2024 UEFA EURO qualification: 10.000 simulations (October 2023)

Last week the match days seven and eight of qualification for EURO 2024 have been played. See here for all the details of the qualification process and the simulation results before the groups started. See for previous simulation results: after MD2, after MD4 and after MD6.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The complete remaining match schedule for UEFA teams is simulated, including currently scheduled friendlies in 2023.

First the group results with teams ordered by average group position (in the last column):

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th		avg
Spain	92.62	7.38	0	0	0		1.07
Scotland	7.38	92.62	0	0	0		1.93
Norway	0	0	97.25	2.75	0		3.03
Georgia	0	0	2.75	97.25	0		3.97
Cyprus	0	0	0	0	100.00		5.00
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th		avg
France	100.00	0	0	0	0		1.00
Netherlands	0	99.93	0.07	0	0		2.00
Greece	0	0.07	99.93	0	0		3.00
Republic of Ireland	0	0	0	100.00	0		4.00
Gibraltar	0	0	0	0	100.00		5.00
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th		avg
England	100.00	0	0	0	0		1.00
Italy	0	70.23	28.56	1.21	0		2.31
Ukraine	0	29.77	70.23	0	0		2.70
North Macedonia	0	0	1.21	98.79	0		3.99
Malta	0	0	0	0	100.00		5.00
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th		avg
Turkey	62.59	37.41	0	0	0		1.37
Croatia	17.60	51.62	30.55	0.23	0		2.13
Wales	19.81	10.48	60.87	8.84	0		2.59
Armenia	0	0.49	8.58	90.93	0		3.90
Latvia	0	0	0	0	100.00		5.00
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th		avg
Albania	94.10	5.89	0.01	0	0		1.06
Czech Republic	5.80	88.60	3.64	1.96	0		2.02
Poland	0	3.12	79.10	17.78	0		3.15
Moldova	0.10	2.39	17.25	80.26	0		3.78
Faroe Islands	0	0	0	0	100.00		5.00
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th		avg
Belgium	97.33	2.67	0	0	0		1.03
Austria	2.67	97.33	0	0	0		1.97
Sweden	0	0	99.60	0.40	0		3.00
Azerbaijan	0	0	0.40	98.16	1.44		4.01
Estonia	0	0	0	1.44	98.56		4.99
group G	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th		avg
Hungary	96.50	3.00	0.50	0	0		1.04
Serbia	3.46	96.45	0.09	0	0		1.97
Montenegro	0.04	0.55	90.76	8.65	0		3.08
Lithuania	0	0	8.65	90.93	0.42		3.92
Bulgaria	0	0	0	0.42	99.58		5.00
group H	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Denmark	76.70	22.85	0.45	0	0	0	1.24
Slovenia	23.13	69.98	6.89	0	0	0	1.84
Kazakhstan	0.17	7.17	91.87	0.79	0	0	2.93
Finland	0	0	0.79	99.16	0.05	0	3.99
Northern Ireland	0	0	0	0.05	99.95	0	5.00
San Marino	0	0	0	0	0	100.00	6.00
group I	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Switzerland	75.24	18.24	6.35	0.17	0	0	1.31
Romania	14.98	42.88	42.14	0	0	0	2.27
Israel	9.78	38.78	47.46	3.97	0.01	0	2.46
Kosovo	0	0.10	3.95	65.41	30.53	0.01	4.26
Belarus	0	0	0.10	30.45	68.18	1.27	4.71
Andorra	0	0	0	0	1.28	98.72	5.99
group J	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Portugal	100.00	0	0	0	0	0	1.00
Slovakia	0	97.94	2.05	0.01	0	0	2.02
Luxembourg	0	2.06	82.35	14.68	0.91	0	3.14
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0	0	15.08	57.04	27.88	0	4.13
Iceland	0	0	0.52	28.27	71.21	0	4.71
Liechtenstein	0	0	0	0	0	100.00	6.00

In group A Spain has won the return direct encounter against Scotland and are leading the group by overall goal difference now. Both teams are qualified for the EURO's. Georgia has qualified for play-off path C.

The Netherlands got the expected loss against France (although with football that gives some hope for the future), but more important the hard-fought win in Athens against Greece. They could have made it far more easy for themselves converting some of several good chances, but even a penalty was badly missed. Only in the 93rd minute a second penalty brought relief. Now the Dutch need 3 points from the last two matches (home against Republic of Ireland and last MD away against Gibraltar), so their qualification is all but mathematically assured. France qualified already comfortably. Greece will highly likely have the play-offs as the fallback option.

In group C England qualified by winning against Italy at Wembley. Italy will, as expected, have to fight it out with Ukraine on the last matchday. 

The authority Croatia seemed to stamp on the proceedings in group D in the previous window, was blown away in one sweep with losses against direct opponents Turkey and Wales. Turkey qualified for Germany with a Latvia win, and now Croatia and Wales will have to fight it out. Wales has the H2H advantage here.

