FIFA will publish the December ranking next Thursday December 21st. This final preview contains 11 matches, out of 14 matches played since November 27th: the complete knock-out stage of the Pacific Games 2023 and one friendly.
I expect both forfeited knock-out matches of the Cook Islands to be included. They apparently had to leave the Solomon Islands after the two matches in the group stage and didn't participate in the play-offs for the 5th place in the competition.
One other friendly Colombia - Mexico is scheduled for coming Saturday and it will be included also. This is how the points and positions of both teams could change:
|
COL |
MEX |
||
result |
pts |
pos |
pts |
pos |
COL win |
1655,29 |
14 |
1652,70 |
15 |
draw |
1652,79 |
15 |
1655,20 |
14 |
MEX win |
1650,29 |
15 |
1657,70 |
14 |
Elo predicts a Colombia win.
Already played |
|||||||
incl. |
date |
match |
tournament |
I |
We (elo) |
We (FIFA) |
res and exchanged pts |
Y |
2023-11-27 |
TAH - SAM |
South Pacific Games 2023 |
5 |
93 |
59 |
W: 2,032/-2,032 |
Y |
2023-11-27 |
COK - PNG |
South Pacific Games 2023 |
5 |
7 |
42 |
L: -2,077/2,077 |
N |
2023-11-27 |
NMA - ASA |
South Pacific Games 2023 |
5 |
43 |
W: 0,000/0,000 |
|
N |
2023-11-27 |
TGA - TUV |
South Pacific Games 2023 |
5 |
23 |
L: 0,000/0,000 |
|
Y |
2023-11-28 |
FIJ - SOL |
South Pacific Games 2023 |
5 |
76 |
38 |
L: -1,882/1,882 |
Y |
2023-11-28 |
NCL - VAN |
South Pacific Games 2023 |
5 |
63 |
52 |
W: 2,406/-2,406 |
Y |
2023-11-30 |
TGA - ASA |
South Pacific Games 2023 |
5 |
63 |
46 |
W: 2,692/-2,692 |
Y |
2023-11-30 |
PNG - TAH |
South Pacific Games 2023 |
5 |
47 |
50 |
L: -2,481/2,481 |
Y |
2023-11-30 |
COK - SAM |
South Pacific Games 2023 |
5 |
48 |
51 |
L: -2,527/2,527 |
N |
2023-11-30 |
TUV - NMA |
South Pacific Games 2023 |
5 |
85 |
W: 0,000/0,000 |
|
Y |
2023-12-01 |
VAN - FIJ |
South Pacific Games 2023 |
5 |
38 |
50 |
L: -2,520/2,520 |
Y |
2023-12-02 |
NCL - SOL |
South Pacific Games 2023 |
5 |
76 |
40 |
PSO-W: 1,756/-0,506 |
Y |
2023-12-10 |
COL - VEN |
Friendly 2023 |
5 |
77 |
69 |
W: 1,575/-1,575 |
The NT football year 2023 is concluded with this December ranking. A small recap of the year:
Best movers in positions in 2023:
Panama +20 to 41
Moldova +19 to 155
Kazakhstan +15 to 100
Guinea-Bissau +15 to 103
Malaysia +15 to 130
Worst movers in positions in 2023:
Costa Rica -20 to 52
Cyprus -15 to 125
Peru -14 to 35
Best movers in points in 2023:
Panama +84 to 1476
Moldova +64 to 1023
Malaysia +56 to 1123
Worst movers in points in 2023:
Northern Ireland -63 to 1333
Costa Rica -63 to 1438
Bosnia-Herzegovina -60 to 1343
For the December ranking:
No team ends the year on a personal high or low note.
