FIFA will publish the February ranking this Thursday February 15th. The Asian and African Cup of Nations, played last month in Qatar and Cote d'Ivoire respectively, both left their mark on this ranking.
The Asian Cup was won by host Qatar yesterday for a second consecutive time. In the final against Jordan they needed three penalties (all correctly given, according to people who saw the match) to win 3:1.
The African Cup (with a buck load of surprises throughout the month) will see the final tonight between host Cote d'Ivoire and Nigeria. This is how the points and positions of both teams could change in the ranking:
|
CIV |
|
NGA |
||
result |
pts |
pos |
|
pts |
pos |
CIV win |
1494,515 |
39 |
1522,195 |
28 |
|
CIV PSO win |
1484,515 |
42 |
1522,195 |
28 |
|
NGA PSO win |
1474,515 |
44 |
1530,298 |
27 |
|
NGA win |
1472,618 |
45 |
1540,298 |
26 |
Elo predicts a draw after extra time with the host prevailing after a penalty shoot-out.
Three teams will reach a new high in this ranking:
Senegal (17 - 18 in February 2022)
Qatar (35 - 42 in August 2021)
Tajikistan (99 - 106 in July 2013)
Best movers:
24 - Angola
23 - Qatar
16 - Jordan
Worst movers:
-15 - India, Guinea-Bissau
-13 - Algeria, Vietnam
Best movers in the top 50:
23 - Qatar
14 - Nigeria
7 - Cote d'Ivoire
Worst movers in the top 50:
-13 - Algeria
-12 - Tunisia
-4 - Egypt
Stay safe and healthy everybody !
pos Feb. |
team |
pts Feb. |
+/- pos |
+/- pts |
1 |
Argentina |
1855,20 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
France |
1845,44 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
England |
1800,05 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
Belgium |
1798,46 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
Brazil |
1784,09 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
Netherlands |
1745,48 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
Portugal |
1745,06 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
Spain |
1732,64 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
Italy |
1718,82 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
Croatia |
1717,57 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
Uruguay |
1666,00 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
Morocco |
1663,91 |
1 |
2,22 |
13 |
USA |
1661,70 |
-1 |
-3,57 |
14 |
Colombia |
1655,29 |
0 |
0 |
15 |
Mexico |
1652,70 |
0 |
0 |
16 |
Germany |
1631,22 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
Senegal |
1621,38 |
3 |
27,07 |
18 |
Japan |
1615,20 |
-1 |
-4,99 |
19 |
Switzerland |
1613,44 |
-1 |
0 |
20 |
Denmark |
