Now the schedule for the UEFA Nations League 2023 Final Four is drawn, it's time to focus on the qualification for the EURO 2024 in Germany. There were 10 qualification groups drawn in October last year, 7 groups with 5 teams and 3 groups with 6 teams for a total of 53 participating teams. Germany as host is qualified automatically and Russia is banned for obvious reasons. Inexplicably, Belarus was allowed to participate though.
The qualification group matches are played in the 5 available international match windows this year between March and November, with the draw for the final tournament to follow in December this year. The numbers one and two of each group qualify directly for Germany. The last three berths are decided via three play-off paths, to be played in March next year.
Twelve teams will be selected to participate in the play-offs, based on their performance in the UEFA Nations League 2022 group stage. The overall UNL ranking based on the group stage performances is leading here.
These teams will be divided into three paths, each containing four teams, with one team from each path qualifying for the final tournament. The group winners of Nations Leagues A, B and C will automatically qualify for the play-off path of their league unless they have qualified directly for the final tournament. If a group winner has already qualified directly, they will be replaced by the next best-ranked team in the same league. However, if there are not enough non-qualified teams in the same league, then the spot will go first to the best-ranked group winner of League D (i.e. Estonia), unless that team qualified directly already. The remaining slots are then allocated to next best teams in the Nations League overall ranking. However, group winners of Leagues B and C cannot face teams from a higher league.
When the twelve teams are selected, they will then be allocated to paths of four teams. The draw to allocate teams to the different paths will be subject to the following general conditions:
- if four or more teams from a league enter the play-offs, a path with four teams from the league in question has to be formed.
- league B and C group winners cannot form a path with a team from a higher league.
- Additional conditions may be applied, including seeding principles, subject to approval of the UEFA Executive Committee.
With these conditions, the draw procedure is as follows, starting with League C and working up to League A:
- if there are four teams available in a given league, form a path with these four teams.
- if there are more than four teams available in a given league, draw which four teams will participate in the path of the league. Remaining teams will be drawn into a path of a higher league.
- if there are less than four teams available in a given league, draw available and eligible teams from other leagues so that four teams compose the path of the given league.
The three play-off paths will each feature two single-leg semi-finals and one single-leg final. In the semi-finals, the best-ranked team will host the fourth-ranked team, and the second-ranked team will host the third-ranked team. The host of the final will be drawn between the winners of the semi-final pairings. The three play-off path winners will join the twenty teams that already qualified for the final tournament through the group stage plus host Germany.
Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The complete match schedule for UEFA teams is simulated, including the UNL Final Four and currently scheduled friendlies in 2023.
First the group results with teams ordered by average group position (in the last column):
|
group A |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
avg |
|
|
Spain |
75,25 |
17,18 |
5,82 |
1,67 |
0,08 |
1,34 |
|
|
Norway |
11,02 |
33,31 |
31,45 |
21,78 |
2,44 |
2,71 |
|
|
Scotland |
10,55 |
33,03 |
32,60 |
21,47 |
2,35 |
2,72 |
|
|
Georgia |
3,15 |
16,13 |
28,01 |
44,99 |
7,72 |
3,38 |
|
|
Cyprus |
0,03 |
0,35 |
2,12 |
10,09 |
87,41 |
4,85 |
|
|
group B |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
avg |
|
