In the month of January three tournaments were played to a finish: the South-East Asian Championship 2023, the Gulf Cup 2023 in Iraq and the African Nations Championship in Algeria. FIFA will publish the next ranking only after the March window. Contrary to previous years there won't be an official ranking in the first week of February. Reason enough to publish an intermediate preview of the April ranking.
In the international match window in March the following matches are scheduled:
- match days 3 and 4 in qualification for the African Nations Cup 2024;
- match days 1 and 2 in qualification for the EURO 2024;
- the group stage of the CONCACAF Nations League 2023 is played to a conclusion;
- some friendlies.
Here is the probable April 2023 ranking, to be published on Thursday April 6th.
This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 209 currently played and scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 225 currently played and scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which matches, both played and scheduled, are currently included.
pos Apr. |
team |
pts Apr. |
+/- pos |
+/- pts |
1 |
Brazil |
1840,77 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
France |
1838,45 |
1 |
15,06 |
3 |
Argentina |
1838,38 |
-1 |
0 |
4 |
Belgium |
1770,14 |
0 |
-11,16 |
5 |
England |
1767,92 |
0 |
-6,27 |
6 |
Croatia |
1742,28 |
1 |
14,66 |
7 |
Italy |
1738,54 |
1 |
14,98 |
8 |
Netherlands |
1731,23 |
-2 |
-9,69 |
9 |
Spain |
1707,85 |
1 |
15,14 |
10 |
Portugal |
1707,07 |
-1 |
4,53 |
11 |
Morocco |
1671,29 |
0 |
-1,06 |
12 |
Switzerland |
1664,44 |
0 |
9,42 |
13 |
Germany |
1657,31 |
1 |
10,40 |
14 |
USA |
1653,83 |
-1 |
1,09 |
15 |
Mexico |
1641,42 |
0 |
5,64 |
16 |
Uruguay |
1627,45 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
Denmark |
1619,53 |
1 |
11,42 |
18 |
Senegal |
1613,21 |
1 |
9,23 |
19 |
Colombia |
1612,07 |
-2 |
-0,71 |
20 |
Japan |
1593,26 |
0 |
0,18 |
21 |
Sweden |
1571,03 |
2 |
12,58 |
22 |
Peru |
1561,14 |
-1 |
-3,16 |
23 |
Poland |
1553,76 |
-1 |
-6,07 |
24 |
Iran |
1551,73 |
0 |
0 |
25 |
Serbia |
1540,99 |
4 |
14,53 |
26 |
Korea Republic |
1540,19 |
-1 |
0,70 |
27 |
Tunisia |
1535,76 |
3 |
9,56 |
28 |
Australia |
1533,97 |
-1 |
0 |
29 |
Ukraine |
1529,55 |
-3 |
-7,44 |
30 |
Wales |
1526,62 |
-2 |
-3,66 |
31 |
Austria |
1508,24 |
3 |
11,00 |
32 |
Czech Republic |
1507,54 |
6 |
16,93 |
33 |
Cameroon |
1507,30 |
0 |
8,00 |
34 |
Chile |
1506,91 |
-3 |
0 |
35 |
Costa Rica |
1506,16 |
-3 |
5,98 |
36 |
Nigeria |
1504,96 |
-1 |
10,64 |
37 |
Hungary |
1504,79 |
-1 |
11,46 |
38 |
Algeria |
1504,19 |
2 |
17,47 |
39 |
Egypt |
1500,67 |
0 |
10,33 |
40 |
Russia |
1491,26 |
-3 |
0 |
41 |
Ecuador |
1477,32 |
0 |
0 |
42 |
Scotland |
1475,52 |
0 |
-1,42 |
43 |
Turkey |
1465,94 |
1 |
0,56 |
44 |
Norway |
1463,73 |
-1 |
-11,32 |
45 |
