The January window and all but the final weekend in the AFCON 2022 has been played. Compared to the last simulations made in November last year the following changes in the simulated match schedule are made:
- for UEFA all currently scheduled friendlies in the March window are included;
- for CAF the pairing of the final round of 5 home-and-away play-offs in March was drawn, using the November 2021 ranking as seeding ranking;
- for OFC the complete qualification match schedule is known now. All qualifiers will be played in Doha in March to decide the OFC-representative in the IPO's in June. Unfortunately Tonga had to withdraw for their preliminary play-off against the Cook Islands, due to the aftermath of the recent volcanic eruption in their territory. Cook Islands is therefore placed in group A and they will hopefully play their first competitive matches since September 2015;
- AFC, CONCACAF and CONMEBOL played two or three match days of qualifiers. In Asia Iran and South Korea qualified for Qatar while in the other group Japan, Saudi Arabia and Australia battle it out. In CONCACAF Canada was on a roll and won their 3 matches. They are all but qualified. In South America Ecuador and Uruguay made good progress towards direct qualification. Colombia sort of ruined their chances. Even for the IPO-berth Peru seems the first candidate.
Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.
The simulations include all scheduled remaining World Cup qualifiers (including the AFC number 5 PO and the IPO's in June 2022), the remainder of the AFCON 2022 and all currently scheduled friendlies.
UEFA
The ten group winners are Serbia, Spain, Switzerland, France, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, Croatia, England and Germany. The play-offs were drawn in November. All matches will be one-off affairs with the semi finals played on March 24th and the finals on March 29th:
Path A:
Scotland - Ukraine
Wales - Austria
The winner of Wales/Austria plays the path A final at home.
Path B:
Russia - Poland
Sweden - Czech Republic
The winner of Russia/Poland plays the path B final at home.
Path C:
Italy - North Macedonia
Portugal - Turkey
The winner of Portugal/Turkey plays the path C final at home.
First the probability to win a play-off semi-final. In the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in November (after the group stage and PO-draw).
|
team |
win SF |
diff |
|
|
Italy |
97,78 |
0,21 |
|
|
Portugal |
92,58 |
-0,07 |
|
|
Wales |
85,25 |
-0,05 |
|
|
Russia |
75,82 |
-0,54 |
|
|
Sweden |
75,62 |
0,08 |
|
|
Scotland |
68,10 |
0,04 |
|
|
Ukraine |
31,90 |
-0,04 |
|
|
Czech Republic |
24,38 |
-0,08 |
|
|
Poland |
24,18 |
0,54 |
|
|
Austria |
14,75 |
0,05 |
|
|
Turkey |
7,42 |
0,07 |
|
|
North Macedonia |
2,22 |
-0,21 |
The probability to win a play-off final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for a final. Also in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in November (after the group stage and PO-draw).
|
team |
win F |
diff |
||
|
Wales |
70,40 |
[82,58] |
0,34 |
|
|
Portugal |
66,36 |
[71,68] |
-0,26 |
|
|
Russia |
51,80 |
[68,32] |
0,31 |
|
|
Italy |
31,43 |
[32,14] |
0,01 |
|
|
Sweden |
20,90 |
[27,64] |
-0,97 |
|
|
Poland |
17,80 |
[73,61] |
0,37 |
|
|
Austria |
11,08 |
[75,12] |
-0,13 |
|
|
Scotland |
10,59 |
[15,55] |
-0,54 |
|
|
Czech Republic |
9,50 |
[38,97] |
0,29 |
|
|
Ukraine |
7,93 |
[24,86] |
0,33 |
|
|
Turkey |
2,05 |
[27,63] |
0,26 |
|
|
North Macedonia |
0,16 |
[7,21] |
-0,01 |
Finally the probability to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar ('Qtot'), composed of the probabilities to become a group winner ('nr1') and to win a play-off ('PO'). Also in the last column the difference in Qtot in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in November (after the group stage and PO-draw).
