FIFA will publish the ranking tomorrow, Thursday March 31st. Just in time to use it as the seeding ranking for the Finals draw the following day, Friday April 1st at 18:00 CET that shindig will start.
This final preview contains 169 matches, out of 181 matches played since February 7th.
Just now New Zealand has demolished Solomon Islands in the OFC qualification final, so they will participate in the interconfederational play-off against the CONCACAF number four in June.
And tonight (for us Europeans) the CONCACAF octagonal finishes with the last 4 matches: Canada is qualified but they need a win to clinch the final spot in pot 3 (relegating Tunisia to pot 4), Mexico needs a point against El Salvador to qualify. Costa Rica - USA is about the third direct qualification spot. Costa Rica needs a win with 6 goals difference to pip the USA. That probably won't happen, so the Central-Americans will highly likely be the opponent of New Zealand in June. Mexico and USA will be in pot 2 for the draw when they qualify.
The other IPO is between Peru and the winner of Australia - United Arab Emirates.
The points to be won tonight in the final matches counting for the April ranking:
MEX |
SLV |
||||
pos |
pts |
pos |
pts |
||
MEX win |
9 |
1658,82 |
74 |
1331,65 |
|
draw |
13 |
1646,32 |
70 |
1344,15 |
|
SLV win |
16 |
1633,82 |
69 |
1356,65 |
|
CRC |
USA |
||||
pos |
pts |
pos |
pts |
||
USA win |
39 |
1478,09 |
9 |
1658,72 |
|
draw |
37 |
1490,59 |
13 |
1646,22 |
|
CRC win |
31 |
1503,09 |
16 |
1633,72 |
|
PAN |
CAN |
||||
pos |
pts |
pos |
pts |
||
CAN win |
68 |
1357,79 |
31 |
1504,00 |
|
draw |
65 |
1370,29 |
37 |
1491,50 |
|
PAN win |
61 |
1382,79 |
39 |
1479,00 |
|
JAM |
HON |
||||
pos |
pts |
pos |
pts |
||
JAM win |
63 |
1378,75 |
83 |
1289,47 |
|
draw |
67 |
1366,25 |
78 |
1301,97 |
|
HON win |
70 |
1353,75 |
76 |
1314,47 |
Elo predicts wins for Mexico, Canada and Jamaica and a draw between Costa Rica and USA.
Brazil has finally regained the top spot over Belgium. They were first already in September 1993, in only the second ranking (from now 316 published rankings).
The Cook Islands are once again included in the ranking after the one qualifier they were able to play this month before COVID-19 struck again.
Two teams record new highs:
Canada (31 - 33 in February 2022)
Kosovo (108 - 109 in September 2021)
Four teams dropped to new lows:
Liechtenstein (192 - 191 in July 2017)
Guam (207 - 206 in October 2021)
US Virgin Islands (208 - 207 in November 2019)
British Virgin Islands (209 - 208 in October 2019)
Two teams equaled their lowest ranking:
Anguilla (210 first in November 2019)
San Marino (211 first in November 2018)
Best movers:
10 - New Zealand
7 - South Sudan
6 - North Macedonia, Sao Tomé e PrÃncipe
Worst movers:
-8 - Azerbaijan, Somalia
-7 - New Caledonia
Best movers in the top 50:
5 - Costa Rica
4 - Norway, Saudi Arabia
Worst movers in the top 50:
-5 - Australia
-4 - Austria, Turkey
These will be the pots for the Finals draw when the elo-predictions for the CONCACAF matches tonight come true:
pot 1
Qatar - AFC
Brazil - CONMEBOL
Belgium - UEFA
France - UEFA
Argentina - CONMEBOL
England - UEFA
Spain - UEFA
Portugal - UEFA
pot 2
Mexico - CONCACAF
Netherlands - UEFA
Denmark - UEFA
Germany - UEFA
USA - CONCACAF
Uruguay - CONMEBOL
Switzerland - UEFA
Croatia - UEFA
pot 3
Senegal - CAF
Iran - AFC
Japan - AFC
Morocco - CAF
Serbia - UEFA
Poland - UEFA
Korea Republic - AFC
Canada - CONCACAF
pot 4
Tunisia - CAF
Cameroon - CAF
Ecuador - CONMEBOL
Saudi Arabia - AFC
Ghana - CAF
UEFA PO placeholder (Wales - Scotland/Ukraine)
CONMEBOL/AFC IPO placeholder (Peru - Australia/United Arab Emirates)
CONCACAF/OFC IPO placeholder (Costa Rica -New Zealand)
Stay safe and healthy everybody !