|
France |
50,15 |
43,39 |
5,81 |
0,65 |
0,00 |
1,57 |
|
|
Netherlands |
48,14 |
44,46 |
6,19 |
1,20 |
0,01 |
1,60 |
|
|
Greece |
1,02 |
6,25 |
47,64 |
45,04 |
0,05 |
3,37 |
|
|
Republic of Ireland |
0,69 |
5,90 |
40,35 |
52,99 |
0,07 |
3,46 |
|
|
Gibraltar |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,12 |
99,87 |
5,00 |
|
|
group C |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
avg |
|
|
Italy |
44,45 |
36,21 |
17,43 |
1,86 |
0,05 |
1,77 |
|
|
England |
42,97 |
36,72 |
18,82 |
1,43 |
0,06 |
1,79 |
|
|
Ukraine |
12,29 |
25,39 |
53,21 |
8,75 |
0,36 |
2,60 |
|
|
North Macedonia |
0,29 |
1,68 |
10,25 |
74,79 |
12,99 |
3,99 |
|
|
Malta |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,29 |
13,17 |
86,54 |
4,86 |
|
|
group D |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
avg |
|
|
Croatia |
76,50 |
17,69 |
5,16 |
0,61 |
0,04 |
1,30 |
|
|
Wales |
11,21 |
39,89 |
36,98 |
10,07 |
1,85 |
2,51 |
|
|
Turkey |
11,79 |
37,55 |
37,93 |
10,51 |
2,22 |
2,54 |
|
|
Armenia |
0,43 |
3,97 |
14,58 |
50,88 |
30,14 |
4,06 |
|
|
Latvia |
0,07 |
0,90 |
5,35 |
27,93 |
65,75 |
4,58 |
|
|
group E |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
avg |
|
|
Poland |
51,34 |
38,47 |
9,45 |
0,71 |
0,03 |
1,60 |
|
|
Czech Republic |
44,11 |
43,50 |
11,33 |
0,98 |
0,08 |
1,69 |
|
|
Albania |
4,39 |
16,19 |
60,20 |
15,54 |
3,68 |
2,98 |
|
|
Faroe Islands |
0,15 |
1,47 |
12,90 |
49,93 |
35,55 |
4,19 |
|
|
Moldova |
0,01 |
0,37 |
6,12 |
32,84 |
60,66 |
4,54 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
group F |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
avg |
|
|
Belgium |
68,61 |
22,35 |
8,30 |
0,68 |
0,06 |
1,41 |
|
|
Sweden |
16,18 |
37,34 |
36,91 |
7,68 |
1,89 |
2,42 |
|
|
Austria |
14,95 |
36,98 |
39,05 |
7,58 |
1,44 |
2,44 |
|
|
Estonia |
0,13 |
1,79 |
8,62 |
43,26 |
46,20 |
4,34 |
|
|
Azerbaijan |
0,13 |
1,54 |
7,12 |
40,80 |
50,41 |
4,40 |
|
|
group G |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
avg |
|
|
Serbia |
49,60 |
38,08 |
9,98 |
2,26 |
0,08 |
1,65 |
|
|
Hungary |
44,80 |
41,77 |
10,89 |
2,49 |
0,05 |
1,71 |
|
|
Montenegro |
3,38 |
10,99 |
39,23 |
38,31 |
8,09 |
3,37 |
|
|
Bulgaria |
2,21 |
8,91 |
36,44 |
42,87 |
9,57 |
3,49 |
|
|
Lithuania |
0,01 |
0,25 |
3,46 |
14,07 |
82,21 |
4,78 |
|
|
group H |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
avg |
|
Denmark |
70,07 |
21,34 |
6,62 |
1,73 |
0,24 |
0,00 |
1,41 |
|
Finland |
14,70 |
34,38 |
29,92 |
16,14 |
4,86 |
0,00 |
2,62 |
|
Slovenia |
12,18 |
30,57 |
33,13 |
18,37 |
5,74 |
0,01 |
2,75 |
|
Northern Ireland |
2,83 |
11,37 |
22,57 |
42,04 |
21,13 |
0,06 |
3,67 |
|
Kazakhstan |
0,22 |
2,34 |
7,76 |
21,71 |
67,38 |
0,59 |
4,55 |
|
San Marino |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,65 |
99,34 |
5,99 |
|
group I |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
avg |
|
Switzerland |
82,76 |
13,32 |
3,15 |
0,70 |
0,07 |
0,00 |
1,22 |
|
Israel |
8,05 |
35,42 |
30,70 |
18,00 |
7,38 |
0,45 |
2,83 |
|
Romania |
7,02 |
33,44 |
30,86 |
19,98 |
8,16 |
0,54 |
2,90 |
|
Kosovo |
1,97 |
13,53 |
23,93 |
35,26 |
23,12 |
2,19 |
3,71 |
|
Belarus |
0,20 |
4,28 |
11,06 |
24,46 |
51,48 |
8,52 |
4,48 |
|
Andorra |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,30 |
1,60 |
9,79 |
88,30 |
5,86 |
|
group J |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
avg |
|
Portugal |
93,63 |
5,43 |
0,80 |
0,11 |
0,03 |
0,00 |
1,07 |
|
Bosnia-Herzegovina |
3,02 |
37,96 |
28,03 |
20,13 |
10,83 |
0,03 |
2,98 |
|
Slovakia |
1,95 |
28,57 |
29,27 |
25,03 |
14,95 |
0,23 |
3,23 |
|
Iceland |
1,15 |
20,96 |
26,83 |
28,90 |
21,84 |
0,32 |
3,50 |
|
Luxembourg |
0,25 |
7,08 |
15,04 |
25,72 |
50,45 |
1,46 |
4,23 |
|
Liechtenstein |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,03 |
0,11 |
1,90 |
97,96 |
5,98 |
The probabilities for each UEFA team to qualify for EURO 2024, directly (Qdirect) or via the play-offs (po-semi, po-final and po-win). In column Qtot the total probability to qualify for EURO 2024 as the sum of Qdirect and po-win. Teams are ordered by this column. UNL group winners are indicated with 'gw' and the league letter.