|
team |
nr1 |
PO |
Qtot |
diff |
|
|
Denmark |
100,00 |
0,00 |
100,00 |
0,00 |
|
|
Germany |
100,00 |
0,00 |
100,00 |
0,00 |
|
|
Belgium |
100,00 |
0,00 |
100,00 |
0,00 |
|
|
France |
100,00 |
0,00 |
100,00 |
0,00 |
|
|
England |
100,00 |
0,00 |
100,00 |
0,00 |
|
|
Netherlands |
100,00 |
0,00 |
100,00 |
0,00 |
|
|
Spain |
100,00 |
0,00 |
100,00 |
0,00 |
|
|
Croatia |
100,00 |
0,00 |
100,00 |
0,00 |
|
|
Switzerland |
100,00 |
0,00 |
100,00 |
0,00 |
|
|
Serbia |
100,00 |
0,00 |
100,00 |
0,00 |
|
|
Wales |
0,00 |
70,40 |
70,40 |
0,34 |
|
|
Portugal |
0,00 |
66,36 |
66,36 |
-0,26 |
|
|
Russia |
0,00 |
51,80 |
51,80 |
0,31 |
|
|
Italy |
0,00 |
31,43 |
31,43 |
0,01 |
|
|
Sweden |
0,00 |
20,90 |
20,90 |
-0,97 |
|
|
Poland |
0,00 |
17,80 |
17,80 |
0,37 |
|
|
Austria |
0,00 |
11,08 |
11,08 |
-0,13 |
|
|
Scotland |
0,00 |
10,59 |
10,59 |
-0,54 |
|
|
Czech Republic |
0,00 |
9,50 |
9,50 |
0,29 |
|
|
Ukraine |
0,00 |
7,93 |
7,93 |
0,33 |
|
|
Turkey |
0,00 |
2,05 |
2,05 |
0,26 |
|
|
North Macedonia |
0,00 |
0,16 |
0,16 |
-0,01 |
CAF
The third and final qualification round consists of these 5 home-and-away play-offs:
Egypt - Senegal: juicy repeat of the AFCON-final tomorrow;
Cameroon - Algeria: can Algeria recover from a disastrous group stage, Cameroon goes for third place today;
Ghana - Nigeria: Ghana could not get out of the group, Nigeria eliminated in the round of 16;
Congo DR - Morocco: Congo DR could not get out of the group, Morocco eliminated in the quarter finals;
Mali - Tunisia: Mali eliminated in the round of 16, Tunisia in the quarter finals.
The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup and in the final column the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in November (after the group stage):
|
team |
qualify |
diff Q |
|
|
Morocco |
69,91 |
-0,69 |
|
|
Mali |
64,19 |
25,74 |
|
|
Nigeria |
57,40 |
2,83 |
|
|
Egypt |
54,36 |
11,12 |
|
|
Cameroon |
50,99 |
12,34 |
|
|
Algeria |
49,01 |
-24,86 |
|
|
Senegal |
45,64 |
-17,48 |
|
|
Ghana |
42,60 |
5,97 |
|
|
Tunisia |
35,81 |
-18,44 |
|
|
Congo DR |
30,09 |
3,47 |
OFC
The 8 participating Oceania teams play in two groups of four. The top 2 of each group goes to a one-off semi final and the winners play the one-off final to determine the OFC IPO-participant. They will play in June against the CONCACAF number 4 for a berth in Qatar.
