CONCACAF Nations League 2022/23 simulations (May 2022)

The second edition of the CONCACAF Nations League starts in this June window. All 41 CONCACAF-members participate and are drawn in three leagues:

• league A has 4 groups of 3 teams
• league B has 4 groups of 4 teams
• league C has 1 group of 4 teams and 3 groups of 3 teams

There are 4 match days in June and 2 in March next year. The four group winners in league A qualify for the Final Four in June 2023.

There is also promotion/relegation between the leagues: the winners of the groups in leagues B and C are promoted while the numbers last in each group in league A and B relegate. The draw of the groups was in April and seeded based on the CONCACAF ranking.

The Nations League serves as qualification tournament for the 16-team Gold Cup 2023:

• numbers 1 and 2 from each group in league A are qualified, as are the 4 group winners in league B (12 teams in total)
• the group numbers last in league A, the group runners-up in league B and the group winners in league C (12 teams in total) qualify for the second qualification round for the Gold Cup, a series of play-offs to determine the final 3 berths. These play-offs will be played in June 2023
• the anomaly exists that Qatar as an invitee is directly qualified for the Gold Cup 2023, although the current match calendar shows a complete overlap with the 24-team AFC Nations Cup 2023 in June/July 2023 for which Qatar is also qualified (and they are also the defending Asian champions). How this scheduling conflict will be solved is yet unclear.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

group A-1	1st	2nd	3rd
Mexico	88,65	10,59	0,76
Jamaica	10,12	69,63	20,25
Suriname	1,23	19,78	78,99
group A-2	1st	2nd	3rd
Costa Rica	68,70	26,17	5,13
Panama	28,04	54,25	17,71
Martinique	3,26	19,58	77,16
group A-3	1st	2nd	3rd
Canada	89,79	9,05	1,16
Honduras	5,94	50,21	43,85
Curacao	4,27	40,74	54,99
group A-4	1st	2nd	3rd
USA	90,37	9,50	0,13
El Salvador	9,54	83,79	6,67
Grenada	0,09	6,71	93,20
group B-1	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Cuba	52,34	29,12	14,09	4,45
Guadeloupe	31,35	37,03	22,71	8,91
Antigua and Barbuda	13,36	24,95	39,98	21,71
Barbados	2,95	8,90	23,22	64,93
group B-2	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Haiti	78,77	16,79	4,17	0,27
Bermuda	13,11	47,73	35,46	3,70
Guyana	8,08	33,68	51,23	7,01
Montserrat	0,04	1,80	9,14	89,02
group B-3	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Trinidad and Tobago	63,41	27,59	8,49	0,51
Nicaragua	27,11	44,56	24,87	3,46
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	9,26	25,66	52,81	12,27
Bahamas	0,22	2,19	13,83	83,76
group B-4	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Guatemala	79,33	15,64	4,14	0,89
French Guyana	12,93	43,20	28,39	15,48
Dominican Republic	5,19	25,54	36,19	33,08
Belize	2,55	15,62	31,28	50,55
group C-1	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Bonaire	55,04	26,41	12,91	5,64
Turks and Caicos Islands	21,36	32,08	27,95	18,61
St. Maarten	17,17	25,78	31,11	25,94
US Virgin Islands	6,43	15,73	28,03	49,81
group C-2	1st	2nd	3rd
St. Kitts and Nevis	89,90	8,71	1,39
Aruba	4,87	49,50	45,63
St. Martin	5,23	41,79	52,98
group C-3	1st	2nd	3rd
St. Lucia	49,67	47,79	2,54
Dominica	49,75	46,98	3,27
Anguilla	0,58	5,23	94,19
group C-4	1st	2nd	3rd
Puerto Rico	75,38	22,83	1,79
Cayman Islands	23,27	65,13	11,60
British Virgin Islands	1,35	12,04	86,61

The probabilities to qualify for the Final Four from league A:

USA	90,37
Canada	89,79
Mexico	88,65
Costa Rica	68,70
Panama	28,04
Jamaica	10,12
El Salvador	9,54
Honduras	5,94
Curacao	4,27
Martinique	3,26
Suriname	1,23
Grenada	0,09

To qualify for the final. In square brackets the probability to qualify for the final, given qualification for the Final Four as a League A group winner:

Canada	74,17		[82,60]
Mexico	70,97		[80,06]
USA	24,66		[27,29]
Costa Rica	17,70		[25,76]
Panama	4,94		[17,62]
Jamaica	3,46		[34,19]
Honduras	1,76		[29,63]
Curacao	1,24		[29,04]
El Salvador	0,76		[7,97]
Martinique	0,19		[5,83]
Suriname	0,15		[12,20]
Grenada	0,00		[0,00]

To win the Nations League. In square brackets the probability to win, given qualification for the final:

Canada	53,50		[72,13]
Mexico	23,54		[33,17]
Costa Rica	11,84		[66,89]
USA	8,22		[33,33]
Panama	1,71		[34,62]
Honduras	0,42		[23,86]
Jamaica	0,37		[10,69]
Curacao	0,25		[20,16]
El Salvador	0,10		[13,16]
Martinique	0,04		[21,05]
Suriname	0,01		[6,67]
Grenada	0,00		[0,00]

To qualify for the Gold Cup 2023:

USA	99,87
Mexico	99,24
Canada	98,84
Costa Rica	94,87
El Salvador	93,33
Panama	82,29
Jamaica	79,75
Guatemala	79,33
Haiti	78,77
Trinidad and Tobago	63,41
Honduras	56,15
Cuba	52,34
Curacao	45,01
Guadeloupe	31,35
Nicaragua	27,11
Martinique	22,84
Suriname	21,01
Antigua and Barbuda	13,36
Bermuda	13,11
French Guyana	12,93
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	9,26
Guyana	8,08
Grenada	6,80
Dominican Republic	5,19
Barbados	2,95
Belize	2,55
Bahamas	0,22
Montserrat	0,04
US Virgin Islands	0,00
Bonaire	0,00
Turks and Caicos Islands	0,00
St. Maarten	0,00
St. Kitts and Nevis	0,00
Aruba	0,00
St. Martin	0,00
Dominica	0,00
St. Lucia	0,00
Anguilla	0,00
Puerto Rico	0,00
Cayman Islands	0,00
British Virgin Islands	0,00

To qualify for the Gold Cup 2023 second qualification round (play-offs):

Grenada	93,20
St. Kitts and Nevis	89,90
Suriname	78,99
Martinique	77,16
Puerto Rico	75,38
Bonaire	55,04
Curacao	54,99
Dominica	49,75
St. Lucia	49,67
Bermuda	47,73
Nicaragua	44,56
Honduras	43,85
French Guyana	43,20
Guadeloupe	37,03
Guyana	33,68
Cuba	29,12
Trinidad and Tobago	27,59
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	25,66
Dominican Republic	25,54
Antigua and Barbuda	24,95
Cayman Islands	23,27
Turks and Caicos Islands	21,36
Jamaica	20,25
Panama	17,71
St. Maarten	17,17
Haiti	16,79
Guatemala	15,64
Belize	15,62
Barbados	8,90
El Salvador	6,67
US Virgin Islands	6,43
St. Martin	5,23
Costa Rica	5,13
Aruba	4,87
Bahamas	2,19
Montserrat	1,80
British Virgin Islands	1,35
Canada	1,16
Mexico	0,76
Anguilla	0,58
USA	0,13

---

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.