FIFA will publish this ranking next Thursday November 30th. This final preview contains 189 matches, out of 200 matches played since October 23rd.
The last round of four group matches in the Pacific Games 2023 is to be played tomorrow and Friday and three of those matches will be included in the November ranking (Tahiti - Northern Mariana Islands won't be, for obvious reasons). The knock-out stage of this tournament will be included in the December 2023 ranking.
There came quite some reactions and suggestions on my first post about another way of ranking the international top scorers. I can only agree with the main criticism: the measure of how valuable the top scorer is, could be better contrived than by calculating the average elo-points of the opponent per goal scored. This measure indeed mainly indicated that some top scorers played mostly weaker opposition.
Some suggested to not take the average but just weigh the goals with some weigh factors. I agree, each goal scored should contribute -more or less- to the total score of a top scorer, not carry the danger that the total score got reduced.
Here is the probable November 2023 ranking, to be published on Thursday November 30th. In the upcoming November window matches for the following tournaments will be played:
- the CONCACAF Nations League 2024 group stage in leagues B and C plays to a finish with match days 5 and 6. In league A the home-and-away quarter finals are scheduled. The winners qualify for the CNL Final Four in March 2024 and the Copa America 2024 next Summer. The 4 losers go to two one-off play-offs in March 2024 to determine the final two CONCACAF participants in the Copa America. For ranking calculation purposes I expect the new quarter final matches to have an I-factor of 25, same as the CNL Final Four matches;
- the qualification for EURO 2024 plays to a finish with match days 9 and 10. Both postponed matches of Israel from the October window are scheduled early in the November window;
- qualification for the World Cup 2026 continues with match days 5 and 6 in the South American group. Asia and Africa start with their group stage, playing match days 1 and 2. Eritrea seems to have withdrawn at the last moment. Fearing new bad publicity with players defecting after away matches they've chosen to not participate in the 10-match group stage. As a consequence they won't be ranked in the FIFA ranking in the foreseeable future;
- for the Pacific Games in Honiara on the Solomon Islands the 12 participants are drawn in 4 groups of 3 teams. The match schedule is not yet published. I've assumed a schedule to be able to incorporate the group stage matches in this ranking preview. The 3 OFC teams that were excluded in July from the FIFA ranking (Samoa, American Samoa and Tonga) will participate, so they will be ranked again in the November ranking.
- with all confederations in full swing very few friendlies are scheduled for this window.
Here are the probable results of all 186 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including November 26th, used to calculate the November 2023 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since October 23rd, (probably) counting for the November ranking, are presented.