Best movers:
2 - Fiji
1 - Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, New Caledonia, Tahiti, Samoa
Worst movers:
-2 - Vanuatu
-1 - Mexico, Venezuela, Puerto Rico, Andorra, Macau
Best movers in the top 50:
1 - Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire
Worst movers in the top 50:
-1 - Mexico, Venezuela
Stay safe and healthy everybody !
pos Dec. |
team |
pts Dec. |
+/- pos |
+/- pts |
1 |
Argentina |
1855,20 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
France |
1845,44 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
England |
1800,05 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Belgium |
1798,46 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Brazil |
1784,09 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Netherlands |
1745,48 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Portugal |
1745,06 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Spain |
1732,64 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Italy |
1718,82 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Croatia |
1717,57 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Uruguay |
1666,00 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
USA |
1665,27 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
Morocco |
1661,69 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
Colombia |
1655,29 |
1 |
4,09 |
15 |
Mexico |
1652,70 |
-1 |
-2,52 |
16 |
Germany |
1631,22 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
Japan |
1620,19 |
0 |
0 |
18 |
Switzerland |
1613,44 |
0 |
0 |
19 |
Denmark |
1601,31 |
0 |
0 |
20 |
Senegal |
1594,31 |
0 |
0 |
21 |
Iran |
1565,08 |
0 |
0 |
22 |
Ukraine |
1553,35 |
0 |
0 |
23 |
Korea Republic |
1550,65 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
Austria |
1546,10 |
0 |
0 |
25 |
Australia |
1539,22 |
0 |
0 |
26 |
Sweden |
1530,19 |
0 |
0 |
27 |
Hungary |
1525,13 |
0 |
0 |
28 |
Tunisia |
1523,23 |
0 |
0 |
29 |
Wales |
1521,88 |
0 |
0 |
30 |
Algeria |
1520,26 |
0 |
0 |
31 |
Poland |
1520,24 |
0 |
0 |
32 |
Ecuador |
1519,20 |
0 |
0 |
33 |
Egypt |
1518,91 |
0 |
0 |
34 |
Serbia |
1517,43 |
0 |
0 |
35 |
Peru |
1512,68 |
0 |
0 |
36 |
Scotland |
1506,89 |
0 |
0 |
37 |
Turkey |
1505,28 |
0 |
0 |
38 |
Russia |
1498,84 |
0 |
0 |
39 |
Czech Republic |
1494,04 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
Chile |
1489,82 |
0 |
0 |
41 |
Panama |
1475,62 |
0 |
0 |
42 |
Nigeria |
1474,44 |
0 |
0 |
43 |
Romania |
1472,73 |
0 |
0 |
44 |
Norway |
1472,36 |
0 |
0 |
45 |
Slovakia |
1465,73 |
0 |
0 |
46 |
Cameroon |
1463,06 |
0 |
0 |
47 |
Greece |
1453,95 |
0 |
0 |
48 |
Canada |
1453,76 |
0 |
0 |
49 |
Cote d'Ivoire |
1447,65 |
1 |
0 |
50 |
Venezuela |
1447,20 |
-1 |
-1,57 |
51 |
Mali |
1445,60 |
0 |
0 |
52 |
Costa Rica |
1437,57 |
0 |
0 |
53 |
Paraguay |
1430,73 |
0 |
0 |
54 |
Slovenia |
1427,84 |
0 |
0 |
55 |
Jamaica |
1421,54 |
0 |
0 |
56 |
Saudi Arabia |
1421,06 |
0 |
0 |
57 |
Burkina Faso |
1411,01 |
0 |
