FIFA ranking: December 2022 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking this Thursday December 22nd. Argentina is the new world champion and just couldn't catch Brazil at the top spot. This final preview contains 159 matches, out of 173 matches played since October 3rd.

FIFA ranking: December 2022 probable ranking

Here is the probable December 2022 ranking, to be published on Thursday December 22nd. This ranking will include a lot of preparatory friendlies before the complete World Cup with the final on December 18th. Also the preliminary qualifier in two legs between Brunei Darussalam and Timor-Leste for the South East Asian Championships 2022 is scheduled.

This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 133 currently played and scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 149 currently played and scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are currently included.

FIFA ranking: December 2022 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 133 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including the World Cup final on December 18th, used to calculate the December 2022 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since October 3rd, (probably) counting for the December ranking, are presented.

In the first column is indicated if the match is included or not, according to my inclusion-method. You see after the match identification data, the I-factor, the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo and according to FIFA in %. 

Is there a regional bias in the elo rating ?

An interesting question popped up in the discussions around my World Cup simulations and more specific the somewhat lower than expected predicted performance of Senegal compared to home nation Qatar in group A. 

Amir commented:

"Elo indeed has a regional problem - since there are not many matches between teams from different confederations, it takes a long time for ELO to adjust to the actual average per confederation.

If the difference are getting smaller (which is something worth testing), it means that Elo will indeed under-estimate CAF."

Apart from the difficulty to determine the "actual average per confederation", I personally have the impression that elo ratings are not regionally biased, because there isn't anything in the elo calculation that's influenced by the team's confederation. But maybe, indeed the number of intraconfederational versus interconfederational matches a team playes could be the exogenous factor. I decided to give it a go and research this.

FIFA World Cup 2022 simulations (October 2022)

In case you hadn't noticed, the World Cup in Qatar is to be played next month. The tournament was already 10 years ago assigned to a country without any football tradition. It is proven in the meantime that a large part of FIFA's Executive Committee, that would choose the hosts for the two upcoming tournaments in 2018 and 2022 in a closed voting session, was bribed with large amounts of money and other privileges (one only has to think about Platini's son and his sudden career moves). 

FIFA ranking: October 2022 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking this Thursday October 6th. This final preview contains 171 matches, out of 181 matches played since August 22nd.

One team dropped to a new low:

Liechtenstein (196 - 194 in June 2022)

FIFA ranking: October 2022 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 159 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including October 2nd, used to calculate the October 2022 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since August 22nd, (probably) counting for the October ranking, are presented.

In the first column is indicated if the match is included or not, according to my inclusion-method. You see after the match identification data, the I-factor, the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo and according to FIFA in %. 

FIFA ranking October 2022: preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the October 2022 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on October 6th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

FIFA ranking: October 2022 probable ranking

Here is the probable October 2022 ranking, to be published on Thursday October 6th. This ranking will include the matches in the September window in the conclusion of the UEFA Nations League group stage plus a lot of (preparatory) friendlies for WC-participants all over the world. Also the Melanesian Cup will be played again -for the first time in 22 years- in Vanuatu.

The originally scheduled match days three and four of AFCON 2023 qualifying are recently postponed to next March because the AFCON 2023 in Cote d'Ivoire is also postponed from July 2023 to January 2024, again with the argument that football in July in the Tropics is not a good idea. Now this window is used to give the African participants at the World Cup the opportunity for some much needed interconfederational practice.

FIFA ranking: August 2022 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on Thursday August 25th. This final preview contains 53 matches, out of 55 matches played since June 20th. There are no more matches scheduled until the deadline of the ranking.

Three smaller (regional) tournaments were played in Africa and Asia:

• COSAFA Cup
• East Asian Championship
• first round play-off qualifiers for the African Nations Championship

UEFA Nations League 2022/23 simulations (June 2022)

The June window saw 4 match days in the group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2022/2023. The remaining two match days will be played in the September window.

There were in league A some quite surprising results: notably France and England -although not playing with obviously weakened teams- performed well below par. On the other hand Hungary, Croatia, Denmark and the Netherlands performed much better than expected.

In league B the effect of Russia's suspension on the way the overall UNL ranking will be calculated is not published by UEFA. I assume the teams in league B finishing on positions one to three in each group are sorted in the UNL ranking on group results without the matches against the group number four taken into account. That way the results of the teams in group B-2 are comparable with the other teams in league B.

FIFA ranking: June 2022 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on Thursday June 23rd. This final preview contains 286 matches, out of 320 matches played since March 31st.

Quite some movement to be seen because there was a lot of action around the globe this June window. Also in the top region of the ranking, because of Nations League matches, both in Europe and North and Central America, with surprising results.

