OFC Cup of Nations 2024 simulations (February 2024)

In 2024 five of the six confederations have scheduled their continental championship for national teams. Here's number three in this series of simulation reports: Oceania.

The OFC Cup of Nations 2024 is the first continental final tournament in 8 years. The 2020 edition was first postponed and later in 2021 completely cancelled because of the strict COVID-19 measures in the Pacific island area. New Zealand was appointed to host that version.

The 2024 version now is hosted in Vanuatu and will be played from 15 to 30 June 2024. A separate qualification stage in March is played in Tonga between the four lowest ranked OFC-nations in the December 2023 ranking. This to decide one team that qualifies for the group stage proper.

Of the 4 lowest ranked teams American Samoa withdrew, so a single round robin group stage is played between Samoa, Cook Islands and host Tonga.

The group stage in June consists of two groups of four teams. The composition of the groups has been drawn last month.

After the group stage a knock-out stage follows with (cross) semi-finals between the numbers one and two from each group, a third place play-off and the final.
Also a fifth and a seventh place play-off is scheduled, between respectively the numbers three of each group and the numbers four of each group.

The complete tournament schedule is simulated. Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

First the qualification group stage with teams ordered by ascending average group position in the last column:

qualification group	1st	2nd	3rd		avg
Samoa	36,11	33,40	30,49		1,94
Cook Islands	33,50	33,33	33,17		2,00
Tonga	30,39	33,27	36,34		2,06

That promises to be a tight affair, according to elo :)

Then the group stage of the final tournament with teams ordered by ascending average group position in the last column:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
New Zealand	71,27	19,20	7,04	2,49	1,41
Solomon Islands	14,41	34,21	29,05	22,33	2,59
New Caledonia	7,13	23,83	32,68	36,36	2,98
Vanuatu	7,19	22,76	31,23	38,82	3,02
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Fiji	42,65	32,99	23,58	0,78	1,82
Tahiti	35,76	36,69	26,46	1,09	1,93
Papua New Guinea	21,46	29,85	45,35	3,34	2,31
Cook Islands	0,08	0,18	1,86	31,38
Samoa	0,05	0,26	2,29	33,51
Tonga	0,00	0,03	0,46	29,90

Then the knock-out stage. 

First the probabilities to qualify for the semi finals, the 5th place play-off and the 7th place play-off:

team	SF	po5	po7
New Zealand	90,47	7,04	2,49
Fiji	75,64	23,58	0,78
Tahiti	72,45	26,46	1,09
Papua New Guinea	51,31	45,35	3,34
Solomon Islands	48,62	29,05	22,33
New Caledonia	30,96	32,68	36,36
Vanuatu	29,95	31,23	38,82
Samoa	0,31	2,29	33,51
Cook Islands	0,26	1,86	31,38
Tonga	0,03	0,46	29,90

Then the probabilities to qualify for the final and 3rd place play-off. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the semi finals:

team	Final				Po3
New Zealand	79,47		[87,84]		11,00		[12,16]
Solomon Islands	32,80		[67,46]		15,82		[32,54]
Fiji	22,81		[30,16]		52,83		[69,84]
Tahiti	19,28		[26,61]		53,17		[73,39]
New Caledonia	18,48		[59,69]		12,48		[40,31]
Vanuatu	17,42		[58,16]		12,53		[41,84]
Papua New Guinea	9,73		[18,96]		41,58		[81,04]
Cook Islands	0,01		[03,85]		0,25		[96,15]
Samoa	0,00		[00,00]		0,31		[100,00]
Tonga	0,00		[00,00]		0,03		[100,00]

And the probabilities to win the OFC Nations Cup (and succeed the last champ New Zealand) or to become the tournament number three. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the final or po3 respectively:

team	Winner				po3-w
New Zealand	62,02		[78,04]		8,64		[78,55]
Solomon Islands	12,06		[36,77]		9,82		[62,07]
Fiji	6,47		[28,36]		26,83		[50,79]
Vanuatu	6,02		[34,56]		7,18		[57,30]
New Caledonia	5,76		[31,17]		6,92		[55,45]
Tahiti	5,43		[28,16]		24,99		[47,00]
Papua New Guinea	2,23		[22,92]		15,52		[37,33]
Cook Islands	0,01		[100,00]		0,04		[16,00]
Samoa	0,00		[00,00]		0,05		[16,13]
Tonga	0,00		[00,00]		0,01		[33,33]

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.