pos Apr |
team |
pts Apr |
+/- pos |
+/- pts |
1 |
Brazil |
1832,69 |
1 |
9,27 |
2 |
Belgium |
1827,00 |
-1 |
-1,45 |
3 |
France |
1789,85 |
0 |
3,70 |
4 |
Argentina |
1765,13 |
0 |
-1,86 |
5 |
England |
1761,71 |
0 |
6,19 |
6 |
Italy |
1723,31 |
0 |
-17,46 |
7 |
Spain |
1709,19 |
0 |
4,44 |
8 |
Portugal |
1674,78 |
0 |
14,53 |
9 |
Mexico |
1658,82 |
3 |
10,92 |
10 |
Netherlands |
1658,66 |
0 |
4,93 |
11 |
Denmark |
1653,60 |
-2 |
-0,94 |
12 |
Germany |
1650,53 |
-1 |
2,20 |
13 |
USA |
1646,22 |
0 |
2,88 |
14 |
Uruguay |
1635,73 |
2 |
21,68 |
15 |
Switzerland |
1635,32 |
-1 |
-7,51 |
16 |
Croatia |
1621,11 |
-1 |
0,37 |
17 |
Colombia |
1600,52 |
2 |
14,63 |
18 |
Wales |
1588,08 |
2 |
10,07 |
19 |
Sweden |
1584,77 |
-2 |
-3,49 |
20 |
Senegal |
1584,16 |
-2 |
-3,62 |
21 |
Iran |
1564,49 |
0 |
-8,40 |
22 |
Peru |
1562,32 |
0 |
-1,13 |
23 |
Japan |
1553,44 |
0 |
3,62 |
24 |
Morocco |
1551,88 |
0 |
4,46 |
25 |
Serbia |
1547,53 |
0 |
0,15 |
26 |
Poland |
1544,20 |
2 |
13,58 |
27 |
Ukraine |
1535,08 |
0 |
0 |
28 |
Chile |
1526,40 |
-2 |
-16,76 |
29 |
Korea Republic |
1519,54 |
0 |
-3,31 |
30 |
Nigeria |
1504,01 |
2 |
-5,90 |
31 |
Canada |
1504,00 |
2 |
6,18 |
32 |
Egypt |
1500,67 |
2 |
3,62 |
33 |
Czech Republic |
1500,62 |
-2 |
-9,80 |
34 |
Austria |
1500,37 |
-4 |
-11,19 |
35 |
Tunisia |
1499,80 |
1 |
9,88 |
36 |
Russia |
1493,42 |
-1 |
0 |
37 |
Costa Rica |
1490,59 |
5 |
26,53 |
38 |
Cameroon |
1480,48 |
0 |
-0,34 |
39 |
Scotland |
1472,66 |
1 |
0,84 |
40 |
Hungary |
1466,08 |
1 |
0,46 |
41 |
Norway |
1463,50 |
4 |
8,07 |
42 |
Australia |
1462,29 |
-5 |
-24,57 |
43 |
Turkey |
1461,81 |
-4 |
-10,91 |
44 |
Algeria |
1461,26 |
-1 |
0,33 |
45 |
Slovakia |
1454,98 |
1 |
-0,38 |
46 |
Ecuador |
1452,63 |
-2 |
-6,00 |
47 |
Republic of Ireland |
1449,48 |
2 |
5,19 |
48 |
Romania |
1446,54 |
-1 |
-6,64 |
49 |
Saudi Arabia |
1444,69 |
4 |
10,74 |
50 |
Paraguay |
1443,30 |
0 |
2,77 |
51 |
Qatar |
1441,41 |
1 |
3,50 |
52 |
Mali |
1436,62 |
-4 |
-9,87 |
53 |
Cote d'Ivoire |
1435,28 |
-2 |
-4,34 |
54 |
Northern Ireland |
1423,55 |
0 |
-1,42 |
55 |
Greece |
1421,43 |
0 |
