CONCACAF Gold Cup 2023 10.000 simulations

This Summer the only continental showdown to be played is the Gold Cup 2023. From the Nations League 2023 group stage 12 teams have qualified and Qatar is once again the strange guest, or should I say well-rewarded sponsor? The last three participants are determined in three paths of one-off play-off matches (two semi finals and a final) to be played one week before the main tournament starts.

The USA is once again the host, although the first match of Canada in group D (yes, one match only!) is played in Toronto.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. 

First the win-probabilities in the qualification play-off paths:

path A	SF		Final
Trinidad and Tobago	82,73		66,28
Guadeloupe	17,27		9,18
Guyana	73,99		20,34
Grenada	26,01		4,20
path B	SF		Final
Martinique	92,21		67,77
St. Lucia	7,79		1,43
Suriname	85,27		28,59
Puerto Rico	14,73		2,21
path C	SF		Final
Curacao	80,17		55,47
St. Kitts and Nevis	19,83		5,96
French Guyana	97,70		38,51
St. Maarten	2,30		0,06

The groups (with place holders for the three play-off winners) were drawn in April. The final tournament has a classic format with 4 groups of 4 teams. The numbers one and two from each group continue to the quarter finals.

Here are the group results with teams ordered by the last column which contains the average final group position of each team over all simulations, weighted by the qualification probability for the play-off participants:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th		avg
USA	90,84	8,49	0,64	0,03		1,10
Jamaica	7,99	64,99	20,70	6,32		2,25
Curacao	0,56	11,09	25,30	18,52		3,11
French Guyana	0,27	5,74	17,44	15,06		3,23
St. Kitts and Nevis	0,01	0,50	2,49	2,96		3,41
Nicaragua	0,33	9,19	33,43	57,05		3,47
St. Maarten	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,06		4,00
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th		avg
Mexico	72,85	18,47	6,40	2,28		1,38
Qatar	10,78	30,54	32,31	26,37		2,74
Haiti	10,95	31,06	30,64	27,35		2,74
Honduras	5,42	19,93	30,65	44,00		3,13
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th		avg
Costa Rica	52,23	32,50	11,75	3,52		1,67
Panama	38,10	39,18	16,89	5,83		1,90
El Salvador	6,77	18,31	41,80	33,12		3,01
Martinique	2,35	7,80	21,57	36,05		3,35
Suriname	0,55	2,16	7,74	18,14		3,52
Puerto Rico	0,00	0,04	0,17	2,00		3,89
St. Lucia	0,00	0,01	0,08	1,34		3,93
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th		avg
Canada	83,11	13,74	2,59	0,56		1,21
Guatemala	11,46	46,96	27,12	14,46		2,45
Trinidad and Tobago	1,93	15,43	24,24	24,68		3,08
Cuba	3,32	20,36	36,55	39,77		3,13
Guyana	0,13	2,27	6,05	11,89		3,46
Guadeloupe	0,05	0,98	2,52	5,63		3,50
Grenada	0,00	0,26	0,93	3,01		3,65

The probabilities to qualify for the quarter finals:

team	quarter final
USA	99,33
Canada	96,85
Mexico	91,32
Costa Rica	84,73
Panama	77,28
Jamaica	72,98
Guatemala	58,42
Haiti	42,01
Qatar	41,32
Honduras	25,35
El Salvador	25,08
Cuba	23,68
Trinidad and Tobago	17,36
Curacao	11,65
Martinique	10,15
Nicaragua	9,52
French Guyana	6,01
Suriname	2,71
Guyana	2,40
Guadeloupe	1,03
St. Kitts and Nevis	0,51
Grenada	0,26
Puerto Rico	0,04
St. Lucia	0,01
St. Maarten	0,00

