Here is the probable December 2022 ranking, to be published on Thursday December 22nd. This ranking will include a lot of preparatory friendlies before the complete World Cup with the final on December 18th. Also the preliminary qualifier in two legs between Brunei Darussalam and Timor-Leste for the South East Asian Championships 2022 is scheduled.
This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 133 currently played and scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 149 currently played and scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are currently included.
pos Dec. |
team |
pts Dec. |
+/- pos |
+/- pts |
1 |
Brazil |
1955,71 |
0 |
114,41 |
2 |
Argentina |
1893,57 |
1 |
119,69 |
3 |
Belgium |
1882,55 |
-1 |
65,84 |
4 |
France |
1817,59 |
0 |
57,81 |
5 |
England |
1794,44 |
0 |
65,97 |
6 |
Spain |
1766,04 |
1 |
50,82 |
7 |
Netherlands |
1757,27 |
1 |
62,76 |
8 |
Portugal |
1736,02 |
1 |
59,46 |
9 |
Italy |
1728,56 |
-3 |
2,42 |
10 |
Denmark |
1703,73 |
0 |
37,16 |
11 |
Germany |
1699,12 |
0 |
48,91 |
12 |
Uruguay |
1672,22 |
2 |
33,51 |
13 |
Croatia |
1666,30 |
-1 |
20,66 |
14 |
Mexico |
1638,14 |
-1 |
-6,75 |
15 |
Switzerland |
1635,67 |
0 |
-0,25 |
16 |
Colombia |
1612,78 |
1 |
1,74 |
17 |
USA |
1602,74 |
-1 |
-24,74 |
18 |
Serbia |
1575,62 |
3 |
12,00 |
19 |
Peru |
1564,30 |
4 |
3,29 |
20 |
Poland |
1559,71 |
6 |
11,12 |
21 |
Sweden |
1555,96 |
4 |
2,63 |
22 |
Wales |
1555,28 |
-3 |
-14,54 |
23 |
Iran |
1551,73 |
-3 |
-12,88 |
24 |
Ukraine |
1536,99 |
3 |
0 |
25 |
Senegal |
1528,73 |
-7 |
-55,65 |
26 |
Morocco |
1526,19 |
-4 |
-37,31 |
27 |
Japan |
1520,03 |
-3 |
-39,51 |
28 |
Korea Republic |
1513,28 |
0 |
-17,02 |
29 |
Chile |
1506,91 |
0 |
-2,70 |
30 |
Ecuador |
1504,11 |
14 |
39,72 |
31 |
Russia |
1496,11 |
2 |
0 |
32 |
Hungary |
1495,83 |
4 |
3,63 |
33 |
Nigeria |
1494,32 |
-1 |
-4,15 |
34 |
Czech Republic |
1493,10 |
1 |
0,89 |
35 |
Austria |
1492,24 |
-1 |
-0,71 |
36 |
Algeria |
1486,90 |
1 |
-2,20 |
37 |
Egypt |
1485,34 |
2 |
-1,10 |
38 |
Scotland |
1479,44 |
2 |
-0,09 |
39 |
Tunisia |
1476,50 |
-9 |
-31,04 |
40 |
Costa Rica |
1475,63 |
-9 |
-27,96 |
41 |
Norway |
1475,06 |
1 |
2,02 |
42 |
Australia |
1460,99 |
-4 |
-27,73 |
43 |
Turkey |
1460,39 |
2 |
0,25 |
44 |
Canada |
1454,36 |
-3 |
-20,64 |
45 |
Mali |
1448,85 |
1 |
0 |
46 |
Paraguay |
1445,06 |
1 |
-3,71 |
47 |
Cote d'Ivoire |
1443,06 |