AFC Nations Cup 2023 qualification simulations (May 2022)

The qualification for the AFC Nations Cup 2023 is divided in two parts:

• the Asian first and second stage in the qualification for the World Cup 2022 delivered 12 teams: the 8 group winners and the 4 best group runners-up (excluding host China) of the second group stage qualify. China was one of the four best runners-up;
• the rest of the teams entered the separate qualification path for the remaining 11 berths in the 24-team AFC Nations Cup 2023: two play-offs in October 2021 to wittle the remaining teams down to 24 and a group stage with 6 groups of 4 teams. The 6 group winners and the 5 best group runners-up qualify.

China is as host, although they of course participated in the World Cup qualification, automatically qualified for the continental final. From the WC qualification part the 8 group winners qualified (Syria, Australia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Japan, United Arab Emirates and Korea Republic) together with the 4 best runners-up (Oman, Iraq, Vietnam and Lebanon).

CONCACAF Nations League 2022/23 simulations (May 2022)

The second edition of the CONCACAF Nations League starts in this June window. All 41 CONCACAF-members participate and are drawn in three leagues:

• league A has 4 groups of 3 teams
• league B has 4 groups of 4 teams
• league C has 1 group of 4 teams and 3 groups of 3 teams

There are 4 match days in June and 2 in March next year. The four group winners in league A qualify for the Final Four in June 2023.

There is also promotion/relegation between the leagues: the winners of the groups in leagues B and C are promoted while the numbers last in each group in league A and B relegate. The draw of the groups was in April and seeded based on the CONCACAF ranking.

World Cup 2022 qualification simulations (May 2022)

In this June window the qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar (to start in November this year) should finally come to a conclusion. The COVID-19 pandemic plus the Russian war in Ukraine disrupted much on a global scale. It also caused havoc in the original qualification schedules of the confederations for this tournament. It caused severe delays and a final tournament draw taking place in April, even before the qualification process was properly completed. 

I'm still unsure as to why FIFA decided to this schedule of events. There must be some totally football unrelated, probably commercial and for FIFA very profitable reasons behind this. At least, a fair draw was not their top priority, because also the decision to seed the three at the time of the draw unknown participants (one UEFA play-off path A winner and two interconfederational play-off winners) in pot 4, regardless of the ranking of the participating teams in each play-off was -to some degree- unfair and even contradictory to their own regulations.

CAF Nations Cup 2023 qualification simulations (May 2022)

This June window the group stage starts in the qualification for the AFCON 2023 in Cote d'Ivoire in June next year. In March preliminary play-offs were played to wittle the 54 entered African teams down to 48. Now the group stage with 12 groups of 4 teams starts with two matchdays in June, two in September and two in March next year. The 12 group winners and runners-up qualify for the 24-team continental final.

UEFA Nations League 2022/23 simulations (May 2022)

Let's focus on the UEFA Nations League 2022/2023. 

This competition will be played on six matchdays (4 this June window, 2 in the September window), with a Final Four (2 one-off semi-finals, a third place play-off and a final) in June next year.

There are 4 leagues, A - D. All leagues, except league D, consist of 4 groups with 4 teams per group. League D consists of two groups, one with 4 teams and one with 3 teams. All teams in a group play against each other home and away. 

Russia is suspended for this competition; they were originally drawn in group B-2.

FIFA ranking June 2022: preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA June 2022 ranking with FIFA's Home Team Win Expectancy (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) of loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

 

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking June 2022: preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the June 2022 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on June 23rd.

 

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

Note that only scheduled (and included) matches with both teams known at calculation time are incorporated in this analysis.

FIFA ranking: June 2022 probable ranking

Here is the probable June 2022 ranking, to be published on Thursday June 23rd. 

After the commotion of the March window and subsequent World Cup draw a very quiet period in NT-football began with room for the conclusion of the domestic and continental cup seasons in club football. However, the next NT-football window starts after next week and will span two weeks instead of the normal one week: from May 30th until June 14th. This because of the World Cup to be played from November this year.

FIFA ranking: June 2022 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 281 currently scheduled matches up to and including June 14th, used to calculate the June 2022 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since March 31st, (probably) counting for the June ranking, are presented.

 

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method. Also the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

FIFA ranking: April 2022 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking tomorrow, Thursday March 31st. Just in time to use it as the seeding ranking for the Finals draw the following day, Friday April 1st at 18:00 CET that shindig will start.

This final preview contains 169 matches, out of 181 matches played since February 7th.

Just now New Zealand has demolished Solomon Islands in the OFC qualification final, so they will participate in the interconfederational play-off against the CONCACAF number four in June.

And tonight (for us Europeans) the CONCACAF octagonal finishes with the last 4 matches: Canada is qualified but they need a win to clinch the final spot in pot 3 (relegating Tunisia to pot 4), Mexico needs a point against El Salvador to qualify. Costa Rica - USA is about the third direct qualification spot. Costa Rica needs a win with 6 goals difference to pip the USA. That probably won't happen, so the Central-Americans will highly likely be the opponent of New Zealand in June. Mexico and USA will be in pot 2 for the draw when they qualify.