First the groups:
|
group A |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
|
Tahiti |
37,60 |
32,85 |
28,77 |
0,78 |
|
Vanuatu |
33,51 |
33,14 |
32,05 |
1,30 |
|
Solomon Islands |
28,86 |
33,74 |
36,30 |
1,10 |
|
Cook Islands |
0,03 |
0,27 |
2,88 |
96,82 |
|
group B |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
|
New Zealand |
76,29 |
16,85 |
5,35 |
1,51 |
|
New Caledonia |
12,27 |
36,91 |
29,68 |
21,14 |
|
Fiji |
7,86 |
28,31 |
34,61 |
29,22 |
|
Papua New Guinea |
3,58 |
17,93 |
30,36 |
48,13 |
The probability to qualify for the semi final and to win it. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for a semi final:
|
team |
semi final |
win |
||
|
New Zealand |
93,14 |
86,40 |
[92,76] |
|
|
New Caledonia |
49,18 |
35,44 |
[72,06] |
|
|
Fiji |
36,17 |
24,67 |
[68,21] |
|
|
Tahiti |
70,45 |
17,64 |
[25,04] |
|
|
Vanuatu |
66,65 |
14,35 |
[21,53] |
|
|
Solomon Islands |
62,60 |
12,21 |
[19,50] |
|
|
Papua New Guinea |
21,51 |
9,29 |
[43,19] |
|
|
Cook Islands |
0,30 |
0,00 |
[00,00] |
The probability to win the final and qualify for the IPO:
|
team |
win |
|
New Zealand |
76,31 |
|
New Caledonia |
8,89 |
|
Fiji |
4,73 |
|
Tahiti |
3,47 |
|
Vanuatu |
2,96 |
|
Solomon Islands |
2,17 |
|
Papua New Guinea |
1,47 |
|
Cook Islands |
0,00 |
CONMEBOL
The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar as number one to four in the group or to qualify as group number 5 for the IPO against Asia's number 5 in June 2022. Also columns are given with the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in November (after MD14):
|
team |
WC |
diff |
IPO |
diff |
|
|
Brazil |
100,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
|
Argentina |
100,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
|
Ecuador |
100,00 |
6,97 |
0,00 |
-6,31 |
|
|
Uruguay |
60,90 |
35,52 |
22,79 |
-3,80 |
|
|
Peru |
36,50 |
10,37 |
44,42 |
22,45 |
|
|
Chile |
1,34 |
-4,30 |
10,91 |
-2,14 |
|
|
Colombia |
1,26 |
-46,73 |
21,88 |
-4,77 |
|
|
Bolivia |
0,00 |
-1,61 |
0,00 |
-4,11 |
|
|
Paraguay |
0,00 |
-0,22 |
0,00 |
-1,32 |
|
|
Venezuela |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
CONCACAF
The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup as number one to three in the group or to qualify as group number 4 for the IPO against the OFC number 1 in June 2022. Also columns are given with the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in November (after MD8):
|
team |
WC |
diff |
IPO |
diff |
|
|
Canada |
99,99 |
10,50 |
0,01 |
-8,98 |
|
|
Mexico |
99,34 |
6,75 |
0,63 |
-5,87 |
|
|
USA |
94,83 |
1,16 |
4,20 |
-1,71 |
|
|
Panama |
3,96 |
-17,54 |
56,13 |
-0,84 |
|
|
Costa Rica |
1,88 |
0,18 |
38,97 |
27,26 |
|
|
El Salvador |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,06 |
-0,23 |
|
|
Jamaica |
0,00 |
-1,05 |
0,00 |
-9,54 |
|
|
Honduras |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
-0,09 |
AFC
The group results with teams ordered by average group position:
|
group A |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
|
Iran |
72,16 |
27,84 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
Korea Republic |
27,84 |
72,16 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
United Arab Emirates |
0,00 |
0,00 |
71,86 |
23,91 |
4,23 |
0,00 |
|
Iraq |
0,00 |
0,00 |
25,36 |
34,70 |
29,74 |
10,20 |
|
Lebanon |
0,00 |
0,00 |
2,78 |
32,30 |
55,74 |
9,18 |
|
Syria |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
