FIFA ranking: December 2023 final preview

FIFA will publish the December ranking next Thursday December 21st. This final preview contains 11 matches, out of 14 matches played since November 27th: the complete knock-out stage of the Pacific Games 2023 and one friendly. 

I expect both forfeited knock-out matches of the Cook Islands to be included. They apparently had to leave the Solomon Islands after the two matches in the group stage and didn't participate in the play-offs for the 5th place in the competition.

One other friendly Colombia - Mexico is scheduled for coming Saturday and it will be included also. This is how the points and positions of both teams could change:

	COL		MEX
result	pts	pos	pts	pos
COL win	1655,29	14	1652,70	15
draw	1652,79	15	1655,20	14
MEX win	1650,29	15	1657,70	14

Elo predicts a Colombia win.

Asian Cup of Nations 2023 simulations (December 2023)

In 2024 five of the six confederations have scheduled their continental championship for national teams. Here's number two in this series of simulation reports: Asia.

The Asian Cup of Nations 2023 was initially scheduled for June 2023 in Qatar. Just as with the World Cup last year the tournament couldn't be played in the Qatari Summer because it's much too hot there in that time of the year. So the continental showpiece had to be moved back to January 2024. That gave Qatar the opportunity to participate 'as guest' (or rather as the generous tournament sponsor who bought their berth) in the Gold Cup 2023 in the USA last July.

African Cup of Nations 2023 simulations (December 2023)

In 2024 five of the six confederations have scheduled their continental championship for national teams. To kick off a series of simulation reports I start with Africa.

The African Cup of Nations 2023 was initially scheduled for June 2023 in Ivory Coast. Much to the delight of several European top clubs, who otherwise would miss quite a few African top players from mid December to mid February during an important part of their domestic competition, CAF had already in 2019 decided to schedule the AFCON from that moment on in June instead of the usual month of January. 

However, with assigning the tournament to a tropical country (again), it became clear very soon that, just like the previous edition in Cameroon, the continental showpiece in 2023 had to be moved back to January 2024 due to unfavorable climatic conditions in the tropical Summer. Conditions really nobody could foresee...

FIFA ranking: November 2023 final preview

FIFA will publish this ranking next Thursday November 30th. This final preview contains 189 matches, out of 200 matches played since October 23rd.

The last round of four group matches in the Pacific Games 2023 is to be played tomorrow and Friday and three of those matches will be included in the November ranking (Tahiti - Northern Mariana Islands won't be, for obvious reasons). The knock-out stage of this tournament will be included in the December 2023 ranking.

Another way of ranking the international top scorers (II)

There came quite some reactions and suggestions on my first post about another way of ranking the international top scorers. I can only agree with the main criticism: the measure of how valuable the top scorer is, could be better contrived than by calculating the average elo-points of the opponent per goal scored. This measure indeed mainly indicated that some top scorers played mostly weaker opposition.

Some suggested to not take the average but just weigh the goals with some weigh factors. I agree, each goal scored should contribute -more or less- to the total score of a top scorer, not carry the danger that the total score got reduced.

FIFA ranking: November 2023 probable ranking

Here is the probable November 2023 ranking, to be published on Thursday November 30th. In the upcoming November window matches for the following tournaments will be played:

- the CONCACAF Nations League 2024 group stage in leagues B and C plays to a finish with match days 5 and 6. In league A the home-and-away quarter finals are scheduled. The winners qualify for the CNL Final Four in March 2024 and the Copa America 2024 next Summer. The 4 losers go to two one-off play-offs in March 2024 to determine the final two CONCACAF participants in the Copa America. For ranking calculation purposes I expect the new quarter final matches to have an I-factor of 25, same as the CNL Final Four matches;

- the qualification for EURO 2024 plays to a finish with match days 9 and 10. Both postponed matches of Israel from the October window are scheduled early in the November window;