The other IPO is between Peru and the winner of Australia - United Arab Emirates.

FIFA ranking April 2022: preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the April 2022 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on March 31st.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

Note that only scheduled (and included) matches with both teams known at calculation time are incorporated in this analysis.

FIFA ranking: April 2022 probable ranking

Here is the probable April 2022 ranking, to be published on Thursday March 31st. This ranking will include the conclusion of World Cup qualification in all confederations. Also a lot of friendlies are scheduled plus the preliminary play-offs in AFCON 2023 qualification. And the  two-legged play-outs (still for the Nations League 2021) Estonia - Cyprus and Moldova - Kazakhstan to decide which two teams will stay in league C and which two will relegate to league D for the next Nations League 2022-2023, with the group stage of that tournament already to be played in June and September this year.

FIFA ranking April 2022: preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA April 2022 ranking with FIFA's Home Team Win Expectancy (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) of loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

Normally the home team's gained points will be the away-team's lost points. Still, both are given because there are in FIFA's calculation approach cases when they will not be the same: PSO-matches and knock-out matches in final competitions.

FIFA ranking: April 2022 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 145 currently scheduled matches up to and including March 30th, used to calculate the April 2022 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings.

Also the already played matches since February 7th, (probably) counting for the April ranking, are presented.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method. Also the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

World Cup qualification simulations (5 February 2022)

The January window and all but the final weekend in the AFCON 2022 has been played. Compared to the last simulations made in November last year the following changes in the simulated match schedule are made:

• for UEFA all currently scheduled friendlies in the March window are included;
• for CAF the pairing of the final round of 5 home-and-away play-offs in March was drawn, using the November 2021 ranking as seeding ranking;
• for OFC the complete qualification match schedule is known now. All qualifiers will be played in Doha in March to decide the OFC-representative in the IPO's in June. Unfortunately Tonga had to withdraw for their preliminary play-off against the Cook Islands, due to the aftermath of the recent volcanic eruption in their territory. Cook Islands is therefore placed in group A and they will hopefully play their first competitive matches since September 2015;
• AFC, CONCACAF and CONMEBOL played two or three match days of qualifiers. In Asia Iran and South Korea qualified for Qatar while in the other group Japan, Saudi Arabia and Australia battle it out. In CONCACAF Canada was on a roll and won their 3 matches. They are all but qualified. In South America Ecuador and Uruguay made good progress towards direct qualification. Colombia sort of ruined their chances. Even for the IPO-berth Peru seems the first candidate.

FIFA ranking: February 2022 final preview

FIFA will publish the February ranking next Thursday February 10th. This final preview contains 123 matches, out of 127 matches played since December 20th. 

Only the third place match tomorrow between tournament host Cameroon and Burkina Faso and the final on Sunday of the African Cup of Nations 2022 between Senegal and Egypt are to be played:

	CMR		BFA
	pts	pos	pts	pos
Cameroon win	1490,93	36	1418,01	56
Cameroon PSO win	1480,93	38	1420,11	56
Burkina Faso PSO win	1473,03	38	1430,11	54
Burkina Faso win	1473,03	38	1440,11	51
	SEN		EGY
	pts	pos	pts	pos
Senegal win	1597,87	17	1493,67	34
Senegal PSO win	1587,87	18	1497,00	34
Egypt PSO win	1581,20	19	1507,00	33
Egypt win	1581,20	19	1517,00	30

Elo predicts a straight Cameroon win for third place and a Senegal PSO win in the final.

FIFA ranking February 2022: preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA February 2022 ranking with FIFA's Home Team Win Expectancy (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) of loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

Normally the home team's gained points will be the away-team's lost points. Still, both are given because there are in FIFA's calculation approach cases when they will not be the same: PSO-matches and knock-out matches in final competitions.

FIFA ranking February 2022: preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the February 2022 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on February 10th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

Note that only scheduled (and included) matches with both teams known at calculation time are incorporated in this analysis.

FIFA ranking: February 2022 probable ranking

Here is the probable February 2022 ranking, to be published on Thursday February 10th.

This ranking will include the semi finals and finals of the South East Asian Championship, the complete African Cup of Nations 2022 in Cameroon and the WC-qualifiers in CONCACAF, AFC and CONMEBOL in the (added) January 2022 match window. Furthermore, quite a few friendlies will be played in this month.

This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 114 currently scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 124 currently scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are included.

FIFA ranking: February 2022 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 124 currently scheduled matches up to and including February 6th, used to calculate the February 2022 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings.

Also the already played matches since December 20th, (probably) counting for the February ranking, are presented.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method. Also the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.