|
team - grp |
Qdirect |
po-semi |
po-final |
po-win |
Qtot |
|
Germany (host) |
100,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
100,00 |
|
Portugal - J |
99,06 |
0,94 |
0,77 |
0,42 |
99,48 |
|
France - B |
93,54 |
6,43 |
5,87 |
4,44 |
97,98 |
|
Netherlands - B (gw-A) |
92,60 |
7,40 |
7,12 |
5,29 |
97,89 |
|
Switzerland - I |
96,08 |
3,92 |
3,09 |
1,45 |
97,53 |
|
Croatia - D (gw-A) |
94,19 |
5,81 |
5,46 |
3,00 |
97,19 |
|
Spain - A (gw-A) |
92,43 |
7,57 |
7,04 |
4,31 |
96,74 |
|
Belgium - F |
90,96 |
9,04 |
7,92 |
4,62 |
95,58 |
|
Denmark - H |
91,41 |
8,59 |
7,22 |
3,26 |
94,67 |
|
Serbia - G (gw-B) |
87,68 |
12,32 |
9,41 |
5,97 |
93,65 |
|
Italy - C (gw-A) |
80,66 |
19,34 |
18,13 |
12,64 |
93,30 |
|
Poland - E |
89,81 |
10,12 |
7,32 |
2,90 |
92,71 |
|
England - C |
79,69 |
19,88 |
15,52 |
11,32 |
91,01 |
|
Hungary - G |
86,57 |
13,42 |
10,12 |
4,40 |
90,97 |
|
Czech Republic - E |
87,61 |
12,21 |
6,48 |
2,87 |
90,48 |
|
Scotland - A (gw-B) |
43,58 |
56,42 |
38,44 |
23,54 |
67,12 |
|
Ukraine - C |
37,68 |
60,55 |
41,47 |
27,72 |
65,40 |
|
Austria - F |
51,93 |
47,81 |
32,91 |
12,28 |
64,21 |
|
Turkey - D (gw-C) |
49,34 |
50,66 |
20,51 |
11,70 |
61,04 |
|
Finland - H |
49,08 |
50,65 |
22,11 |
9,96 |
59,04 |
|
Wales - D |
51,10 |
46,33 |
20,80 |
7,69 |
58,79 |
|
Norway - A |
44,33 |
43,75 |
23,46 |
13,12 |
57,45 |
|
Greece - B (gw-C) |
7,27 |
92,73 |
80,38 |
49,90 |
57,17 |
|
Israel - I (gw-B) |
43,47 |
56,53 |
33,07 |
11,42 |
54,89 |
|
Sweden - F |
53,52 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
53,52 |
|
Bosnia-Herzegovina
- J (gw-B) |
40,98 |
59,02 |
31,18 |
11,51 |
52,49 |
|
Georgia - A (gw-C) |
19,28 |
80,72 |
73,11 |
32,52 |
51,80 |
|
Slovenia - H |
42,75 |
37,22 |
11,45 |
4,54 |
47,29 |
|
Romania - I |
40,46 |
0,03 |
0,01 |
0,00 |
40,46 |
|
Slovakia - J |
30,52 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
30,52 |
|
Iceland - J |
22,11 |
69,73 |
14,91 |
4,05 |
26,16 |
|
Albania - E |
20,58 |
11,71 |
1,77 |
0,43 |
21,01 |
|
Kosovo - I |
15,50 |
1,85 |
0,25 |
0,17 |
15,67 |
|
Montenegro - G |
14,37 |
2,67 |
0,47 |
0,12 |
14,49 |
|
Northern Ireland - H |
14,20 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
14,20 |
|
Republic of Ireland - B |
6,59 |
35,44 |
13,12 |
6,23 |
12,82 |
|
Bulgaria - G |
11,12 |
0,42 |
0,08 |
0,05 |
11,17 |
|
Luxembourg - J |
7,33 |
58,46 |
8,95 |
2,08 |
9,41 |
|
Kazakhstan - H (gw-C) |
2,56 |
97,44 |
15,02 |
2,87 |
5,43 |
|
Belarus - I |
4,48 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
4,48 |
|
Armenia - D |
4,40 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
4,40 |
|
Estonia - F (gw-D) |
1,92 |
85,15 |
3,36 |
0,50 |
2,42 |
|
Azerbaijan - F |
1,67 |
17,66 |
1,70 |
0,71 |
2,38 |
|
North Macedonia - C |
1,97 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
1,97 |
|
Faroe Islands - E |
1,62 |
0,06 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
1,62 |
|
Latvia - D (gw-D) |
0,97 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,97 |
|
Cyprus - A |
0,38 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,38 |
|
Moldova - E |
0,38 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,38 |
|
Lithuania - G |
0,26 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,26 |
|
Andorra - I |
0,01 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
|
