Asian Cup of Nations 2023 simulations (December 2023)

In 2024 five of the six confederations have scheduled their continental championship for national teams. Here's number two in this series of simulation reports: Asia.

The Asian Cup of Nations 2023 was initially scheduled for June 2023 in Qatar. Just as with the World Cup last year the tournament couldn't be played in the Qatari Summer because it's much too hot there in that time of the year. So the continental showpiece had to be moved back to January 2024. That gave Qatar the opportunity to participate 'as guest' (or rather as the generous tournament sponsor who bought their berth) in the Gold Cup 2023 in the USA last July.

Anyway, the Asian continental showpiece kicks off on Friday January 12th and lasts until the final on Saturday February 10th. It has the same format as the previous edition in 2019 with 24 teams in 6 groups of 4 teams and a Round of 16 for which the 6 group numbers one and two qualify plus the 4 best group numbers three.

The complete tournament schedule is simulated. Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

First the group stage with teams ordered by ascending average group position in the last column:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Qatar	62,14	25,48	9,88	2,50	1,53
China PR	21,75	37,39	24,93	15,93	2,35
Tajikistan	10,94	23,68	38,67	26,71	2,81
Lebanon	5,17	13,45	26,52	54,86	3,31
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Australia	61,93	32,04	5,69	0,34	1,44
Uzbekistan	33,28	48,05	15,35	3,32	1,89
Syria	4,40	16,14	58,75	20,71	2,96
India	0,39	3,77	20,21	75,63	3,71
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Iran	67,81	19,29	11,91	0,99	1,46
United Arab Emirates	23,21	53,82	20,33	2,64	2,02
Palestine	8,65	25,09	53,24	13,02	2,71
Hong Kong	0,33	1,80	14,52	83,35	3,81
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Japan	79,84	19,15	0,98	0,03	1,21
Iraq	19,15	61,14	16,26	3,45	2,04
Vietnam	0,86	12,59	45,94	40,61	3,26
Indonesia	0,15	7,12	36,82	55,91	3,48
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Korea Republic	77,57	17,75	4,23	0,45	1,28
Jordan	13,50	45,02	30,67	10,81	2,39
Bahrain	7,37	25,71	39,17	27,75	2,87
Malaysia	1,56	11,52	25,93	60,99	3,46
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Saudi Arabia	44,71	34,85	15,63	4,81	1,81
Oman	40,29	31,65	20,24	7,82	1,96
Thailand	11,97	23,03	33,56	31,44	2,84
Kyrgyzstan	3,03	10,47	30,57	55,93	3,39

Then the knock-out stage, starting with the Round of 16. You see per team the probability to qualify directly as number one or two of the group (column q_nr1_2) or as one of the 4 best group numbers three (in column q_nr3). The teams are ordered by the last column containing the total probability to qualify for the knock-out stage.

team	nr 1_2	nr 3	Q_tot
Japan	98,99	0,94	99,93
Korea Republic	95,32	4,01	99,33
Australia	93,97	5,36	99,33
Iran	87,10	9,41	96,51
Qatar	87,62	8,74	96,36
United Arab Emirates	77,03	16,88	93,91
Saudi Arabia	79,56	14,21	93,77
Uzbekistan	81,33	11,84	93,17
Iraq	80,29	11,33	91,62
Oman	71,94	18,04	89,98
Jordan	58,52	21,12	79,64
China PR	59,14	18,07	77,21
Palestine	33,74	42,31	76,05
Bahrain	33,08	30,16	63,24
Thailand	35,00	25,77	60,77
Tajikistan	34,62	25,14	59,76
Syria	20,54	35,79	56,33
Vietnam	13,45	27,65	41,10
Lebanon	18,62	19,39	38,01
Kyrgyzstan	13,50	15,86	29,36
Malaysia	13,08	11,41	24,49
Indonesia	7,27	10,21	17,48
India	4,16	10,90	15,06
Hong Kong	2,13	5,46	7,59

The probability to qualify for the quarter finals. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the round of 16.