1 |
0 |
48 |
Republic of Ireland |
1441,07 |
1 |
0,88 |
49 |
Greece |
1436,09 |
3 |
-1,51 |
50 |
Romania |
1435,14 |
3 |
0,46 |
51 |
Burkina Faso |
1432,25 |
3 |
0 |
52 |
Cameroon |
1427,38 |
-9 |
-44,06 |
53 |
Slovakia |
1425,58 |
2 |
-0,01 |
54 |
Qatar |
1411,29 |
-4 |
-28,60 |
55 |
Venezuela |
1404,37 |
2 |
0 |
56 |
Bosnia-Herzegovina |
1403,51 |
2 |
0 |
57 |
Finland |
1403,19 |
-1 |
-2,41 |
58 |
Northern Ireland |
1396,55 |
1 |
0 |
59 |
Panama |
1393,88 |
1 |
0,60 |
60 |
Saudi Arabia |
1392,88 |
-9 |
-44,90 |
61 |
Slovenia |
1386,57 |
2 |
2,53 |
62 |
Iceland |
1383,10 |
0 |
-1,31 |
63 |
Jamaica |
1376,79 |
1 |
-2,07 |
64 |
North Macedonia |
1358,16 |
1 |
-0,35 |
65 |
Albania |
1355,07 |
1 |
0,96 |
66 |
South Africa |
1349,59 |
1 |
0 |
67 |
Ghana |
1348,33 |
-6 |
-44,67 |
68 |
Iraq |
1340,66 |
0 |
-2,35 |
69 |
Montenegro |
1339,14 |
0 |
-1,89 |
70 |
United Arab Emirates |
1338,48 |
0 |
0,91 |
71 |
Cape Verde Islands |
1336,05 |
0 |
0 |
72 |
Bulgaria |
1334,21 |
0 |
-1,15 |
73 |
Congo DR |
1333,92 |
0 |
0 |
74 |
El Salvador |
1330,51 |
0 |
0 |
75 |
Israel |
1320,68 |
1 |
4,13 |
76 |
Oman |
1319,19 |
-1 |
-1,10 |
77 |
Uzbekistan |
1311,81 |
0 |
1,83 |
78 |
Georgia |
1307,34 |
0 |
0 |
79 |
China PR |
1305,06 |
0 |
0 |
80 |
Honduras |
1301,98 |
0 |
0 |
81 |
Gabon |
1301,84 |
0 |
0 |
82 |
Bolivia |
1294,96 |
0 |
-1,32 |
83 |
Guinea |
1290,47 |
0 |
0 |
84 |
Jordan |
1289,18 |
0 |
-0,81 |
85 |
Curacao |
1278,64 |
1 |
0 |
86 |
Bahrain |
1277,78 |
-1 |
-2,86 |
87 |
Haiti |
1269,07 |
0 |
0 |
88 |
Zambia |
1265,15 |
0 |
-2,27 |
89 |
Uganda |
1260,69 |
0 |
0 |
90 |
Syria |
1258,25 |
0 |
2,33 |
91 |
Benin |
1247,47 |
0 |
0 |
92 |
Luxembourg |
1242,85 |
0 |
-0,95 |
93 |
Palestine |
1233,72 |
1 |
0 |
94 |
Kyrgyzstan |
1230,22 |
1 |
0 |
95 |
Armenia |
1229,28 |
-2 |
-4,65 |
96 |
Vietnam |
1226,65 |
0 |
0 |
97 |
Belarus |
1218,73 |
0 |
-2,33 |
98 |
Equatorial Guinea |
1215,66 |
0 |
0 |
99 |
Lebanon |
1210,97 |
0 |
-0,74 |
100 |
Congo |
1208,79 |
0 |
0 |
101 |
Kenya |
1202,26 |
0 |
0 |
102 |
Madagascar |
1200,74 |
0 |
0 |
103 |
Mauritania |
1197,58 |
0 |
0 |
104 |
Trinidad and Tobago |
1195,29 |
0 |
0 |
105 |
New Zealand |
1193,98 |
0 |
0 |
106 |
India |
1192,09 |
0 |
0 |
107 |
Kosovo |
1192,02 |
0 |
5,01 |
108 |
Tajikistan |
1185,70 |
0 |
0 |
109 |
Estonia |
1185,21 |
0 |
0,57 |
110 |
Cyprus |
1182,66 |
0 |
-1,16 |
111 |
Thailand |
1174,92 |
