FIFA World Cup 2022 simulations (October 2022)

In case you hadn't noticed, the World Cup in Qatar is to be played next month. The tournament was already 10 years ago assigned to a country without any football tradition. It is proven in the meantime that a large part of FIFA's Executive Committee, that would choose the hosts for the two upcoming tournaments in 2018 and 2022 in a closed voting session, was bribed with large amounts of money and other privileges (one only has to think about Platini's son and his sudden career moves). 

After the assignment there were a number of controversies around Qatar: 

• the high temperatures in the Summer desert which wouldn't allow for football on any part of the day. It forced the tournament to be played in the Winter, resulting in all kinds of organisational and logistical challenges for football associations worldwide;

• the country has a population of some 300.000 indigenous Qatari's next to an immigrant working force of about 2.3 million expatriates. The miserable circumstances for a large part of the immigrant workers that had to build stadiums and other World Cup infrastructure as a modern slave in dangerous working conditions are documented: more than 5.000 workers died during those building activities, whatever Infantino says to downplay those facts;

• being the first Muslim country in the Arabic world to host the tournament, 'suddenly' it became clear that, although Qatar certainly is not as strict as for instance neighbor Saudi Arabia, it still is an Emirate country with the Muslim Sharia law as the basic source of legislation. Restrictions on civil liberties such as the freedoms of association, expression and the press are standard in those countries and Qatar's human rights record is generally poor. See for much more information about Qatar: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar.

All in all a large part of the footballing community has serious reservations about the tournament, me included. It shouldn't have been assigned to such a country in the first place. But as it stands FIFA only highlights the advantages and the 'improving' effects of playing football there with 32 countries: blah blah blah. FIFA's contractual obligations wouldn't allow for anything like a re-assignment of the tournament. And... they will earn once again an enormous amount of money from this World Cup: $4.6 billion is the latest estimated revenue, including selling broadcasting rights for $2.6 billion alone. I expect that will mitigate the further damage to their image considerably. Now, I hear you think: was there anything undamaged left in FIFA's image, then ?

An international boycott of the tournament wasn't to be expected: the football associations just want to play football and try to be 'influential' there. I have my doubts if any of that will stick.

About the lacking footballing tradition: Qatar realized they had to develop something on that aspect, otherwise their participation would become a real disaster. They searched and found footballers from around the globe with a trace of Qatari blood in them (or sometimes not even a trace) and started to build a competitive national team. 

In 2012 they were down at around spot 100 in the FIFA ranking and they were still in that region when in January 2019 all of a sudden they became Asian champion in the United Arab Emirates by beating all their opposition, including Asian powerhouses Saudi Arabia, South Korea and in the final Japan. That made them leap to spot 55.

After that they sought opposition from other continents to become even stronger: in recent years they participated in continental championships in the Americas. In the Copa America 2019 they couldn't impress and ended last in the group with only 1 point, but in the Gold Cup 2021 they reached the semi finals unbeaten to only narrowly lose to the USA. They are on spot 50 in the ranking at the moment.

So, it won't have anything of a festive atmosphere but here we are: the most important football title is at stake. Let's take a detailed look at the chances of each participating country.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. 

First the group results with teams ordered by average group position (in the last column):