Mali |
1455,75 |
0 |
6,70 |
46 |
Cote d'Ivoire |
1449,95 |
1 |
8,46 |
47 |
Burkina Faso |
1446,41 |
3 |
11,60 |
48 |
Paraguay |
1445,06 |
-2 |
0 |
49 |
Romania |
1444,58 |
3 |
11,94 |
50 |
Canada |
1442,59 |
3 |
10,95 |
51 |
Greece |
1438,01 |
0 |
4,42 |
52 |
Republic of Ireland |
1436,31 |
-4 |
-2,28 |
53 |
Slovakia |
1433,48 |
1 |
7,90 |
54 |
Saudi Arabia |
1433,01 |
-5 |
-5,12 |
55 |
Bosnia-Herzegovina |
1415,84 |
2 |
12,33 |
56 |
Ghana |
1408,51 |
2 |
8,49 |
57 |
Venezuela |
1406,10 |
-2 |
0 |
58 |
Slovenia |
1398,47 |
4 |
9,41 |
59 |
Northern Ireland |
1398,43 |
0 |
1,88 |
60 |
Finland |
1392,81 |
-4 |
-12,90 |
61 |
Qatar |
1388,62 |
-1 |
-4,94 |
62 |
Panama |
1387,16 |
-1 |
-4,54 |
63 |
Jamaica |
1375,23 |
1 |
-4,06 |
64 |
Iceland |
1369,03 |
-1 |
-11,32 |
65 |
North Macedonia |
1363,07 |
0 |
7,79 |
66 |
South Africa |
1362,14 |
1 |
11,78 |
67 |
Iraq |
1352,75 |
1 |
10,36 |
68 |
Cape Verde Islands |
1349,08 |
4 |
13,03 |
69 |
Albania |
1344,95 |
-3 |
-8,08 |
70 |
Bulgaria |
1340,19 |
1 |
3,48 |
71 |
Congo DR |
1338,61 |
2 |
4,69 |
72 |
United Arab Emirates |
1334,12 |
-2 |
-4,36 |
73 |
Oman |
1329,72 |
2 |
8,48 |
74 |
El Salvador |
1323,25 |
0 |
-3,61 |
75 |
Gabon |
1321,74 |
4 |
16,27 |
76 |
Israel |
1319,71 |
0 |
4,04 |
77 |
Montenegro |
1318,80 |
-8 |
-20,35 |
78 |
Uzbekistan |
1312,64 |
-1 |
0 |
79 |
Georgia |
1309,74 |
-1 |
3,76 |
80 |
Honduras |
1295,45 |
1 |
-5,33 |
81 |
Bolivia |
1294,96 |
1 |
0 |
82 |
Guinea |
1293,42 |
1 |
2,95 |
83 |
China PR |
1293,07 |
-3 |
-11,99 |
84 |
Jordan |
1289,99 |
0 |
0 |
85 |
Bahrain |
1282,77 |
0 |
2,50 |
86 |
Zambia |
1280,52 |
2 |
15,37 |
87 |
Haiti |
1276,12 |
0 |
7,05 |
88 |
Curacao |
1273,28 |
-2 |
-5,36 |
89 |
Uganda |
1268,68 |
0 |
7,99 |
90 |
Benin |
1252,41 |
1 |
4,94 |
91 |
Syria |
1247,14 |
-1 |
-4,32 |
92 |
Palestine |
1233,72 |
1 |
0 |
93 |
Luxembourg |
1233,43 |
-1 |
-11,92 |
94 |
Kyrgyzstan |
1232,91 |
0 |
0 |
95 |
Vietnam |
1229,69 |
1 |
1,06 |
96 |
Armenia |
1229,08 |
-1 |
-2,68 |
97 |
Congo |
1221,88 |
2 |
13,09 |
98 |
Equatorial Guinea |
1220,28 |
0 |
4,62 |
99 |
Madagascar |
1217,55 |
3 |
16,81 |
100 |
Belarus |
1210,17 |
-3 |
-11,51 |
101 |
Lebanon |
1206,58 |
-1 |
-1,89 |
102 |
New Zealand |
1205,97 |
3 |
11,99 |
103 |
Trinidad and Tobago |
1204,28 |
1 |
8,99 |
104 |
Kenya |
1202,26 |
-3 |
0 |
105 |
Mauritania |
1194,28 |
-2 |
-3,30 |
106 |
India |
1192,09 |
0 |
0 |
107 |
Tajikistan |
1187,02 |
1 |
0 |
108 |
Kosovo |
1186,54 |
-1 |
-0,49 |
109 |
Estonia |
1182,50 |
0 |
-3,77 |
110 |
Thailand |
1179,77 |
1 |
6,37 |
111 |
Cyprus |
1174,45 |
-1 |
-10,72 |
112 |
Sierra Leone |
1173,81 |
4 |
13,50 |
113 |
Korea DPR |
1169,96 |
-1 |
0 |
114 |
Guatemala |
1160,80 |
5 |
3,24 |
115 |
Mozambique |
1154,64 |
-1 |
-8,93 |
116 |
Namibia |
1153,40 |
-3 |
-10,73 |
117 |
Kazakhstan |
1152,05 |
-2 |
-11,04 |
118 |