-0,56 |
56 |
Burkina Faso |
1409,61 |
0 |
-8,97 |
57 |
Finland |
1406,87 |
0 |
-4,90 |
58 |
Venezuela |
1398,14 |
0 |
-13,31 |
59 |
Bosnia-Herzegovina |
1388,63 |
0 |
-2,56 |
60 |
Ghana |
1387,36 |
1 |
5,91 |
61 |
North Macedonia |
1381,07 |
6 |
13,84 |
62 |
Iceland |
1380,85 |
-2 |
-1,96 |
63 |
Jamaica |
1378,75 |
-1 |
0,13 |
64 |
Slovenia |
1378,23 |
0 |
2,81 |
65 |
Albania |
1371,86 |
0 |
-3,12 |
66 |
Congo DR |
1365,07 |
0 |
-4,46 |
67 |
Panama |
1357,79 |
-4 |
-17,77 |
68 |
United Arab Emirates |
1356,99 |
1 |
3,89 |
69 |
South Africa |
1356,01 |
-1 |
-2,23 |
70 |
Montenegro |
1342,79 |
2 |
-0,10 |
71 |
Cape Verde Islands |
1339,50 |
2 |
2,62 |
72 |
Iraq |
1338,91 |
2 |
13,47 |
73 |
Bulgaria |
1338,78 |
-2 |
-6,69 |
74 |
El Salvador |
1331,65 |
-4 |
-14,39 |
75 |
Oman |
1324,16 |
4 |
23,16 |
76 |
Israel |
1305,92 |
1 |
-0,78 |
77 |
China PR |
1304,02 |
-2 |
-9,79 |
78 |
Bolivia |
1298,81 |
-2 |
-9,31 |
79 |
Curacao |
1298,39 |
1 |
0 |
80 |
Guinea |
1293,21 |
1 |
0,63 |
81 |
Gabon |
1290,65 |
1 |
0 |
82 |
Honduras |
1289,47 |
-4 |
-14,49 |
83 |
Benin |
1288,91 |
0 |
6,38 |
84 |
Uzbekistan |
1286,55 |
1 |
9,53 |
85 |
Georgia |
1276,31 |
1 |
7,07 |
86 |
Uganda |
1275,50 |
-2 |
-3,68 |
87 |
Bahrain |
1265,76 |
2 |
2,15 |
88 |
Syria |
1265,03 |
3 |
13,81 |
89 |
Zambia |
1262,22 |
-1 |
-2,42 |
90 |
Haiti |
1261,86 |
-3 |
-6,19 |
91 |
Jordan |
1259,84 |
-1 |
0 |
92 |
Armenia |
1245,13 |
0 |
2,89 |
93 |
Belarus |
1243,23 |
1 |
9,80 |
94 |
Luxembourg |
1229,60 |
-1 |
-6,85 |
95 |
Kyrgyzstan |
1218,48 |
1 |
-10,21 |
96 |
Vietnam |
1215,38 |
2 |
-3,17 |
97 |
Lebanon |
1211,71 |
-2 |
-17,26 |
98 |
Congo |
1211,36 |
-1 |
-10,04 |
99 |
Palestine |
1208,90 |
1 |
0 |
100 |
Trinidad and Tobago |
1206,88 |
1 |
0,89 |
101 |
New Zealand |
1206,07 |
10 |
44,41 |
102 |
Madagascar |
1205,61 |
0 |
0 |
103 |
Equatorial Guinea |
1203,93 |
-4 |
-6,14 |
104 |
Kenya |
1202,26 |
-1 |
0 |
105 |
Cyprus |
1186,09 |
0 |
7,44 |
106 |
Sierra Leone |
1177,78 |
1 |
3,97 |
107 |
India |
1174,04 |
-3 |
-8,71 |
108 |
Kosovo |
1173,90 |
1 |
10,85 |
109 |
Korea DPR |
1169,96 |
-1 |
0 |
