This June window the group stage starts in the qualification for the AFCON 2023 in Cote d'Ivoire in June next year. In March preliminary play-offs were played to wittle the 54 entered African teams down to 48. Now the group stage with 12 groups of 4 teams starts with two matchdays in June, two in September and two in March next year. The 12 group winners and runners-up qualify for the 24-team continental final.
Notes:
- Host Cote d'Ivoire participates in this qualification. In their group H only the highest ranked team, besides the host, qualifies.
- Kenya and Zimbabwe were included in the group stage draw but last week suspended for this tournament after all because their ongoing FIFA suspension -because of unpermitted governmental interference with the national football association- wasn't lifted in time. Thus, groups C and K are reduced to 3 teams, of which the best 2 qualify.
Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.
The group results with teams ordered by average group position:
|
group A |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
|
Nigeria |
78,30 |
17,69 |
3,97 |
0,04 |
|
Guinea-Bissau |
13,56 |
47,58 |
35,71 |
3,15 |
|
Sierra Leone |
8,11 |
33,71 |
53,56 |
4,62 |
|
Mauritius |
0,03 |
1,02 |
6,76 |
92,19 |
|
group B |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
|
Burkina Faso |
47,66 |
32,08 |
14,41 |
5,85 |
|
Cape Verde Islands |
37,90 |
33,57 |
20,00 |
8,53 |
|
Togo |
9,96 |
22,16 |
36,78 |
31,10 |
|
Eswatini |
4,48 |
12,19 |
28,81 |
54,52 |
|
group C |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
|
|
Cameroon |
88,37 |
10,22 |
1,41 |
|
|
Namibia |
8,63 |
52,11 |
39,26 |
|
|
Burundi |
3,00 |
37,67 |
59,33 |
|
|
group D |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
|
Egypt |
88,68 |
9,39 |
1,60 |
0,33 |
|
Guinea |
6,65 |
40,35 |
30,76 |
22,24 |
|
Ethiopia |
1,98 |
25,49 |
34,91 |
37,62 |
|
Malawi |
2,69 |
24,77 |
32,73 |
39,81 |
|
group E |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
|
Ghana |
64,38 |
22,39 |
9,52 |
3,71 |
|
Angola |
18,59 |
34,57 |
29,00 |
17,84 |
|
Madagascar |
11,41 |
26,26 |
33,15 |
29,18 |
|
Central African Republic |
5,62 |
16,78 |
28,33 |
49,27 |
|
group F |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
|
Algeria |
82,17 |
14,33 |
3,08 |
0,42 |
|
Uganda |
12,23 |
49,48 |
27,68 |
10,61 |
|
Tanzania |
4,54 |
26,58 |
43,07 |
25,81 |
|
Niger |
1,06 |
9,61 |
26,17 |
63,16 |
|
group G |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
|
Mali |
77,97 |
18,58 |
3,34 |
0,11 |
|
Gambia |
17,09 |
53,84 |
24,16 |
4,91 |
|
Congo |
4,74 |
23,98 |
54,28 |
17,00 |
|
South Sudan |
0,20 |
3,60 |
18,22 |
77,98 |
|
group H |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
|
Cote d'Ivoire |
88,75 |
10,26 |
0,91 |
0,08 |
|
Zambia |
9,31 |
59,66 |
23,45 |
7,58 |
|
Comoros |
1,69 |
21,73 |
46,54 |
30,04 |
|
Lesotho |
0,25 |
8,35 |
29,10 |
62,30 |
|
group I |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
|
Congo DR |
47,18 |
29,17 |
15,70 |
7,95 |
|
Gabon |
32,58 |
32,74 |
22,45 |
12,23 |
|
Mauritania |
11,49 |
21,34 |
31,59 |
35,58 |
|
Sudan |
8,75 |
16,75 |
30,26 |
44,24 |
|
group J |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
|
Tunisia |
69,84 |
20,84 |
6,81 |
2,51 |
|
Equatorial Guinea |
18,22 |
41,25 |
26,83 |
13,70 |
|
Libya |
7,18 |
21,06 |
35,42 |
36,34 |
|
Botswana |
4,76 |
16,85 |
30,94 |
47,45 |
|
group K |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
|
|
Morocco |
82,00 |
17,20 |
0,80 |
|
|
South Africa |
17,39 |
67,60 |
15,01 |
|
|
Liberia |
0,61 |
15,20 |
84,19 |
|
|
group L |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
|
Senegal |
85,72 |
12,31 |
1,78 |
0,19 |
|
Benin |
11,63 |
56,76 |
23,17 |
8,44 |
|
Rwanda |
1,51 |
15,95 |
39,54 |
43,00 |
|
Mozambique |
1,14 |
14,98 |
35,51 |
48,37 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
No comments:
Post a Comment