Gibraltar - B |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
Liechtenstein - J |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
Malta - C |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
San Marino - H |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
A first preview of the composition of the play-off paths can be determined by taking the top two from each group with highest probabilities to qualify directly out of the equation and see which teams will qualify for the play-offs in that situation:
Non-qualified group winners from leagues C to A:
From league C: Georgia (33), Greece (34), Turkey (35), Kazakhstan (36).
From league B: Scotland (20).
From league A all group winners qualify directly.
The following non group-winners (ngw) complete the play-offs:
from league A: Austria (13)
from league B: Ukraine (22), Iceland (23), Slovenia (25), Republic of Ireland (26), Albania (27)
from league D: Estonia (49)
League D - 1 group-winner
League C - 4 group-winners
League B - 1 group-winner + 5 non group-winners => draw: 2 ngw's to path A
League A - 1 non group-winner
This leads to the following play-off semi finals:
path C:
Georgia - Kazakhstan
Greece - Turkey
path B:
Scotland - draw from Slovenia/Republic of Ireland/Albania
draw from Ukraine/Iceland/Slovenia - draw from Iceland/Slovenia/Republic of Ireland
path A:
Austria - Estonia
draw from Ukraine/Iceland/Slovenia/Republic of Ireland - draw from Iceland/Slovenia/Republic of Ireland/Albania
|
team |
pot 1 |
pot 2 |
pot 3 |
pot 4 |
|
Germany |
100,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
Portugal |
65,94 |
28,28 |
3,65 |
1,61 |
|
Switzerland |
43,52 |
40,28 |
9,36 |
4,37 |
|
Croatia |
44,49 |
34,34 |
13,14 |
5,22 |
|
Spain |
38,19 |
38,59 |
12,77 |
7,19 |
|
France |
37,12 |
29,77 |
25,13 |
5,96 |
|
--------------------------- |
||||
|
Belgium |
35,67 |
35,70 |
16,70 |
7,51 |
|
Netherlands |
35,07 |
29,35 |
26,24 |
7,23 |
|
Denmark |
28,64 |
42,93 |
14,56 |
8,54 |
|
Poland |
28,34 |
29,35 |
27,90 |
7,12 |
|
Serbia |
22,89 |
31,50 |
27,46 |
11,80 |
|
Czech Republic |
22,94 |
28,73 |
30,67 |
8,14 |
|
--------------------------- |
||||
|
Italy |
22,72 |
28,19 |
27,12 |
15,27 |
|
Hungary |
20,75 |
29,53 |
29,31 |
11,38 |
|
England |
20,96 |
27,98 |
27,64 |
14,43 |
|
Austria |
3,79 |
13,28 |
24,95 |
22,19 |
|
Ukraine |
3,31 |
10,73 |
19,93 |
31,43 |
|
Scotland |
2,01 |
9,77 |
20,19 |
35,15 |
|
--------------------------- |
||||
|
Turkey |
3,36 |
10,45 |
23,78 |
23,45 |
|
Sweden |
4,31 |
13,94 |
24,77 |
10,50 |
|
Wales |
3,16 |
10,11 |
24,87 |
20,65 |
|
Finland |
2,97 |
12,90 |
18,30 |
24,87 |
|
Norway |
2,29 |
9,89 |
19,74 |
25,53 |
|
Israel |
1,23 |
7,88 |
15,90 |
29,88 |
|
Slovenia |
1,78 |
11,19 |
16,01 |
18,31 |
|
Greece |
0,15 |
1,32 |
4,47 |
51,23 |
|
Bosnia-Herzegovina |
0,61 |
3,33 |
14,18 |
34,37 |
|
Georgia |
0,35 |
2,99 |
8,34 |
40,12 |
|
Romania |
0,97 |
6,98 |
14,61 |
17,90 |
|
Slovakia |
0,30 |
2,23 |
9,61 |
18,38 |
|
Iceland |
0,17 |
1,26 |
6,35 |
18,38 |
|
Albania |
0,67 |
4,45 |
11,30 |
4,59 |
|
Montenegro |
0,55 |
3,11 |
6,71 |
4,12 |
|
Kosovo |
0,17 |
1,93 |
4,80 |
8,77 |
|
Northern Ireland |
0,19 |
2,77 |
3,83 |
7,41 |
|
Republic of Ireland |
0,12 |
0,83 |
4,24 |
7,63 |
|
Bulgaria |
0,22 |
2,17 |
5,01 |
3,77 |
|
Luxembourg |
0,02 |
0,25 |
1,29 |
7,85 |
|
Kazakhstan |
0,00 |