1601,31 |
-1 |
0 |
21 |
Iran |
1600,37 |
0 |
35,29 |
22 |
Korea Republic |
1566,24 |
1 |
15,59 |
23 |
Australia |
1554,87 |
2 |
15,65 |
24 |
Ukraine |
1553,35 |
-2 |
0 |
25 |
Austria |
1546,10 |
-1 |
0 |
26 |
Sweden |
1531,13 |
0 |
0,94 |
27 |
Hungary |
1525,13 |
0 |
0 |
28 |
Nigeria |
1522,20 |
14 |
47,76 |
29 |
Wales |
1521,88 |
0 |
0 |
30 |
Poland |
1520,24 |
1 |
0 |
31 |
Ecuador |
1519,20 |
1 |
0 |
32 |
Serbia |
1517,43 |
2 |
0 |
33 |
Peru |
1512,68 |
2 |
0 |
34 |
Scotland |
1506,89 |
2 |
0 |
35 |
Qatar |
1506,57 |
23 |
99,27 |
36 |
Turkey |
1505,28 |
1 |
0 |
37 |
Egypt |
1500,38 |
-4 |
-18,53 |
38 |
Russia |
1498,84 |
0 |
0 |
39 |
Czech Republic |
1494,04 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
Tunisia |
1489,86 |
-12 |
-33,37 |
41 |
Chile |
1489,82 |
-1 |
0 |
42 |
Cote d'Ivoire |
1484,51 |
7 |
36,86 |
43 |
Algeria |
1480,28 |
-13 |
-39,98 |
44 |
Panama |
1475,62 |
-3 |
0 |
45 |
Romania |
1472,73 |
-2 |
0 |
46 |
Norway |
1472,36 |
-2 |
0 |
47 |
Mali |
1469,76 |
4 |
24,16 |
48 |
Slovakia |
1465,73 |
-3 |
0 |
49 |
Greece |
1453,95 |
-2 |
0 |
50 |
Canada |
1453,76 |
-2 |
0 |
51 |
Cameroon |
1451,86 |
-5 |
-11,20 |
52 |
Venezuela |
1447,20 |
-2 |
0 |
53 |
Saudi Arabia |
1442,74 |
3 |
21,68 |
54 |
Costa Rica |
1439,46 |
-2 |
1,89 |
55 |
Slovenia |
1431,40 |
-1 |
3,56 |
56 |
Paraguay |
1430,73 |
-3 |
0 |
57 |
Jamaica |
1421,54 |
-2 |
0 |
58 |
Iraq |
1409,33 |
5 |
43,35 |
59 |
South Africa |
1409,10 |
7 |
52,02 |
60 |
Finland |
1401,31 |
-1 |
0 |
61 |
Burkina Faso |
1400,38 |
-4 |
-10,63 |
62 |
Republic of Ireland |
1399,60 |
-2 |
0 |
63 |
Congo DR |
1386,41 |
4 |
29,74 |
64 |
Albania |
1382,69 |
-2 |
0 |
65 |
Cape Verde Islands |
1377,05 |
8 |
47,25 |
66 |
Uzbekistan |
1376,86 |
2 |
31,60 |
67 |
Ghana |
1362,56 |
-6 |
-21,63 |
68 |
North Macedonia |
1362,17 |
-3 |
0 |
69 |
United Arab Emirates |
1355,52 |
-5 |
-8,94 |
70 |
Bosnia-Herzegovina |
1343,32 |
-1 |
0 |
71 |
Jordan |
1343,04 |
16 |
70,41 |
72 |
Montenegro |
1342,64 |
-2 |
0 |
73 |
Iceland |
1342,57 |
-2 |
4,18 |
74 |
Northern Ireland |
1333,17 |
-2 |
0 |
75 |
Israel |
1323,43 |
0 |
0 |
76 |
Guinea |
1320,41 |
4 |
30,40 |
77 |
Georgia |
1312,45 |
0 |
0 |
78 |
Honduras |
1311,43 |
-2 |
-2,37 |
79 |
Equatorial Guinea |
1310,50 |
9 |
42,07 |
80 |
Oman |
1307,67 |
-6 |
-17,22 |
81 |
El Salvador |
1304,26 |
-3 |
-1,88 |
82 |
Bahrain |
1297,32 |
4 |
20,03 |
83 |
Bulgaria |
1289,90 |
-2 |
0 |
84 |
Gabon |
1289,52 |
-2 |
0 |
85 |
Luxembourg |
1285,41 |
-2 |
0 |
86 |
Bolivia |
1284,55 |
-1 |
0 |
87 |
Zambia |
1276,41 |
-3 |
-8,15 |
88 |
China PR |