In group E Albania scored a good win against the Czech Republic, making their qualification a formality. Poland only drew with Moldova. Their chances for direct qualification are now as low as 3%, they have to resort to the play-offs.

Belgium and Austria are qualified for Germany from group F. The match Belgium-Sweden was abandoned at half time at 1:1 because of a terrorist attack against Swedish fans right before the match started. The fate of that match isn't decided yet, but Belgium pleaded with UEFA to make the 1:1 the final result. In these simulation results the draw is already included. By the way, a classy attitude by the Belgian FA, given that they are still pursuing a pot 1 spot for the final draw. Kudos.

Hungary won again against Serbia but failed to secure qualification already against Lithuania. Serbia won against direct opponent Montenegro which almost guarantees them second place in group G. 

In group H Finland left the four-way fight for two places already with two losses against Slovenia and Kazakhstan. They are qualified for the play-offs though, courtesy of Scotland's qualification. Slovenia and Denmark seem to be the two teams to qualify directly from this group, redirecting Kazakhstan also to the play-offs.

In Group I the matches of Israel got postponed for obvious reasons. Israel-Switzerland is rescheduled to early in the November window. When Kosovo-Israel will be played is yet unclear. This group has as a consequence still 3 teams to fight for the two spots: Switzerland, Romania and Israel. The latter always has a secured play-off spot to rely upon.

In group J Portugal is qualified, Slovakia won the direct confrontation in Luxembourg and is now all but qualified. Luxembourg meanwhile has received a guaranteed spot in the play-offs, courtesy of Turkey's qualification. From this group Bosnia-Herzegovina is also heading for the play-offs.

The probabilities for each UEFA team to qualify for EURO 2024, directly (Qdirect) or via the play-offs (po-semi, po-final and po-win). In column Qtot the total probability to qualify for EURO 2024 as the sum of Qdirect and po-win. Teams are ordered by this column. UNL group winners are indicated with 'gw' and the league letter.

In the last column you can find the difference in Qtot (in %-points) compared to the simulation results after MD6.

team - grp	Qdirect	po-semi	po-final	po-win	Qtot	diff
Germany (host)	100.00	0	0	0	100.00	0.00
Portugal - J	100.00	0	0	0	100.00	0.00
England - C	100.00	0	0	0	100.00	0.01
France - B	100.00	0	0	0	100.00	0.01
Belgium - F	100.00	0	0	0	100.00	0.02
Austria - F	100.00	0	0	0	100.00	0.10
Spain - A (gw-A)	100.00	0	0	0	100.00	0.59
Turkey - D (gw-C)	100.00	0	0	0	100.00	14.42
Scotland - A (gw-B)	100.00	0	0	0	100.00	0.74
Albania - E	99.99	0	0	0	99.99	10.61
Netherlands - B (gw-A)	99.93	0.07	0.07	0.05	99.98	1.48
Serbia - G (gw-B)	99.91	0.09	0.07	0.05	99.96	2.62
Hungary - G	99.50	0.50	0.42	0.25	99.75	0.50
Denmark - H	99.55	0.45	0.38	0.18	99.73	1.85
Slovakia - J	97.94	0	0	0	97.94	41.14
Switzerland - I	93.48	6.52	4.98	2.51	95.99	-1.91
Czech Republic - E	94.40	5.57	3.48	1.55	95.95	5.40
Slovenia - H	93.11	0	0	0	93.11	50.52
Croatia - D (gw-A)	69.22	30.78	29.88	20.08	89.30	-10.53
Italy - C (gw-A)	70.23	29.77	27.48	17.39	87.62	-5.05
Israel - I (gw-B)	48.56	51.44	34.08	16.07	64.63	8.62
Ukraine - C	29.77	70.23	43.76	30.64	60.41	2.07
Romania - I	57.86	0	0	0	57.86	-5.90
Greece - B (gw-C)	0.07	99.93	85.34	52.64	52.71	1.20
Wales - D	30.29	69.64	37.00	17.47	47.76	11.87
Georgia - A (gw-C)	0	100.00	79.38	35.48	35.48	-1.21
Poland - E	3.12	96.87	70.30	29.44	32.56	-20.87
Finland - H	0	100.00	49.35	24.05	24.05	-51.03
Bosnia-Herzegovina - J (gw-B)	0	100.00	48.83	18.09	18.09	-0.05
Norway - A	0	42.66	23.91	13.85	13.85	-12.64
Kazakhstan - H (gw-C)	7.34	92.66	13.42	4.68	12.02	3.55
Luxembourg - J	2.06	97.94	20.25	6.74	8.80	-35.96
Iceland - J	0	98.32	20.92	7.20	7.20	-1.56
Moldova - E	2.49	0	0	0	2.49	1.52
Estonia - F (gw-D)	0	97.09	5.09	1.13	1.13	-0.59
Montenegro - G	0.59	0	0	0	0.59	-5.49
Armenia - D	0.49	0	0	0	0.49	-2.15
Azerbaijan - F	0	9.24	1.55	0.44	0.44	-1.22
Kosovo - I	0.10	0.23	0.06	0.02	0.12	-0.07
Republic of Ireland - B	0	0	0	0	0	-1.98
Sweden - F	0	0	0	0	0	-0.23
North Macedonia - C	0	0	0	0	0	-0.40
Bulgaria - G	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Belarus - I	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Northern Ireland - H	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Faroe Islands - E	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Lithuania - G	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Latvia - D (gw-D)	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Cyprus - A	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Andorra - I	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Gibraltar - B	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Liechtenstein - J	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
Malta - C	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
San Marino - H	0	0	0	0	0	0.00

