Qualification World Cup 2026 10.000 simulations (August 2023)

The qualification tournaments for the World Cup 2026 start this September window in South America, in October in Asia and in November in Africa. Next year's March sees the first qualification matches in CONCACAF while UEFA only starts in March 2025. For OFC the qualification format and schedule is unknown yet.

The World Cup 2026 in USA, Mexico and Canada has been expanded from 32 to 48 berths. Here is the distribution of berths amongst the confederations:

	direct slots			play-off slots
Confederation	2026	2022	growth	2026	2022
AFC	8	5	60%	1	1
CAF	9	5	80%	1	0
CONCACAF	6	3	100%	2	1
CONMEBOL	6	4	50%	1	1
OFC	1	0	-	1	1
UEFA	16	13	23%	0	0
total	46	30	53%	6	4

In 2022 host Qatar was added to the initial 4 berths for Asia. Now in 2026 the host-berth(s) are subtracted from the initial quotum. FIFA decided already that all 3 CONCACAF-hosts are automatically qualified.

You can see that all confederations except UEFA have been awarded significantly more berths. OFC now even has a guaranteed spot. The interconfederational play-offs (IPO) to determine the last two berths are also expanded from 4 teams (in 2 home-and-away play-offs) to 6 teams in two play-off paths. As a rule all confederations (once again, except UEFA) have one berth in the new IPO, plus an extra spot for the host confederation. 

The two highest ranked teams from those 6 are seeded to each path-final and the other 4 teams play semi-finals. All 4 matches in the IPO are now one-off play-offs instead of home-and-away matches. The IPO is played in March 2026.

I can conclude that UEFA has negotiated without any noticeable backbone in this process. Although UEFA has always been the strongest confederation overall in the World Cup with 55% champions (CONMEBOL the other 45%) and an immense 68% of all available quarter final places or better (CONMEBOL 24%, CONCACAF 4%, CAF 2%, AFC 1% and OFC 0%), their growth in berths is limited to only 23%. Also their complete absence in the IPO's is a very weak result for UEFA. 

FIFA definitely wants this to be a real World Cup and not necessarily the best World Cup. You can fill in the consequences, I guess. At the top of that list for FIFA: more income from TV-rights because of more matches (now 104 instead of 64) and more participants from emerging countries with vast TV audiences. They target an 11 billion dollar revenue in 2026, compared to a realized 7.5 billion dollar in Qatar. Mission accomplished, I would say.

Anyway, let's focus on football.

In South America the same qualification format is used once again: one group of all 10 CONMEBOL teams and each team plays a double round-robin against every other team for a total of 18 match days with 5 matches each. The top 6 now qualifies directly while number 7 in the final group standing qualifies for the IPO. The match schedule is published.

In Asia a new format is designed in 5 stages:

1. 10 home-and-away play-offs between the 20 lowest ranked teams;
2. a group stage consisting of the 26 teams with a bye plus the 10 first stage winners. They will play in 9 groups of 4 teams with the top 2 in each group qualifying for stage 3. The double round-robin format leads to 6 match days with 18 matches each;
3. another group stage with 3 groups of 6 teams with the top 2 qualifying for the World Cup. The double round-robin format leads to 10 match days with 9 matches each. To determine the IPO-spot two more stages follow:
4. another group stage with the group numbers 3 and 4 from stage 3 for a total of 6 teams. They will play double round-robin in 2 groups of 3 teams for a total of 6 match days with 2 matches each;
5. the winners of the two stage 4 groups play in a home-and-away play-off for the IPO-spot.

The match schedules for stages 1 and 2 were published shortly after the draw for these stages was conducted on July 27th. The seeding of all 46 Asian participating teams for this draw was based on the July 2023 FIFA ranking.

In Africa also a new format is designed and it is as brutal as ever: 9 groups of 6 teams in a double round robin format for in total 10 match days of 27 matches each. Only each group winner qualifies directly for the World Cup. The IPO-spot is contested between the 4 best group runners-up in two semi finals and a final, all one-off play-offs. 

The composition of the groups was drawn on July 13th with seeding of all 54 African participating teams according to the intermediate June 2023 FIFA ranking. The match schedule of the groups is not yet published anyhow, so CAF qualification can't be simulated yet.

In North and Central America and the Caribbean the following format was approved:

1. 2 home-and-away play-offs between the 4 lowest ranked teams, based on the November 2023 FIFA ranking;
2. a group stage with the 28 teams with a bye plus 2 first stage winners. They will play in 6 groups of 5 teams with the top 2 in each group qualifying for stage 3. The chosen single round-robin format leads to 4 match days with 12 matches each;
3. another group stage with 3 groups of 4 teams with the three group winners qualifying for the World Cup. The double round-robin format leads to 6 match days with 6 matches each. The 2 best group runners-up qualify for the IPO.

The draw for stages 1 and 2 will probably be staged in December 2023, after the upcoming CONCACAF Nations League group stage (plus new quarter finals in league A) which concludes in November.