110 |
Estonia |
1169,06 |
-4 |
-7,44 |
111 |
Thailand |
1167,68 |
1 |
7,54 |
112 |
Namibia |
1162,93 |
-2 |
0 |
113 |
Mauritania |
1162,48 |
3 |
9,96 |
114 |
Tajikistan |
1159,42 |
1 |
6,86 |
115 |
Guinea-Bissau |
1158,80 |
-2 |
0,18 |
116 |
Niger |
1153,23 |
-2 |
-5,16 |
117 |
Libya |
1149,63 |
1 |
0,12 |
118 |
Guatemala |
1147,85 |
5 |
9,45 |
119 |
Mozambique |
1146,09 |
-2 |
-4,92 |
120 |
Malawi |
1145,08 |
-1 |
0 |
121 |
Togo |
1140,05 |
5 |
6,81 |
122 |
Zimbabwe |
1138,56 |
0 |
0 |
123 |
Gambia |
1138,19 |
2 |
3,01 |
124 |
Angola |
1137,67 |
3 |
5,95 |
125 |
Faroe Islands |
1137,40 |
-1 |
0,41 |
126 |
Kazakhstan |
1134,77 |
-6 |
-5,94 |
127 |
Antigua and Barbuda |
1131,08 |
1 |
0 |
128 |
Comoros |
1130,77 |
3 |
4,57 |
129 |
Azerbaijan |
1127,05 |
-8 |
-11,97 |
130 |
Tanzania |
1123,79 |
2 |
5,03 |
131 |
Central African Republic |
1122,08 |
-1 |
-5,12 |
132 |
Sudan |
1118,40 |
1 |
0,09 |
133 |
Philippines |
1117,89 |
-4 |
-12,02 |
134 |
Turkmenistan |
1117,60 |
0 |
0 |
135 |
Latvia |
1105,02 |
0 |
4,99 |
136 |
Rwanda |
1097,16 |
0 |
0 |
137 |
Solomon Islands |
1092,56 |
5 |
19,78 |
138 |
Lithuania |
1092,04 |
-1 |
0,27 |
139 |
Burundi |
1077,38 |
2 |
1,56 |
140 |
Ethiopia |
1076,66 |
-2 |
-4,57 |
141 |
Suriname |
1073,39 |
-1 |
-4,18 |
142 |
St. Kitts and Nevis |
1072,30 |
-3 |
-5,46 |
143 |
Eswatini |
1070,46 |
4 |
16,32 |
144 |
Nicaragua |
1062,21 |
0 |
0 |
145 |
Lesotho |
1061,72 |
1 |
4,10 |
146 |
Kuwait |
1059,94 |
-3 |
-5,62 |
147 |
Hong Kong |
1053,39 |
1 |
0 |
148 |
Botswana |
1051,59 |
1 |
0 |
149 |
Afghanistan |
1049,77 |
1 |
0 |
150 |
Liberia |
1046,58 |
-5 |
-11,70 |
151 |
Yemen |
1046,26 |
0 |
0 |
152 |
Myanmar |
1044,56 |
0 |
0 |
153 |
Andorra |
1040,13 |
2 |
9,85 |
154 |
Malaysia |
1035,06 |
0 |
0,53 |
155 |
Dominican Republic |
1029,42 |
1 |
0 |
156 |
Maldives |
1025,50 |
1 |
3,92 |
157 |
Chinese Taipei |
1017,78 |
1 |
0 |
158 |
Singapore |
1012,27 |
3 |
11,49 |
159 |
Indonesia |
1001,61 |
1 |
0 |
160 |
New Caledonia |
999,70 |
-7 |
-35,42 |
161 |
South Sudan |
998,45 |
7 |
20,64 |
162 |
Papua New Guinea |
997,60 |
3 |
7,05 |
163 |
