Here are the probable results of all 151 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including February 11th, used to calculate the February 2024 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since December 18th, (probably) counting for the February ranking, are presented.
In the first column is indicated if the match is included or not, according to my inclusion-method. You see after the match identification data, the I-factor, the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo and according to FIFA in %.
For the already played matches the match result and the exchanged points are given.
For the scheduled matches the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team are given. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) of loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.
Normally the home team's gained points will be the away-team's lost points. Still, both are given because there are in FIFA's calculation approach cases when they will not be the same: PSO-matches and knock-out matches in final competitions.
Before posting comments like: "Hey, my team actually beat the other team ! It's a mistake !" please take note that these are calculated predictions of scheduled matches. So no, they don't constitute my personal opinion about the matches. Just mathematics doing the job :)
At the end of this post I present the elo and FIFA prediction success rates for all matches in 2023.
|
Already played |
|||||||
|
incl. |
date |
match |
tournament |
I |
We (elo) |
We (FIFA) |
res and exchanged pts |
|
Y |
2023-12-25 |
KGZ - UZB |
Friendly 2023 |
5 |
10 |
39 |
L: -1,929/1,929 |
|
N |
2023-12-27 |
ZAN - TAN |
Friendly 2023 |
5 |
61 |
D: 0,000/0,000 |
|
|
Y |
2023-12-28 |
LIB - JOR |
Friendly 2023 |
5 |
35 |
42 |
W: 2,881/-2,881 |
|
Y |
2023-12-29 |
OMA - CHN |
Friendly 2023 |
5 |
62 |
52 |
W: 2,378/-2,378 |
|
Y |
2023-12-30 |
UAE - KGZ |
Friendly 2023 |
5 |
90 |
63 |
W: 1,834/-1,834 |
|
Y |
2023-12-31 |
QAT - CAM |
Friendly 2023 |
5 |
99 |
86 |
W: 0,694/-0,694 |
|
Y |
2024-01-01 |
CHN - HKG |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
90 |
73 |
L: -3,631/3,631 |
|
Y |
2024-01-01 |
JPN - THA |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
97 |
85 |
W: 0,771/-0,771 |
|
Y |
2024-01-02 |
LBY - IDN |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
61 |
59 |
W: 2,067/-2,067 |
|
Y |
2024-01-04 |
LIB - KSA |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
17 |
30 |
L: -1,481/1,481 |
|
Y |
2024-01-04 |
TJK - HKG |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
84 |
64 |
W: 1,806/-1,806 |
|
Y |
2024-01-05 |
IRN - BFA |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
89 |
64 |
W: 1,782/-1,782 |
|
Y |
2024-01-05 |
LBY - IDN |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
65 |
59 |
W: 2,048/-2,048 |
|
Y |
2024-01-05 |
QAT - JOR |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
68 |
63 |
L: -3,148/3,148 |
|
Y |
2024-01-05 |
SYR - KGZ |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
73 |
52 |
D: -0,119/0,119 |
|
N |
2024-01-05 |
TOG - ALG |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
20 |
20 |
L: 0,000/0,000 |
|
Scheduled |
||||||||||||
|
incl. |
date |
match |
tournament |
I |
We (elo) |
pred elo |
We (FIFA) |
W |
D |
L |
PSO-W |
PSO-L |
|
Y |
2024-01-06 |
BHR - AUS |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
13 |
2 |
27 |
3,7/-3,7 |
1,2/-1,2 |
-1,3/1,3 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-06 |
COD - ANG |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
66 |
1 |
67 |
1,6/-1,6 |
-0,9/0,9 |
-3,4/3,4 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-06 |
CIV - SLE |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
92 |
1 |
77 |
1,2/-1,2 |
-1,3/1,3 |
-3,8/3,8 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-06 |
KOR - IRQ |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
74 |
1 |
67 |
1,6/-1,6 |
-0,9/0,9 |
-3,4/3,4 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-06 |
MLI - GNB |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
85 |
1 |
72 |
1,4/-1,4 |
-1,1/1,1 |