In Europe the format is continued from last World Cup qualifications: a group stage and subsequently a play-off stage. The group stage will this time consist of 6 groups of 4 teams and 6 groups of 5 teams each. The double round-robin format leads (aggregated) to 16 match days with 12 matches each. Only the 12 group winners qualify directly for the World Cup. The play-off stage consists of 4 play-off paths with 4 teams each, played in one-off semi finals and final, with the 4 path winners to qualify for the World Cup. The 16 play-off participants are the 12 group runners-up plus the 4 best UEFA Nations League 2024 group winners, not qualified already.

The draw for the groups will probably be staged in December 2024.

Total number of scheduled qualification matches is 891 while the OFC format is still unknown:

CONMEBOL 90

AFC 20 + 108 + 90 + 12 + 2 = 232

CAF 270 + 3 = 273

CONCACAF 4 + 48 + 36 = 88

UEFA 192 + 12 = 204

OFC unknown

IPO 4

I've simulated the complete qualification for CONMEBOL and stages 1 and 2 for AFC. 

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

First, the South American group results with teams ordered by average group position (in the last column). I've included the 3 points initial penalty for Ecuador (thanks for the reminder, Anon):

team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	avg
Argentina	53,90	28,85	10,77	4,21	1,54	0,52	0,13	0,06	0,01	0,01	1,73
Brazil	33,38	35,72	16,49	8,03	4,09	1,39	0,61	0,21	0,07	0,01	2,22
Colombia	6,38	15,07	26,07	20,10	14,32	9,04	4,83	2,54	1,26	0,39	3,90
Uruguay	4,12	11,30	20,46	22,40	16,39	11,59	6,93	4,31	1,71	0,79	4,35
Peru	1,37	4,78	11,27	16,34	18,39	16,66	13,35	8,94	5,90	3,00	5,50
Ecuador	0,54	2,43	7,94	12,76	16,81	17,01	15,77	12,11	8,96	5,67	6,11
Paraguay	0,13	0,61	2,79	5,59	9,43	13,42	16,59	19,65	17,76	14,03	7,33
Chile	0,06	0,69	2,00	4,96	8,35	12,47	16,61	18,40	19,99	16,47	7,52
Venezuela	0,12	0,45	1,88	4,25	7,81	12,31	15,52	19,23	20,33	18,10	7,63
Bolivia	0,00	0,10	0,33	1,36	2,87	5,59	9,66	14,55	24,01	41,53	8,70

Probabilities for direct qualification (nrs 1 to 6) and for the IPO (nr 7) are:

team	direct Q	IPO
Argentina	99,79	0,13
Brazil	99,10	0,61
Colombia	90,98	4,83
Uruguay	86,26	6,93
Peru	68,81	13,35
Ecuador	57,49	15,77
Paraguay	31,97	16,59
Chile	28,53	16,61
Venezuela	26,82	15,52
Bolivia	10,25	9,66

Then Asia. For the first stage, consisting of 10 home-and-away play-offs, the win probabilities are:

AFC stage 1	Pwin
Afghanistan	89,69
Mongolia	10,31
Myanmar	86,63
Macau	13,37
Singapore	97,07
Guam	2,93
Chinese Taipei	91,40
Timor-Leste	8,60
Hong Kong	99,10
Bhutan	0,90
Indonesia	99,20
Brunei Darussalam	0,80
Cambodia	64,01
Pakistan	35,99
Nepal	89,43
Laos	10,57
Yemen	96,98
Sri Lanka	3,02
Maldives	57,06
Bangladesh	42,94

Stage 2 Asian group results with teams ordered by group position probabilities:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Qatar	67,45	24,43	7,41	0,71
Kuwait	24,32	46,76	23,56	5,36
India	7,52	24,54	51,42	16,52
Afghanistan	0,71	4,26	17,21	67,51
Mongolia	0,00	0,01	0,40	9,90
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Japan	95,81	3,75	0,43	0,01
Syria	2,58	54,02	42,21	1,19
Korea DPR	1,61	42,02	54,50	1,87
Myanmar	0,00	0,20	2,77	83,66
Macau	0,00	0,01	0,09	13,27
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Korea Republic	86,32	11,87	1,76	0,05
China PR	10,38	56,03	28,82	4,77
Thailand	3,18	28,91	54,01	13,90
Singapore	0,12	3,19	15,39	78,37
Guam	0,00	0,00	0,02	2,91
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Oman	85,83	12,00	2,10	0,07
Malaysia	8,75	51,42	34,98	4,85
Kyrgyzstan	5,34	34,71	51,97	7,98
Chinese Taipei	0,08	1,87	10,89	78,56
Timor-Leste	0,00	0,00	0,06	8,54
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Iran	79,62	19,97	0,41	0,00
Uzbekistan	20,11	74,06	5,35	0,48
Turkmenistan	0,22	4,71	65,32	29,75
Hong Kong	0,05	1,26	28,92	68,87
Bhutan	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,90
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Iraq	80,68	16,08	3,09	0,15
Vietnam	14,95	55,33	26,15	3,57
Indonesia	4,24	26,33	56,78	11,85
Philippines	0,13	2,26	13,95	83,66
Brunei Darussalam	0,00	0,00	0,03	0,77
group G	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Jordan	51,70	38,80	9,48	0,02
Saudi Arabia	43,73	44,84	11,34	0,09
Tajikistan	4,57	16,31	76,92	2,20
Cambodia	0,00	0,05	1,65	62,31
Pakistan	0,00	0,00	0,61	35,38
group H	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Bahrain	59,08	38,09	2,68	0,15
United Arab Emirates	39,97	54,99	4,71	0,33
Yemen	0,90	6,08	69,04	20,96
Nepal	0,05	0,82	22,31	66,25
Sri Lanka	0,00	0,02	0,67	2,33
Laos	0,00	0,00	0,59	9,98
group I	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Australia	91,76	7,61	0,63	0,00
Palestine	6,73	64,47	27,81	0,99
Lebanon	1,51	27,40	66,40	4,69
Bangladesh	0,00	0,27	2,37	40,30
Maldives	0,00	0,25	2,79	54,02

