2024 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (April 2023)

In March the first two match days of qualification for EURO 2024 have been played. See here for all the details of the qualification process and the simulation results before the groups started.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The complete match schedule for UEFA teams is simulated, including the UNL Final Four and currently scheduled friendlies in 2023.

First the group results with teams ordered by average group position (in the last column):

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th		avg
Spain	55,83	33,81	7,89	2,41	0,06		1,57
Scotland	34,47	38,87	19,42	7,15	0,09		2,00
Norway	6,76	19,56	47,22	24,40	2,06		2,95
Georgia	2,92	7,68	23,76	56,81	8,83		3,61
Cyprus	0,02	0,08	1,71	9,23	88,96		4,87
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th		avg
France	87,69	11,73	0,58	0,00	0,00		1,13
Netherlands	11,64	79,07	8,09	1,20	0,00		1,99
Greece	0,62	5,36	52,94	41,07	0,01		3,34
Republic of Ireland	0,05	3,84	38,39	57,70	0,02		3,54
Gibraltar	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,03	99,97		5,00
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th		avg
England	86,50	12,10	1,34	0,06	0,00		1,15
Italy	9,81	58,98	28,07	3,14	0,00		2,25
Ukraine	3,46	26,75	57,71	11,86	0,22		2,79
North Macedonia	0,23	2,17	12,77	77,18	7,65		3,90
Malta	0,00	0,00	0,11	7,76	92,13		4,92
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th		avg
Croatia	77,45	19,99	2,44	0,12	0,00		1,25
Wales	17,67	44,02	33,92	4,04	0,35		2,25
Turkey	4,80	34,73	54,31	5,49	0,67		2,63
Armenia	0,05	0,72	5,58	54,32	39,33		4,32
Latvia	0,03	0,54	3,75	36,03	59,65		4,55
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th		avg
Czech Republic	48,66	41,88	9,19	0,26	0,01		1,61
Poland	46,98	44,81	7,85	0,34	0,02		1,62
Albania	4,25	12,39	64,65	14,17	4,54		3,02
Faroe Islands	0,09	0,75	12,67	53,52	32,97		4,19
Moldova	0,02	0,17	5,64	31,71	62,46		4,56
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th		avg
Belgium	87,34	11,30	1,29	0,07	0,00		1,14
Austria	10,15	49,79	35,44	4,41	0,21		2,35
Sweden	2,42	37,16	50,79	8,57	1,06		2,69
Estonia	0,06	1,48	8,45	48,18	41,83		4,30
Azerbaijan	0,03	0,27	4,03	38,77	56,90		4,52
group G	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th		avg
Serbia	61,06	35,86	2,80	0,28	0,00		1,42
Hungary	37,81	52,17	9,30	0,68	0,04		1,73
Montenegro	0,99	10,77	68,97	16,58	2,69		3,09
Bulgaria	0,13	1,04	14,81	62,14	21,88		4,05
Lithuania	0,01	0,16	4,12	20,32	75,39		4,71
group H	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Denmark	52,50	30,09	14,18	2,83	0,40	0,00	1,69
Slovenia	25,71	30,70	30,19	10,87	2,53	0,00	2,34
Finland	20,35	33,00	33,18	10,42	3,05	0,00	2,43
Northern Ireland	0,93	3,97	12,48	39,88	42,73	0,01	4,20
Kazakhstan	0,51	2,24	9,97	36,00	51,23	0,05	4,35
San Marino	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,06	99,94	6,00
group I	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Switzerland	89,77	9,37	0,73	0,13	0,00	0,00	1,11
Romania	8,30	53,62	24,81	11,02	2,22	0,03	2,45
Israel	1,22	25,88	38,96	23,72	9,35	0,87	3,17
Kosovo	0,67	8,41	22,75	37,00	26,76	4,41	3,94
Belarus	0,04	2,70	12,43	25,57	47,93	11,33	4,53
Andorra	0,00	0,02	0,32	2,56	13,74	83,36	5,80
group J	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Portugal	97,23	2,38	0,35	0,04	0,00	0,00	1,03
Bosnia-Herzegovina	1,14	37,66	31,97	20,71	8,49	0,03	2,98
Slovakia	1,21	35,71	30,63	22,46	9,96	0,03	3,04
Iceland	0,40	16,01	22,02	31,12	30,40	0,05	3,75
Luxembourg	0,02	8,24	15,03	25,66	50,39	0,66	4,20
Liechtenstein	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,01	0,76	99,23	5,99