0 |
0 |
112 |
Korea DPR |
1169,96 |
0 |
0 |
113 |
Mozambique |
1165,22 |
1 |
0 |
114 |
Namibia |
1164,13 |
1 |
0 |
115 |
Kazakhstan |
1163,09 |
-2 |
-3,54 |
116 |
Guinea-Bissau |
1160,71 |
0 |
0 |
117 |
Sierra Leone |
1160,31 |
0 |
0 |
118 |
Guatemala |
1158,80 |
0 |
2,10 |
119 |
Angola |
1155,90 |
0 |
0 |
120 |
Libya |
1154,25 |
0 |
0 |
121 |
Niger |
1152,80 |
0 |
0 |
122 |
Malawi |
1144,97 |
2 |
0 |
123 |
Azerbaijan |
1144,33 |
0 |
-2,39 |
124 |
Faroe Islands |
1143,82 |
-2 |
-3,35 |
125 |
Zimbabwe |
1138,56 |
0 |
0 |
126 |
Gambia |
1137,47 |
0 |
0 |
127 |
Togo |
1128,92 |
0 |
0 |
128 |
Sudan |
1127,34 |
0 |
0 |
129 |
Comoros |
1123,18 |
0 |
0 |
130 |
Tanzania |
1119,89 |
0 |
0 |
131 |
Antigua and Barbuda |
1117,01 |
0 |
0 |
132 |
Central African Republic |
1116,97 |
0 |
0 |
133 |
Latvia |
1116,82 |
1 |
2,61 |
134 |
Philippines |
1115,13 |
-1 |
0 |
135 |
Turkmenistan |
1100,47 |
0 |
0 |
136 |
Solomon Islands |
1095,70 |
0 |
0 |
137 |
Rwanda |
1093,66 |
0 |
0 |
138 |
Ethiopia |
1091,19 |
0 |
0 |
139 |
Suriname |
1077,30 |
0 |
0 |
140 |
St. Kitts and Nevis |
1076,91 |
0 |
0 |
141 |
Burundi |
1076,26 |
0 |
0 |
142 |
Eswatini |
1070,89 |
1 |
0 |
143 |
Nicaragua |
1069,08 |
-1 |
-2,75 |
144 |
Lithuania |
1066,31 |
0 |
-3,44 |
145 |
Hong Kong |
1062,39 |
0 |
0 |
146 |
Malaysia |
1062,32 |
0 |
0 |
147 |
Lesotho |
1061,40 |
0 |
0 |
148 |
Botswana |
1056,46 |
0 |
0 |
149 |
Kuwait |
1054,14 |
0 |
0,73 |
150 |
Liberia |
1049,66 |
0 |
0 |
151 |
Indonesia |
1033,90 |
1 |
0 |
152 |
Andorra |
1033,63 |
-1 |
-1,57 |
153 |
Dominican Republic |
1031,86 |
0 |
0 |
154 |
Maldives |
1026,09 |
0 |
0 |
155 |
Yemen |
1023,52 |
0 |
0 |
156 |
Afghanistan |
1023,04 |
0 |
0 |
157 |
Chinese Taipei |
1017,78 |
0 |
0 |
158 |
Myanmar |
1007,89 |
0 |
0 |
159 |
Papua New Guinea |
1007,46 |
0 |
0 |
160 |
Singapore |
1003,50 |
0 |
0 |
161 |
New Caledonia |
995,58 |
0 |
0 |
162 |
Tahiti |
995,11 |
0 |
0 |
163 |
Fiji |
989,43 |
0 |
0 |
164 |
Vanuatu |
985,62 |
0 |
0 |
165 |
South Sudan |
983,98 |
0 |
0 |
166 |
Barbados |
982,27 |
0 |
0 |
167 |
Cuba |
978,65 |
0 |
0 |
168 |
Bermuda |
977,47 |
1 |
0 |
169 |
Malta |
976,46 |
-1 |
-1,46 |
170 |
Puerto Rico |
974,32 |
0 |
0 |
171 |
St. Lucia |
968,79 |
1 |
3,13 |
172 |
Guyana |
968,74 |
-1 |
0 |
173 |
Grenada |
963,72 |
0 |
0 |
174 |
Moldova |
961,38 |
0 |
0,15 |
175 |
Nepal |
954,86 |
0 |
0 |
176 |
Belize |
950,88 |
0 |
