FIFA ranking: November 2023 probable ranking

Here is the probable November 2023 ranking, to be published on Thursday November 30th. In the upcoming November window matches for the following tournaments will be played:

- the CONCACAF Nations League 2024 group stage in leagues B and C plays to a finish with match days 5 and 6. In league A the home-and-away quarter finals are scheduled. The winners qualify for the CNL Final Four in March 2024 and the Copa America 2024 next Summer. The 4 losers go to two one-off play-offs in March 2024 to determine the final two CONCACAF participants in the Copa America. For ranking calculation purposes I expect the new quarter final matches to have an I-factor of 25, same as the CNL Final Four matches;

- the qualification for EURO 2024 plays to a finish with match days 9 and 10. Both postponed matches of Israel from the October window are scheduled early in the November window;

- qualification for the World Cup 2026 continues with match days 5 and 6 in the South American group. Asia and Africa start with their group stage, playing match days 1 and 2. Eritrea seems to have withdrawn at the last moment. Fearing new bad publicity with players defecting after away matches they've chosen to not participate in the 10-match group stage. As a consequence they won't be ranked in the FIFA ranking in the foreseeable future;

- for the Pacific Games in Honiara on the Solomon Islands the 12 participants are drawn in 4 groups of 3 teams. The match schedule is not yet published. I've assumed a schedule to be able to incorporate the group stage matches in this ranking preview. The 3 OFC teams that were excluded in July from the FIFA ranking (Samoa, American Samoa and Tonga) will participate, so they will be ranked again in the November ranking.

- with all confederations in full swing very few friendlies are scheduled for this window.

This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 186 currently played and scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 198 currently played and scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are currently included.