0,22 |
0,42 |
4,79 |
|
Armenia |
0,04 |
0,43 |
1,38 |
2,55 |
|
Belarus |
0,01 |
0,20 |
0,78 |
3,49 |
|
Estonia |
0,00 |
0,13 |
0,56 |
1,73 |
|
Azerbaijan |
0,01 |
0,13 |
0,36 |
1,88 |
|
North Macedonia |
0,00 |
0,31 |
0,82 |
0,84 |
|
Faroe Islands |
0,00 |
0,17 |
0,54 |
0,91 |
|
Latvia |
0,00 |
0,07 |
0,16 |
0,74 |
|
Moldova |
0,00 |
0,02 |
0,07 |
0,29 |
|
Cyprus |
0,00 |
0,03 |
0,03 |
0,32 |
|
Lithuania |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,05 |
0,20 |
|
Andorra |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
|
Gibraltar |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
Liechtenstein |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
Malta |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
|
San Marino |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
I hope you had as much fun as I did reading through the Playoff formation rules and trying to simulate that. It will become moderately straightforward as groups shake out but in my experience it was not so simple to simulate off the bat!
ReplyDeleteI had the advantage that I implemented the play-off selection and formation rules already in my simulation software for the previous EURO qualification campaign (2020). This time only the role of Estonia as best league D group winner needed to be added and there is no league D path anymore to fill.
DeleteSo that wasn't too much coding needed to get it working with the new rules :)
Poor Estonia falling into that A bracket playoff.....
DeletePoor Estonia can be happy for a given chance.
DeleteThe new format for the Nations League and EUFA World Cup qualification is flawed.
ReplyDeleteBy that I don’t mean it is something that I disagree with or dislike.
It is actually impossible for it to occur as published without heavily manipulating the World Cup qualifying draw so that all 12 of the World Cup pot 2, 3 and 4 teams who also play in the Nations League Promotion and Relegation matches in March 2025 are drawn into groups A-E (the 5 groups of 4) meaning only 3 of the 20 teams in groups A-E won’t be in the QF or P/R subset, while 28 of the 35 teams in Groups F-L won’t be either.
As all Pot 1 teams would be on a bye in March (8 in the QF and 4 in the P/R) games meaning pot 1 teams in Groups F-L use both their byes and no other team in Groups F-L can also be on a bye as well.
A knockout QF and P/R format would make it easier to have an open WC draw, but only if QF are spread across WCQ 1 and 2 and/or P/R games are also spread across MD1-4.
Another issue as it stands is the 8 Quarter Finalists may need to be drawn into WCQ groups A-H after the QF are played, as the winners need to be in WCQ groups A-Otherwise all 8 teams need to have 4 WCQ byes which is impossible if all are in Pot 1 and their are only 5 groups with 4 teams.
My simplest solution is to run with 13 groups and have 10 groups of 4 and 3 groups of 5, with groups A-H having the QF and the 5 other pot 1 teams being drawn into 2 Groups of 4 and 3 groups of 5 which could then have a pot 2, 3 or 4 team in the P/R matches if one of the 2 teams play their P/R games in June 2025 rather than in March of the same year.
However that leaves 13 group winners and only 3 more spots which means a lot of headaches in working out a suitable way of allocating the last 3 WC positions.