9,09 |
10,29 |
80,62 |
|
group B |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
|
Japan |
51,12 |
36,76 |
12,12 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
Saudi Arabia |
41,54 |
49,25 |
9,21 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
Australia |
7,34 |
13,99 |
78,67 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
Oman |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
94,03 |
5,78 |
0,19 |
|
China PR |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
5,74 |
84,93 |
9,33 |
|
Vietnam |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,23 |
9,29 |
90,48 |
To qualify for the 5th place play-off and to win it. In square brackets to win it when qualified for this play-off. Also columns are given with the difference in probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in November (after MD6):
|
team |
qualify |
diff Q |
win |
diff win |
||
|
Australia |
78,67 |
27,35 |
65,23 |
[82,92] |
31,13 |
|
|
United Arab Emirates |
71,86 |
33,42 |
11,94 |
[16,62] |
-3,77 |
|
|
Iraq |
25,36 |
-6,29 |
6,38 |
[25,16] |
-9,75 |
|
|
Japan |
12,12 |
-10,17 |
10,39 |
[85,73] |
-4,87 |
|
|
Saudi Arabia |
9,21 |
-9,68 |
5,77 |
[62,65] |
-1,56 |
|
|
Lebanon |
2,78 |
-18,78 |
0,29 |
[10,43] |
-5,28 |
|
|
Syria |
0,00 |
-8,13 |
0,00 |
[00,00] |
-2,97 |
|
|
Oman |
0,00 |
-7,09 |
0,00 |
[00,00] |
-2,63 |
|
|
China PR |
0,00 |
-0,41 |
0,00 |
[00,00] |
-0,15 |
|
|
Korea Republic |
0,00 |
-0,22 |
0,00 |
[00,00] |
-0,15 |
|
|
Iran |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
[00,00] |
0,00 |
|
|
Vietnam |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
[00,00] |
0,00 |
To qualify for the World Cup, composed of the chance to qualify as number one or two in the group (column Nr1-2) or via the route via the AFC number 5 play-off plus IPO against the CONMEBOL number 5 (column IPO). In the final column the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in November (after MD6):
|
team |
Qtot |
Nr1-2 |
IPO |
diff Q |
|
|
Iran |
100,00 |
100,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
|
Korea Republic |
100,00 |
100,00 |
0,00 |
0,20 |
|
|
Saudi Arabia |
91,48 |
90,79 |
0,69 |
10,97 |
|
|
Japan |
90,22 |
87,88 |
2,34 |
9,34 |
|
|
Australia |
36,48 |
21,33 |
15,15 |
-14,10 |
|
|
United Arab Emirates |
1,17 |
0,00 |
1,17 |
-0,22 |
|
|
Iraq |
0,82 |
0,00 |
0,82 |
-0,97 |
|
|
Lebanon |
0,02 |
0,00 |
0,02 |
-0,45 |
|
|
Oman |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
-1,52 |
|
|
Syria |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
-0,21 |
|
|
China PR |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
-0,04 |
|
|
Vietnam |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
Interconfederational play-offs
To qualify for an IPO and to win it. In square brackets to win it when qualified for this play-off:
|
team |
IPO |
Win IPO |
||
|
Panama |
56,13 |
44,02 |
[78,43] |
|
|
Peru |
44,42 |
35,34 |
[79,56] |
|
|
Costa Rica |
38,97 |
32,17 |
[82,55] |
|
|
Uruguay |
22,79 |
18,25 |
[80,08] |
|
|
Colombia |
21,88 |
18,01 |
[82,31] |
|
|
New Zealand |
76,31 |
17,83 |
[23,37] |
|
|
Australia |
65,23 |
15,15 |
[23,23] |
|
|
Chile |
10,91 |
8,21 |
[75,25] |
|
|
USA |
4,20 |
3,76 |
[89,52] |
|
|
Japan |
10,39 |
2,34 |
[22,52] |
|
|
United Arab Emirates |
11,94 |
1,17 |
[9,80] |
|
|
Iraq |
6,38 |
0,82 |
[12,85] |
|
|
Saudi Arabia |
5,77 |
0,69 |
[11,96] |
|
|