0 |
58 |
Qatar |
1407,30 |
0 |
0 |
59 |
Finland |
1401,31 |
0 |
0 |
60 |
Republic of Ireland |
1399,60 |
0 |
0 |
61 |
Ghana |
1384,19 |
0 |
0 |
62 |
Albania |
1382,69 |
0 |
0 |
63 |
Iraq |
1365,98 |
0 |
0 |
64 |
United Arab Emirates |
1364,46 |
0 |
0 |
65 |
North Macedonia |
1362,17 |
0 |
0 |
66 |
South Africa |
1357,08 |
0 |
0 |
67 |
Congo DR |
1356,67 |
0 |
0 |
68 |
Uzbekistan |
1345,26 |
0 |
0 |
69 |
Bosnia-Herzegovina |
1343,32 |
0 |
0 |
70 |
Montenegro |
1342,64 |
0 |
0 |
71 |
Iceland |
1338,39 |
0 |
0 |
72 |
Northern Ireland |
1333,17 |
0 |
0 |
73 |
Cape Verde Islands |
1329,80 |
0 |
0 |
74 |
Oman |
1324,89 |
0 |
0 |
75 |
Israel |
1323,43 |
0 |
0 |
76 |
Honduras |
1313,80 |
0 |
0 |
77 |
Georgia |
1312,45 |
0 |
0 |
78 |
El Salvador |
1306,14 |
0 |
0 |
79 |
China PR |
1299,49 |
0 |
0 |
80 |
Guinea |
1290,01 |
0 |
0 |
81 |
Bulgaria |
1289,90 |
0 |
0 |
82 |
Gabon |
1289,52 |
0 |
0 |
83 |
Luxembourg |
1285,41 |
0 |
0 |
84 |
Zambia |
1284,56 |
0 |
0 |
85 |
Bolivia |
1284,55 |
0 |
0 |
86 |
Bahrain |
1277,29 |
0 |
0 |
87 |
Jordan |
1272,63 |
0 |
0 |
88 |
Equatorial Guinea |
1268,43 |
0 |
0 |
89 |
Haiti |
1262,50 |
0 |
0 |
90 |
Curacao |
1262,48 |
0 |
0 |
91 |
Syria |
1245,27 |
0 |
0 |
92 |
Uganda |
1245,08 |
0 |
0 |
93 |
Armenia |
1237,15 |
0 |
0 |
94 |
Vietnam |
1235,58 |
0 |
0 |
95 |
Belarus |
1232,80 |
0 |
0 |
96 |
Trinidad and Tobago |
1228,05 |
0 |
0 |
97 |
Benin |
1225,10 |
0 |
0 |
98 |
Kyrgyzstan |
1224,14 |
0 |
0 |
99 |
Palestine |
1217,60 |
0 |
0 |
100 |
Kazakhstan |
1215,16 |
0 |
0 |
101 |
Kosovo |
1202,77 |
0 |
0 |
102 |
India |
1200,80 |
0 |
0 |
103 |
Guinea-Bissau |
1197,83 |
0 |
0 |
104 |
New Zealand |
1197,47 |
0 |
0 |
105 |
Mauritania |
1195,25 |
0 |
0 |
106 |
Tajikistan |
1195,07 |
0 |
0 |
107 |
Lebanon |
1192,58 |
0 |
0 |
108 |
Guatemala |
1189,98 |
0 |
0 |
109 |
Madagascar |
1187,63 |
0 |
0 |
110 |
Kenya |
1181,92 |
0 |
0 |
111 |
Mozambique |
1180,71 |
0 |
0 |
112 |
Congo |
1179,80 |
0 |
0 |
113 |
Thailand |
1176,75 |
0 |
0 |
114 |
Azerbaijan |
1174,22 |
0 |
0 |
115 |
Namibia |
1168,38 |
0 |
0 |
116 |
Korea DPR |
1168,12 |
0 |
0 |
117 |
Angola |
1168,05 |
0 |
0 |
118 |
Togo |
1165,74 |
0 |
0 |
119 |
Comoros |
1156,45 |
0 |
0 |
120 |
Libya |
1155,23 |
0 |
0 |
121 |
Tanzania |
1155,19 |
0 |
0 |
122 |
Estonia |
1149,70 |
0 |
0 |
123 |
Malawi |
1149,40 |
0 |
0 |
124 |
Zimbabwe |
1144,56 |
0 |
0 |
125 |
Cyprus |
1143,42 |
0 |
0 |
126 |
Gambia |
1140,06 |
0 |
0 |
127 |
Sierra Leone |
1138,53 |
0 |
0 |
128 |
Sudan |
1128,74 |
0 |
0 |
129 |
Niger |
1127,75 |
0 |
0 |
130 |
Malaysia |
1122,87 |
0 |
0 |
131 |
Central African Republic |
1121,34 |
0 |
0 |
132 |
Solomon Islands |
1113,57 |
0 |
1,37 |
133 |
Rwanda |
1107,04 |
0 |
0 |
134 |
Nicaragua |
1104,26 |
0 |
0 |
135 |
Faroe Islands |
1102,10 |
0 |
0 |
136 |
Kuwait |
1098,07 |
0 |
0 |
137 |
Latvia |
1097,84 |
0 |
0 |
138 |
Lithuania |
1086,93 |
0 |
0 |
139 |
Burundi |
1086,62 |
0 |
0 |
140 |
Philippines |
1086,17 |
0 |