pos Nov.	team	pts Nov.	+/- pos	+/- pts
1	Argentina	1867,40	0	6,11
2	France	1857,94	0	4,83
3	England	1812,55	1	4,67
4	Brazil	1809,39	-1	-2,81
5	Belgium	1798,28	0	4,57
6	Netherlands	1745,48	1	6,22
7	Portugal	1745,06	-1	5,23
8	Spain	1732,64	0	6,67
9	Italy	1731,32	0	13,51
10	Croatia	1717,43	0	5,55
11	USA	1683,15	0	7,26
12	Mexico	1673,86	0	9,92
13	Switzerland	1662,55	1	17,17
14	Morocco	1661,69	-1	3,20
15	Germany	1646,13	1	2,64
16	Uruguay	1641,00	-1	-2,72
17	Colombia	1638,70	0	12,10
18	Denmark	1626,31	1	14,16
19	Japan	1620,00	-1	7,01
20	Senegal	1606,97	0	6,15
21	Iran	1577,58	0	10,28
22	Sweden	1554,83	1	9,07
23	Korea Republic	1550,41	1	10,06
24	Peru	1549,59	2	17,02
25	Austria	1541,19	0	5,78
26	Ukraine	1540,85	-4	-8,48
27	Australia	1539,43	0	8,18
28	Hungary	1537,36	2	15,46
29	Wales	1533,84	-1	5,15
30	Serbia	1529,68	-1	4,28
31	Tunisia	1523,05	1	6,91
32	Poland	1520,24	-1	0,96
33	Algeria	1519,85	0	6,95
34	Ecuador	1519,50	2	11,19
35	Scotland	1519,39	-1	7,05
36	Egypt	1518,91	-1	6,96
37	Chile	1502,02	0	-1,79
38	Nigeria	1499,24	2	8,76
39	Russia	1497,63	0	0
40	Turkey	1495,81	-2	-2,69
41	Czech Republic	1493,89	0	4,17
42	Cameroon	1475,36	1	8,38
43	Panama	1473,17	1	12,08
44	Canada	1465,95	1	11,00
45	Norway	1459,86	-3	-9,70
46	Mali	1458,30	1	8,55
47	Slovakia	1453,52	3	8,18
48	Cote d'Ivoire	1448,10	4	8,92
49	Greece	1441,45	2	-1,51
50	Costa Rica	1440,02	-4	-12,08
51	Venezuela	1436,86	-2	-8,81
52	Romania	1436,01	-4	-10,51
53	Slovenia	1427,84	1	-0,26
54	Burkina Faso	1423,30	2	12,71
55	Paraguay	1418,23	-2	-18,73
56	Jamaica	1411,84	-1	-9,55
57	Ghana	1408,96	3	14,22
58	Albania	1407,47	1	10,64
59	Qatar	1406,78	2	12,62
60	Republic of Ireland	1404,60	-2	-2,34
61	Finland	1401,31	1	12,85
62	Saudi Arabia	1396,35	-5	-12,50
63	South Africa	1382,08	1	15,73
64	Congo DR	1381,44	1	15,26
65	Bosnia-Herzegovina	1368,03	-2	-0,27
66	Iraq	1365,98	2	16,25
67	Oman	1349,89	5	15,52
68	North Macedonia	1349,67	-2	-8,74
69	Montenegro	1342,91	1	-1,39
70	Cape Verde Islands	1342,30	4	15,37
71	United Arab Emirates	1339,46	-2	-9,41
72	Iceland	1338,39	-5	-14,78
73	Israel	1335,52	-2	-0,82
74	Uzbekistan	1332,76	-1	-0,33
75	Georgia	1312,45	1	0,31
76	Jordan	1309,84	6	25,45
77	Zambia	1309,56	4	18,22
78	Northern Ireland	1308,17	-3	-16,89
79	El Salvador	1307,00	-2	0
80	Bahrain	1302,29	3	20,83
81	Honduras	1295,15	-3	-9,92
82	Guinea	1290,74	-2	-6,15
83	Gabon	1289,00	3	18,20
84	China PR	1287,23	-5	-9,76
85	Luxembourg	1273,07	2	6,40
86	Equatorial Guinea	1268,68	5	18,22
87	Bulgaria	1265,15	-3	-13,97
88	Haiti	1262,50	0	0
89	Curacao	1261,62	0	0
90	Bolivia	1259,55	-5	-11,54
91	Uganda	1257,40	-1	5,46
92	Benin	1237,34	1	-1,55
93	Vietnam	1235,58	1	-0,67
94	Syria	1232,96	-2	-6,41
95	Palestine	1229,88	1	5,83
96	Armenia	1224,80	-1	-9,45
97	Kazakhstan	1215,16	1	-4,49
98	Trinidad and Tobago	1210,17	1	-7,26
99	Mauritania	1207,75	2	-1,24
100	Belarus	1207,21	0	-5,31
101	Kosovo	1203,68	4	12,94
102	Kyrgyzstan	1199,14	-5	-24,89
103	Lebanon	1192,81	1	-5,44
104	New Zealand	1192,47	-1	-5,94
105	Thailand	1188,97	7	11,82
106	Madagascar	1187,63	2	-0,94
107	Guatemala	1187,48	0	-1,45
108	Guinea-Bissau	1185,55	2	-1,30
109	Tajikistan	1182,78	0	-4,45