New Caledonia |
8,89 |
0,65 |
[7,31] |
|
|
Mexico |
0,63 |
0,61 |
[96,83] |
|
|
Fiji |
4,73 |
0,29 |
[6,13] |
|
|
Tahiti |
3,47 |
0,29 |
[8,36] |
|
|
Solomon Islands |
2,17 |
0,12 |
[5,53] |
|
|
Vanuatu |
2,96 |
0,11 |
[3,72] |
|
|
Papua New Guinea |
1,47 |
0,09 |
[6,12] |
|
|
El Salvador |
0,06 |
0,05 |
[83,33] |
|
|
Lebanon |
0,29 |
0,02 |
[6,90] |
|
|
Canada |
0,01 |
0,01 |
[100,00] |
|
|
Argentina |
0,00 |
0,00 |
[0,00] |
|
|
Bolivia |
0,00 |
0,00 |
[0,00] |
|
|
Brazil |
0,00 |
0,00 |
[0,00] |
|
|
China PR |
0,00 |
0,00 |
[0,00] |
|
|
Cook Islands |
0,00 |
0,00 |
[0,00] |
|
|
Ecuador |
0,00 |
0,00 |
[0,00] |
|
|
Honduras |
0,00 |
0,00 |
[0,00] |
|
|
Iran |
0,00 |
0,00 |
[0,00] |
|
|
Jamaica |
0,00 |
0,00 |
[0,00] |
|
|
Korea Republic |
0,00 |
0,00 |
[0,00] |
|
|
Oman |
0,00 |
0,00 |
[0,00] |
|
|
Paraguay |
0,00 |
0,00 |
[0,00] |
|
|
Syria |
0,00 |
0,00 |
[0,00] |
|
|
Venezuela |
0,00 |
0,00 |
[0,00] |
|
|
Vietnam |
0,00 |
0,00 |
[0,00] |
Pots for the final draw
These pots are based on the FIFA ranking after the March 2022 window when 30 participants are known. Pot 1 contains Qatar and the 7 top ranked participants, pot 2 contains the next 8 highest ranked participants, etc. The teams are ordered by ascending weighted average pot distribution. In the first column the probability to qualify for the World Cup (including IPO's) is given:
team WC pot1 pot2 pot3 pot4 Qatar 100,00 100,00 0 0 0 Brazil 100,00 100,00 0 0 0 Belgium 100,00 100,00 0 0 0 France 100,00 100,00 0 0 0 England 100,00 100,00 0 0 0 Spain 100,00 100,00 0 0 0 Argentina 100,00 100,00 0 0 0 Portugal 66,36 64,80 1,56 0 0 ---------------------------- Mexico 99,95 2,11 97,54 0,30 0 Netherlands 100,00 0,49 99,51 0 0 Denmark 100,00 0,27 99,73 0 0 Germany 100,00 0,05 99,95 0 0 Switzerland 100,00 0 100,00 0 0 Croatia 100,00 0 98,90 1,10 0 USA 98,59 0,85 96,06 1,68 0 Uruguay 79,15 0 70,61 8,54 0 ---------------------------- Iran 100,00 0 1,49 98,49 0,02 Serbia 100,00 0 0 99,02 0,98 Italy 31,43 31,43 0 0 0 Korea Republic 100,00 0 0 68,34 31,66 Japan 90,22 0 0,06 89,64 0,52 Canada 100,00 0 0 29,51 70,49 Ecuador 100,00 0 0 0,01 99,99 Wales 70,40 0 7,87 62,53 0 ---------------------------- Peru 71,84 0 0,92 70,87 0,05 Morocco 69,91 0 0,01 69,83 0,07 Saudi Arabia 91,48 0 0 0 91,48 Senegal 45,64 0 14,94 30,70 0 Nigeria 57,40 0 0 33,36 24,04 Mali 64,19 0 0 0 64,19 Egypt 54,36 0 0 23,30 31,06 Russia 51,80 0 0 21,48 30,32 Cameroon 50,99 0 0 1,21 49,78 Algeria 49,01 0 0 0,01 49,00 Panama 47,98 0 0 0 47,98 Ghana 42,60 0 0 0 42,60 Australia 36,48 0 0 3,40 33,08 Tunisia 35,81 0 0 1,50 34,31 Costa Rica 34,05 0 0 0,06 33,99 Sweden 20,90 0 5,79 15,11 0 Congo DR 30,09 0 0 0 30,09 Colombia 19,27 0 5,00 14,27 0 Poland 17,80 0 0 17,80 0 New Zealand 17,83 0 0 0 17,83 Austria 11,08 0 0 10,77 0,31 Chile 9,55 0 0,06 9,49 0 Czech Republic 9,50 0 0 8,76 0,74 Scotland 10,59 0 0 0,54 10,05 Ukraine 7,93 0 0 7,93 0 Turkey 2,05 0 0 0,45 1,60 United Arab Emirates 1,17 0 0 0 1,17 Iraq 0,82 0 0 0 0,82 New Caledonia 0,65 0 0 0 0,65 Fiji 0,29 0 0 0 0,29 Tahiti 0,29 0 0 0 0,29 North Macedonia 0,16 0 0 0 0,16 Solomon Islands 0,12 0 0 0 0,12 Vanuatu 0,11 0 0 0 0,11 Papua New Guinea 0,09 0 0 0 0,09 El Salvador 0,05 0 0 0 0,05 Lebanon 0,02 0 0 0 0,02 Bolivia 0,00 0 0 0 0 China PR 0,00 0 0 0 0 Cook Islands 0,00 0 0 0 0 Honduras 0,00 0 0 0 0 Jamaica 0,00 0 0 0 0 Oman 0,00 0 0 0 0 Paraguay 0,00 0 0 0 0 Syria 0,00 0 0 0 0