-3,6/3,6 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-06 |
MOZ - LES |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
66 |
1 |
63 |
1,9/-1,9 |
-0,6/0,6 |
-3,1/3,1 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-06 |
TUN - MTN |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
93 |
1 |
78 |
1,1/-1,1 |
-1,4/1,4 |
-3,9/3,9 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-06 |
UAE - OMA |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
61 |
X |
54 |
2,3/-2,3 |
-0,2/0,2 |
-2,7/2,7 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-07 |
EGY - TAN |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
92 |
1 |
80 |
1,0/-1,0 |
-1,5/1,5 |
-4,0/4,0 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-07 |
PLE - UZB |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
31 |
2 |
38 |
3,1/-3,1 |
0,6/-0,6 |
-1,9/1,9 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-08 |
GHA - NAM |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
83 |
1 |
70 |
1,5/-1,5 |
-1,0/1,0 |
-3,5/3,5 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-08 |
MOZ - BOT |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
53 |
X |
61 |
1,9/-1,9 |
-0,6/0,6 |
-3,1/3,1 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-08 |
NGA - GUI |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
72 |
1 |
67 |
1,7/-1,7 |
-0,8/0,8 |
-3,3/3,3 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-08 |
SEN - NIG |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
97 |
1 |
86 |
0,7/-0,7 |
-1,8/1,8 |
-4,3/4,3 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-08 |
SYR - MAS |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
67 |
1 |
62 |
1,9/-1,9 |
-0,6/0,6 |
-3,1/3,1 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-09 |
ALG - BDI |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
93 |
1 |
84 |
0,8/-0,8 |
-1,7/1,7 |
-4,2/4,2 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-09 |
EQG - DJI |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
98 |
1 |
82 |
0,9/-0,9 |
-1,6/1,6 |
-4,1/4,1 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-09 |
IRN - IDN |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
96 |
1 |
87 |
0,6/-0,6 |
-1,9/1,9 |
-4,4/4,4 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-09 |
JPN - JOR |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
91 |
1 |
79 |
1,0/-1,0 |
-1,5/1,5 |
-4,0/4,0 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-09 |
KSA - PLE |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
75 |
1 |
69 |
1,6/-1,6 |
-0,9/0,9 |
-3,4/3,4 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-09 |
VIE - KGZ |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
68 |
1 |
51 |
2,4/-2,4 |
-0,1/0,1 |
-2,6/2,6 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-09 |
ZAM - CMR |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
33 |
2 |
34 |
3,3/-3,3 |
0,8/-0,8 |
-1,7/1,7 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-10 |
BFA - COD |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
58 |
X |
55 |
2,3/-2,3 |
-0,2/0,2 |
-2,7/2,7 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-10 |
KSA - HKG |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
95 |
1 |
81 |
0,9/-0,9 |
-1,6/1,6 |
-4,1/4,1 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-10 |
RSA - LES |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
88 |
1 |
77 |
1,2/-1,2 |
-1,3/1,3 |
-3,8/3,8 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-10 |
TUN - CPV |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
89 |
1 |
68 |
1,6/-1,6 |
-0,9/0,9 |
-3,4/3,4 |
||
|
N |
2024-01-11 |
BHR - ANG |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
72 |
1 |
60 |
2,0/-2,0 |
-0,5/0,5 |
-3,0/3,0 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-11 |
MAR - SLE |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
95 |
1 |
88 |
0,6/-0,6 |
-1,9/1,9 |
-4,4/4,4 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-12 |
QAT - LIB |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
85 |
1 |
69 |
10,8/-10,8 |
-6,7/6,7 |
-24,2/24,2 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-12 |
