Copa America 2024 simulations (February 2024)

In 2024 five of the six confederations have scheduled their continental championship for national teams. Here's number four in this series of simulation reports: North, Central and South America.

The Copa America 2024 was initially intended as the continental championship of South America, edition number 48 of this oldest continental championship in the football world. However, in January 2023 a new strategic partnership was signed between CONMEBOL and CONCACAF and with that came a second combined 'Copa of the Americas' (after the Copa America Centenario in 2016). Again 6 CONCACAF teams (besides the 10 CONMEBOL members) were able to qualify for the tournament. It will be hosted by the United States. It is yet unknown if this one is the first of a combined Americas Cup from now on.

Qualification of the six CONCACAF teams was possible by introducing a new quarter final round for four league A teams in the CONCACAF Nations League 2023/24 plus the four highest ranked CONCACAF teams who received a bye to these quarter finals. 

The four quarter final winners (USA, Mexico, Panama and Jamaica) qualified, while the four losers (Canada, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica and Honduras) will play this March in two one-off play-offs against each other for the final two CONCACAF berths.

The Copa America 2024 kicks off on Thursday June 20th and lasts until the final on Sunday July 14th. It has the 'classic' 16-team schedule: 4 groups of 4 teams and a knock-out stage starting with quarter finals for which the numbers one and two from each group qualify.

The complete tournament schedule plus all relevant matches in the upcoming March window are simulated: 

- already scheduled friendlies with CONMEBOL or CONCACAF teams involved

- the CONCACAF Nations League 2023/24 Final Four

- the two final qualification play-offs. 

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

First, the CONCACAF Nations League 2023/24 Final Four win probabilities for the semi finals, the third place play-off and the final. The Final Four is also hosted by the USA:

team	SF	po3	final
USA	79,68	12,74	49,86
Mexico	58,52	26,32	26,23
Panama	41,48	34,41	17,06
Jamaica	20,32	26,53	6,85

Then the two one-off qualification play-offs between Canada and Trinidad and Tobago and between Costa Rica and Honduras. The probability to qualify for the final tournament:

team	Q
Canada	82,35
Costa Rica	62,77
Honduras	37,23
Trinidad and Tobago	17,65

Then the group stage of the final tournament, with teams ordered by ascending average group position in the last column. The group stage draw was already in December last year:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Argentina	92,34	6,61	0,88	0,17	1,09
Peru	3,71	38,85	32,78	24,66	2,78
Chile	2,09	29,36	35,00	33,55	3,00
Canada	1,81	24,28	28,18	28,08
Trinidad and Tobago	0,05	0,90	3,16	13,54
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Ecuador	49,58	27,76	16,14	6,52	1,80
Mexico	25,18	31,11	27,84	15,87	2,34
Venezuela	19,51	28,36	31,07	21,06	2,54
Jamaica	5,73	12,77	24,95	56,55	3,32
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Uruguay	62,51	27,07	8,49	1,93	1,50
USA	27,46	41,48	23,07	7,99	2,12
Panama	7,79	21,78	42,26	28,17	2,91
Bolivia	2,24	9,67	26,18	61,91	3,48
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Brazil	52,24	38,74	7,79	1,23	1,58
Colombia	43,37	44,42	10,07	2,14	1,71
Paraguay	3,50	12,02	52,91	31,57	3,13
Costa Rica	0,78	4,04	20,74	37,21
Honduras	0,11	0,78	8,49	27,85

Then the knock-out stage, starting with the quarter finals

team	QF
Argentina	98,95
Brazil	90,98
Uruguay	89,58
Colombia	87,79
Ecuador	77,34
USA	68,94
Mexico	56,29
Venezuela	47,87
Peru	42,56
Chile	31,45
Panama	29,57
Canada	26,09
Jamaica	18,50
Paraguay	15,52
Bolivia	11,91
Costa Rica	4,82
Trinidad and Tobago	0,95
Honduras	0,89

The probability to qualify for the semi finals. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the quarter finals.

team	SF
Argentina	86,01		[86,92]
Brazil	55,31		[60,79]
Colombia	50,39		[57,40]
Uruguay	49,36		[55,10]
Ecuador	39,10		[50,56]
USA	30,59		[44,37]
Mexico	20,22		[35,92]
Peru	15,93		[37,43]
Venezuela	14,56		[30,42]
Chile	10,75		[34,18]
Canada	9,56		[36,64]
Panama	7,23		[24,45]
Paraguay	4,43		[28,54]
Jamaica	3,67		[19,84]
Bolivia	1,61		[13,52]
Costa Rica	0,99		[20,54]
Trinidad and Tobago	0,20		[21,05]
Honduras	0,09		[10,11]

The probability to qualify for the final or the third place play-off. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the semi finals.

team	Final				Po3
Argentina	72,06		[83,78]		13,95		[16,22]
Brazil	30,36		[54,89]		24,95		[45,11]
Uruguay	27,75		[56,22]		21,61		[43,78]
Colombia	25,59		[50,78]		24,80		[49,22]
USA	12,99		[42,46]		17,60		[57,54]
Ecuador	12,42		[31,76]		26,68		[68,24]
Mexico	5,79		[28,64]		14,43		[71,36]
Venezuela	3,32		[22,80]		11,24		[77,20]
Peru	2,54		[15,94]		13,39		[84,06]
Panama	1,93		[26,69]		5,30		[73,31]
Canada	1,73		[18,10]		7,83		[81,90]
Chile	1,61		[14,98]		9,14		[85,02]
Paraguay	0,99		[22,35]		3,44		[77,65]
Jamaica	0,53		[14,44]		3,14		[85,56]
Bolivia	0,22		[13,66]		1,39		[86,34]
Costa Rica	0,16		[16,16]		0,83		[83,84]
Honduras	0,01		[11,11]		0,08		[88,89]
Trinidad and Tobago	0,00		[00,00]		0,20		[100,00]

The probability to win the Copa America 2024 or the third place play-off. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for respectively the final and the third place play-off.

team	Winner				Win po3
Argentina	46,30		[64,25]		9,50		[68,10]
Brazil	13,89		[45,75]		16,57		[66,41]
Uruguay	12,62		[45,48]		14,71		[68,07]
Colombia	11,37		[44,43]		15,41		[62,14]
USA	5,55		[42,73]		10,11		[57,44]
Ecuador	5,10		[41,06]		11,58		[43,40]
Mexico	1,90		[32,82]		5,29		[36,66]
Venezuela	0,86		[25,90]		3,83		[34,07]
Peru	0,63		[24,80]		3,59		[26,81]
Panama	0,48		[24,87]		2,28		[43,02]
Chile	0,48		[29,81]		2,20		[24,07]
Canada	0,43		[24,86]		2,31		[29,50]
Paraguay	0,19		[19,19]		1,32		[38,37]
Jamaica	0,15		[28,30]		0,68		[21,66]
Bolivia	0,03		[13,64]		0,34		[24,46]
Costa Rica	0,02		[12,50]		0,27		[32,53]
Honduras	0,00		[00,00]		0,01		[12,50]
Trinidad and Tobago	0,00		[00,00]		0,00		[00,00]

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