This Summer the only continental showdown to be played is the Gold Cup 2023. From the Nations League 2023 group stage 12 teams have qualified and Qatar is once again the strange guest, or should I say well-rewarded sponsor? The last three participants are determined in three paths of one-off play-off matches (two semi finals and a final) to be played one week before the main tournament starts.
The USA is once again the host, although the first match of Canada in group D (yes, one match only!) is played in Toronto.
Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.
First the win-probabilities in the qualification play-off paths:
path A SF Final Trinidad and Tobago 82,73 66,28 Guadeloupe 17,27 9,18 Guyana 73,99 20,34 Grenada 26,01 4,20 path B SF Final Martinique 92,21 67,77 St. Lucia 7,79 1,43 Suriname 85,27 28,59 Puerto Rico 14,73 2,21 path C SF Final Curacao 80,17 55,47 St. Kitts and Nevis 19,83 5,96 French Guyana 97,70 38,51 St. Maarten 2,30 0,06
The groups (with place holders for the three play-off winners) were drawn in April. The final tournament has a classic format with 4 groups of 4 teams. The numbers one and two from each group continue to the quarter finals.
Here are the group results with teams ordered by the last column which contains the average final group position of each team over all simulations, weighted by the qualification probability for the play-off participants:
group A 1st 2nd 3rd 4th avg USA 90,84 8,49 0,64 0,03 1,10 Jamaica 7,99 64,99 20,70 6,32 2,25 Curacao 0,56 11,09 25,30 18,52 3,11 French Guyana 0,27 5,74 17,44 15,06 3,23 St. Kitts and Nevis 0,01 0,50 2,49 2,96 3,41 Nicaragua 0,33 9,19 33,43 57,05 3,47 St. Maarten 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,06 4,00 group B 1st 2nd 3rd 4th avg Mexico 72,85 18,47 6,40 2,28 1,38 Qatar 10,78 30,54 32,31 26,37 2,74 Haiti 10,95 31,06 30,64 27,35 2,74 Honduras 5,42 19,93 30,65 44,00 3,13 group C 1st 2nd 3rd 4th avg Costa Rica 52,23 32,50 11,75 3,52 1,67 Panama 38,10 39,18 16,89 5,83 1,90 El Salvador 6,77 18,31 41,80 33,12 3,01 Martinique 2,35 7,80 21,57 36,05 3,35 Suriname 0,55 2,16 7,74 18,14 3,52 Puerto Rico 0,00 0,04 0,17 2,00 3,89 St. Lucia 0,00 0,01 0,08 1,34 3,93 group D 1st 2nd 3rd 4th avg Canada 83,11 13,74 2,59 0,56 1,21 Guatemala 11,46 46,96 27,12 14,46 2,45 Trinidad and Tobago 1,93 15,43 24,24 24,68 3,08 Cuba 3,32 20,36 36,55 39,77 3,13 Guyana 0,13 2,27 6,05 11,89 3,46 Guadeloupe 0,05 0,98 2,52 5,63 3,50 Grenada 0,00 0,26 0,93 3,01 3,65
The probabilities to qualify for the quarter finals:
team quarter final USA 99,33 Canada 96,85 Mexico 91,32 Costa Rica 84,73 Panama 77,28 Jamaica 72,98 Guatemala 58,42 Haiti 42,01 Qatar 41,32 Honduras 25,35 El Salvador 25,08 Cuba 23,68 Trinidad and Tobago 17,36 Curacao 11,65 Martinique 10,15 Nicaragua 9,52 French Guyana 6,01 Suriname 2,71 Guyana 2,40 Guadeloupe 1,03 St. Kitts and Nevis 0,51 Grenada 0,26 Puerto Rico 0,04 St. Lucia 0,01 St. Maarten 0,00
The probabilities to qualify for the semi finals. In square brackets this probability, given the team qualifies for the quarter finals:
team semi final USA 93,24 [93,87] Mexico 71,62 [78,43] Canada 68,26 [70,48] Costa Rica 51,11 [60,32] Panama 39,88 [51,60] Jamaica 22,96 [31,46] Qatar 12,46 [30,15] Haiti 12,37 [29,45] Guatemala 9,19 [15,73] Honduras 5,40 [21,30] El Salvador 5,25 [20,93] Curacao 1,67 [14,33] Martinique 1,59 [15,67] Cuba 1,57 [6,63] Trinidad and Tobago 1,47 [8,47] French Guyana 0,79 [13,14] Nicaragua 0,73 [7,67] Suriname 0,32 [11,81] Guyana 0,09 [3,75] Guadeloupe 0,02 [1,94] St. Kitts and Nevis 0,01 [1,96] Grenada 0,00 [0,00] Puerto Rico 0,00 [0,00] St. Lucia 0,00 [0,00] St. Maarten 0,00 [0,00]
The probabilities to qualify for the final. In square brackets this probability, given the team qualifies for the semi finals:
team final USA 77,46 [83,08] Mexico 46,91 [65,50] Canada 31,30 [45,85] Costa Rica 16,84 [32,95] Panama 12,24 [30,69] Jamaica 5,03 [21,91] Haiti 2,90 [23,44] Qatar 2,88 [23,11] Guatemala 1,83 [19,91] Honduras 0,80 [14,81] El Salvador 0,78 [14,86] Martinique 0,25 [15,72] Trinidad and Tobago 0,25 [17,01] Curacao 0,21 [12,57] Cuba 0,18 [11,46] Suriname 0,06 [18,75] French Guyana 0,05 [6,33] Nicaragua 0,03 [4,11] Guyana 0,00 [0,00] Guadeloupe 0,00 [0,00] St. Kitts and Nevis 0,00 [0,00] Grenada 0,00 [0,00] Puerto Rico 0,00 [0,00] St. Lucia 0,00 [0,00] St. Maarten 0,00 [0,00]
The probabilities to win the Gold Cup. In square brackets this probability, given the team qualifies for the final:
team champion USA 61,16 [78,96] Mexico 18,74 [39,95] Canada 8,53 [27,25] Costa Rica 5,79 [34,38] Panama 3,64 [29,74] Jamaica 0,68 [13,52] Haiti 0,52 [17,93] Qatar 0,42 [14,58] Guatemala 0,30 [16,39] Honduras 0,09 [11,25] El Salvador 0,07 [8,97] Martinique 0,04 [16,00] Trinidad and Tobago 0,01 [4,00] Suriname 0,01 [16,67] Curacao 0,00 [0,00] Cuba 0,00 [0,00] French Guyana 0,00 [0,00] Nicaragua 0,00 [0,00] Guyana 0,00 [0,00] Guadeloupe 0,00 [0,00] St. Kitts and Nevis 0,00 [0,00] Grenada 0,00 [0,00] Puerto Rico 0,00 [0,00] St. Lucia 0,00 [0,00] St. Maarten 0,00 [0,00]
It seems to become a very one-sided affair, this tournament in the USA.
Okay, a quick sidestep is appropriate, I think. Two Nations League Final Four tournaments for UEFA and CONCACAF are also to be played in the upcoming June-window in the Netherlands and the USA respectively.
The structure is for both tournaments the same: 2 semi final play-offs and a final and 3rd place play-off. All are one-off matches.
UEFA Nations League 2023 Final Four:
team SF Final 3rd place Netherlands 83,82 69,28 13,52 Croatia 16,18 9,76 48,45 Spain 64,10 13,55 12,57 Italy 35,90 7,41 25,46
CONCACAF Nations League 2023 Final Four:
team SF Final 3rd place USA 76,78 64,10 19,75 Mexico 23,22 17,31 58,77 Canada 69,78 13,87 7,58 Panama 30,22 4,72 13,90
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
Please post about AFC Asian cup 2023!
ReplyDeleteWhat's the hurry ? That tournament is only over half a year from now. Doesn't make much sense to me to already simulate while a lot of matches with top Asian teams involved are still to be played in the rest of this year.
DeleteWoof, that's a heavy favorite in the US! I have it not quite so lopsided, US at about 50% to win. Home field doing a lot of work in CONCACAF. Glad to have this Qatar business behind us after this tournament, they can go back to being an afterthought in football history.