1273,80 |
-9 |
-25,69 |
89 |
Syria |
1265,06 |
2 |
19,79 |
90 |
Haiti |
1262,50 |
-1 |
0 |
91 |
Curacao |
1262,48 |
-1 |
0 |
92 |
Uganda |
1246,88 |
0 |
1,80 |
93 |
Angola |
1238,19 |
24 |
70,14 |
94 |
Armenia |
1237,15 |
-1 |
0 |
95 |
Belarus |
1232,80 |
0 |
0 |
96 |
Trinidad and Tobago |
1228,05 |
0 |
0 |
97 |
Palestine |
1226,30 |
2 |
8,70 |
98 |
Benin |
1225,10 |
-1 |
0 |
99 |
Tajikistan |
1220,46 |
7 |
25,39 |
100 |
Kazakhstan |
1215,16 |
0 |
0 |
101 |
Thailand |
1206,79 |
12 |
30,04 |
102 |
Kosovo |
1202,77 |
-1 |
0 |
103 |
Kyrgyzstan |
1197,72 |
-5 |
-26,42 |
104 |
New Zealand |
1197,47 |
0 |
0 |
105 |
Mauritania |
1195,77 |
0 |
0,52 |
106 |
Namibia |
1192,97 |
9 |
24,59 |
107 |
Vietnam |
1192,15 |
-13 |
-43,43 |
108 |
Guatemala |
1188,17 |
0 |
-1,81 |
109 |
Madagascar |
1187,63 |
0 |
0 |
110 |
Mozambique |
1185,67 |
1 |
4,96 |
111 |
Kenya |
1181,92 |
-1 |
0 |
112 |
Congo |
1179,80 |
0 |
0 |
113 |
Azerbaijan |
1174,22 |
1 |
0 |
114 |
Lebanon |
1169,34 |
-7 |
-23,24 |
115 |
Korea DPR |
1168,12 |
1 |
0 |
116 |
Togo |
1165,74 |
2 |
0 |
117 |
India |
1165,27 |
-15 |
-35,53 |
118 |
Guinea-Bissau |
1164,01 |
-15 |
-33,82 |
119 |
Libya |
1161,55 |
1 |
6,32 |
120 |
Tanzania |
1160,95 |
1 |
5,76 |
121 |
Comoros |
1156,45 |
-2 |
0 |
122 |
Malawi |
1149,40 |
1 |
0 |
123 |
Estonia |
1148,76 |
-1 |
-0,94 |
124 |
Zimbabwe |
1144,56 |
0 |
0 |
125 |
Cyprus |
1143,42 |
0 |
0 |
126 |
Sierra Leone |
1136,77 |
1 |
-1,76 |
127 |
Sudan |
1128,74 |
1 |
0 |
128 |
Niger |
1127,04 |
1 |
-0,71 |
129 |
Central African Republic |
1121,34 |
2 |
0 |
130 |
Gambia |
1114,79 |
-4 |
-25,27 |
131 |
Solomon Islands |
1113,57 |
1 |
0 |
132 |
Malaysia |
1110,68 |
-2 |
-12,19 |
133 |
Rwanda |
1107,04 |
0 |
0 |
134 |
Nicaragua |
1104,26 |
0 |
0 |
135 |
Faroe Islands |
1102,10 |
0 |
0 |
136 |
Latvia |
1097,84 |
1 |
0 |
137 |
Kuwait |
1094,06 |
-1 |
-4,01 |
138 |
Lithuania |
1086,93 |
0 |
0 |
139 |
Philippines |
1086,17 |
1 |
0 |
140 |
Burundi |
1085,83 |
-1 |
-0,79 |
141 |
Turkmenistan |
1078,25 |
0 |
0 |
142 |
Antigua and Barbuda |
1072,66 |
0 |
0 |
143 |
Suriname |
1071,85 |
0 |
0 |
144 |
Indonesia |
1070,11 |
2 |
6,10 |
145 |
Ethiopia |
1068,79 |
-1 |
0 |
146 |
Botswana |
1065,06 |
-1 |
0,56 |
147 |
St. Kitts and Nevis |
1057,05 |
0 |
0 |
148 |
Lesotho |
1046,74 |
0 |
-0,53 |
149 |
Eswatini |
1045,88 |
0 |
0 |
150 |
Dominican Republic |
1040,77 |
1 |
0 |
151 |
Yemen |
1027,94 |
1 |
0 |
152 |
Liberia |
1024,11 |
1 |
0 |
153 |
Chinese Taipei |
1023,93 |
1 |
0 |
154 |
Moldova |
1022,60 |
1 |
0 |
155 |
Singapore |
1020,50 |
1 |
0 |
156 |
Hong Kong |