A preview of the composition of the play-off paths can be determined by taking the top two from each group with highest probabilities to qualify directly out of the equation and see which teams will qualify for the play-offs in that situation:

Non-qualified group winners from leagues C to A:

From league C: Georgia (33), Greece (34), Kazakhstan (36).

From league B: Israel (17), Bosnia-Herzegovina (18)

From league A: all group winners qualify directly.

The following non group-winners (ngw) complete the play-offs:

from league A: Poland (11) and Wales (16)

from league B: Finland (21), Ukraine (22) and Iceland (23)

from league C: Luxembourg (37)

from league D: Estonia (49)

So we have:

League D 1 team: 1 group-winner

League C 4 teams: 3 group-winners and 1 non group-winner

League B 5 teams: 2 group-winners and 3 non group-winners

League A 2 teams: 2 non group-winners

This leads to the following play-off semi finals:

path C:

Georgia - Luxembourg

Greece - Kazakhstan

path B:

Israel - remaining team from Ukraine/Iceland

Bosnia-Herzegovina - remaining team from Finland/Ukraine

path A:

Poland - Estonia

Wales - draw from Finland/Ukraine/Iceland

Finally a preview of the pots for the draw of the final EURO 2024 tournament. 

Each of the four pots will contain 6 teams. Germany as host will be in pot 1, the other 20 directly qualified teams are seeded in pots, based on the overall EURO 2024 qualification ranking. The three play-off path winners are always seeded in pot 4.

The teams are ordered by average overall EURO 2024 qualification ranking position, weighed with the probability to qualify (direct or via play-offs):

team	pot 1	pot 2	pot 3	pot 4
Germany	100.00	0	0	0
Portugal	100.00	0	0	0
France	99.78	0.22	0	0
England	95.44	4.56	0	0
Belgium	95.07	2.66	2.27	0
Spain	84.01	13.06	2.90	0.03
---------------------------
Hungary	16.05	80.45	2.12	1.13
Albania	2.12	91.98	4.51	1.38
Denmark	0.74	75.98	15.59	7.42
Turkey	0.16	62.43	34.95	2.46
Scotland	5.82	40.83	51.70	1.65
Switzerland	0.22	75.02	3.35	17.40
---------------------------
Austria	0.53	44.49	54.89	0.09
Netherlands	0	13.26	85.58	1.14
Serbia	0	3.48	90.48	6.00
Slovenia	0.06	23.08	54.55	15.42
Croatia	0	17.65	46.52	25.13
Czech Republic	0	5.96	40.42	49.57
---------------------------
Italy	0	0.01	54.67	32.94
Slovakia	0	0	19.78	78.16
Israel	0	9.78	1.46	53.39
Ukraine	0	0	24.70	35.71
Romania	0	14.98	0.85	42.03
Wales	0	19.81	3.84	24.11
Greece	0	0	0.05	52.66
Georgia	0	0	0	35.48
Poland	0	0	0.02	32.54
Finland	0	0	0	24.05
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0	0	0	18.09
Norway	0	0	0	13.85
Kazakhstan	0	0.17	4.47	7.38
Luxembourg	0	0	0	8.80
Iceland	0	0	0	7.20
Moldova	0	0.10	0.25	2.14
Estonia	0	0	0	1.13
Montenegro	0	0.04	0.07	0.48
Armenia	0	0	0.01	0.48
Azerbaijan	0	0	0	0.44
Kosovo	0	0	0	0.12
Republic of Ireland	0	0	0	0
Sweden	0	0	0	0
North Macedonia	0	0	0	0
Belarus	0	0	0	0
Northern Ireland	0	0	0	0
Bulgaria	0	0	0	0
Faroe Islands	0	0	0	0
Lithuania	0	0	0	0
Latvia	0	0	0	0
Cyprus	0	0	0	0
Andorra	0	0	0	0
Gibraltar	0	0	0	0
Liechtenstein	0	0	0	0
Malta	0	0	0	0
San Marino	0	0	0	0

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.