LBY - KUW |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
65 |
1 |
56 |
2,2/-2,2 |
-0,3/0,3 |
-2,8/2,8 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-12 |
SWE - EST |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
87 |
1 |
81 |
0,9/-0,9 |
-1,6/1,6 |
-4,1/4,1 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-13 |
CHN - TJK |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
58 |
X |
59 |
14,3/-14,3 |
-3,2/3,2 |
-20,7/20,7 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-13 |
AUS - IND |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
95 |
1 |
79 |
7,5/-7,5 |
-10,0/10,0 |
-27,5/27,5 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-13 |
UZB - SYR |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
78 |
1 |
60 |
14,1/-14,1 |
-3,4/3,4 |
-20,9/20,9 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-13 |
CIV - GNB |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
87 |
1 |
72 |
9,6/-9,6 |
-7,9/7,9 |
-25,4/25,4 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-13 |
GUA - ISL |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
53 |
X |
36 |
3,2/-3,2 |
0,7/-0,7 |
-1,8/1,8 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-14 |
IRN - PLE |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
92 |
1 |
80 |
7,2/-7,2 |
-10,3/10,3 |
-27,8/27,8 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-14 |
UAE - HKG |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
93 |
1 |
78 |
7,9/-7,9 |
-9,6/9,6 |
-27,1/27,1 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-14 |
JPN - VIE |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
95 |
1 |
81 |
6,5/-6,5 |
-11,0/11,0 |
-28,5/28,5 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-14 |
NGA - EQG |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
61 |
1 |
69 |
10,9/-10,9 |
-6,6/6,6 |
-24,1/24,1 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-14 |
EGY - MOZ |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
87 |
1 |
79 |
7,5/-7,5 |
-10,0/10,0 |
-27,5/27,5 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-14 |
GHA - CPV |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
61 |
X |
55 |
15,6/-15,6 |
-1,9/1,9 |
-19,4/19,4 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-15 |
IDN - IRQ |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
12 |
2 |
24 |
26,7/-26,7 |
9,2/-9,2 |
-8,3/8,3 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-15 |
KOR - BHR |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
88 |
1 |
74 |
9,0/-9,0 |
-8,5/8,5 |
-26,0/26,0 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-15 |
MAS - JOR |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
22 |
2 |
36 |
22,4/-22,4 |
4,9/-4,9 |
-12,6/12,6 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-15 |
CMR - GUI |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
76 |
1 |
66 |
11,8/-11,8 |
-5,7/5,7 |
-23,2/23,2 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-15 |
SEN - GAM |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
87 |
1 |
85 |
5,2/-5,2 |
-12,3/12,3 |
-29,8/29,8 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-15 |
ALG - ANG |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
89 |
1 |
80 |
7,1/-7,1 |
-10,4/10,4 |
-27,9/27,9 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-16 |
KSA - OMA |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
55 |
X |
59 |
14,3/-14,3 |
-3,2/3,2 |
-20,7/20,7 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-16 |
THA - KGZ |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
68 |
1 |
46 |
18,9/-18,9 |
1,4/-1,4 |
-16,1/16,1 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-16 |
BFA - MTN |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
73 |
1 |
70 |
10,7/-10,7 |
-6,8/6,8 |
-24,3/24,3 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-16 |
MLI - RSA |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
68 |
1 |
58 |
14,5/-14,5 |
-3,0/3,0 |
-20,5/20,5 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-16 |
TUN - NAM |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
89 |
1 |
80 |
7,0/-7,0 |