1020,34 |
-6 |
-22,59 |
157 |
Guyana |
1018,14 |
0 |
0 |
158 |
Afghanistan |
1017,68 |
0 |
0 |
159 |
New Caledonia |
1008,92 |
0 |
0 |
160 |
Puerto Rico |
1007,19 |
0 |
0 |
161 |
Maldives |
1003,48 |
0 |
0 |
162 |
Myanmar |
1000,46 |
0 |
0 |
163 |
Tahiti |
999,48 |
0 |
0 |
164 |
Andorra |
998,00 |
0 |
0 |
165 |
Papua New Guinea |
990,61 |
0 |
0 |
166 |
South Sudan |
989,29 |
0 |
0 |
167 |
St. Lucia |
988,67 |
0 |
0 |
168 |
Fiji |
981,26 |
0 |
0 |
169 |
Cuba |
980,65 |
0 |
0 |
170 |
Vanuatu |
980,33 |
0 |
0 |
171 |
Bermuda |
972,36 |
0 |
0 |
172 |
Malta |
967,29 |
0 |
0 |
173 |
St. Vincent and the Grenadines |
953,47 |
0 |
0 |
174 |
Grenada |
950,99 |
0 |
0 |
175 |
Nepal |
948,05 |
0 |
0 |
176 |
Montserrat |
946,08 |
0 |
0 |
177 |
Mauritius |
944,95 |
0 |
0 |
178 |
Barbados |
943,80 |
0 |
0 |
179 |
Cambodia |
930,78 |
0 |
-0,69 |
180 |
Dominica |
922,25 |
0 |
0 |
181 |
Chad |
920,37 |
0 |
0 |
182 |
Belize |
918,68 |
0 |
0 |
183 |
Bangladesh |
916,75 |
0 |
0 |
184 |
Bhutan |
913,02 |
0 |
0 |
185 |
Cook Islands |
897,30 |
0 |
0 |
186 |
Samoa |
896,78 |
0 |
0 |
187 |
Macau |
896,62 |
0 |
0 |
188 |
American Samoa |
890,97 |
0 |
0 |
189 |
Laos |
889,62 |
0 |
0 |
190 |
Mongolia |
889,16 |
0 |
0 |
191 |
Sao Tomé e PrÃncipe |
888,94 |
0 |
0 |
192 |
Djibouti |
882,76 |
0 |
1,58 |
193 |
Aruba |
879,32 |
0 |
0 |
194 |
Brunei Darussalam |
870,63 |
0 |
0 |
195 |
Pakistan |
856,54 |
0 |
0 |
196 |
Tonga |
856,18 |
0 |
0 |
197 |
Cayman Islands |
851,19 |
0 |
0 |
198 |
Somalia |
845,66 |
0 |
0 |
199 |
Seychelles |
845,53 |
0 |
0 |
200 |
Timor-Leste |
843,40 |
0 |
0 |
201 |
Gibraltar |
840,80 |
0 |
0 |
202 |
Bahamas |
835,81 |
0 |
0 |
203 |
Liechtenstein |
833,01 |
0 |
0 |
204 |
Sri Lanka |
822,03 |
0 |
0 |
205 |
Guam |
821,91 |
0 |
0 |
206 |
Turks and Caicos Islands |
818,57 |
0 |
0 |
207 |
British Virgin Islands |
807,57 |
0 |
0 |
208 |
US Virgin Islands |
796,78 |
0 |
0 |
209 |
Anguilla |
785,69 |
0 |
0 |
210 |
San Marino |
741,61 |
0 |
0 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
These rankings won't affect any draws I believe, right? Most WC qualifying draws are done, and UEFA and OFC won't happen for a while I believe, and no other competitions in between to draw for, I think.
ReplyDeleteIndeed Alex,
ReplyDeleteFIFA has announced that it will publish rankings on April 4th and June 20th (after the June window but excluding the then already started EURO, Copa America and OFC Nations Cup). I expect a further official ranking published right after those three continental final tournaments are finished (July 18th ?).