Guinea-Bissau |
1148,13 |
0 |
-10,64 |
119 |
Angola |
1146,07 |
-2 |
-12,74 |
120 |
Libya |
1145,82 |
0 |
-10,92 |
121 |
Niger |
1142,57 |
1 |
-5,96 |
122 |
Azerbaijan |
1142,42 |
-1 |
-9,40 |
123 |
Faroe Islands |
1138,98 |
0 |
-7,33 |
124 |
Zimbabwe |
1138,56 |
1 |
0 |
125 |
Malawi |
1134,64 |
-1 |
-10,33 |
126 |
Gambia |
1125,99 |
0 |
-11,58 |
127 |
Antigua and Barbuda |
1122,51 |
4 |
5,50 |
128 |
Togo |
1117,31 |
-1 |
-11,61 |
129 |
Tanzania |
1114,50 |
1 |
-5,39 |
130 |
Comoros |
1111,89 |
-1 |
-11,29 |
131 |
Latvia |
1110,38 |
2 |
-6,58 |
132 |
Central African Republic |
1109,36 |
0 |
-7,61 |
133 |
Sudan |
1107,62 |
-5 |
-19,72 |
134 |
Philippines |
1106,38 |
0 |
-6,77 |
135 |
Turkmenistan |
1100,47 |
0 |
0 |
136 |
Solomon Islands |
1095,70 |
0 |
0 |
137 |
Rwanda |
1088,72 |
0 |
-4,94 |
138 |
Ethiopia |
1085,49 |
0 |
-5,70 |
139 |
St. Kitts and Nevis |
1081,40 |
1 |
4,49 |
140 |
Suriname |
1075,73 |
-1 |
-1,57 |
141 |
Burundi |
1075,27 |
0 |
0 |
142 |
Malaysia |
1072,00 |
3 |
5,40 |
143 |
Nicaragua |
1071,66 |
-1 |
-0,08 |
144 |
Lithuania |
1063,53 |
0 |
-5,59 |
145 |
Hong Kong |
1062,39 |
1 |
0 |
146 |
Kuwait |
1059,09 |
2 |
2,45 |
147 |
Eswatini |
1057,86 |
-4 |
-13,03 |
148 |
Botswana |
1049,81 |
1 |
-4,62 |
149 |
Lesotho |
1046,02 |
-2 |
-15,38 |
150 |
Indonesia |
1040,58 |
1 |
6,68 |
151 |
Dominican Republic |
1038,13 |
1 |
6,27 |
152 |
Liberia |
1037,87 |
-2 |
-11,79 |
153 |
Afghanistan |
1023,04 |
2 |
0 |
154 |
Maldives |
1021,18 |
2 |
0 |
155 |
Chinese Taipei |
1021,02 |
2 |
0 |
156 |
Yemen |
1020,37 |
-2 |
-3,15 |
157 |
Andorra |
1017,74 |
-4 |
-13,39 |
158 |
Singapore |
1009,36 |
2 |
3,26 |
159 |
Papua New Guinea |
1007,46 |
-1 |
0 |
160 |
Myanmar |
999,52 |
-1 |
-6,64 |
161 |
New Caledonia |
995,58 |
0 |
0 |
162 |
Tahiti |
995,11 |
0 |
0 |
163 |
Fiji |
989,43 |
0 |
0 |
164 |
Cuba |
986,20 |
4 |
7,55 |
165 |
Vanuatu |
985,62 |
-1 |
0 |
166 |
Puerto Rico |
985,41 |
4 |
11,09 |
167 |
Bermuda |
981,11 |
2 |
3,64 |
168 |
St. Lucia |
976,48 |
4 |
11,75 |
169 |
Malta |
972,91 |
-2 |
-6,04 |
170 |
South Sudan |
969,38 |
-5 |
-14,60 |
171 |
Barbados |
969,22 |
-5 |
-13,05 |
172 |
Guyana |
968,53 |
-1 |
-0,21 |
173 |
Grenada |
962,71 |
0 |
-1,01 |
174 |
Moldova |
960,41 |
0 |
1,53 |
175 |
Nepal |
956,94 |
0 |
0 |
176 |
Cambodia |
948,59 |
1 |
1,93 |
177 |
St. Vincent and the Grenadines |
945,78 |
1 |
0,53 |
178 |
Belize |
939,91 |
-2 |
-10,97 |
179 |
Mauritius |
932,02 |
1 |
0 |
180 |
Montserrat |
930,31 |
-1 |
-10,47 |
181 |
Chad |
930,22 |
0 |
0 |
182 |
Macau |
922,10 |
0 |
0 |
183 |
Mongolia |
913,55 |
0 |
0 |
184 |
Bhutan |
910,96 |
1 |
0 |
185 |
Dominica |
904,84 |
-1 |
-6,67 |
186 |
Laos |
901,13 |
1 |
-4,38 |
187 |
American Samoa |
900,27 |
1 |
0 |
188 |
Cook Islands |
899,33 |
1 |
0 |
189 |
Sao Tomé e PrÃncipe |
894,67 |
-3 |
-13,51 |
190 |
Samoa |
894,26 |
