CAF qualification World Cup 2026: 10.000 simulations (September 2023)

The match schedule for the group stage matches in African qualification for the World Cup 2026 is finally released, so now I'm able to simulate the process. The format is very simple: all 54 African teams are divided in 9 groups of 6 teams and the 9 group winners qualify for the World Cup.

The 4 best ranked group runners-up will qualify for a play-off, consisting of two one-off semi finals and a one-off final to determine the CAF representation in the IPO. The seeding for this play-off is unknown yet. It could be a completely free draw, or seeding according to the prevailing FIFA ranking or to the ranking of the 4 participants based on group results and then 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3.

This play-off will be played anyway in November 2025.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

The group results with teams ordered by average group position, indicated in the last avg column:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Egypt	67,16	23,31	7,10	1,95	0,48	0,00	1,45
Burkina Faso	25,29	45,88	18,16	8,01	2,62	0,04	2,17
Guinea-Bissau	4,54	16,22	33,84	27,03	17,60	0,77	3,39
Sierra Leone	1,59	7,37	21,23	31,63	36,36	1,82	3,99
Ethiopia	1,42	7,22	19,60	30,86	38,38	2,52	4,05
Djibouti	0,00	0,00	0,07	0,52	4,56	94,85	5,94
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Senegal	85,61	11,76	2,13	0,41	0,09	0,00	1,18
Congo DR	10,08	49,97	23,97	10,77	4,49	0,72	2,52
Mauritania	2,60	19,35	31,48	26,34	15,56	4,67	3,47
Togo	1,25	12,59	24,79	30,60	23,22	7,55	3,85
Sudan	0,45	5,82	15,25	25,13	36,27	17,08	4,42
South Sudan	0,01	0,51	2,38	6,75	20,37	69,98	5,57
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Nigeria	61,67	25,27	8,72	3,25	0,89	0,20	1,57
South Africa	26,88	39,42	19,89	8,77	3,82	1,22	2,27
Benin	7,06	18,41	29,77	23,13	14,37	7,26	3,41
Zimbabwe	2,91	9,42	20,90	27,16	23,40	16,21	4,07
Rwanda	0,92	4,64	12,32	20,40	29,45	32,27	4,70
Lesotho	0,56	2,84	8,40	17,29	28,07	42,84	4,98
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Cameroon	62,72	25,05	8,78	2,69	0,73	0,03	1,54
Cape Verde Islands	24,85	38,95	21,80	10,17	4,11	0,12	2,30
Angola	7,50	19,10	32,40	25,18	14,62	1,20	3,24
Libya	3,22	10,63	22,10	32,38	28,54	3,13	3,82
Eswatini	1,71	6,23	14,74	27,78	42,52	7,02	4,24
Mauritius	0,00	0,04	0,18	1,80	9,48	88,50	5,86
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Morocco	93,89	5,79	0,30	0,02	0,00	0,00	1,06
Zambia	5,60	68,47	17,10	6,06	2,20	0,57	2,33
Tanzania	0,33	12,94	34,85	26,25	17,12	8,51	3,72
Congo	0,06	6,68	23,92	27,40	25,12	16,82	4,21
Niger	0,11	4,74	17,14	24,81	28,58	24,62	4,51
Eritrea	0,01	1,38	6,69	15,46	26,98	49,48	5,16
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Cote d'Ivoire	67,46	20,03	8,51	3,20	0,80	0,00	1,50
Gambia	14,39	30,19	27,33	18,18	9,78	0,13	2,79
Gabon	11,53	29,05	27,51	19,95	11,74	0,22	2,92
Kenya	4,72	13,84	21,96	31,34	27,21	0,93	3,65
Burundi	1,90	6,89	14,66	27,02	46,93	2,60	4,18
Seychelles	0,00	0,00	0,03	0,31	3,54	96,12	5,96
group G	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Algeria	84,05	11,95	2,91	0,89	0,20	0,00	1,21
Guinea	6,35	31,59	26,67	20,35	14,64	0,40	3,07
Uganda	4,31	22,67	25,66	25,02	21,43	0,91	3,39
Botswana	3,15	19,17	24,06	25,67	26,80	1,15	3,57
Mozambique	2,14	14,59	20,66	27,69	33,38	1,54	3,80
Somalia	0,00	0,03	0,04	0,38	3,55	96,00	5,95
group H	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Tunisia	82,75	13,75	2,70	0,65	0,14	0,01	1,22
Equatorial Guinea	11,90	46,23	23,20	12,42	5,58	0,67	2,56
Namibia	2,81	17,66	29,02	26,36	19,29	4,86	3,56
Malawi	1,29	11,93	23,08	28,69	27,48	7,53	3,92
Liberia	1,23	10,15	20,66	27,08	31,58	9,30	4,06
Sao Tomé e Príncipe	0,02	0,28	1,34	4,80	15,93	77,63	5,69
group I	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Mali	54,07	35,66	7,72	1,95	0,50	0,10	1,59
Ghana	41,28	44,03	10,67	3,03	0,79	0,20	1,79
Central African Republic	2,68	10,21	33,91	25,56	17,65	9,99	3,75
Madagascar	1,00	4,70	21,25	26,91	25,65	20,49	4,33
Comoros	0,66	3,72	16,00	23,80	27,67	28,15	4,59
Chad	0,31	1,68	10,45	18,75	27,74	41,07	4,95