0 |
141 |
Turkmenistan |
1078,25 |
0 |
0 |
142 |
Antigua and Barbuda |
1072,66 |
0 |
0 |
143 |
Suriname |
1071,85 |
0 |
0 |
144 |
Ethiopia |
1068,79 |
0 |
0 |
145 |
Botswana |
1064,50 |
0 |
0 |
146 |
Indonesia |
1064,01 |
0 |
0 |
147 |
St. Kitts and Nevis |
1057,05 |
0 |
0 |
148 |
Lesotho |
1047,27 |
0 |
0 |
149 |
Eswatini |
1045,88 |
0 |
0 |
150 |
Hong Kong |
1042,93 |
0 |
0 |
151 |
Dominican Republic |
1040,77 |
0 |
0 |
152 |
Yemen |
1027,94 |
0 |
0 |
153 |
Liberia |
1024,11 |
0 |
0 |
154 |
Chinese Taipei |
1023,93 |
0 |
0 |
155 |
Moldova |
1022,60 |
0 |
0 |
156 |
Singapore |
1020,50 |
0 |
0 |
157 |
Guyana |
1018,14 |
0 |
0 |
158 |
Afghanistan |
1017,68 |
0 |
0 |
159 |
New Caledonia |
1008,92 |
1 |
4,16 |
160 |
Puerto Rico |
1007,19 |
-1 |
0 |
161 |
Maldives |
1003,48 |
0 |
0 |
162 |
Myanmar |
1000,46 |
0 |
0 |
163 |
Tahiti |
999,48 |
1 |
4,51 |
164 |
Andorra |
998,00 |
-1 |
0 |
165 |
Papua New Guinea |
990,61 |
0 |
-0,40 |
166 |
South Sudan |
989,29 |
0 |
0 |
167 |
St. Lucia |
988,67 |
0 |
0 |
168 |
Fiji |
981,26 |
2 |
0,64 |
169 |
Cuba |
980,65 |
0 |
0 |
170 |
Vanuatu |
980,33 |
-2 |
-4,93 |
171 |
Bermuda |
972,36 |
0 |
0 |
172 |
Malta |
967,29 |
0 |
0 |
173 |
St. Vincent and the Grenadines |
953,47 |
0 |
0 |
174 |
Grenada |
950,99 |
0 |
0 |
175 |
Nepal |
948,05 |
0 |
0 |
176 |
Montserrat |
946,08 |
0 |
0 |
177 |
Mauritius |
944,95 |
0 |
0 |
178 |
Barbados |
943,80 |
0 |
0 |
179 |
Cambodia |
931,47 |
0 |
0 |
180 |
Dominica |
922,25 |
0 |
0 |
181 |
Chad |
920,37 |
0 |
0 |
182 |
Belize |
918,68 |
0 |
0 |
183 |
Bangladesh |
916,75 |
0 |
0 |
184 |
Bhutan |
913,02 |
0 |
0 |
185 |
Cook Islands |
897,30 |
0 |
-4,60 |
186 |
Samoa |
896,78 |
1 |
0,50 |
187 |
Macau |
896,62 |
-1 |
0 |
188 |
American Samoa |
890,97 |
0 |
-2,70 |
189 |
Laos |
889,62 |
0 |
0 |
190 |
Mongolia |
889,16 |
0 |
0 |
191 |
Sao Tomé e PrÃncipe |
888,94 |
0 |
0 |
192 |
Djibouti |
881,18 |
0 |
0 |
193 |
Aruba |
879,32 |
0 |
0 |
194 |
Brunei Darussalam |
870,63 |
0 |
0 |
195 |
Pakistan |
856,54 |
0 |
0 |
196 |
Tonga |
856,18 |
0 |
2,69 |
197 |
Cayman Islands |
851,19 |
0 |
0 |
198 |
Somalia |
845,66 |
0 |
0 |
199 |
Seychelles |
845,53 |
0 |
0 |
200 |
Timor-Leste |
843,40 |
0 |
0 |
201 |
Gibraltar |
840,80 |
0 |
0 |
202 |
Bahamas |
835,81 |
0 |
0 |
203 |
Liechtenstein |
833,01 |
0 |
0 |
204 |
Sri Lanka |
822,03 |
0 |
0 |
205 |
Guam |
821,91 |
0 |
0 |
206 |
Turks and Caicos Islands |
818,57 |
0 |
0 |
207 |
British Virgin Islands |
807,57 |
0 |
0 |
208 |
US Virgin Islands |
796,78 |
0 |
0 |
209 |
Anguilla |
785,69 |
0 |
0 |
210 |
San Marino |
741,61 |
0 |
0 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
How about that! No need to extra include or exclude matches for this December ranking. The final preview above turned out to be exactly what FIFA published. That's a first for me :)
ReplyDeletehello are you going to simulate results and points for the African Cup? Tanks you
ReplyDeleteDone already. See here.