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Do we know how the intercontinental playoffs are going to be seeded? I wouldn't be surprised if they both just get placed in Pot 4, which could set up a very interesting "Group of Death" if Uruguay/Colombia ends up qualifying through there.
ReplyDeleteNo, the draw procedures are not yet published. I hope they seed each IPO-winner according to the highest rank of all participants in each IPO.
ReplyDeleteThey want to use the FIFA ranking as seeding ranking ? OK, then apply it wherever possible...
Having the draw before the IPO's makes things very awkward though, in terms of separating confederations.
DeleteHypothetically, let's say one play-off is Peru vs Australia, then the winner of the play-off wouldn't be able to be placed in a group with another Conmebol or AFC member, and that could in theory be impossible. I think FIFA will need to come up with some either/or scenarios for the draw to allow for this. Or even postpone the draw until after the play-offs.
The other play-off of course is not such a challenge, given that OFC only have a maximum of 1 finalist, so it's simply a case of keeping that winner away from the other 3 Concacaf teams in the group stage.
DeleteAssuming CONMEBOL/AFC winner in Pot 4, you're likely to have 3 CONMEBOL teams in Pots 1-3 and 4 Asian teams, so you should have one spot available for them no matter what.
DeleteHmm, I'm not sure if that's the case. If Uruguay & Ecuador take the automatic spots to join Brazil & Argentina, and Japan & Saudi join S Korea, Iran & Qatar, wouldn't they be in the following Pots?
DeletePot 1: Qatar, Brazil, Argentina
Pot 2: Uruguay
Pot 3: Ecuador, Iran, Korea, Japan
Pot 4: Saudi & perhaps the winner of Peru/Australia
I'm guessing FIFA would have to arrange the draw so that at least one group is free of CONMEBOL/AFC teams before getting to Pot 4 and giving that spot to the play-off winner.
FIFA are of course very "creative" with these draws, so it shouldn't be beyond them :-)
I guess this is possible, though it's much more likely that Ecuador are going to be in Pot 4 regardless.
DeleteAnother option is that they draw pot 4 before pot 3. A minor change that makes a lot of stuff easier.
And of course, there remains the possibility that they only seed Qatar+top 7, and everything else is just split by continent.
Hi Ed, how many of the european friendlies in March have you included in your simulations in "Pots for the final draw"?
ReplyDeleteEverything that was mentioned in my two basic sources on February 5th. I can't exactly say which because I don't keep track of the inclusion date, but I think the friendlies against African opposition of France and Belgium miss. The rest is probably already included.
ReplyDeleteWhy Egypt has a higher chance to qualify against Senegal despite the ranking difference that favor Senegal?
ReplyDeleteA week ago, your simulations expected a Senegal win by PSO in the CAF cup of nations final.
Yeah, that prediction was not too shabby :)
ReplyDeleteEgypt's 55-45 chance to qualify is a bit of a surprise for me also. I think it's caused by the fact that it's a double header with Egypt first playing at home. The elo-difference between the two is small (38 points at the moment in favor of Senegal) so Egypt's home win expectancy is 59%, that's a deterministic draw but very close to a win (which starts at 60,9%).
