,77	0,78
Vanuatu	33,51	33,14	32,05	1,30
Solomon Islands	28,86	33,74	36,30	1,10
Cook Islands	0,03	0,27	2,88	96,82
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Zealand	76,29	16,85	5,35	1,51
New Caledonia	12,27	36,91	29,68	21,14
Fiji	7,86	28,31	34,61	29,22
Papua New Guinea	3,58	17,93	30,36	48,13

The probability to qualify for the semi final and to win it. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for a semi final:

team	semi final		win
New Zealand	93,14		86,40	[92,76]
New Caledonia	49,18		35,44	[72,06]
Fiji	36,17		24,67	[68,21]
Tahiti	70,45		17,64	[25,04]
Vanuatu	66,65		14,35	[21,53]
Solomon Islands	62,60		12,21	[19,50]
Papua New Guinea	21,51		9,29	[43,19]
Cook Islands	0,30		0,00	[00,00]

The probability to win the final and qualify for the IPO:

team	win
New Zealand	76,31
New Caledonia	8,89
Fiji	4,73
Tahiti	3,47
Vanuatu	2,96
Solomon Islands	2,17
Papua New Guinea	1,47
Cook Islands	0,00

CONMEBOL

The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar as number one to four in the group or to qualify as group number 5 for the IPO against Asia's number 5 in June 2022. Also columns are given with the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in November (after MD14):

team	WC	diff		IPO	diff
Brazil	100,00	0,00		0,00	0,00
Argentina	100,00	0,00		0,00	0,00
Ecuador	100,00	6,97		0,00	-6,31
Uruguay	60,90	35,52		22,79	-3,80
Peru	36,50	10,37		44,42	22,45
Chile	1,34	-4,30		10,91	-2,14
Colombia	1,26	-46,73		21,88	-4,77
Bolivia	0,00	-1,61		0,00	-4,11
Paraguay	0,00	-0,22		0,00	-1,32
Venezuela	0,00	0,00		0,00	0,00

CONCACAF

The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup as number one to three in the group or to qualify as group number 4 for the IPO against the OFC number 1 in June 2022. Also columns are given with the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in November (after MD8):

team	WC	diff		IPO	diff
Canada	99,99	10,50		0,01	-8,98
Mexico	99,34	6,75		0,63	-5,87
USA	94,83	1,16		4,20	-1,71
Panama	3,96	-17,54		56,13	-0,84
Costa Rica	1,88	0,18		38,97	27,26
El Salvador	0,00	0,00		0,06	-0,23
Jamaica	0,00	-1,05		0,00	-9,54
Honduras	0,00	0,00		0,00	-0,09

AFC

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Iran	72,16	27,84	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Korea Republic	27,84	72,16	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
United Arab Emirates	0,00	0,00	71,86	23,91	4,23	0,00
Iraq	0,00	0,00	25,36	34,70	29,74	10,20
Lebanon	0,00	0,00	2,78	32,30	55,74	9,18
Syria	0,00	0,00	0,00	9,09	10,29	80,62
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Japan	51,12	36,76	12,12	0,00	0,00	0,00
Saudi Arabia	41,54	49,25	9,21	0,00	0,00	0,00
Australia	7,34	13,99	78,67	0,00	0,00	0,00
Oman	0,00	0,00	0,00	94,03	5,78	0,19
China PR	0,00	0,00	0,00	5,74	84,93	9,33
Vietnam	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,23	9,29	90,48

To qualify for the 5th place play-off and to win it. In square brackets to win it when qualified for this play-off. Also columns are given with the difference in probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in November (after MD6):

team	qualify	diff Q		win		diff win
Australia	78,67	27,35		65,23	[82,92]	31,13
United Arab Emirates	71,86	33,42		11,94	[16,62]	-3,77
Iraq	25,36	-6,29		6,38	[25,16]	-9,75
Japan	12,12	-10,17		10,39	[85,73]	-4,87
Saudi Arabia	9,21	-9,68		5,77	[62,65]	-1,56
Lebanon	2,78	-18,78		0,29	[10,43]	-5,28
Syria	0,00	-8,13		0,00	[00,00]	-2,97
Oman	0,00	-7,09		0,00	[00,00]	-2,63
China PR	0,00	-0,41		0,00	[00,00]	-0,15
Korea Republic	0,00	-0,22		0,00	[00,00]	-0,15
Iran	0,00	0,00		0,00	[00,00]	0,00
Vietnam	0,00	0,00		0,00	[00,00]	0,00

To qualify for the World Cup, composed of the chance to qualify as number one or two in the group (column Nr1-2) or via the route via the AFC number 5 play-off plus IPO against the CONMEBOL number 5 (column IPO). In the final column the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in November (after MD6):

team	Qtot	Nr1-2	IPO		diff Q
Iran	100,00	100,00	0,00		0,00
Korea Republic	100,00	100,00	0,00		0,20
Saudi Arabia	91,48	90,79	0,69		10,97
Japan	90,22	87,88	2,34		9,34
Australia	36,48	21,33	15,15		-14,10
United Arab Emirates	1,17	0,00	1,17		-0,22
Iraq	0,82	0,00	0,82		-0,97
Lebanon	0,02	0,00	0,02		-0,45
Oman	0,00	0,00	0,00		-1,52
Syria	0,00	0,00	0,00		-0,21
China PR	0,00	0,00	0,00		-0,04
Vietnam	0,00	0,00	0,00		0,00