-10,5/10,5 |
-28,0/28,0 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-16 |
HON - ISL |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
57 |
X |
48 |
2,6/-2,6 |
0,1/-0,1 |
-2,4/2,4 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-17 |
LIB - CHN |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
33 |
2 |
40 |
21,0/-21,0 |
3,5/-3,5 |
-14,0/14,0 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-17 |
TJK - QAT |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
80 |
2 |
30 |
24,4/-24,4 |
6,9/-6,9 |
-10,6/10,6 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-17 |
IND - UZB |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
9 |
2 |
34 |
23,0/-23,0 |
5,5/-5,5 |
-12,0/12,0 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-17 |
COD - ZAM |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
54 |
X |
57 |
15,0/-15,0 |
-2,5/2,5 |
-20,0/20,0 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-17 |
MAR - TAN |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
95 |
1 |
88 |
4,4/-4,4 |
-13,1/13,1 |
-30,6/30,6 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-18 |
SYR - AUS |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
10 |
2 |
23 |
27,0/-27,0 |
9,5/-9,5 |
-8,0/8,0 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-18 |
PLE - UAE |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
30 |
2 |
35 |
22,9/-22,9 |
5,4/-5,4 |
-12,1/12,1 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-18 |
CIV - NGA |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
69 |
1 |
47 |
18,5/-18,5 |
1,0/-1,0 |
-16,5/16,5 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-18 |
EQG - GNB |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
62 |
1 |
57 |
15,1/-15,1 |
-2,4/2,4 |
-19,9/19,9 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-18 |
EGY - GHA |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
70 |
1 |
63 |
12,8/-12,8 |
-4,7/4,7 |
-22,2/22,2 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-19 |
HKG - IRN |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
1 |
2 |
11 |
31,1/-31,1 |
13,6/-13,6 |
-3,9/3,9 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-19 |
IRQ - JPN |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
16 |
2 |
27 |
25,5/-25,5 |
8,0/-8,0 |
-9,5/9,5 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-19 |
VIE - IDN |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
69 |
1 |
67 |
11,7/-11,7 |
-5,8/5,8 |
-23,3/23,3 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-19 |
CPV - MOZ |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
67 |
1 |
65 |
12,4/-12,4 |
-5,1/5,1 |
-22,6/22,6 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-19 |
GUI - GAM |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
52 |
X |
63 |
12,9/-12,9 |
-4,6/4,6 |
-22,1/22,1 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-19 |
SEN - CMR |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
65 |
1 |
62 |
13,4/-13,4 |
-4,1/4,1 |
-21,6/21,6 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-19 |
UGA - KUW |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
64 |
1 |
64 |
1,8/-1,8 |
-0,7/0,7 |
-3,2/3,2 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-20 |
BHR - MAS |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
72 |
1 |
65 |
12,3/-12,3 |
-5,2/5,2 |
-22,7/22,7 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-20 |
JOR - KOR |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
16 |
2 |
26 |
26,0/-26,0 |
8,5/-8,5 |
-9,0/9,0 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-20 |
ALG - BFA |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
72 |
1 |
60 |
13,9/-13,9 |
-3,6/3,6 |
-21,1/21,1 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-20 |
MTN - ANG |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
51 |
X |
52 |
16,7/-16,7 |
-0,8/0,8 |
-18,3/18,3 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-20 |
TUN - MLI |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
66 |
1 |
57 |
15,1/-15,1 |
-2,4/2,4 |
-19,9/19,9 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-20 |
USA - SVN |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