The probabilities for each UEFA team to qualify for EURO 2024, directly (Qdirect) or via the play-offs (po-semi, po-final and po-win). In column Qtot the total probability to qualify for EURO 2024 as the sum of Qdirect and po-win. Teams are ordered by this column. UNL group winners are indicated with 'gw' and the league letter.
In the last column you can find the difference in Qtot (in %-points) compared to the simulation results before the groups started.

team - grp	Qdirect	po-semi	po-final	po-win	Qtot	diff
Germany (host)	100,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	100,00	0,00
Portugal - J	99,61	0,39	0,33	0,22	99,83	0,35
France - B	99,42	0,58	0,53	0,41	99,83	1,85
England - C	98,60	1,38	1,16	0,84	99,44	8,43
Switzerland - I	99,14	0,85	0,67	0,29	99,43	1,90
Belgium - F	98,64	1,36	1,14	0,71	99,35	3,77
Croatia - D (gw-A)	97,44	2,56	2,48	1,46	98,90	1,71
Serbia - G (gw-B)	96,92	3,08	2,47	1,67	98,59	4,94
Netherlands - B (gw-A)	90,71	9,29	8,92	6,60	97,31	-0,58
Spain - A (gw-A)	89,64	10,36	9,76	6,02	95,66	-1,08
Poland - E	91,79	8,20	5,83	2,41	94,20	1,49
Hungary - G	89,98	10,01	7,62	3,42	93,40	2,43
Czech Republic - E	90,54	9,32	5,86	2,71	93,25	2,77
Italy - C (gw-A)	68,79	31,21	29,62	21,03	89,82	-3,48
Denmark - H	82,59	17,41	14,57	6,85	89,44	-5,23
Scotland - A (gw-B)	73,34	26,66	19,58	13,08	86,42	19,30
Austria - F	59,94	39,88	27,79	11,21	71,15	6,94
Wales - D	61,69	37,33	19,27	7,74	69,43	10,64
Ukraine - C	30,21	69,33	51,16	34,68	64,89	-0,51
Finland - H	53,35	46,63	22,37	9,34	62,69	3,65
Romania - I	61,92	0,03	0,02	0,01	61,93	21,47
Slovenia - H	56,41	33,95	12,08	4,68	61,09	13,80
Turkey - D (gw-C)	39,53	60,47	20,97	12,89	52,42	-8,62
Greece - B (gw-C)	5,98	94,02	78,87	45,84	51,82	-5,35
Bosnia-Herzegovina - J (gw-B)	38,80	61,20	32,17	12,18	50,98	-1,51
Norway - A	26,32	64,33	37,79	22,45	48,77	-8,68
Georgia - A (gw-C)	10,60	89,40	81,09	36,74	47,34	-4,46
Israel - I (gw-B)	27,10	72,90	42,25	14,44	41,54	-13,35
Sweden - F	39,58	0,00	0,00	0,00	39,58	-13,94
Slovakia - J	36,92	0,00	0,00	0,00	36,92	6,40
Iceland - J	16,41	79,77	17,86	4,55	20,96	-5,20
Albania - E	16,64	18,17	2,99	0,81	17,45	-3,56
Republic of Ireland - B	3,89	49,13	18,86	8,92	12,81	-0,01
Montenegro - G	11,76	3,38	0,67	0,28	12,04	-2,45
Luxembourg - J	8,26	46,37	5,74	1,48	9,74	0,33
Kosovo - I	9,08	0,96	0,23	0,14	9,22	-6,45
Kazakhstan - H (gw-C)	2,75	97,25	12,05	2,61	5,36	-0,07
Northern Ireland - H	4,90	0,00	0,00	0,00	4,90	-9,30
Belarus - I	2,74	0,00	0,00	0,00	2,74	-1,74
Estonia - F (gw-D)	1,54	91,31	4,18	0,99	2,53	0,11
North Macedonia - C	2,40	0,00	0,00	0,00	2,40	0,43
Bulgaria - G	1,17	0,08	0,00	0,00	1,17	-10,00
Faroe Islands - E	0,84	0,01	0,00	0,00	0,84	-0,78
Armenia - D	0,77	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,77	-3,63
Azerbaijan - F	0,30	11,44	1,05	0,30	0,60	-1,78
Latvia - D (gw-D)	0,57	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,57	-0,40
Moldova - E	0,19	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,19	-0,19
Lithuania - G	0,17	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,17	-0,09
Cyprus - A	0,10	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,10	-0,28
Andorra - I	0,02	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,02	0,01
Gibraltar - B	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Liechtenstein - J	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
Malta - C	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00
San Marino - H	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00

A first preview of the composition of the play-off paths can be determined by taking the top two from each group with highest probabilities to qualify directly out of the equation and see which teams will qualify for the play-offs in that situation:

Non-qualified group winners from leagues C to A:

From league C: Georgia (33), Greece (34), Turkey (35), Kazakhstan (36).