For 4 groups the top seed is also the clear cut favorite. However, in groups A, C, D and F the second seed could spring a surprise if the top seed is not well prepared from the start of the group matches in November this year. In group I both top seeds, Mali and Ghana, seem of almost equal strength and the heaviest fight for the top spot can be expected.

The probabilities to qualify for the play-offs as one of the 4 best group runners-up, with in square brackets the probability to qualify for the play-off, given that the team is a group runner-up:

Zambia	33,67	[49,17]
Burkina Faso	27,48	[59,90]
Ghana	24,74	[56,19]
Congo DR	21,89	[43,81]
Cape Verde Islands	20,56	[52,79]
Mali	20,48	[57,43]
Equatorial Guinea	20,33	[43,98]
Egypt	16,41	[70,40]
Cameroon	15,53	[62,00]
South Africa	15,42	[39,12]
Gambia	14,68	[48,63]
Gabon	13,72	[47,23]
Guinea	12,98	[41,09]
Cote d'Ivoire	12,25	[61,16]
Nigeria	11,53	[45,63]
Tunisia	8,58	[62,40]
Uganda	8,57	[37,80]
Angola	8,04	[42,09]
Senegal	7,89	[67,09]
Algeria	7,68	[64,27]
Guinea-Bissau	7,21	[44,45]
Botswana	6,17	[32,19]
Mauritania	5,96	[30,80]
Namibia	5,28	[29,90]
Morocco	5,17	[89,29]
Benin	4,85	[26,34]
Kenya	4,81	[34,75]
Mozambique	4,36	[29,88]
Libya	3,58	[33,68]
Malawi	3,10	[25,98]
Central African Republic	3,04	[29,77]
Tanzania	2,92	[22,57]
Togo	2,83	[22,48]
Ethiopia	2,53	[35,04]
Sierra Leone	2,31	[31,34]
Liberia	2,27	[22,36]
Burundi	1,83	[26,56]
Zimbabwe	1,79	[19,00]
Eswatini	1,60	[25,68]
Congo	1,22	[18,26]
Madagascar	1,11	[23,62]
Sudan	1,04	[17,87]
Comoros	0,77	[20,70]
Niger	0,66	[13,92]
Rwanda	0,54	[11,64]
Lesotho	0,27	[9,51]
Chad	0,21	[12,50]
Eritrea	0,09	[6,52]
South Sudan	0,04	[7,84]
Sao Tomé e Príncipe	0,01	[3,57]
Djibouti	0,00	[0,00]
Mauritius	0,00	[0,00]
Seychelles	0,00	[0,00]
Somalia	0,00	[0,00]

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About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.