Vanuatu |
995,62 |
1 |
0 |
164 |
Tahiti |
995,11 |
-5 |
-19,16 |
165 |
Fiji |
988,30 |
-3 |
-7,97 |
166 |
Barbados |
987,52 |
-3 |
-8,42 |
167 |
Bermuda |
982,43 |
-1 |
0 |
168 |
Nepal |
978,86 |
-1 |
-3,36 |
169 |
Malta |
971,56 |
5 |
12,61 |
170 |
Grenada |
968,49 |
-1 |
-5,54 |
171 |
Cambodia |
966,61 |
0 |
0 |
172 |
Guyana |
966,38 |
3 |
7,51 |
173 |
Puerto Rico |
962,77 |
-1 |
0 |
174 |
Belize |
962,21 |
-4 |
-5,21 |
175 |
St. Vincent and the Grenadines |
960,71 |
-2 |
0 |
176 |
St. Lucia |
953,45 |
1 |
0 |
177 |
Cuba |
950,91 |
2 |
1,95 |
178 |
Montserrat |
950,71 |
0 |
0 |
179 |
Mauritius |
940,47 |
-3 |
-14,71 |
180 |
Moldova |
932,79 |
1 |
5,94 |
181 |
Chad |
931,98 |
-1 |
-3,02 |
182 |
Macau |
922,10 |
0 |
0 |
183 |
Sao Tomé e PrÃncipe |
917,62 |
6 |
14,31 |
184 |
Dominica |
916,72 |
-1 |
0 |
185 |
Laos |
914,66 |
2 |
10,06 |
186 |
Mongolia |
911,49 |
-2 |
-5,19 |
187 |
Bhutan |
910,96 |
-2 |
0 |
188 |
Bangladesh |
903,98 |
-2 |
-3,85 |
189 |
American Samoa |
900,27 |
1 |
0 |
190 |
Cook Islands |
899,33 |
- |
-8,67 |
191 |
Brunei Darussalam |
898,96 |
-3 |
-4,94 |
192 |
Liechtenstein |
895,08 |
-1 |
-4,44 |
193 |
Samoa |
894,26 |
0 |
0 |
194 |
Djibouti |
875,98 |
-2 |
-20,64 |
195 |
Cayman Islands |
873,64 |
0 |
0 |
196 |
Seychelles |
866,94 |
0 |
-3,69 |
197 |
Pakistan |
866,81 |
0 |
0 |
198 |
Timor-Leste |
865,47 |
0 |
0 |
199 |
Tonga |
861,81 |
0 |
0 |
200 |
Aruba |
859,97 |
0 |
0 |
201 |
Bahamas |
858,50 |
0 |
0 |
202 |
Somalia |
857,39 |
-8 |
-16,32 |
203 |
Gibraltar |
857,20 |
0 |
3,60 |
204 |
Eritrea |
855,56 |
-2 |
0 |
205 |
Sri Lanka |
842,93 |
-1 |
0 |
206 |
Turks and Caicos Islands |
839,84 |
-1 |
0 |
207 |
Guam |
838,33 |
-1 |
0 |
208 |
US Virgin Islands |
816,13 |
-1 |
0 |
209 |
British Virgin Islands |
812,94 |
-1 |
0 |
210 |
Anguilla |
792,34 |
-1 |
0 |
211 |
San Marino |
776,97 |
-1 |
-3,36 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
So, Canada didn't manage a win in Panama after all. Bad elo !
ReplyDeleteAs a result Canada stays in pot 4 and Tunisia stays in pot 3.
First of all, let me congrat Ed for his amazing work.