73 |
1 |
71 |
1,4/-1,4 |
-1,1/1,1 |
-3,6/3,6 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-21 |
KGZ - KSA |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
11 |
2 |
30 |
24,6/-24,6 |
7,1/-7,1 |
-10,4/10,4 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-21 |
OMA - THA |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
72 |
1 |
63 |
13,0/-13,0 |
-4,5/4,5 |
-22,0/22,0 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-21 |
RSA - NAM |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
64 |
1 |
67 |
11,6/-11,6 |
-5,9/5,9 |
-23,4/23,4 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-21 |
MAR - COD |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
88 |
1 |
77 |
8,2/-8,2 |
-9,3/9,3 |
-26,8/26,8 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-21 |
ZAM - TAN |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
69 |
1 |
63 |
13,0/-13,0 |
-4,5/4,5 |
-22,0/22,0 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-22 |
QAT - CHN |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
75 |
1 |
62 |
13,5/-13,5 |
-4,0/4,0 |
-21,5/21,5 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-22 |
TJK - LIB |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
62 |
1 |
52 |
16,8/-16,8 |
-0,7/0,7 |
-18,2/18,2 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-22 |
EQG - CIV |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
81 |
2 |
31 |
24,0/-24,0 |
6,5/-6,5 |
-11,0/11,0 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-22 |
GNB - NGA |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
23 |
2 |
24 |
26,5/-26,5 |
9,0/-9,0 |
-8,5/8,5 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-22 |
CPV - EGY |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
23 |
2 |
32 |
23,8/-23,8 |
6,3/-6,3 |
-11,2/11,2 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-22 |
MOZ - GHA |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
25 |
2 |
31 |
24,2/-24,2 |
6,7/-6,7 |
-10,8/10,8 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-23 |
AUS - UZB |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
68 |
1 |
67 |
11,7/-11,7 |
-5,8/5,8 |
-23,3/23,3 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-23 |
SYR - IND |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
71 |
1 |
54 |
16,0/-16,0 |
-1,5/1,5 |
-19,0/19,0 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-23 |
HKG - PLE |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
15 |
2 |
35 |
22,8/-22,8 |
5,3/-5,3 |
-12,2/12,2 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-23 |
IRN - UAE |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
84 |
1 |
68 |
11,3/-11,3 |
-6,2/6,2 |
-23,7/23,7 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-23 |
GAM - CMR |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
22 |
2 |
22 |
27,2/-27,2 |
9,7/-9,7 |
-7,8/7,8 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-23 |
GUI - SEN |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
12 |
2 |
21 |
27,6/-27,6 |
10,1/-10,1 |
-7,4/7,4 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-23 |
ANG - BFA |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
25 |
2 |
28 |
25,2/-25,2 |
7,7/-7,7 |
-9,8/9,8 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-23 |
MTN - ALG |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
10 |
2 |
20 |
28,0/-28,0 |
10,5/-10,5 |
-7,0/7,0 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-24 |
IRQ - VIE |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
76 |
1 |
61 |
13,5/-13,5 |
-4,0/4,0 |
-21,5/21,5 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-24 |
JPN - IDN |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
98 |
1 |
91 |
3,2/-3,2 |
-14,3/14,3 |
-31,8/31,8 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-24 |
NAM - MLI |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
18 |
2 |
24 |
26,5/-26,5 |
9,0/-9,0 |
-8,5/8,5 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-24 |
RSA - TUN |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
17 |
2 |
32 |
23,7/-23,7 |
6,2/-6,2 |
-11,3/11,3 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-24 |