The probabilities to qualify for the semi finals. In square brackets this probability, given the team qualifies for the quarter finals:

team	semi final
USA	93,24		[93,87]
Mexico	71,62		[78,43]
Canada	68,26		[70,48]
Costa Rica	51,11		[60,32]
Panama	39,88		[51,60]
Jamaica	22,96		[31,46]
Qatar	12,46		[30,15]
Haiti	12,37		[29,45]
Guatemala	9,19		[15,73]
Honduras	5,40		[21,30]
El Salvador	5,25		[20,93]
Curacao	1,67		[14,33]
Martinique	1,59		[15,67]
Cuba	1,57		[6,63]
Trinidad and Tobago	1,47		[8,47]
French Guyana	0,79		[13,14]
Nicaragua	0,73		[7,67]
Suriname	0,32		[11,81]
Guyana	0,09		[3,75]
Guadeloupe	0,02		[1,94]
St. Kitts and Nevis	0,01		[1,96]
Grenada	0,00		[0,00]
Puerto Rico	0,00		[0,00]
St. Lucia	0,00		[0,00]
St. Maarten	0,00		[0,00]

The probabilities to qualify for the final. In square brackets this probability, given the team qualifies for the semi finals:

team	final
USA	77,46		[83,08]
Mexico	46,91		[65,50]
Canada	31,30		[45,85]
Costa Rica	16,84		[32,95]
Panama	12,24		[30,69]
Jamaica	5,03		[21,91]
Haiti	2,90		[23,44]
Qatar	2,88		[23,11]
Guatemala	1,83		[19,91]
Honduras	0,80		[14,81]
El Salvador	0,78		[14,86]
Martinique	0,25		[15,72]
Trinidad and Tobago	0,25		[17,01]
Curacao	0,21		[12,57]
Cuba	0,18		[11,46]
Suriname	0,06		[18,75]
French Guyana	0,05		[6,33]
Nicaragua	0,03		[4,11]
Guyana	0,00		[0,00]
Guadeloupe	0,00		[0,00]
St. Kitts and Nevis	0,00		[0,00]
Grenada	0,00		[0,00]
Puerto Rico	0,00		[0,00]
St. Lucia	0,00		[0,00]
St. Maarten	0,00		[0,00]

The probabilities to win the Gold Cup. In square brackets this probability, given the team qualifies for the final:

team	champion
USA	61,16		[78,96]
Mexico	18,74		[39,95]
Canada	8,53		[27,25]
Costa Rica	5,79		[34,38]
Panama	3,64		[29,74]
Jamaica	0,68		[13,52]
Haiti	0,52		[17,93]
Qatar	0,42		[14,58]
Guatemala	0,30		[16,39]
Honduras	0,09		[11,25]
El Salvador	0,07		[8,97]
Martinique	0,04		[16,00]
Trinidad and Tobago	0,01		[4,00]
Suriname	0,01		[16,67]
Curacao	0,00		[0,00]
Cuba	0,00		[0,00]
French Guyana	0,00		[0,00]
Nicaragua	0,00		[0,00]
Guyana	0,00		[0,00]
Guadeloupe	0,00		[0,00]
St. Kitts and Nevis	0,00		[0,00]
Grenada	0,00		[0,00]
Puerto Rico	0,00		[0,00]
St. Lucia	0,00		[0,00]
St. Maarten	0,00		[0,00]

It seems to become a very one-sided affair, this tournament in the USA.

Okay, a quick sidestep is appropriate, I think. Two Nations League Final Four tournaments for UEFA and CONCACAF are also to be played in the upcoming June-window in the Netherlands and the USA respectively.

The structure is for both tournaments the same: 2 semi final play-offs and a final and 3rd place play-off. All are one-off matches.

UEFA Nations League 2023 Final Four:

team	SF		Final		3rd place
Netherlands	83,82		69,28		13,52
Croatia	16,18		9,76		48,45
Spain	64,10		13,55		12,57
Italy	35,90		7,41		25,46

CONCACAF Nations League 2023 Final Four:

team	SF		Final		3rd place
USA	76,78		64,10		19,75
Mexico	23,22		17,31		58,77
Canada	69,78		13,87		7,58
Panama	30,22		4,72		13,90

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About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.