From league B: Israel (17).

From league A: all group winners qualify directly.

The following non group-winners (ngw) complete the play-offs:

from league B: Finland (21), Ukraine (22), Iceland (23), Norway (24), Republic of Ireland (26), Albania (27)

from league D: Estonia (49)

So we have:

League D - 1 group-winner

League C - 4 group-winners

League B - 1 group-winner + 6 non group-winners => draw: 3 ngw's to path A

This leads to the following play-off semi finals:

path C:

Georgia - Kazakhstan

Greece - Turkey

path B:

Israel - draw from Iceland/Norway/Republic of Ireland/Albania

draw from Finland/Ukraine/Iceland/Norway - draw from Ukraine/Iceland/Norway/Republic of Ireland

path A:

draw from Finland/Ukraine/Iceland/Norway - Estonia

draw from Ukraine/Iceland/Norway/Republic of Ireland - draw from Iceland/Norway/Republic of Ireland/Albania

Finally a preview of the pots for the draw of the final EURO 2024 tournament. 

Each of the four pots will contain 6 teams. Germany as host will be in pot 1, the other 20 directly qualified teams are seeded in pots, based on the overall EURO 2024 qualification ranking. The three play-off path winners are always seeded in pot 4.

The teams are ordered by average overall EURO 2024 qualification ranking position, weighted with the probability to qualify (direct or via play-offs):

team	pot 1	pot 2	pot 3	pot 4
Germany	100,00	0	0	0
Portugal	74,30	23,16	1,75	0,62
France	74,28	19,85	5,22	0,48
Belgium	62,96	26,62	8,22	1,55
England	59,33	30,15	8,70	1,26
Switzerland	53,80	37,08	6,39	2,16
---------------------------
Croatia	37,58	44,19	14,49	2,64
Serbia	35,78	31,94	26,16	4,71
Spain	12,48	46,38	25,46	11,34
Czech Republic	13,80	39,71	32,28	7,46
Hungary	20,70	26,28	36,94	9,48
Poland	13,20	37,88	34,73	8,39
---------------------------
Netherlands	8,11	34,88	43,70	10,62
Denmark	6,40	46,64	19,33	17,07
Scotland	6,86	29,76	27,88	21,92
Italy	3,79	12,98	46,05	27,00
Wales	4,69	15,21	31,65	17,88
Austria	3,48	9,68	33,39	24,60
---------------------------
Slovenia	3,15	22,86	16,90	18,18
Finland	1,21	19,56	18,57	23,35
Romania	1,62	8,03	20,87	31,41
Ukraine	0,70	4,82	20,60	38,77
Turkey	0,65	5,15	24,26	22,36
Norway	0,06	6,80	12,01	29,90
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0,03	1,30	9,32	40,33
Greece	0,10	0,74	3,71	47,27
Sweden	0,42	3,77	24,35	11,04
Georgia	0,05	2,89	3,94	40,46
Israel	0,04	1,55	8,08	31,87
Slovakia	0,09	1,26	7,59	27,98
Albania	0,23	4,19	8,41	4,62
Iceland	0	0,42	1,99	18,55
Montenegro	0,06	1,16	6,66	4,16
Republic of Ireland	0,01	0,21	2,64	9,95
Kosovo	0,03	0,72	3,08	5,39
Luxembourg	0	0,02	0,52	9,20
Northern Ireland	0	0,93	1,12	2,85
Kazakhstan	0	0,51	0,35	4,50
North Macedonia	0,01	0,22	1,06	1,11
Belarus	0	0,04	0,11	2,59
Estonia	0	0,06	0,30	2,17
Bulgaria	0	0,15	0,53	0,49
Faroe Islands	0	0,09	0,21	0,54
Armenia	0	0,05	0,22	0,50
Latvia	0	0,03	0,15	0,39
Azerbaijan	0	0,03	0,03	0,54
Moldova	0	0,02	0,05	0,12
Lithuania	0	0,01	0,03	0,13
Cyprus	0	0,02	0	0,08
Andorra	0	0	0	0,02
Gibraltar	0	0	0	0
Liechtenstein	0	0	0	0
Malta	0	0	0	0
San Marino	0	0	0	0

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.