Interconfederational play-offs

To qualify for an IPO and to win it. In square brackets to win it when qualified for this play-off:

team	IPO		Win IPO
Panama	56,13		44,02	[78,43]
Peru	44,42		35,34	[79,56]
Costa Rica	38,97		32,17	[82,55]
Uruguay	22,79		18,25	[80,08]
Colombia	21,88		18,01	[82,31]
New Zealand	76,31		17,83	[23,37]
Australia	65,23		15,15	[23,23]
Chile	10,91		8,21	[75,25]
USA	4,20		3,76	[89,52]
Japan	10,39		2,34	[22,52]
United Arab Emirates	11,94		1,17	[9,80]
Iraq	6,38		0,82	[12,85]
Saudi Arabia	5,77		0,69	[11,96]
New Caledonia	8,89		0,65	[7,31]
Mexico	0,63		0,61	[96,83]
Fiji	4,73		0,29	[6,13]
Tahiti	3,47		0,29	[8,36]
Solomon Islands	2,17		0,12	[5,53]
Vanuatu	2,96		0,11	[3,72]
Papua New Guinea	1,47		0,09	[6,12]
El Salvador	0,06		0,05	[83,33]
Lebanon	0,29		0,02	[6,90]
Canada	0,01		0,01	[100,00]
Argentina	0,00		0,00	[0,00]
Bolivia	0,00		0,00	[0,00]
Brazil	0,00		0,00	[0,00]
China PR	0,00		0,00	[0,00]
Cook Islands	0,00		0,00	[0,00]
Ecuador	0,00		0,00	[0,00]
Honduras	0,00		0,00	[0,00]
Iran	0,00		0,00	[0,00]
Jamaica	0,00		0,00	[0,00]
Korea Republic	0,00		0,00	[0,00]
Oman	0,00		0,00	[0,00]
Paraguay	0,00		0,00	[0,00]
Syria	0,00		0,00	[0,00]
Venezuela	0,00		0,00	[0,00]
Vietnam	0,00		0,00	[0,00]

Pots for the final draw

These pots are based on the FIFA ranking after the March 2022 window when 30 participants are known. Pot 1 contains Qatar and the 7 top ranked participants, pot 2 contains the next 8 highest ranked participants, etc. The teams are ordered by ascending weighted average pot distribution. In the first column the probability to qualify for the World Cup (including IPO's) is given:

team	WC	pot1	pot2	pot3	pot4
Qatar	100,00	100,00	0	0	0
Brazil	100,00	100,00	0	0	0
Belgium	100,00	100,00	0	0	0
France	100,00	100,00	0	0	0
England	100,00	100,00	0	0	0
Spain	100,00	100,00	0	0	0
Argentina	100,00	100,00	0	0	0
Portugal	66,36	64,80	1,56	0	0
----------------------------
Mexico	99,95	2,11	97,54	0,30	0
Netherlands	100,00	0,49	99,51	0	0
Denmark	100,00	0,27	99,73	0	0
Germany	100,00	0,05	99,95	0	0
Switzerland	100,00	0	100,00	0	0
Croatia	100,00	0	98,90	1,10	0
USA	98,59	0,85	96,06	1,68	0
Uruguay	79,15	0	70,61	8,54	0
----------------------------
Iran	100,00	0	1,49	98,49	0,02
Serbia	100,00	0	0	99,02	0,98
Italy	31,43	31,43	0	0	0
Korea Republic	100,00	0	0	68,34	31,66
Japan	90,22	0	0,06	89,64	0,52
Canada	100,00	0	0	29,51	70,49
Ecuador	100,00	0	0	0,01	99,99
Wales	70,40	0	7,87	62,53	0
----------------------------
Peru	71,84	0	0,92	70,87	0,05
Morocco	69,91	0	0,01	69,83	0,07
Saudi Arabia	91,48	0	0	0	91,48
Senegal	45,64	0	14,94	30,70	0
Nigeria	57,40	0	0	33,36	24,04
Mali	64,19	0	0	0	64,19
Egypt	54,36	0	0	23,30	31,06
Russia	51,80	0	0	21,48	30,32
Cameroon	50,99	0	0	1,21	49,78
Algeria	49,01	0	0	0,01	49,00
Panama	47,98	0	0	0	47,98
Ghana	42,60	0	0	0	42,60
Australia	36,48	0	0	3,40	33,08
Tunisia	35,81	0	0	1,50	34,31
Costa Rica	34,05	0	0	0,06	33,99
Sweden	20,90	0	5,79	15,11	0
Congo DR	30,09	0	0	0	30,09
Colombia	19,27	0	5,00	14,27	0
Poland	17,80	0	0	17,80	0
New Zealand	17,83	0	0	0	17,83
Austria	11,08	0	0	10,77	0,31
Chile	9,55	0	0,06	9,49	0
Czech Republic	9,50	0	0	8,76	0,74
Scotland	10,59	0	0	0,54	10,05
Ukraine	7,93	0	0	7,93	0
Turkey	2,05	0	0	0,45	1,60
United Arab Emirates	1,17	0	0	0	1,17
Iraq	0,82	0	0	0	0,82
New Caledonia	0,65	0	0	0	0,65
Fiji	0,29	0	0	0	0,29
Tahiti	0,29	0	0	0	0,29
North Macedonia	0,16	0	0	0	0,16
Solomon Islands	0,12	0	0	0	0,12
Vanuatu	0,11	0	0	0	0,11
Papua New Guinea	0,09	0	0	0	0,09
El Salvador	0,05	0	0	0	0,05
Lebanon	0,02	0	0	0	0,02
Bolivia	0,00	0	0	0	0
China PR	0,00	0	0	0	0
Cook Islands	0,00	0	0	0	0
Honduras	0,00	0	0	0	0
Jamaica	0,00	0	0	0	0
Oman	0,00	0	0	0	0
Paraguay	0,00	0	0	0	0
Syria	0,00	0	0	0	0

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.