0 |
177 |
Cambodia |
948,62 |
0 |
0 |
178 |
St. Vincent and the Grenadines |
945,25 |
0 |
0 |
179 |
Montserrat |
940,78 |
0 |
0 |
180 |
Mauritius |
932,02 |
0 |
0 |
181 |
Chad |
930,22 |
0 |
0 |
182 |
Macau |
922,10 |
0 |
0 |
183 |
Mongolia |
913,55 |
0 |
0 |
184 |
Dominica |
911,51 |
0 |
0 |
185 |
Bhutan |
910,96 |
0 |
0 |
186 |
Sao Tomé e PrÃncipe |
908,18 |
0 |
0 |
187 |
Laos |
905,51 |
0 |
0 |
188 |
Brunei Darussalam |
903,02 |
2 |
4,61 |
189 |
American Samoa |
900,27 |
-1 |
0 |
190 |
Cook Islands |
899,33 |
-1 |
0 |
191 |
Samoa |
894,26 |
0 |
0 |
192 |
Bangladesh |
884,45 |
0 |
0 |
193 |
Djibouti |
875,05 |
0 |
0 |
194 |
Pakistan |
866,81 |
0 |
0 |
195 |
Cayman Islands |
865,72 |
0 |
0 |
196 |
Tonga |
861,81 |
1 |
0 |
197 |
Liechtenstein |
859,84 |
-1 |
-2,55 |
198 |
Seychelles |
859,56 |
1 |
0 |
199 |
Eritrea |
855,56 |
1 |
0 |
200 |
Gibraltar |
855,54 |
4 |
3,38 |
201 |
Timor-Leste |
855,45 |
-3 |
-4,61 |
202 |
Aruba |
855,37 |
-1 |
0 |
203 |
Bahamas |
854,80 |
-1 |
0 |
204 |
Somalia |
854,72 |
-1 |
0 |
205 |
Guam |
838,33 |
0 |
0 |
206 |
Turks and Caicos Islands |
832,00 |
0 |
0 |
207 |
Sri Lanka |
825,25 |
0 |
0 |
208 |
US Virgin Islands |
823,97 |
0 |
0 |
209 |
British Virgin Islands |
809,32 |
0 |
0 |
210 |
Anguilla |
790,74 |
0 |
0 |
211 |
San Marino |
759,09 |
0 |
-3,13 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
hi
ReplyDeleteHi, Ed. I'm just curious, if there any new FIFA members in the future, how many would be their initial points?
ReplyDeleteGood question. Short answer: I don't know. We will have to find out what FIFA will do when the occasion arises.
ReplyDeleteWith the start of the new ranking calculation in June 2018 each then existing team got initial points assigned, based on the May 2018 FIFA ranking, the last ranking calculated with the old method. Kosovo and Gibraltar were the most recently added teams but that was already in 2016.
For a completely new team, I guess initial points will be estimated and then the hope is that by playing sufficient matches the rating of the new team will converge rather rapidly to their 'real' strength, just like the elo-rating. Problem in this could be the high 'involatility' of the FIFA-rating calculation compared to the elo-rating calculation, because FIFA applies lower match-weights for the friendly-typed matches and also disregards goal-difference in a match.
