UEFA Nations League 2022/23 simulations (May 2022)

Let's focus on the UEFA Nations League 2022/2023. 

This competition will be played on six matchdays (4 this June window, 2 in the September window), with a Final Four (2 one-off semi-finals, a third place play-off and a final) in June next year.

There are 4 leagues, A - D. All leagues, except league D, consist of 4 groups with 4 teams per group. League D consists of two groups, one with 4 teams and one with 3 teams. All teams in a group play against each other home and away. 

Russia is suspended for this competition; they were originally drawn in group B-2.

An overall UNL-ranking per league is compiled after the group stage. Teams will be ordered by:

• position in the group
• points
• goal-difference
• goals scored
• away goals scored
• number of wins
• number of away wins
• fair-play
• position in the UEFA Nations League 2022/23 Access List

Notes: 

- ordering of the group winners in league A will be decided in the Final Four;

- Russia will be ranked as last team in league B (number 32) in the overall UNL-ranking;

- in league D the ranking of the group numbers 1 to 3 will be based on the group matches against numbers 1 to 3 in the group.

This overall UNL-ranking is used to seed the draw on October 9th 2022 for the qualifying stage of EURO 2024, which will run from March to November 2023 and will consist of 10 groups of 5 or 6 teams. The group numbers one and two qualify for EURO 2024. Germany as host will not participate in this qualification. 

After that qualifying phase 12 teams that have not directly qualified for EURO 2024, will have another chance to gain one of the last 3 qualifying berths for EURO 2024 via play-offs, to be played in March 2024. 

The 12 eligible teams and match-ups are determined in a somewhat complex procedure, but that procedure is also based on the UNL-rankings per league. So there is some importance in getting good results in the UNL 2022 group stage.

There is also promotion/relegation between leagues to compose the leagues for the next UNL edition: each group-winner in leagues B-D is promoted, each group-last in leagues A-B is relegated. Two play-outs between the 4 group numbers 4 in league C are played in March 2024 to determine which two teams relegate to league D.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. 

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

group A-1	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
France	71,27	20,57	6,70	1,46
Denmark	18,00	43,49	27,23	11,28
Croatia	8,85	27,22	41,20	22,73
Austria	1,88	8,72	24,87	64,53
group A-2	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Spain	46,09	28,53	16,93	8,45
Portugal	30,25	31,58	24,64	13,53
Switzerland	17,14	25,61	30,81	26,44
Czech Republic	6,52	14,28	27,62	51,58
group A-3	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
England	42,84	30,68	20,41	6,07
Italy	30,65	32,35	28,07	8,93
Germany	24,86	31,07	33,10	10,97
Hungary	1,65	5,90	18,42	74,03
group A-4	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Belgium	62,33	24,00	10,01	3,66
Netherlands	22,93	37,35	25,40	14,32
Wales	8,82	22,23	32,99	35,96
Poland	5,92	16,42	31,60	46,06
group B-1	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Ukraine	46,89	27,80	18,62	6,69
Scotland	26,97	34,18	27,94	10,91
Republic of Ireland	23,18	28,91	31,50	16,41
Armenia	2,96	9,11	21,94	65,99
group B-2	1st	2nd	3rd
Israel	43,45	33,18	23,37
Albania	32,68	34,44	32,88
Iceland	23,87	32,38	43,75
group B-3	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Finland	43,07	28,88	19,01	9,04
Romania	30,99	29,31	24,05	15,65
Bosnia-Herzegovina	17,69	24,80	29,58	27,93
Montenegro	8,25	17,01	27,36	47,38
group B-4	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Serbia	42,73	29,39	19,41	8,47
Sweden	32,97	30,43	23,64	12,96
Norway	18,65	27,15	31,93	22,27
Slovenia	5,65	13,03	25,02	56,30
group C-1	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Turkey	88,43	9,53	1,76	0,28
Luxembourg	7,22	45,22	30,14	17,42
Lithuania	3,26	28,92	37,29	30,53
Faroe Islands	1,09	16,33	30,81	51,77
group C-2	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Greece	52,85	29,22	14,02	3,91
Northern Ireland	31,48	36,89	23,06	8,57
Kosovo	13,43	25,57	40,28	20,72
Cyprus	2,24	8,32	22,64	66,80
group C-3	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Slovakia	82,72	13,14	3,33	0,81
Belarus	10,10	41,79	29,16	18,95
Kazakhstan	4,27	25,85	34,84	35,04
Azerbaijan	2,91	19,22	32,67	45,20
group C-4	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
North Macedonia	54,22	30,78	14,69	0,31
Georgia	28,28	37,56	33,11	1,05
Bulgaria	17,48	31,44	48,91	2,17
Gibraltar	0,02	0,22	3,29	96,47
group D-1	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Latvia	62,80	24,36	9,38	3,46
Moldova	23,01	37,08	25,30	14,61
Liechtenstein	7,72	19,75	32,65	39,88
Andorra	6,47	18,81	32,67	42,05
group D-2	1st	2nd	3rd
Estonia	67,78	31,77	0,45
Malta	32,10	65,56	2,34
San Marino	0,12	2,67	97,21

