UEFA Nations League 2022/23 simulations (June 2022)

The June window saw 4 match days in the group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2022/2023. The remaining two match days will be played in the September window.

There were in league A some quite surprising results: notably France and England -although not playing with obviously weakened teams- performed well below par. On the other hand Hungary, Croatia, Denmark and the Netherlands performed much better than expected.

In league B the effect of Russia's suspension on the way the overall UNL ranking will be calculated is not published by UEFA. I assume the teams in league B finishing on positions one to three in each group are sorted in the UNL ranking on group results without the matches against the group number four taken into account. That way the results of the teams in group B-2 are comparable with the other teams in league B.

This overall UNL-ranking is used to seed the draw on October 9th 2022 for the qualifying stage of EURO 2024, which will run from March to November 2023 and will consist of 10 groups of 5 or 6 teams. The group numbers one and two qualify for EURO 2024. Germany as host will not participate in this qualification. 

After that qualifying phase 12 teams that have not directly qualified for EURO 2024, will have another chance to gain one of the last 3 qualifying berths for EURO 2024 via play-offs, to be played in March 2024. 

The 12 eligible teams and match-ups are determined in a somewhat complex procedure, but that procedure is also based on the UNL-rankings per league. So there is some importance in getting good results in the UNL 2022 group stage.

There is also promotion/relegation between leagues to compose the leagues for the next UNL edition: each group-winner in leagues B-D is promoted, each group-last in leagues A-B is relegated. Two play-outs between the 4 group numbers 4 in league C are played in March 2024 to determine which two teams relegate to league D.

Here are the probabilities (in %) after the matches in the June window -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. 

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

group A-1	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denmark	64,67	34,95	0,38	0,00
Croatia	34,74	48,71	13,91	2,64
France	0,00	2,64	56,97	40,39
Austria	0,59	13,70	28,74	56,97
group A-2	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Spain	60,48	34,43	5,09	0,00
Portugal	38,40	52,21	9,33	0,06
Czech Republic	0,26	8,17	44,85	46,72
Switzerland	0,86	5,19	40,73	53,22
group A-3	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Germany	51,63	32,75	13,75	1,87
Hungary	28,84	30,07	38,34	2,75
Italy	19,53	31,04	32,80	16,63
England	0,00	6,14	15,11	78,75
group A-4	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Netherlands	85,30	12,76	1,94	0,00
Belgium	14,70	81,29	4,01	0,00
Poland	0,00	3,87	71,41	24,72
Wales	0,00	2,08	22,64	75,28
group B-1	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Ukraine	76,99	21,63	1,38	0,00
Scotland	22,30	48,99	28,25	0,46
Republic of Ireland	0,71	28,48	58,51	12,30
Armenia	0,00	0,90	11,86	87,24
group B-2	1st	2nd	3rd
Israel	80,42	19,58	0,00
Albania	11,54	44,99	43,47
Iceland	8,04	35,43	56,53
group B-3	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Bosnia-Herzegovina	70,89	24,73	4,38	0,00
Montenegro	24,71	39,66	34,32	1,31
Finland	4,00	30,94	42,86	22,20
Romania	0,40	4,67	18,44	76,49
group B-4	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Norway	80,79	19,21	0,00	0,00
Serbia	19,21	69,59	11,20	0,00
Sweden	0,00	10,83	72,40	16,77
Slovenia	0,00	0,37	16,40	83,23
group C-1	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Turkey	99,67	0,33	0,00	0,00
Luxembourg	0,33	98,32	1,35	0,00
Faroe Islands	0,00	1,35	86,65	12,00
Lithuania	0,00	0,00	12,00	88,00
group C-2	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Greece	100,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Kosovo	0,00	96,16	3,48	0,36
Northern Ireland	0,00	2,24	60,66	37,10
Cyprus	0,00	1,60	35,86	62,54
group C-3	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Kazakhstan	83,92	16,08	0,00	0,00
Slovakia	15,95	80,40	3,26	0,39
Azerbaijan	0,13	3,35	85,71	10,81
Belarus	0,00	0,17	11,03	88,80
group C-4	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Georgia	96,46	3,54	0,00	0,00
North Macedonia	3,54	86,29	10,17	0,00
Bulgaria	0,00	10,17	87,82	2,01
Gibraltar	0,00	0,00	2,01	97,99
group D-1	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Latvia	97,94	2,06	0,00	0,00
Moldova	2,06	95,62	2,32	0,00
Andorra	0,00	2,32	88,16	9,52
Liechtenstein	0,00	0,00	9,52	90,48
group D-2	1st	2nd	3rd
Estonia	92,09	7,91	0,00
Malta	7,91	92,09	0,00
San Marino	0,00	0,00	100,00

The probabilities to qualify for the Final Four from league A. In the last column the difference in percent point compared to the simulations before the start of the UNL group stage:

Netherlands	85,30				62,37
Denmark	64,67				46,67
Spain	60,48				14,39
Germany	51,63				26,77
Portugal	38,40				8,15
Croatia	34,74				25,89
Hungary	28,84				27,19
Italy	19,53				-11,12
Belgium	14,70				-47,63
Switzerland	0,86				-16,28
Austria	0,59				-1,29
Czech Republic	0,26				-6,26
France	0,00				-71,27
England	0,00				-42,84
Wales	0,00				-8,82
Poland	0,00				-5,92