TAN - COD |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
27 |
2 |
31 |
24,2/-24,2 |
6,7/-6,7 |
-10,8/10,8 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-24 |
ZAM - MAR |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
11 |
2 |
19 |
28,3/-28,3 |
10,8/-10,8 |
-6,7/6,7 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-25 |
JOR - BHR |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
58 |
X |
50 |
17,6/-17,6 |
0,1/-0,1 |
-17,4/17,4 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-25 |
KOR - MAS |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
96 |
1 |
86 |
4,9/-4,9 |
-12,6/12,6 |
-30,1/30,1 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-25 |
KGZ - OMA |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
12 |
2 |
36 |
22,6/-22,6 |
5,1/-5,1 |
-12,4/12,4 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-25 |
KSA - THA |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
78 |
1 |
72 |
9,7/-9,7 |
-7,8/7,8 |
-25,3/25,3 |
||
|
Y |
2024-01-27 |
NGA - CMR |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
48 |
CMR pso win |
51 |
17,3/0,0 |
0,0/0,2 |
0,0/17,7 |
8,5/0,2 |
0,0/9,0 |
|
Y |
2024-01-27 |
ALG - ZAM |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
82 |
1 |
73 |
9,5/0,0 |
0,0/8,0 |
0,0/25,5 |
0,7/8,0 |
0,0/16,8 |
|
Y |
2024-01-28 |
CHN - UAE |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
35 |
2 |
42 |
20,3/0,0 |
2,8/0,0 |
0,0/14,7 |
11,5/0,0 |
2,8/6,0 |
|
Y |
2024-01-28 |
AUS - TJK |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
92 |
1 |
80 |
7,0/0,0 |
0,0/10,5 |
0,0/28,0 |
0,0/10,5 |
0,0/19,3 |
|
Y |
2024-01-28 |
TUN - BFA |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
76 |
1 |
63 |
12,8/0,0 |
0,0/4,7 |
0,0/22,2 |
4,0/4,7 |
0,0/13,5 |
|
Y |
2024-01-28 |
MAR - MLI |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
79 |
1 |
70 |
10,3/0,0 |
0,0/7,2 |
0,0/24,7 |
1,6/7,2 |
0,0/15,9 |
|
Y |
2024-01-29 |
QAT - VIE |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
81 |
1 |
69 |
10,8/0,0 |
0,0/6,7 |
0,0/24,2 |
2,1/6,7 |
0,0/15,4 |
|
Y |
2024-01-29 |
JPN - BHR |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
93 |
1 |
80 |
7,0/0,0 |
0,0/10,5 |
0,0/28,0 |
0,0/10,5 |
0,0/19,3 |
|
Y |
2024-01-29 |
CIV - RSA |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
84 |
1 |
63 |
12,8/0,0 |
0,0/4,7 |
0,0/22,2 |
4,0/4,7 |
0,0/13,5 |
|
Y |
2024-01-29 |
EGY - EQG |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
77 |
1 |
75 |
8,7/0,0 |
0,0/8,8 |
0,0/26,3 |
0,0/8,8 |
0,0/17,6 |
|
Y |
2024-01-30 |
UZB - OMA |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
60 |
UZB pso win |
51 |
17,3/0,0 |
0,0/0,2 |
0,0/17,7 |
8,5/0,2 |
0,0/9,0 |
|
Y |
2024-01-30 |
KSA - JOR |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
64 |
1 |
65 |
12,1/0,0 |
0,0/5,4 |
0,0/22,9 |
3,3/5,4 |
0,0/14,2 |
|
Y |
2024-01-30 |
SEN - CPV |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
83 |
1 |
75 |
8,7/0,0 |
0,0/8,8 |
0,0/26,3 |
0,0/8,8 |
0,0/17,6 |
|
Y |
2024-01-30 |
GHA - COD |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
54 |
GHA pso win |
52 |
16,7/0,0 |
0,0/0,8 |
0,0/18,3 |
8,0/0,8 |
0,0/9,5 |
|
Y |
2024-01-31 |
IRN - SYR |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
92 |
1 |
79 |
7,3/0,0 |
0,0/10,2 |
0,0/27,7 |
0,0/10,2 |
0,0/19,0 |
|
Y |
2024-01-31 |
KOR - IRQ |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
35 |
76 |
1 |
68 |
11,1/0,0 |
0,0/6,4 |
0,0/23,9 |
2,4/6,4 |
0,0/15,1 |
|
Y |
2024-02-02 |
UAE - JPN |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
40 |
11 |
2 |
27 |
29,2/0,0 |
9,2/0,0 |
0,0/10,8 |
19,2/0,0 |
9,2/0,8 |
|
Y |
2024-02-02 |
AUS - KSA |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
40 |
75 |
1 |
61 |
15,4/0,0 |
0,0/4,6 |
0,0/24,6 |
5,4/4,6 |
0,0/14,6 |
|
Y |
2024-02-02 |
EGY - MAR |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
40 |
31 |
2 |
38 |
25,0/0,0 |
5,0/0,0 |
0,0/15,0 |
15,0/0,0 |
5,0/5,0 |
|
Y |
2024-02-02 |
CMR - ALG |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
40 |
30 |
2 |
43 |
23,0/0,0 |
3,0/0,0 |
0,0/17,0 |
13,0/0,0 |