The estimation of the initial points will probably follow logical rules, mostly based on the region where the new country originates: a new team like f.i. Northern Mariana Islands will have a low initial rating (800 ?) looking at the current FIFA-ratings of neighboring Pacific island states; a completely new team from Europe (I'm just dropping a name here: Catalunya) could be rated higher initially (1200 or 1300 ?).
why did u adopt 5 points in the calculation of international football matches
ReplyDeleteI assume you refer to the I-factor of 5 for friendly matches in November.
DeleteThat's because there is no official FIFA International Match window this month. So friendlies will not have 10 but only 5 as the I-factor.
But FIFA announced that the FIFA Day will start from November 14.
DeleteTherefore, the match that will be played on the 14th and after is counted in the FIFA agenda and awarded ten points in the classification
In the current FIFA's Men’s International Match Calendar 2020-2024 there is no November 2022 window designated.
DeleteIn the calendar only 14 November is named as the release date of players for the World Cup. It's not the same as a complete match window. For instance there's no end date mentioned of the window.
But be my guest and calculate with I=10. We'll see in December who was right.
Hi Ed, For the matches more than 6 substitution occurred for one of the teams: will be not included in the fifa ranking OR can be included in the fifa ranking as non-international match with weight 5??
ReplyDeleteHi Tarek, FIFA excludes any match with more than 6 substitutions from the ranking calculation. At least, that was their policy for the last decade.
DeleteAnother requirement for a match to be included was a FIFA-approved referee and that the match should follow the IFAB Laws of the Game (so at least consists of 2x45 minutes and much more). But we have seen already a few examples where those requirements were not met but the match was included anyway.
So in the end, inclusion or exclusion of a match is always something that can only be determined definitely when the ranking is published.
Yes, you are right. Will wait and see. Thanks a lot Ed. Have a nice weekend.
Deletefifa has a problem with the tournament format for 48 teams. I'm very happy about this. It will be the dumbest tournament ever, or as Wenger says, the two dumbest tournaments. over 100 matches, nearly 40 days.... great job Infantino
ReplyDeleteExpanding to 40, 44 or 48 is a step towards a 64 team World Cup, but each number less than 64 teams has its own problems regardless of which format is chosen. In an ideal world it would much better to stick to 32 teams, with expanded inter confederation playoffs.
DeleteI have watched the World Cup since 1982. I don't watch the current ones because Qatar and I'm not going to watch the next ones either because the 48 format is strange.
ReplyDeleteSeems like FIFA are rethinking the format for 2026. They are apparently looking into going with 12 groups of 4, followed by a Round of 32. That is better than the original plan of 16 groups of 3 but is still a hideous idea. We've seen in past tournaments how the group stage is diminished when 66% of the 3rd-place finishers make it through. Far better to stick with 32 teams, or at least be bold and inventive and have only the 12 group winners go through, with a play-off for the best 8 runners-up, followed by the traditional Round of 16. Which would also mean 80 unique kick-off times just as they had planned originally.
ReplyDeleteFirst group stage: 16 groups of 3, from group A to P. Second group stage: 8 groups of 4, from 1 to 8. Example group 1: WA (winner of group A), WB, RA(runner-up of group A), RB. WA brings points and goals from 1st round agaist RA etc. So all matches in 1st stage will be very important. In 2nd group stage teams from group A play against teams group B (WA-WB, RA-RB, WA-RB, WB-RA). In each group will 4 matches. Two best teams from ech group get promotion to traditional play-off round of 16. Number of matches round by round: 48+32+8+4+2+1+1=96
Deletethe winner of world cup,the team should be nbr 01,,unless why gave the trophy to Argentina..count the point and give it to Trophy to brasil...
ReplyDeleteBrazil
ReplyDelete