To qualify for the final. In square brackets the probability to qualify for the final, given qualification for the Final Four as a League A group winner. In the last column the difference in percent point compared to the simulations before the start of the UNL group stage:

Denmark	45,73		[70,71]		33,78
Germany	36,23		[70,17]		17,86
Netherlands	29,76		[34,89]		25,69
Spain	28,06		[46,40]		15,63
Croatia	16,53		[47,58]		12,00
Portugal	13,97		[36,38]		7,20
Italy	12,93		[66,21]		-10,47
Hungary	8,60		[29,82]		8,08
Belgium	7,74		[52,65]		-10,53
Austria	0,24		[40,68]		-0,33
Switzerland	0,15		[17,44]		-3,19
Czech Republic	0,06		[23,08]		-0,90
France	0,00		[0,00]		-58,86
England	0,00		[0,00]		-34,21
Wales	0,00		[0,00]		-1,28
Poland	0,00		[0,00]		-0,47

To win the Nations League. In square brackets the probability to win, given qualification for the final.  In the last column the difference in percent point compared to the simulations before the start of the UNL group stage:

Germany	27,87		[76,93]		16,72
Spain	23,24		[82,82]		14,08
Portugal	11,05		[79,10]		6,49
Denmark	10,16		[22,22]		7,94
Italy	9,56		[73,94]		-6,18
Netherlands	8,53		[28,66]		7,78
Hungary	4,11		[47,79]		3,95
Belgium	2,66		[34,37]		-3,16
Croatia	2,63		[15,91]		2,01
Switzerland	0,11		[73,33]		-1,87
Czech Republic	0,05		[83,33]		-0,36
Austria	0,03		[12,50]		0,01
England	0,00		[0,00]		-24,78
France	0,00		[0,00]		-22,42
Wales	0,00		[0,00]		-0,16
Poland	0,00		[0,00]		-0,05

Each simulation results in an overall UNL-ranking. Here is the resulting overall UNL-ranking with teams ordered by ascending average position (with Germany excluded). This ranking is used to seed the draw for the EURO 2024 qualification groups. The probabilities for a team to end in each pot are also given:

team	pot 1	pot 2	pot 3	pot 4	pot 5	pot 6
Denmark	100,00	0	0	0	0	0
Spain	99,99	0,01	0	0	0	0
Netherlands	100,00	0	0	0	0	0
Portugal	99,62	0,38	0	0	0	0
Croatia	95,76	4,24	0	0	0	0
Belgium	99,75	0,25	0	0	0	0
Hungary	96,58	3,42	0	0	0	0
Italy	81,38	18,62	0	0	0	0
France	44,48	55,52	0	0	0	0
Poland	41,66	58,34	0	0	0	0
--------------------------
Austria	39,53	60,47	0	0	0	0
Czech Republic	43,84	56,16	0	0	0	0
Switzerland	33,94	66,06	0	0	0	0
England	17,50	82,50	0	0	0	0
Wales	5,97	94,03	0	0	0	0
Norway	0	95,73	4,27	0	0	0
Ukraine	0	81,23	18,77	0	0	0
Israel	0	82,70	17,30	0	0	0
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0	75,22	24,78	0	0	0
Serbia	0	40,39	59,61	0	0	0
--------------------------
Scotland	0	29,34	70,66	0	0	0
Montenegro	0	33,30	66,70	0	0	0
Albania	0	13,35	86,65	0	0	0
Iceland	0	12,36	87,64	0	0	0
Republic of Ireland	0	14,95	85,05	0	0	0
Finland	0	19,45	80,55	0	0	0
Sweden	0	0	100,00	0	0	0
Slovenia	0	0,03	99,97	0	0	0
Romania	0	1,67	98,33	0	0	0
Armenia	0	0,28	99,72	0	0	0
--------------------------
Russia	0	0	0	100,00	0	0
Turkey	0	0	0	100,00	0	0
Greece	0	0	0	100,00	0	0
Georgia	0	0	0	100,00	0	0
Kazakhstan	0	0	0	100,00	0	0
Slovakia	0	0	0	98,90	1,10	0
North Macedonia	0	0	0	97,86	2,14	0
Luxembourg	0	0	0	99,44	0,56	0
Kosovo	0	0	0	96,94	3,06	0
Bulgaria	0	0	0	45,21	54,79	0
--------------------------
Azerbaijan	0	0	0	30,32	69,68	0
Faroe Islands	0	0	0	17,02	82,98	0
Northern Ireland	0	0	0	9,15	90,85	0
Cyprus	0	0	0	2,12	97,88	0
Belarus	0	0	0	2,80	97,20	0
Lithuania	0	0	0	0,20	99,80	0
Gibraltar	0	0	0	0,04	99,96	0
Latvia	0	0	0	0	99,47	0,53
Estonia	0	0	0	0	99,92	0,08
Malta	0	0	0	0	92,62	7,38
--------------------------
Moldova	0	0	0	0	7,99	92,01
Andorra	0	0	0	0	0	100,00
San Marino	0	0	0	0	0	100,00
Liechtenstein	0	0	0	0	0	100,00

France, Poland, Austria and Czech Republic have an average ranking position over all simulations that lies very close together. Above you see the mathematical order and resulting pots. In reality one goal more scored or less conceded could decide the real order between these teams and which team will eventually end in pot 1 and which team will end in pot 2.

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About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.