Because elo points are adapted after each match (in the simulation as in the real elo rating) the win expectancy for the second match in Dakar is only some 62% so also very close to a draw. In the simulations that adds up to a slightly bigger chance for Egypt to qualify for Qatar over the two matches.
I would have expected very balanced (very close to 50-50) probabilities for both teams in this play-off qualifier.
That's interesting Ed, in my own CAF model I have senegal/egypt at 55/45 but in favor of Senegal. Even with a win margin of 3+, not nearly enough elo rating ought to be exchanged to not give Senegal enough of an edge to outscore Egypt in aggregate with round 2
DeleteYeah Alex, as I said I'd expect very even chances or Senegal with a slight advantage. The simulations contain indeed Monte Carlo based simulations of match results.
ReplyDeletePlus, at calculation time the AFCON-final still had to be played also. This adds extra uncertainty to the range of elo-ratings with which the two teams would enter the double header itself.
Ah having the calculation before the afcon final may explain it
DeleteAre all OFC WC Qualifiers from March 17 to March 30 classified as I = 25 despite of earlier group stage matches are playing outside IMW ?
ReplyDeleteThe inside/outside IMW distinction is only relevant for the I-factor of friendlies (resp. 10 or 5).
ReplyDeleteThese OFC-matches are all indeed WC-qualifiers with I=25.
I’d expect that FIFA will allocate the South American/ Asian play off winner based on the higher ranking of the two teams which is expected to be pot3 based on Peru ranking.
ReplyDeleteThen in Pot 1: Qatar - Brazil - Argentina
Pot 2: Uruguay - Ecuador
Pot 3: Iran - South Korea - Asia/South America
Pot 4: Saudi Arabia - Japan
Pot 1 will be drawn : let’s say A Qatar -B Brazil - C Argentina
Pot 2 will be drawn : Uruguay can’t be in ( B-C) let’s say D, Ecuador can’t be in ( B-C-D) so let’s assume E
Pot 3 will be drawn: playoff winner can not be in ( A/B/C/D/E) so let’s say it’ll be F, Iran can’t be in ( A or F) so let’s assume Iran become in G, South Korea can’t be in (A or F or G) so let’s assume worst case that South Korea takes H
Pot 4 draw: Saudi Arabia can’t be in ( A-F-G-H) so Saudi can be in (B-C-E or D) , let’s say Saudi falls in B then Japan can be in (C-E-D) so let’s say Japan falls in C
The sequence of the draw should allocate firstly all Asian and South American teams by drawing them starting Pot 1 up to Pot 4.
Secondly : procedures should be done by allocating USA and Mexico and Canada in three different groups , winner of concacaf and Oceania playoff shall be in Pot 4 ( based on the ranking of the higher team) and consequently drawn in a group away from Usa, Mexico and Cañada groups.
Afterwards, all other teams can be drawn pot by pot.
Based on these procedures: the draw is well organized and extremely fair ( for example : if Australia beat Peru , so Australia deserves to be in Pot 3) .
FIFA guys if you need to hire me please comment on this post ;)
Nah we're all G thanks Brah
Deletewith now Path A in UEFA not known, given 3 unknown teams I suspect an easy way to do it would be Pot 1, Pot 2 and then the rest are allocated by confederation. Visually the draw should be easy for viewers to follow at home.
ReplyDeleteIt's official! Intercontinental playoffs and the final UEFA team will all be placed in pot 4! Group of death incoming!
ReplyDeleteHi Ed, hopefully you can find the time to do a midway simulation.... - Sunday perhaps?
ReplyDeleteYouve done it before.... :-)
Two Danish victories and a WC ticket for North Macedonia places Denmark in pot 1)
And the same goes for Netherlands
DeleteTrue!
DeleteI shall see if I can find the time.
ReplyDeleteBut what if Denmark loses Saturday ? :)
We don't.... ;-)
DeleteWe did.... :-(
Delete