1 |
0 |
191 |
Brunei Darussalam |
891,12 |
-1 |
-6,90 |
192 |
Bangladesh |
884,45 |
0 |
0 |
193 |
Djibouti |
875,05 |
0 |
0 |
194 |
Pakistan |
864,72 |
1 |
0 |
195 |
Tonga |
861,81 |
1 |
0 |
196 |
Timor-Leste |
860,45 |
1 |
0 |
197 |
Cayman Islands |
859,83 |
-3 |
-5,89 |
198 |
Seychelles |
859,56 |
1 |
0 |
199 |
Liechtenstein |
855,77 |
-1 |
-4,07 |
200 |
Eritrea |
855,56 |
1 |
0 |
201 |
Gibraltar |
854,72 |
-1 |
-3,32 |
201 |
Somalia |
854,72 |
3 |
0 |
203 |
Aruba |
850,88 |
-1 |
-4,49 |
204 |
Bahamas |
845,36 |
-1 |
-9,44 |
205 |
Turks and Caicos Islands |
839,39 |
1 |
7,39 |
206 |
Guam |
838,33 |
-1 |
0 |
207 |
Sri Lanka |
825,25 |
0 |
0 |
208 |
US Virgin Islands |
816,59 |
0 |
-7,38 |
209 |
British Virgin Islands |
804,11 |
0 |
-5,21 |
210 |
Anguilla |
785,66 |
0 |
-5,08 |
211 |
San Marino |
759,12 |
0 |
-4,03 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
Morocco has scheduled friendly games against Brazil and Peru - how many points could they gain if they win both
ReplyDelete25/3 MAR-BRA W: 6,56; D: 1,56; L: -3,44
ReplyDelete28/3 MAR-PER W: 3,94; D: -1,06; L: -6,06
Hello. Can you explain CONCACAF national teams ranking formula?
ReplyDeleteHi George, the CONCACAF ranking is based on the same sort of formula as the elo-rating. It determines a win probability based on difference in strengths between both teams in a match and compares that win-probability with the realised match result (multiplied with a match type factor) to determine the number of points that each team wins or loses because of the match result.
ReplyDeleteIt's a pity that all documentation about this system that I could find is so vague and without formulas that I can't calculate and maintain it real-time.
How can I contact previous host of this blog, Eduard Ranghiuc?
ReplyDeleteHi George, send me an e-mail using the address in my profile.,,
DeleteIndia scheduled to play 2 friendly matches but here in this list it's missing...
ReplyDeleteJust like other friendlies (for Argentina and Brazil to name a few) that weren't published or confirmed at the time this predicted ranking was established (February 8th).
ReplyDeletePlease make a Probable Rankings of April further based on results till March
ReplyDeleteI will give a final preview of the April ranking after the conclusion of this International Match window on Wednesday.
DeleteMexico lose an additional two points for fielding an ineligible player in a friendly against Guatemala in April 2022. The sanction of Mexico losing the game was announced in January and the points are deducted in this publication. Mexico had drawn the game and now it counts as a loss.
ReplyDeleteHey Rodrigo, thanks for this info. That was the one thing I couldn't solve comparing the published ranking with my calculations. Now I can finalize my April ranking.
Delete