team	QF
Japan	88,62		[88,68]
Iran	83,16		[86,17]
Australia	82,89		[83,45]
Korea Republic	69,52		[69,99]
Qatar	65,60		[68,08]
Uzbekistan	62,12		[66,67]
United Arab Emirates	50,72		[54,01]
Saudi Arabia	44,43		[47,38]
Iraq	38,84		[42,39]
Oman	37,83		[42,04]
China PR	31,24		[40,46]
Jordan	29,99		[37,66]
Palestine	26,22		[34,48]
Bahrain	17,08		[27,01]
Tajikistan	16,30		[27,28]
Syria	16,21		[28,78]
Thailand	12,47		[20,52]
Lebanon	7,78		[20,47]
Vietnam	7,19		[17,49]
Malaysia	4,10		[16,74]
Kyrgyzstan	3,18		[10,83]
India	2,06		[13,68]
Indonesia	1,84		[10,53]
Hong Kong	0,61		[08,04]

The probability to qualify for the semi finals. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the quarter finals.

team	SF
Japan	73,06		[82,44]
Australia	60,10		[72,51]
Iran	48,33		[58,12]
Korea Republic	41,39		[59,54]
Uzbekistan	35,64		[57,37]
Qatar	32,98		[50,27]
Iraq	19,58		[50,41]
Saudi Arabia	19,46		[43,80]
Oman	14,80		[39,12]
United Arab Emirates	11,70		[23,07]
Jordan	9,94		[33,14]
China PR	7,86		[25,16]
Palestine	4,84		[18,46]
Syria	4,82		[29,73]
Bahrain	4,44		[26,00]
Thailand	3,20		[25,66]
Tajikistan	3,08		[18,90]
Vietnam	1,87		[26,01]
Lebanon	1,14		[14,65]
Malaysia	0,59		[14,39]
Kyrgyzstan	0,53		[16,67]
India	0,33		[16,02]
Indonesia	0,30		[16,30]
Hong Kong	0,02		[03,28]

The probability to qualify for the final. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the semi finals.

team	Final
Japan	53,65		[73,43]
Iran	33,49		[69,29]
Australia	28,64		[47,65]
Korea Republic	26,62		[64,32]
Qatar	13,99		[42,42]
Uzbekistan	12,17		[34,15]
Iraq	8,96		[45,76]
Saudi Arabia	5,82		[29,91]
United Arab Emirates	4,02		[34,36]
Oman	3,78		[25,54]
Jordan	2,63		[26,46]
China PR	1,71		[21,76]
Bahrain	1,04		[23,42]
Syria	0,99		[20,54]
Palestine	0,75		[15,50]
Thailand	0,49		[15,31]
Tajikistan	0,45		[14,61]
Vietnam	0,38		[20,32]
Lebanon	0,12		[10,53]
Malaysia	0,12		[20,34]
Kyrgyzstan	0,10		[18,87]
Indonesia	0,06		[20,00]
India	0,02		[06,06]
Hong Kong	0,00		[00,00]

The probability to win the Asian Cup of Nations 2023. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the final.

team	Winner
Japan	36,36		[67,77]
Iran	17,57		[52,46]
Australia	14,84		[51,82]
Korea Republic	13,11		[49,25]
Qatar	5,69		[40,67]
Uzbekistan	4,43		[36,40]
Iraq	2,52		[28,13]
Saudi Arabia	1,85		[31,79]
Oman	0,99		[26,19]
United Arab Emirates	0,98		[24,38]
Jordan	0,61		[23,19]
China PR	0,35		[20,47]
Syria	0,23		[23,23]
Bahrain	0,16		[15,38]
Palestine	0,13		[17,33]
Tajikistan	0,06		[13,33]
Thailand	0,04		[08,16]
Vietnam	0,04		[10,53]
Kyrgyzstan	0,02		[20,00]
Lebanon	0,01		[08,33]
Malaysia	0,01		[08,33]
Indonesia	0,00		[00,00]
India	0,00		[00,00]
Hong Kong	0,00		[00,00]

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.