FIFA ranking: December 2022 probable ranking

Here is the probable December 2022 ranking, to be published on Thursday December 22nd. This ranking will include a lot of preparatory friendlies before the complete World Cup with the final on December 18th. Also the preliminary qualifier in two legs between Brunei Darussalam and Timor-Leste for the South East Asian Championships 2022 is scheduled.

This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 133 currently played and scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 149 currently played and scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are currently included.

FIFA ranking: December 2022 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 133 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including the World Cup final on December 18th, used to calculate the December 2022 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since October 3rd, (probably) counting for the December ranking, are presented.

In the first column is indicated if the match is included or not, according to my inclusion-method. You see after the match identification data, the I-factor, the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo and according to FIFA in %. 

Is there a regional bias in the elo rating ?

An interesting question popped up in the discussions around my World Cup simulations and more specific the somewhat lower than expected predicted performance of Senegal compared to home nation Qatar in group A. 

Amir commented:

"Elo indeed has a regional problem - since there are not many matches between teams from different confederations, it takes a long time for ELO to adjust to the actual average per confederation.

If the difference are getting smaller (which is something worth testing), it means that Elo will indeed under-estimate CAF."

Apart from the difficulty to determine the "actual average per confederation", I personally have the impression that elo ratings are not regionally biased, because there isn't anything in the elo calculation that's influenced by the team's confederation. But maybe, indeed the number of intraconfederational versus interconfederational matches a team playes could be the exogenous factor. I decided to give it a go and research this.

FIFA World Cup 2022 simulations (October 2022)

In case you hadn't noticed, the World Cup in Qatar is to be played next month. The tournament was already 10 years ago assigned to a country without any football tradition. It is proven in the meantime that a large part of FIFA's Executive Committee, that would choose the hosts for the two upcoming tournaments in 2018 and 2022 in a closed voting session, was bribed with large amounts of money and other privileges (one only has to think about Platini's son and his sudden career moves). 

FIFA ranking: October 2022 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking this Thursday October 6th. This final preview contains 171 matches, out of 181 matches played since August 22nd.

One team dropped to a new low:

Liechtenstein (196 - 194 in June 2022)