3,0/7,0 |
|
Y |
2024-02-02 |
CRC - SLV |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
82 |
1 |
62 |
1,9/-1,9 |
-0,6/0,6 |
-3,1/3,1 |
||
|
Y |
2024-02-03 |
QAT - UZB |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
40 |
52 |
QAT pso win |
57 |
17,0/0,0 |
0,0/3,0 |
0,0/23,0 |
7,0/3,0 |
0,0/13,0 |
|
Y |
2024-02-03 |
IRN - KOR |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
40 |
52 |
IRN pso win |
51 |
19,6/0,0 |
0,0/0,4 |
0,0/20,4 |
9,6/0,4 |
0,0/10,4 |
|
Y |
2024-02-03 |
GHA - CIV |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
40 |
80 |
2 |
40 |
24,2/0,0 |
4,2/0,0 |
0,0/15,8 |
14,2/0,0 |
4,2/5,8 |
|
Y |
2024-02-03 |
TUN - SEN |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
40 |
52 |
TUN pso win |
45 |
22,2/0,0 |
2,2/0,0 |
0,0/17,8 |
12,2/0,0 |
2,2/7,8 |
|
Y |
2024-02-06 |
JPN - AUS |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
40 |
64 |
1 |
57 |
17,4/0,0 |
0,0/2,6 |
0,0/22,6 |
7,4/2,6 |
0,0/12,6 |
|
Y |
2024-02-07 |
IRN - QAT |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
40 |
25 |
1 |
64 |
14,4/0,0 |
0,0/5,6 |
0,0/25,6 |
4,4/5,6 |
0,0/15,6 |
|
Y |
2024-02-07 |
ALG - MAR |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
40 |
35 |
2 |
38 |
24,9/0,0 |
4,9/0,0 |
0,0/15,1 |
14,9/0,0 |
4,9/5,1 |
|
Y |
2024-02-07 |
CIV - TUN |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
40 |
51 |
CIV pso win |
44 |
22,6/0,0 |
2,6/0,0 |
0,0/17,4 |
12,6/0,0 |
2,6/7,4 |
|
Y |
2024-02-10 |
JPN - IRN |
AFC Nations Cup 2023 |
40 |
63 |
1 |
55 |
17,9/0,0 |
0,0/2,1 |
0,0/22,1 |
7,9/2,1 |
0,0/12,1 |
|
Y |
2024-02-10 |
ALG - TUN |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
40 |
47 |
TUN pso win |
49 |
20,3/0,0 |
0,3/0,0 |
0,0/19,7 |
10,3/0,0 |
0,3/9,7 |
|
Y |
2024-02-11 |
MAR - CIV |
CAF Nations Cup 2023 |
40 |
34 |
1 |
68 |
12,9/0,0 |
0,0/7,1 |
0,0/27,1 |
2,9/7,1 |
0,0/17,1 |
Here are the prediction success rates of all matches in the year 2023 and for each published ranking in 2023. I give the success rate when predicting with the elo win expectancy and the success rate when predicting with the FIFA win expectancy. Only matches where both win expectancies can be calculated, are included.
Beside the totals, a distinction is further made for competitive (I-factor > 10) and non-competitive 'friendly' matches (I-factor <= 10).
|
period |
ELO_tot |
ELO_fr |
ELO_comp |
FIFA_tot |
FIFA_fr |
FIFA_comp |
N_tot |
N_fr |
N_comp |
|
2023 |
58,7% |
56,6% |
60,4% |
50,5% |
45,1% |
54,6% |
1023 |
435 |
588 |
|
apr-2023 |
57,6% |
51,3% |
66,1% |
50,2% |
41,6% |
61,7% |
269 |
154 |
115 |
|
jul-2023 |
59,8% |
61,6% |
57,7% |
50,7% |
50,4% |
51,0% |
229 |
125 |
104 |
|
sep-2023 |
53,3% |
46,2% |
57,8% |
45,5% |
38,5% |
50,0% |
167 |
65 |
102 |
|
okt-2023 |
63,6% |
67,6% |
60,6% |
52,0% |
48,6% |
54,5% |
173 |
74 |
99 |
|
nov-2023 |
61,4% |
76,2% |
59,5% |
55,0% |
57,1% |
54,8% |
189 |
21 |
168 |
|
dec-2023 |
72,7% |
72,7% |
0,0% |
27,3% |
27,3% |
0,0% |
11 |
11 |
0 |
In general you can see that elo performed some 8 percent-points better than FIFA in 2023. There are several factors that could explain this difference. The most important ones are:
- elo incorporates home field advantage in their formula for the win expectancy, FIFA doesn't;
- elo applies a strict zero-sum approach, FIFA doesn't;
- the match type weights and the scaling factor in the win expectancy calculation used by elo are better than what FIFA uses;
- when FIFA started with the elo-based calculation of the FIFA ranking in June 2018 the starting points of each team for the new calculation were then determined only on the ranking positions from the May 2018 ranking, not on the points differences between teams in that ranking. I think it will take quite some more time before the gaps in FIFA-points between teams will reflect the 'true' strength of teams better than currently is the case with the FIFA ranking. That is, if the current FIFA calculation method assumptions don't prevent that from happening at all.
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
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