- qualification for the World Cup 2026 continues with match days 5 and 6 in the South American group. Asia and Africa start with their group stage, playing match days 1 and 2. Eritrea seems to have withdrawn at the last moment. Fearing new bad publicity with players defecting after away matches they've chosen to not participate in the 10-match group stage. As a consequence they won't be ranked in the FIFA ranking in the foreseeable future;

- for the Pacific Games in Honiara on the Solomon Islands the 12 participants are drawn in 4 groups of 3 teams. The match schedule is not yet published. I've assumed a schedule to be able to incorporate the group stage matches in this ranking preview. The 3 OFC teams that were excluded in July from the FIFA ranking (Samoa, American Samoa and Tonga) will participate, so they will be ranked again in the November ranking.

- with all confederations in full swing very few friendlies are scheduled for this window.

FIFA ranking: November 2023 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 186 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including November 26th, used to calculate the November 2023 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since October 23rd, (probably) counting for the November ranking, are presented.

Another way of ranking the international top scorers

Normally you don't see anything in this blog about individual players, because they are not my main interest in NT-football. It's about the national teams for me. But recently there was a request from a long-time reader about the ranking of international top scorers, in combination with the strength of the opponents against which they scored their goals.

Especially since Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo, the ultimate professional and prolific football player, but also the world's biggest phoney when it comes to being a team player, is breaking records, this topic is apparently hot. He's the leading all-time international top scorer with 127 goals from 203 caps. 

FIFA ranking: October 2023 final preview

FIFA will publish this ranking next Thursday October 26th. This final preview contains 170 matches, out of 181 matches played since September 18th.

One team reaches a new highest rank:

Kosovo (105 - 106 in June 2022)

Two teams fall back to their lowest rank:

Grenada (176 in December 2007)

Liechtenstein (200 in July 2023)

2024 UEFA EURO qualification: 10.000 simulations (October 2023)

Last week the match days seven and eight of qualification for EURO 2024 have been played. See here for all the details of the qualification process and the simulation results before the groups started. See for previous simulation results: after MD2, after MD4 and after MD6.

FIFA ranking: October 2023 probable ranking

Here is the probable October 2023 ranking, to be published on Thursday October 26th. In the upcoming October window matches for the following tournaments will be played:

- the CONCACAF Nations League 2024 group stage continues with match days 3 and 4. In league A these are already the final group matches. Numbers 1 and 2 in both groups will continue to the new quarter finals in November against one of the four CONCACAF top seeds;

- match days 7 and 8 of qualification for EURO 2024;

- qualification for the World Cup 2026: match days 3 and 4 in the South American group and the first round home-and-away play-offs in Asia;

- lots of friendlies, most involving African and Asian teams, some also in tournaments like the Melanesian Cup and the Merdeka tournament in Malaysia.

- the postponed qualifier between Morocco and Liberia for the African Cup of Nations 2023. Morocco is already qualified. The draw for this tournament in January 2024 in Cote d'Ivoire will be staged on October 12th.

FIFA ranking: October 2023 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 154 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including October 22nd, used to calculate the October 2023 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since September 18th, (probably) counting for the October ranking, are presented.

2024 UEFA EURO qualification: 10.000 simulations (September 2023)

Last week the match days five and six of qualification for EURO 2024 have been played. See here for all the details of the qualification process and the simulation results before the groups started. See for previous simulation results: after MD2 and after MD4.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The complete remaining match schedule for UEFA teams is simulated, including currently scheduled friendlies in 2023.

FIFA ranking: September 2023 final preview

FIFA will publish this ranking next Thursday September 21st. This final preview contains 165 matches, out of 182 matches played since July 17th.

Eritrea played their last official match 4 years ago in September 2019. They are excluded from the ranking from now on, until they have played again. Eritrea is participating in African qualifying for the World Cup 2026, with the first round scheduled for November.