Probabilities to qualify for stage 3 (as number 1 or 2 from the 9 groups):

team	Q stage 3
Iran	99,59
Japan	99,56
Australia	99,37
Korea Republic	98,19
Oman	97,83
Bahrain	97,17
Iraq	96,76
United Arab Emirates	94,96
Uzbekistan	94,17
Qatar	91,88
Jordan	90,50
Saudi Arabia	88,57
Palestine	71,20
Kuwait	71,08
Vietnam	70,28
China PR	66,41
Malaysia	60,17
Syria	56,60
Korea DPR	43,63
Kyrgyzstan	40,05
Thailand	32,09
India	32,06
Indonesia	30,57
Lebanon	28,91
Tajikistan	20,88
Yemen	6,98
Afghanistan	4,97
Turkmenistan	4,93
Singapore	3,31
Philippines	2,39
Chinese Taipei	1,95
Hong Kong	1,31
Nepal	0,87
Bangladesh	0,27
Maldives	0,25
Myanmar	0,20
Cambodia	0,05
Sri Lanka	0,02
Macau	0,01
Mongolia	0,01
Bhutan	0,00
Brunei Darussalam	0,00
Guam	0,00
Laos	0,00
Pakistan	0,00
Timor-Leste	0,00

The probable pots for the stage 3 group draw (3 groups of 6 teams). The teams are ordered by their average pot, weighed with the probability to qualify for stage 3:

team	pot 1	pot 2	pot 3	pot 4	pot 5	pot 6
Japan	99,53	0,03	0	0	0	0
Iran	91,25	8,34	0	0	0	0
Australia	61,43	37,94	0	0	0	0
---------------------------
Korea Republic	47,74	50,45	0	0	0	0
Saudi Arabia	0,04	88,11	0,42	0	0	0
Qatar	0,01	82,99	8,82	0,06	0	0
---------------------------
Iraq	0	16,74	73,19	6,78	0,05	0
Oman	0	8,44	74,47	14,78	0,14	0
Uzbekistan	0	3,64	57,24	32,75	0,54	0
---------------------------
United Arab Emirates	0	2,99	53,42	36,70	1,85	0
Bahrain	0	0,01	6,02	67,77	23,35	0,02
Jordan	0	0,16	15,95	67,08	7,31	0
---------------------------
China PR	0	0,16	10,42	48,52	7,31	0
Palestine	0	0	0,02	6,69	57,93	6,56
Vietnam	0	0	0,02	8,45	54,61	7,20
---------------------------
Kuwait	0	0	0	0	2,02	69,06
Syria	0	0	0,01	7,13	46,26	3,20
Malaysia	0	0	0	0	1,08	59,09
---------------------------
Korea DPR	0	0	0	0,12	15,38	28,13
Kyrgyzstan	0	0	0	1,39	23,62	15,04
India	0	0	0	0,62	14,90	16,54
Thailand	0	0	0	0,13	12,12	19,84
Lebanon	0	0	0	0,80	19,90	8,21
Indonesia	0	0	0	0	0,31	30,26
Tajikistan	0	0	0	0,23	10,99	9,66
Yemen	0	0	0	0	0	6,98
Turkmenistan	0	0	0	0	0,27	4,66
Afghanistan	0	0	0	0	0	4,97
Singapore	0	0	0	0	0	3,31
Philippines	0	0	0	0	0,05	2,34
Chinese Taipei	0	0	0	0	0	1,95
Hong Kong	0	0	0	0	0,01	1,30
Nepal	0	0	0	0	0	0,87
Bangladesh	0	0	0	0	0	0,27
Maldives	0	0	0	0	0	0,25
Myanmar	0	0	0	0	0	0,20
Cambodia	0	0	0	0	0	0,05
Sri Lanka	0	0	0	0	0	0,02
Macau	0	0	0	0	0	0,01
Mongolia	0	0	0	0	0	0,01
Bhutan	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brunei Darussalam	0	0	0	0	0	0
Guam	0	0	0	0	0	0
Laos	0	0	0	0	0	0
Pakistan	0	0	0	0	0	0
Timor-Leste	0	0	0	0	0	0

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About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.