ReplyDeleteHow did you come to +12,487966052047 for Congo DR?
ReplyDeleteIt looks to be a little to much.
The ranking against Gabon 18/6-2023 would be 1351,110429478 instead of 1338,610429478
ReplyDeleteThis gives Congo DR 11,20069507 ranking instead of 11,4979556 ranking for this match.
The right addition should therefore be 12,20273946, would I mean.
Sorry fellow. That’s gives all too much to the other site.
ReplyDeleteThe regulation must be between 12,475502 and 12,486303 to give Congo DR a current ranking of 1356,66. Even in the first case, it doesn’t bring other countries away from the right ranking.
First of all, I wonder, why FIFA changes the results so long time after the games has been played.
Secondly, why doesn’t FIFA just change the original game calculation, although it affects those countries the involved lands have played against in the meanwhile?
It is so little different, but it is more correct; as it would have been so, in the case FIFA immediately had discovered the need to change the result.
When FIFA afterwards find a reason to alter the result of a match in a later ranking, it's often because they received information (most of the time a -belated- official match report) after they have calculated and published the ranking the match was originally included in. Most common reasons to alter a match result are:
ReplyDelete- a team fielded an ineligible player and the other team got the match awarded;
- the referee turned out to be not FIFA approved;
- there were more than the maximum 6 allowed substitutes per team in a friendly;
- a match was abandoned after f.i. crowd trouble and a decision about the outcome could only be made later on, so the match was included in a later ranking.
The way to proceed in these cases was always that FIFA used the FIFA-points of each involved team at the moment the decision to alter the match result was taken, and calculated the points to exchange between the teams, given the adapted match result. A correction term was then calculated as the difference between the points exchanged for the match in the original ranking and the new calculated points exchanged after the decision to alter the match result. This calculated correction term was applied on each team's FIFA-points right before the calculation of the included matches in the current ranking starts.
However, since March this year in the few cases that instigated a correction to be applied, the correction term was always slightly different than when this protocol was followed to the letter. At the appropriate places I have described that in the comment section of the post of the final preview of such a ranking. I can't think of the method they have adapted apparently as their new protocol.
Anyway, to match their published ranking for each team on two decimals, I still calculate the correction term the way I was used to and adapt an extra correction (most of the time a few hundredths to a few tenths of a point) to land on exactly their -on 2 decimals rounded- published points total.
The effect is that now and then I have a few teams with a (maximum) 0.01 difference compared to their published points. In this December ranking it were Uruguay, Congo DR and Mozambique.
Why doesn't FIFA just change the original game calculation? Because they don't want to recalculate (and republish) in the meantime published rankings again.
What I don't understand in their recalculation protocol is why they don't use the starting points of the involved teams at the moment the match was originally played and only alter the match result in the recalculation.
I would love to read FIFA's explanation of their recalculation protocol and their answers to these little questions, but I've given up mailing them about it, because I never receive an answer anyway.
So, my readers, if any of you has some deeper thoughts or suggestions about this topic... I'm curious :)
The cases Benin-Rwanda and Congo DR-Mauritania are very similar.
ReplyDeleteIn both cases the original regulation is about +/-3,5 ranking.
All 4 countries play 1 match in between the FIFA regulations.
Although in the later case the regulation is very near the fully 12,50 adjustments.
In the first case the adjustments are over 0,4 from that. More than 3%.
It can only be the match in between, that decide how much?
Congo DR and Mauritania both win against equal opponents.
Benin draw and Rwanda lose to stronger opponents.