110	Kenya	1181,92	0	-4,93
111	Korea DPR	1180,34	4	10,38
112	Congo	1179,80	-6	-10,10
113	India	1176,32	-11	-22,52
114	Namibia	1168,38	0	-4,03
115	Angola	1168,30	1	-1,34
116	Togo	1165,58	3	7,34
117	Gambia	1164,61	0	4,06
118	Mozambique	1156,12	-5	-20,46
119	Tanzania	1155,19	2	8,73
120	Estonia	1150,07	-2	-9,26
121	Azerbaijan	1149,40	-1	-6,51
122	Sierra Leone	1138,53	0	-6,59
123	Cyprus	1138,42	1	-2,85
124	Malawi	1137,09	-1	-7,20
125	Zimbabwe	1132,26	0	-6,30
126	Libya	1130,44	0	-7,20
127	Malaysia	1122,87	10	26,15
128	Kuwait	1122,48	8	25,43
129	Central African Republic	1121,13	-2	-5,59
130	Comoros	1119,18	-2	-6,39
131	Solomon Islands	1112,20	0	4,59
132	Nicaragua	1111,97	1	12,27
133	Niger	1102,75	-4	-20,06
134	Latvia	1097,84	-2	-3,86
135	Lithuania	1091,93	-1	-6,55
136	Sudan	1091,47	-6	-17,75
137	Faroe Islands	1089,82	-2	-7,84
138	Rwanda	1082,04	2	-4,99
139	Antigua and Barbuda	1080,13	0	-9,94
140	Turkmenistan	1078,25	1	-7,87
141	Indonesia	1076,51	4	6,69
142	Botswana	1076,28	6	20,43
143	Philippines	1073,67	-5	-22,27
144	Suriname	1071,85	0	0
145	Ethiopia	1068,99	-2	-3,55
146	Burundi	1062,14	-4	-18,29
147	Eswatini	1058,38	-1	-4,75
148	St. Kitts and Nevis	1057,05	-1	-1,01
149	Dominican Republic	1048,06	0	-0,97
150	Hong Kong	1042,93	0	-2,08
151	Liberia	1036,36	0	-5,14
152	Chinese Taipei	1023,93	0	-16,77
153	Guyana	1023,33	7	13,71
154	Lesotho	1022,53	-1	-11,65
155	Singapore	1020,78	0	-12,11
156	Afghanistan	1018,26	-2	-15,54
157	Yemen	1015,44	-1	-8,15
158	Moldova	1010,25	-1	-8,20
159	New Caledonia	1006,75	3	7,73
160	Maldives	1003,48	1	0
161	Myanmar	1000,74	-3	-10,99
162	Puerto Rico	999,72	2	6,67
163	Andorra	998,21	-4	-13,47
164	Tahiti	994,97	-1	-0,14
165	Papua New Guinea	990,99	0	-0,05
166	St. Lucia	988,67	0	1,01
167	Vanuatu	985,28	1	0,05
168	Cuba	981,87	1	0
169	Fiji	980,62	1	0,14
170	South Sudan	976,79	-3	-9,77
171	Bermuda	972,36	1	7,34
172	Malta	967,29	-1	-0,96
173	Nepal	960,55	0	-3,27
174	Grenada	950,99	2	0
175	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	945,97	0	-7,63
176	Barbados	943,59	-2	-13,40
177	Mauritius	932,20	0	-10,44
178	Cambodia	931,47	0	0
179	Montserrat	931,30	1	2,10
180	Belize	926,18	1	0,29
181	Dominica	922,25	3	12,33
182	Chad	920,37	-3	-9,85
183	Bhutan	913,02	-1	0
184	Bangladesh	904,03	-1	-8,57
185	Cook Islands	897,59	0	-1,74
186	Macau	896,62	1	0
187	Samoa	896,28	-	2,02
188	American Samoa	893,67	-	-6,60
189	Laos	889,62	-1	0
190	Mongolia	889,16	0	0
191	Sao Tomé e Príncipe	888,94	-5	-8,75
192	Djibouti	880,96	-3	-8,24
193	Aruba	879,32	-1	13,92
194	Brunei Darussalam	870,63	-3	0
195	Pakistan	856,33	-2	-8,51
196	Tonga	855,81	-	-6,00
197	Cayman Islands	851,19	-3	-7,31
198	Somalia	845,84	-2	-6,22
199	Seychelles	845,53	-4	-7,97
200	Timor-Leste	843,40	-3	0
201	Gibraltar	840,80	-3	-1,27
202	Liechtenstein	832,85	-2	-4,76
203	Bahamas	830,62	-4	-10,44
204	Sri Lanka	822,03	-2	0
205	Guam	821,91	-2	0
206	Turks and Caicos Islands	818,57	-5	-6,20
207	British Virgin Islands	807,57	-3	-6,13
208	US Virgin Islands	796,78	-3	-6,62
209	Anguilla	785,69	-3	0
210	San Marino	741,61	-3	-5,37

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.