ReplyDeleteSecondly, just a quick answer to our friend anonymous, regarding the post on 19 November 2020. I give you that you were right, Portugal didin´t qualify as top of its group, tehy conceded a last minute goal against Serbia at home and tehy were denied a winner goal in last minute at Serbia, in which the ball was totally in but there was no VAR in that game. You said "Hey, whoever is interested in making lots of money out there just listen to me and make these bets where they have such bets. Bet on that Portugal will not win their 2022 European World Cup qualifying Group & bet that Portugal will not qualify for the 2022 World Cup" and "Portugal will not win their group. They might not even come in second in their group and qualify for the playoffs. But even if they do manage to somehow squeak into the playoffs, they will not win two separate games against two different opponents. Guys trust me on this. I know what I am talking about. I know it and I feel it. Portugal will fail to qualify for the 2022 World Cup. I have two guarantees that I will make. (1) Portugal will fail to qualify for the 2022 World Cup"... My friend, I´m glad you don´t gamble, but maybe you are "owing" money to a lot of people :) I also hope, as you said, being an "historian of the sport", that you learn when it matters, Portugal rarely doesn´t deliver. I also hope that you get better "fellings" next time, otherwise, just don´t go with your gut... :D
Good luck for the draw tomorrow, Portugal will loose the 3 games for sure... :)
The problem with Guinea Bissau. They won 2 friendly games, but the rating did not increase
ReplyDeleteFIFA excluded and I included:
ReplyDelete2022-03-23 Equatorial Guinea - Guinea-Bissau 0:3 friendly tournament in Portugal
2022-03-25 Trinidad and Tobago - Barbados 9:0 friendly tournament in Trinidad and Tobago
2022-03-26 Angola - Guinea-Bissau 3:2 friendly tournament in Portugal
2022-03-26 Bahrain - Burundi 1:0 friendly in Bahrain
2022-03-27 Guyana - Barbados 5:0 friendly tournament in Trinidad and Tobago
2022-03-27 Sierra Leone - Liberia 1:0 friendly in Turkey
2022-03-27 Zambia - Benin 1:2 friendly in Turkey
2022-03-29 Equatorial Guinea - Angola 0:0 friendly tournament in Portugal
FIFA included and I excluded:
2022-03-28 Fiji - Vanuatu 2:1 friendly in Qatar
Sorry. Many sources indicate that Guinea Bissau won against Angola
DeleteYeah, you are right about the confusion: Soccerway had a GNB-win, RoonBa an ANG-win. The third source I checked was elo-ratings and they also had an Angolan win, that's why I have that in my database.
DeleteAnyway, water under the bridge, FIFA excluded that complete friendly tournament in Portugal.
Why my country #Rwanda always above 130 why
ReplyDeleteWill you be running simulations for the June UEFA, AFC and intercontinental playoffs ?
ReplyDeleteYes, this is a very quiet period NT-football wise, but from about mid May on I will report again concerning ranking previews, simulations etc.
ReplyDeleteHey Ed, just wondering if you think Chile's appeal against Ecuador's alleged ineligible player has any substance and what sort of chaos might ensue with the group draw if the appeal is successful? Would Chile simply replace Ecuador in Group A for example, or would there be wider ramifications and some potential complaints from Peru or Colombia?
ReplyDeleteWell, at least substance enough for FIFA to investigate it properly. But the consequences could indeed be vast.
ReplyDeleteIf the appeal is honored then the matches with the ineligible Ecuadorian player Byron Castillo should according to the FIFA-rules result in a 3:0 forfeit loss for Ecuador. The WC-qualifiers with this player involved were:
sep-2020
MD 9 : Ecuador-Paraguay 2-0
MD 6 : Ecuador-Chile 0-0 (57 min: subbed in)
MD 10: Uruguay-Ecuador 1-0
okt-2020
MD 11: Ecuador-Bolivia 3-0
nov-2020
MD 13: Ecuador-Venezuela 1-0
MD 14: Chile-Ecuador 0-2
mar-2021
MD 18: Ecuador-Argentina 1-1
This would lead to the following adapted final standing in the CONMEBOL group:
BRA - 45
ARG - 41
URU - 28
CHI - 24 GD +1
PER - 24 GD -3
COL - 23
PAR - 19
BOL - 18
VEN - 13
ECU - 12
And Chile replaces Ecuador as qualified team. Peru remains the number 5 and would still go to the IPO.
A few of the problems/questions that would arise for FIFA:
- should the April 2022 ranking (the seeding ranking for the draw) be revised with these adapted match results ?
- Chile occupied spot 28 (= pot 3) in the original April ranking. A simple replacement of Ecuador (pot 4) by Chile seems therefore not fair. Should the draw be completely redone ?
- If the draw is redone then must we wait until after the June window and all berths are known and all teams could be properly seeded ? And what seeding ranking to use then ? The june ranking ?
Exciting prospects, but I expect that FIFA will find a way to dismiss this appeal or simply replace Ecuador with Chile in case this appeal is solid.