WC draw OFC: July this year (after OFC Nations Cup) probably using that July ranking.
WC draw UEFA: December this year (after UNL group stage has finished and UNL play-offs are drawn ultimo November).
CONCACAF starts this March with stage 1: two knock-out home-and-away matches. The single round robin group stage 2 is already drawn and the 4 match days will be played in June 2024 and June 2025. In September 2025 starts group stage 3, with a separate draw, probably in July 2025.
Underway are:
AFC stage 2 (group stage): MD2 from 6 until June 2024. Group stage 3 will start in September with a separate draw in July this year, probably using the June ranking.
CONMEBOL (group stage): MD6 from 18 until September 2025.
CAF stage 2 (group stage): MD2 from 10 until October 2025.
In the coming weeks I will give simulation updates on World Cup qualification in all scheduled confederations and for the 3 continental final tournaments in June, but with final qualification play-offs for those tournaments to be played this March.
OFC stage allocation used December 2022 ranking?
Delete*2023
DeleteOFC stage allocation ? The OFC Cup of Nations 2024 qualification stage, to be played this March, between the 4 lowest ranked OFC-teams was based on the December 2023 ranking. Ultimately American Samoa did not enter the tournament, so Samoa, Tonga and the Cook Islands play a single round robin qualification group stage.
DeleteOooo turns out it will be used for 2025 AFCON qualifying first round seeding!!
DeleteYeah, as always CAF's draw information is given just-in-time.
DeleteThe group stage draw (12 groups of 4 teams) for the AFCON 2025 will probably be staged somewhere in April (after the March window).
Why tanzania always 120 despite efforts 😟😟
ReplyDeleteTanzania is now back at 119, you mean :)
DeleteSince they rapidly dropped from 120 to 147 in Autumn 2017, Tanzania has camped more than 5 years below position 130 until last June. Tanzania is in a good spell at the moment and held two much higher ranked opponents -Zambia and Congo DR- to a draw at the AFCON.
Let's see if they can continue that form in their World Cup qualification group with Morocco, Zambia, Niger and Congo.
Remarkable as always, but at the same time completely expected because it's FIFA after all! They include the following matches where more than 6 substitutes used:
ReplyDelete2024-01-06 Cote d'Ivoire 5-1 Sierra Leone (home team used 11 substitutes)
2024-01-06 Dem Rep Congo 0-0 Angola (both teams used 8 substitutes)
2024-01-06 Mali 6-2 Guinea-Bissau (both teams used 8 substitutes)
2024-01-12 Sweden 2-1 Estonia (Sweden used 9, Estonia 9 substitutes)
It is much more likely and logical that the Libya 4-0 Indonesia (2024-01-02) match was excluded and the Libya 2-1 Indonesia (2024-01-05) match included in the ranking because for the former both teams used 11 substitutes, and for the latter they kept to the max-6-substitute rule. So I counter that the match on 2024-01-05 was excluded.
ReplyDeletePersonally when deciding to include/exclude friendlies beforehand I don't pay attention to any match report.
ReplyDeleteYou gave plenty of examples already where apparently this max-6-substitute rule isn't as strictly applied as we all would like, so for me that's a reason to not apply this rule at all before a ranking is published.
I agree though that it's more likely that the Jan 2 match is excluded instead of the Jan 5 match, given the number of substitutes in each match. And the ranking points calculation of both teams (or any team in the ranking for that matter) won't be influenced by this switch.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteReally? You don't consult the post-match report of matches yet to be played? Anyway, I wasn't referring to your post, merely stating that FIFA had included matches where the rule should have been applied, and may still be for future rankings. As for the examples I gave, that doesn't mean the rule isn't "strictly applied", it is most likely that FIFA haven't got the official match report yet, or the two associations both agreed to waive the rule beforehand, for which I think there's also examples of in the past.
ReplyDelete