CAF qualification World Cup 2026: 10.000 simulations (September 2023)

The match schedule for the group stage matches in African qualification for the World Cup 2026 is finally released, so now I'm able to simulate the process. The format is very simple: all 54 African teams are divided in 9 groups of 6 teams and the 9 group winners qualify for the World Cup.

The 4 best ranked group runners-up will qualify for a play-off, consisting of two one-off semi finals and a one-off final to determine the CAF representation in the IPO. The seeding for this play-off is unknown yet. It could be a completely free draw, or seeding according to the prevailing FIFA ranking or to the ranking of the 4 participants based on group results and then 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3.

This play-off will be played anyway in November 2025.

CONCACAF Nations League 2023/24: 10.000 simulations (August 2023)

The upcoming September window starts a new edition of the CONCACAF Nations League. It will be the third edition and follows only one year after the previous one. It is used as qualification tournament for the Copa America 2024, the South American continental final tournament, which is in 2024 co-organized by CONCACAF (and hosted in the USA) and will be expanded to 16 teams, the 10 from CONMEBOL and 6 CONCACAF teams. It is still not clear if this is a one-off co-operation or the first of a real Americas Cup. Time will tell.

FIFA ranking: September 2023 probable ranking

Here is the probable September 2023 ranking, to be published on Thursday September 21st. In the upcoming September window matches for the following tournaments will be played:

- the final match day in African Nations Cup 2023 qualification. Of the 24 berths for the final tournament in January next year in Cote d'Ivoire 16 are already decided, still 8 to go;

- the CONCACAF Nations League 2024 group stage starts with match days 1 and 2;

- match days 5 and 6 of qualification for EURO 2024;

- qualification for the World Cup 2026 starts, this time in South America with match days 1 and 2 in the group;

- lots of friendlies, featuring f.i. most Asian teams and the top 4 CONCACAF teams that got a bye to the league A quarter finals in November.

FIFA ranking: September 2023 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 180 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including September 17th, used to calculate the September 2023 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since July 17th, (probably) counting for the September ranking, are presented.

Qualification World Cup 2026 10.000 simulations (August 2023)

The qualification tournaments for the World Cup 2026 start this September window in South America, in October in Asia and in November in Africa. Next year's March sees the first qualification matches in CONCACAF while UEFA only starts in March 2025. For OFC the qualification format and schedule is unknown yet.

The World Cup 2026 in USA, Mexico and Canada has been expanded from 32 to 48 berths. Here is the distribution of berths amongst the confederations:

	direct slots			play-off slots
Confederation	2026	2022	growth	2026	2022
AFC	8	5	60%	1	1
CAF	9	5	80%	1	0
CONCACAF	6	3	100%	2	1
CONMEBOL	6	4	50%	1	1
OFC	1	0	-	1	1
UEFA	16	13	23%	0	0
total	46	30	53%	6	4

FIFA ranking: July 2023 final preview

FIFA will publish the second official ranking of 2023 this Thursday July 20th. I consider the ranking published in June as an intermediate ranking as it contains flaws: at least the final of the Intercontinental Cup in India and the final and third place play-off of the Central Asian Nations Cup should have been included. The intermediate ranking was published solely for the draw of the African qualification groups for the WC 2026 last week.

Another thing that Andrea pointed out: Samoa, Tonga and American Samoa played their last official match 4 years ago, in July 2019. They should be excluded from the ranking from now on, until they have played again. That could be at the Pacific games in November.

2024 UEFA EURO qualification: 10.000 simulations (June 2023)

Last week the match days three and four of qualification for EURO 2024 have been played. See here for all the details of the qualification process and the simulation results before the groups started. And see here for the simulation results after the first two match days.

FIFA ranking: July 2023 probable ranking

The July 2023 ranking, to be published on Thursday July 20th, will only be the second ranking of 2023. It seems FIFA decided from now on to publish a ranking only after a NT window has been completed. In this case, immediately following the June window, the Gold Cup will be played so the publication was delayed a bit more to mid July to be able to include that continental final tournament.