It is much simpler than it looks. In Pot 1 all 12 teams will play in March QF and P/R. QF winners must be placed in groups of 4 teams. So during the draw we will have 4 teams called for example: winner QF1, winner QF2 and so on and 4 called loser QF1, loser QF2... This means that the final composition of all groups will be known after the QF matches. What abouts pots 2, 3 and 4? In each of them will be 4 teams that will play in March P/R. And all of these teams will have to placed to groups of 4 teams. In this way we will get in each group of 5 teams 4 teams that will not participate in QF
Deleteand P/R in March. So they will start WCQ in March
You have confirmation that FIFA ranking won't be used to seed the teams?
DeleteI don't have confirmation. I just explained how to do it. In my opinion, if Fifa doesn't agree to pots based on UNL ranking, it will be impossible to draw groups before QF and P/R matches. But as you mentioned about Fifa. In June 2025, Fifa is planning a Club World Cup for 32 teams. Interesting... UNL final, WCQ, CWC. Footballers are people, won't they be overworked? There will be more and more people like Varane who will not play for the national team.
DeleteOne potential concern is teams gaming the Euro draw by winning / losing Nations League Playoff games (if they value Euro pool over Nations League result, possible). I doubt this is a true issue, but certainly in play.
Delete"In each of them will be 4 teams that will play in March P/R. And all of these teams will have to placed to groups of 4 teams. In this way we will get in each group of 5 teams 4 teams that will not participate in QF and P/R in March. So they will start WCQ in March"
DeleteSo if all of the 12 teams in Pots 2, 3 and 4 will be in Groups A-E, then based on notional rankings based on UNL league play each of Pots 2-4 are effectively split in 2 and the weakest 4 teams in Pot 2, strongest 4 teams in Pot 3 and strongest 4 teams in Pot 4 have a very high chance of being drawn against the strongest 4 teams in Pot 1
Accompanied by all of EUFA's geo-political restrictions and the general principles around open draws it sounds like a very tough sell.
However I have reconsidered my earlier discussion and there may be a way forward whereby 2 P/R teams (Pot 1 and one of Pots 2, 3 and 4) are drawn into a Group of 5.
In March the other 3 teams play 2 matches each across 3 match days on days 1, 5 and 9 of the window. Similarly in June the 5 teams play 2 games each totalling 5 games across the window, again spread across 3 match days on days 1, 5 and 9. That way, like regular 5 team groups 8 games have been played across the opening 2 windows allowing for regular scheduling on MD 5-10.
In this way a better WCQ draw constraint might be a maximum of 1 P/R team from Pots 2, 3 or 4 playing in the 5 team groups and a maximum of 2 in the 4 team groups.
"One potential concern is teams gaming the Euro draw by winning / losing Nations League Playoff games (if they value Euro pool over Nations League result, possible). I doubt this is a true issue, but certainly in play."
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely, not only is the drawn known but Group Play will have started and other strong teams in the group may have dropped points meaning that teams may have incentive to lose a QF in order to increase their chance if a favourable group.
Notwithstanding less P/R matches, multiple P/R windows and/or more 4 team groups would be far simpler and fairer in my view.
Match window means THU, FRI, SAT, SUN, MON, TUE or starting from WED for UNL semifinal in June.
ReplyDelete"So if all of the 12 teams in Pots 2, 3 and 4 will be in Groups A-E, then based on notional rankings based on UNL league play each of Pots 2-4 are effectively split in 2 and the weakest 4 teams in Pot 2, strongest 4 teams in Pot 3 and strongest 4 teams in Pot 4 have a very high chance of being drawn against the strongest 4 teams in Pot 1".
ReplyDeleteAgree, but plenty other sport use this way for example NBA, NHL, european volleyball leagues (Pol, Ita) for their play-off rounds.
I won't be surprised if that's the case.
Anyway, uefa has been doing similar things for years during the draw of the champions league groups, some stupid groups red, blue and only the computer knows what's going on.
It appears that teams in CONCACAF WCQ Stage 2 for 2026 will be having 5 games for each of the 5 team groups (2 per team) per window (3-11 June 2024 and June 2025) meaning that any teams also competing in the Copa America 2024 tournament would most likely need to play WCQ on 3rd and 7th June 2024 ahead of Copa MD1 from 14-17 June or thereabouts.
ReplyDeleteSo optimally the dates would be 2 * June 3, 2 * June 7 and 1 * June 11 with only CNL League B and C playing on the last date of the window unless the Stage 2 draw is done after the Copa America sides are already known.