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Netherlands	67,41	22,25	8,11	2,23	1,45
Ecuador	16,91	35,17	29,34	18,58	2,50
Qatar	11,93	28,19	34,06	25,82	2,74
Senegal	3,75	14,39	28,49	53,37	3,31
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
England	43,56	27,11	17,67	11,66	1,97
Iran	20,85	25,53	27,60	26,02	2,59
USA	18,67	24,20	26,83	30,30	2,69
Wales	16,92	23,16	27,90	32,02	2,75
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Argentina	85,79	11,56	2,40	0,25	1,17
Poland	6,82	39,34	35,95	17,89	2,649
Mexico	6,67	39,21	36,39	17,73	2,652
Saudi Arabia	0,72	9,89	25,26	64,13	3,53
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
France	51,30	35,32	10,26	3,12	1,65
Denmark	41,59	40,40	13,93	4,08	1,81
Australia	4,37	13,49	41,50	40,64	3,18
Tunisia	2,74	10,79	34,31	52,16	3,36
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Spain	55,85	29,92	10,61	3,62	1,62
Germany	31,77	37,87	21,10	9,26	2,08
Japan	8,26	19,83	37,13	34,78	2,98
Costa Rica	4,12	12,38	31,16	52,34	3,32
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Belgium	58,73	26,47	10,78	4,02	1,60
Croatia	27,39	37,95	21,74	12,92	2,20
Canada	7,32	18,57	34,48	39,63	3,06
Morocco	6,56	17,01	33,00	43,43	3,13
group G	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Brazil	78,12	16,67	4,68	0,53	1,28
Switzerland	12,61	44,06	36,24	7,09	2,38
Serbia	8,97	36,03	44,99	10,01	2,56
Cameroon	0,30	3,24	14,09	82,37	3,79
group H	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Portugal	55,70	31,47	11,89	0,94	1,58
Uruguay	34,14	41,21	21,59	3,06	1,94
Korea Republic	9,86	24,63	51,61	13,90	2,70
Ghana	0,30	2,69	14,91	82,10	3,79

Then the focus turns to the knock-out stage with the probabilities to qualify for each knock-out round. From the quarter finals onwards also the percentages are presented (in square brackets) to qualify for the round, given qualification for the previous knock-out round.

the round of 16:

Argentina	97,35
Brazil	94,79
Netherlands	89,66
Portugal	87,17
France	86,62
Spain	85,77
Belgium	85,20
Denmark	81,99
Uruguay	75,35
England	70,67
Germany	69,64
Croatia	65,34
Switzerland	56,67
Ecuador	52,08
Iran	46,38
Poland	46,16
Mexico	45,88
Serbia	45,00
USA	42,87
Qatar	40,12
Wales	40,08
Korea Republic	34,49
Japan	28,09
Canada	25,89
Morocco	23,57
Senegal	18,14
Australia	17,86
Costa Rica	16,50
Tunisia	13,53
Saudi Arabia	10,61
Cameroon	3,54
Ghana	2,99

the quarter finals:

Brazil	82,22		[86,74]
Argentina	80,96		[83,16]
Netherlands	72,35		[80,69]
Spain	60,64		[70,70]
Belgium	53,60		[62,91]
France	50,27		[58,04]
Portugal	44,71		[51,29]
Denmark	41,43		[50,53]
England	38,84		[54,96]
Germany	36,83		[52,89]
Uruguay	26,88		[35,67]
Croatia	26,74		[40,92]
Switzerland	23,96		[42,28]
Ecuador	23,04		[44,24]
Iran	17,98		[38,77]
Serbia	16,50		[36,67]
USA	15,59		[36,37]
Qatar	14,27		[35,57]
Wales	13,88		[34,63]
Poland	10,88		[23,57]
Mexico	10,51		[22,91]
Japan	8,44		[30,05]
Korea Republic	5,27		[15,28]
Canada	5,26		[20,32]
Morocco	4,64		[19,69]
Senegal	4,05		[22,33]
Costa Rica	3,85		[23,33]
Australia	2,89		[16,18]
Tunisia	1,95		[14,41]
Saudi Arabia	1,11		[10,46]
Cameroon	0,39		[11,02]
Ghana	0,07		[02,34]

the semi finals:

Brazil	65,00		[79,06]
Argentina	63,75		[78,74]
France	34,43		[68,49]
Netherlands	29,81		[41,20]
Belgium	29,50		[55,04]
Denmark	26,91		[64,95]
Spain	26,61		[43,88]
Portugal	24,18		[54,08]
England	13,78		[35,48]
Germany	12,89		[35,00]
Uruguay	11,11		[41,33]
Switzerland	9,82		[40,98]
Croatia	9,41		[35,19]
Serbia	6,33		[38,36]
Ecuador	5,54		[24,05]
USA	4,49		[28,80]
Mexico	4,23		[40,25]
Iran	4,21		[23,41]
Poland	4,13		[37,96]
Qatar	3,26		[22,85]
Wales	3,17		[22,84]
Japan	1,62		[19,19]
Korea Republic	1,24		[23,53]
Australia	0,94		[32,53]
Canada	0,90		[17,11]
Morocco	0,76		[16,38]
Tunisia	0,59		[30,26]
Senegal	0,57		[14,07]
Costa Rica	0,56		[14,55]
Saudi Arabia	0,19		[17,12]
Cameroon	0,05		[12,82]
Ghana	0,02		[28,57]

the final:

Brazil	44,40		[68,31]
Argentina	35,54		[55,75]
Belgium	18,87		[63,97]
France	15,82		[45,95]
Portugal	13,88		[57,40]
Spain	13,74		[51,63]
Netherlands	12,45		[41,76]
Denmark	11,18		[41,55]
Germany	5,55		[43,06]
Uruguay	5,01		[45,09]
England	4,52		[32,80]
Croatia	4,18		[44,42]
Switzerland	3,93		[40,02]
Serbia	2,36		[37,28]
USA	1,26		[28,06]
Ecuador	1,17		[21,12]
Iran	1,05		[24,94]
Mexico	0,94		[22,22]
Poland	0,89		[21,55]
Qatar	0,77		[23,62]
Wales	0,64		[20,19]
Japan	0,47		[29,01]
Korea Republic	0,35		[28,23]
Canada	0,32		[35,56]
Morocco	0,21		[27,63]
Australia	0,14		[14,89]
Costa Rica	0,14		[25,00]
Tunisia	0,12		[20,34]
Senegal	0,08		[14,04]
Saudi Arabia	0,02		[10,53]
Cameroon	0,00		[00,00]
Ghana	0,00		[00,00]

and the winner:

Brazil	32,90		[74,10]
Argentina	24,76		[69,67]
Spain	6,91		[50,29]
Belgium	6,79		[35,98]
Netherlands	6,49		[52,13]
France	4,88		[30,85]
Portugal	4,65		[33,50]
Denmark	3,09		[27,64]
Germany	2,10		[37,84]
Uruguay	1,35		[26,95]
Croatia	1,28		[30,62]
England	1,11		[24,56]
Switzerland	1,05		[26,72]
Serbia	0,62		[26,27]
USA	0,45		[35,71]
Iran	0,30		[28,57]
Ecuador	0,21		[17,95]
Qatar	0,21		[27,27]
Wales	0,17		[26,56]
Mexico	0,16		[17,02]
Poland	0,14		[15,73]
Japan	0,12		[25,53]
Canada	0,07		[21,88]
Korea Republic	0,05		[14,29]
Morocco	0,05		[23,81]
Australia	0,04		[28,57]
Costa Rica	0,02		[14,29]
Tunisia	0,02		[16,67]
Senegal	0,01		[12,50]
Saudi Arabia	0,00		[00,00]
Cameroon	0,00		[00,00]
Ghana	0,00		[00,00]

Then a closer look to the most probable match-ups in the different knock-out stages. A total of 440 different match-ups are generated in this simulation. Here are per match the 10 most probable match-ups presented. Also per knock-out stage a total overview of the 20 most probable match-ups.