FIFA ranking: July 2023 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 222 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including July 16th, used to calculate the July 2023 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since April 3rd, (probably) counting for the July ranking, are presented.

CONCACAF Gold Cup 2023 10.000 simulations

This Summer the only continental showdown to be played is the Gold Cup 2023. From the Nations League 2023 group stage 12 teams have qualified and Qatar is once again the strange guest, or should I say well-rewarded sponsor? The last three participants are determined in three paths of one-off play-off matches (two semi finals and a final) to be played one week before the main tournament starts.

The USA is once again the host, although the first match of Canada in group D (yes, one match only!) is played in Toronto.

2024 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (April 2023)

In March the first two match days of qualification for EURO 2024 have been played. See here for all the details of the qualification process and the simulation results before the groups started.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The complete match schedule for UEFA teams is simulated, including the UNL Final Four and currently scheduled friendlies in 2023.

FIFA ranking: April 2023 final preview

FIFA will publish this first ranking of 2023 next Thursday April 6th. This final preview contains 262 matches, out of 284 matches played since December 19th 2022. Due to Brazil's unexpected friendly loss to Morocco, world champion Argentina is the new top dog, closely followed by France and Brazil.

Included in this ranking will be the final of a friendly three nations tournament in Nepal between host country Nepal and Laos, played coming Friday. The points of each team after this match, depending on the match result:

FIFA ranking: April 2023 probable ranking (II)

In the month of January three tournaments were played to a finish: the South-East Asian Championship 2023, the Gulf Cup 2023 in Iraq and the African Nations Championship in Algeria. FIFA will publish the next ranking only after the March window. Contrary to previous years there won't be an official ranking in the first week of February. Reason enough to publish an intermediate preview of the April ranking.

In the international match window in March the following matches are scheduled:

- match days 3 and 4 in qualification for the African Nations Cup 2024;

- match days 1 and 2 in qualification for the EURO 2024;

- the group stage of the CONCACAF Nations League 2023 is played to a conclusion;

- some friendlies.

Here is the probable April 2023 ranking, to be published on Thursday April 6th.

FIFA ranking: April 2023 probable results (II)

Here are the probable results of all 209 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including March 28th, used to calculate the April 2023 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since December 20th, (probably) counting for the April ranking, are presented.

In the first column is indicated if the match is included or not, according to my inclusion-method. You see after the match identification data, the I-factor, the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo and according to FIFA in %. 

2024 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (January 2023)

Now the schedule for the UEFA Nations League 2023 Final Four is drawn, it's time to focus on the qualification for the EURO 2024 in Germany. There were 10 qualification groups drawn in October last year, 7 groups with 5 teams and 3 groups with 6 teams for a total of 53 participating teams. Germany as host is qualified automatically and Russia is banned for obvious reasons. Inexplicably, Belarus was allowed to participate though.

FIFA ranking: April 2023 probable ranking

Yes, you read it correctly, FIFA will publish the next ranking only after the March window. Contrary to previous years there won't be an official ranking in the first week of February, even if there are three tournaments played to a finish this January:

• the South-East Asian Championship 2023 started already in December with the group stage. Tomorrow the semi-finals start. Both semi-finals and final are played over home-and-away legs;
• the Gulf Cup 2023 starts tomorrow in Iraq;
• the African Nations Championship 2023 starts next week in Algeria. For African NT-teams consisting of players playing in domestic leagues only. Matches in this tournament will count for the FIFA ranking, not for the elo rating though.

FIFA ranking: April 2023 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 213 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including March 28th, used to calculate the April 2023 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since December 20th, (probably) counting for the April ranking, are presented.

In the first column is indicated if the match is included or not, according to my inclusion-method. You see after the match identification data, the I-factor, the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo and according to FIFA in %. 

For the already played matches the match result and the exchanged points are given. 

For the scheduled matches the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team are given. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) of loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.