The probabilities to qualify for the Final Four from league A:

France	71,27
Belgium	62,33
Spain	46,09
England	42,84
Italy	30,65
Portugal	30,25
Germany	24,86
Netherlands	22,93
Denmark	18,00
Switzerland	17,14
Croatia	8,85
Wales	8,82
Czech Republic	6,52
Poland	5,92
Austria	1,88
Hungary	1,65

To qualify for the final. In square brackets the probability to qualify for the final, given qualification for the Final Four as a League A group winner:

France	58,86		[82,59]
England	34,21		[79,86]
Italy	23,40		[76,35]
Germany	18,37		[73,89]
Belgium	18,27		[29,31]
Spain	12,43		[26,97]
Denmark	11,95		[66,39]
Portugal	6,77		[22,38]
Croatia	4,53		[51,19]
Netherlands	4,07		[17,75]
Switzerland	3,34		[19,49]
Wales	1,28		[14,51]
Czech Republic	0,96		[14,72]
Austria	0,57		[30,32]
Hungary	0,52		[31,52]
Poland	0,47		[7,94]

To win the Nations League. In square brackets the probability to win, given qualification for the final:

England	24,78		[72,43]
France	22,42		[38,09]
Italy	15,74		[67,26]
Germany	11,15		[60,70]
Spain	9,16		[73,69]
Belgium	5,82		[31,86]
Portugal	4,56		[67,36]
Denmark	2,22		[18,58]
Switzerland	1,98		[59,28]
Netherlands	0,75		[18,43]
Croatia	0,62		[13,69]
Czech Republic	0,41		[42,71]
Hungary	0,16		[30,77]
Wales	0,16		[12,50]
Poland	0,05		[10,64]
Austria	0,02		[3,51]

Each simulation results in an overall UNL-ranking. Here is the resulting overall UNL-ranking with teams ordered by ascending average position. This ranking is used to seed the draw for the EURO 2024 qualification groups. The probabilities for a team to end in each pot are also given:

team	pot 1	pot 2	pot 3	pot 4	pot 5	pot 6
France	96,84	3,16	0	0	0	0
Belgium	93,15	6,85	0	0	0	0
Spain	85,86	14,14	0	0	0	0
England	87,42	12,58	0	0	0	0
Italy	80,37	19,63	0	0	0	0
Portugal	75,90	24,10	0	0	0	0
Denmark	75,30	24,70	0	0	0	0
Netherlands	73,11	26,89	0	0	0	0
Switzerland	59,01	40,99	0	0	0	0
Croatia	53,31	46,69	0	0	0	0
--------------------------
Wales	45,25	54,75	0	0	0	0
Poland	35,04	64,96	0	0	0	0
Czech Republic	32,68	67,32	0	0	0	0
Austria	17,32	82,68	0	0	0	0
Hungary	14,12	85,88	0	0	0	0
Ukraine	0	46,89	51,76	1,35	0	0
Serbia	0	42,73	56,04	1,23	0	0
Finland	0	43,07	55,52	1,41	0	0
Sweden	0	32,97	64,30	2,73	0	0
Scotland	0	26,97	70,10	2,93	0	0
--------------------------
Romania	0	30,99	65,86	3,15	0	0
Israel	0	43,45	56,55	0	0	0
Republic of Ireland	0	23,18	72,11	4,71	0	0
Albania	0	32,68	67,32	0	0	0
Norway	0	18,65	75,90	5,45	0	0
Iceland	0	23,87	76,13	0	0	0
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0	17,69	75,23	7,08	0	0
Montenegro	0	8,25	75,63	16,12	0	0
Slovenia	0	5,65	72,32	22,03	0	0
Armenia	0	2,96	65,23	31,81	0	0
--------------------------
Russia	0	0	0	100,00	0	0
Turkey	0	0	0	97,96	2,04	0
Slovakia	0	0	0	95,86	4,14	0
North Macedonia	0	0	0	85,00	15,00	0
Greece	0	0	0	82,07	17,93	0
Georgia	0	0	0	65,84	34,16	0
Northern Ireland	0	0	0	68,37	31,63	0
Bulgaria	0	0	0	48,92	51,08	0
Belarus	0	0	0	51,89	48,11	0
Luxembourg	0	0	0	52,44	47,56	0
--------------------------
Kosovo	0	0	0	39,00	61,00	0
Lithuania	0	0	0	32,18	67,82	0
Kazakhstan	0	0	0	30,12	69,88	0
Azerbaijan	0	0	0	22,13	77,87	0
Faroe Islands	0	0	0	17,42	82,58	0
Cyprus	0	0	0	10,56	89,44	0
Gibraltar	0	0	0	0,24	99,76	0
Latvia	0	0	0	0	62,80	37,20
Estonia	0	0	0	0	67,78	32,22
Malta	0	0	0	0	32,10	67,90
--------------------------
Moldova	0	0	0	0	23,01	76,99
Liechtenstein	0	0	0	0	7,72	92,28
Andorra	0	0	0	0	6,47	93,53
San Marino	0	0	0	0	0,12	99,88

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.