Round of 16
A1-B2 (Dec 3 - Rayyan)	8F1		C1-D2 (Dec 3 - Rayyan)	8F2
Netherlands - England	18,15		Argentina - Denmark	34,69
Netherlands - Iran	17,30		Argentina - France	30,09
Netherlands - USA	16,36		Argentina - Australia	11,75
Netherlands - Wales	15,60		Argentina - Tunisia	9,26
Ecuador - England	4,52		Mexico - Denmark	2,73
Ecuador - Iran	4,43		Poland - Denmark	2,72
Ecuador - USA	4,25		Poland - France	2,58
Ecuador - Wales	3,71		Mexico - France	2,32
Qatar - England	3,26		Mexico - Australia	0,91
Qatar - Iran	2,94		Poland - Australia	0,77
D1-C2 (Dec 4 - Doha)	8F3		B1-A2 (Dec 4 - Khor)	8F4
France - Poland	20,59		England - Ecuador	15,25
France - Mexico	20,11		England - Qatar	12,44
Denmark - Mexico	16,39		England - Netherlands	9,72
Denmark - Poland	15,88		Iran - Ecuador	7,41
France - Argentina	5,61		USA - Ecuador	6,43
Denmark - Argentina	5,10		England - Senegal	6,15
France - Saudi Arabia	4,99		Wales - Ecuador	6,08
Denmark - Saudi Arabia	4,22		Iran - Qatar	5,89
Australia - Poland	1,84		USA - Qatar	5,21
Australia - Mexico	1,55		Wales - Qatar	4,65
E1-F2 (Dec 5 - Wakrah)	8F5		G1-H2 (Dec 5 - Doha)	8F6
Spain - Croatia	20,59		Brazil - Uruguay	32,33
Spain - Belgium	15,09		Brazil - Portugal	24,33
Germany - Croatia	12,39		Brazil - Korea Republic	19,24
Spain - Canada	10,69		Switzerland - Uruguay	5,19
Spain - Morocco	9,48		Switzerland - Portugal	4,09
Germany - Belgium	8,26		Serbia - Uruguay	3,58
Germany - Morocco	5,66		Switzerland - Korea Republic	3,06
Germany - Canada	5,46		Serbia - Portugal	2,99
Japan - Croatia	3,50		Brazil - Ghana	2,22
Japan - Belgium	2,03		Serbia - Korea Republic	2,21
F1-E2 (Dec 6 - Rayyan)	8F7		H1-G2 (Dec 6 - Lusail)	8F8
Belgium - Germany	22,17		Portugal - Switzerland	24,71
Belgium - Spain	17,87		Portugal - Serbia	20,02
Belgium - Japan	11,74		Uruguay - Switzerland	14,82
Croatia - Germany	10,62		Uruguay - Serbia	12,42
Croatia - Spain	7,84		Portugal - Brazil	9,26
Belgium - Costa Rica	6,95		Uruguay - Brazil	5,73
Croatia - Japan	5,36		Korea Republic - Switzerland	4,39
Croatia - Costa Rica	3,57		Korea Republic - Serbia	3,47
Canada - Germany	2,71		Portugal - Cameroon	1,71
Morocco - Germany	2,37		Korea Republic - Brazil	1,64
matchups total Round of 16	8F
Argentina - Denmark	39,79
Brazil - Uruguay	38,06
Argentina - France	35,70
Brazil - Portugal	33,59
Belgium - Spain	32,96
Belgium - Germany	30,43
Portugal - Switzerland	28,80
Croatia - Spain	28,43
England - Netherlands	27,87
France - Poland	23,17
Portugal - Serbia	23,01
Croatia - Germany	23,01
France - Mexico	22,43
Iran - Netherlands	21,91
Brazil - Korea Republic	20,88
Netherlands - USA	20,73
Switzerland - Uruguay	20,01
Ecuador - England	19,77
Netherlands - Wales	19,15
Denmark - Mexico	19,12
Quarter finals
E1/F2-G1/H2 (Dec 9 - Rayyan)	QF1		A1/B2-C1/D2 (Dec 9 - Lusail)	QF2
Spain - Brazil	31,29		Netherlands - Argentina	41,28
Germany - Brazil	15,99		Ecuador - Argentina	7,51
Croatia - Brazil	7,48		England - Argentina	7,14
Belgium - Brazil	6,85		Netherlands - France	5,77
Spain - Switzerland	3,98		Netherlands - Denmark	5,36
Spain - Portugal	3,48		Qatar - Argentina	4,37
Spain - Uruguay	2,93		Iran - Argentina	4,31
Japan - Brazil	2,76		USA - Argentina	3,77