ReplyDeleteAgreed. This is by far the highest tournament-win probability I've seen in 10 years of tournament simulations. Of course, home field advantage and the big differences in elo-ratings with all participating teams bar the other top-4 teams play a role in this, but I had at least expected Mexico to be more of a force here.
ReplyDeleteThe easy path in the knock-outs for the USA could also be part of the explanation: as group A winner in the quarters against D2 (Guatemala/Cuba) and in the semis the winner of C1 (Costa Rica/Panama) and B2 (Haiti/Qatar), avoiding Mexico and Canada until the final.
what about caf world cup qualification expected ranking
ReplyDeleteDraw for CAF World Cup qualification is scheduled for July 12th. The FIFA July ranking is published on July 20th. So, the draw will be delayed (so the July ranking can be used) or will use the already known FIFA April ranking.
ReplyDeleteI will publish the preview of the July ranking somewhere in the coming week.
I know not a big deal for you, but can do the same for Saff Championship
ReplyDeleteActually, I had simulations of this tournament:
ReplyDeleteProbabilities (in %) for the South Asian Championship 2023.
Groups:
group A - 1st - 2nd - 3rd - 4th
Kuwait - 50,68 - 45,64 - 3,46 - 0,22
India - 48,21 - 46,80 - 4,43 - 0,56
Nepal - 0,87 - 5,12 - 55,23 - 38,78
Pakistan - 0,24 - 2,44 - 36,88 - 60,44
group B - 1st - 2nd - 3rd - 4th
Lebanon - 93,75 - 5,80 - 0,42 - 0,03
Maldives - 4,82 - 58,97 - 31,65 - 4,56
Bangladesh - 1,38 - 32,78 - 54,90 - 10,94
Bhutan - 0,05 - 2,45 - 13,03 - 84,47
Knock-out stage (2 semi finals A1-B2 and B1-A2 and a final):
team - F-win - F-loss - SF-win - SF-loss
India - 39,87 - 31,85 - 71,72 - 23,29
Kuwait - 38,72 - 34,76 - 73,48 - 22,84
Lebanon - 21,00 - 28,44 - 49,44 - 50,11
Maldives - 0,26 - 3,09 - 3,35 - 60,44
Nepal - 0,08 - 0,93 - 1,01 - 4,98
Bangladesh - 0,04 - 0,74 - 0,78 - 33,38
Pakistan - 0,03 - 0,18 - 0,21 - 2,47
Bhutan - 0,00 - 0,01 - 0,01 - 2,49
And as an extra also the probabilities (in %) for the inaugural Central Asian Nations Cup 2023.
Groups:
group A - 1st - 2nd - 3rd - 4th
Uzbekistan - 66,90 - 26,06 - 5,81 - 1,23
Oman - 29,53 - 56,28 - 11,66 - 2,53
Tajikistan - 2,52 - 11,57 - 55,07 - 30,84
Turkmenistan - 1,05 - 6,09 - 27,46 - 65,40
group B - 1st - 2nd - 3rd
Iran - 93,83 - 6,03 - 0,14
Kyrgyzstan - 5,88 - 68,07 - 26,05
Afghanistan - 0,29 - 25,90 - 73,81
Knock-out stage (final A1-B1 and 3rd place play-off A2-B2):
team - 1st - 2nd - 3rd - 4th
Iran - 66,28 - 27,55 - 4,73 - 1,30
Uzbekistan - 25,43 - 41,47 - 24,07 - 1,99
Oman - 7,72 - 21,81 - 51,14 - 5,14
Kyrgyzstan - 0,39 - 5,49 - 6,71 - 61,36
Tajikistan - 0,15 - 2,37 - 8,55 - 3,02
Turkmenistan - 0,03 - 1,02 - 3,85 - 2,24
Afghanistan - 0,00 - 0,29 - 0,95 - 24,95
Thanks buddy
DeleteHaving seen the rosters released for this tournament it'll be interesting to measure projected elo performance vs real results, given that at least the USA and Canada clearly aren't sending their A-Teams to the Gold Cup. That being said maybe those rosters are still good enough to dominate anyway
ReplyDelete