Spain - Serbia	2,57		Wales - Argentina	3,41
Germany - Switzerland	1,96		Netherlands - Poland	1,50
F1/E2-H1/G2 (Dec 10 - Doha)	QF3		B1/A2-D1/C2 (Dec 10 - Khor)	QF4
Belgium - Portugal	16,30		England - France	11,49
Belgium - Uruguay	8,88		England - Denmark	9,59
Belgium - Switzerland	6,48		Netherlands - France	6,79
Croatia - Portugal	6,07		Iran - France	5,03
Belgium - Brazil	5,68		Ecuador - France	4,86
Spain - Portugal	5,65		Netherlands - Denmark	4,72
Germany - Portugal	5,35		USA - France	4,26
Belgium - Serbia	4,60		Ecuador - Denmark	3,89
Spain - Uruguay	3,11		Iran - Denmark	3,75
Croatia - Uruguay	3,04		Wales - France	3,63
matchups total quarter finals	QF
Argentina - Netherlands	42,52
Brazil - Spain	33,29
Brazil - Germany	17,88
Belgium - Portugal	17,00
France - Netherlands	12,56
Belgium - Brazil	12,53
England - France	12,33
Denmark - England	10,51
Denmark - Netherlands	10,08
Belgium - Uruguay	9,65
Argentina - England	9,57
Brazil - Croatia	9,43
Portugal - Spain	9,13
Argentina - Ecuador	8,45
Belgium - Switzerland	7,44
Germany - Portugal	6,92
Croatia - Portugal	6,91
Spain - Switzerland	6,36
Spain - Uruguay	6,04
Ecuador - France	6,00
Semi finals
A1/B2-C1/D2 - E1/F2-G1/H2 (Dec 13 - Lusail)	SF1		B1/A2-D1/C2 - F1/E2-H1/G2 (Dec 14 - Khor)	SF2
Argentina - Brazil	31,78		France - Belgium	8,09
Netherlands - Brazil	12,23		France - Portugal	5,95
Argentina - Spain	9,72		Denmark - Belgium	5,90
Netherlands - Spain	4,52		Denmark - Portugal	4,85
Argentina - Germany	4,07		England - Belgium	2,99
Denmark - Brazil	2,61		France - Brazil	2,72
France - Brazil	2,60		France - Uruguay	2,70
Argentina - Switzerland	2,31		France - Spain	2,64
Argentina - Portugal	1,99		England - Portugal	2,46
Argentina - Belgium	1,95		Denmark - Brazil	2,32
matchups total semi finals	SF
Argentina - Brazil	32,52
Brazil - Netherlands	12,86
Argentina - Spain	10,30
Belgium - France	8,26
France - Portugal	6,09
Belgium - Denmark	6,07
Brazil - France	5,32
Netherlands - Spain	5,19
Denmark - Portugal	4,99
Brazil - Denmark	4,93
Argentina - Germany	4,41
Argentina - Belgium	3,59
France - Spain	3,51
Argentina - Portugal	3,31
Belgium - England	3,06
France - Uruguay	2,84
Argentina - Switzerland	2,74
Denmark - Spain	2,70
England - Portugal	2,57
Belgium - Netherlands	2,47
3rd place Play-off
3rd place play-off (Dec 17 - Rayyan)
Argentina - France	4,60
Argentina - Denmark	3,47
Brazil - France	2,85
Argentina - England	2,13
Brazil - Denmark	2,12
France - Netherlands	2,08
Argentina - Belgium	2,03
Argentina - Portugal	2,03
Belgium - Brazil	1,93
Denmark - Netherlands	1,87
Final
final (Dec 18 - Lusail)
Belgium - Brazil	7,23
Brazil - France	5,81
Argentina - Belgium	5,65
Argentina - Brazil	5,24
Brazil - Portugal	5,19
Argentina - France	4,85
Argentina - Portugal	4,26
Brazil - Denmark	3,87
Argentina - Denmark	3,30
Brazil - Spain	3,24
Brazil - Netherlands	2,27
Argentina - Spain	2,24
Brazil - Uruguay	1,77
Brazil - Switzerland	1,74
Argentina - Netherlands	1,73
Brazil - England	1,62
Belgium - Netherlands	1,60
Belgium - Spain	1,58
Brazil - Croatia	1,46
Brazil - Germany	1,32

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About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.