Qualification World Cup 2026 10.000 simulations (March 2024)

In the qualification tournaments for the World Cup 2026 only Asia continues their group stage in the upcoming March window. Africa and South America have a break until respectively June and September. 

North and Central America and the Caribbean will start their qualification campaign with a first stage this March, consisting of two home-and-away play-offs between the four lowest ranked teams. The two winners will progress to stage 2 and join the 28 teams who got a bye, in a group stage with a single round robin format, starting in June. The draw for the first two stages was staged last January with a seeding based on the December 2023 ranking.

The qualification format and schedule for OFC was also revealed a short while ago. They will play their first stage in September: two semi finals and a final, hosted by Samoa, between the four lowest ranked teams. Then in October and November 8 teams (the 7 teams who got a bye and the stage one winner) in 2 groups play a single round robin group stage. The draw for these stages will be in July, with seeding probably based on the July 2024 ranking.

Then in March next year stage 3 is played between the group numbers one and two, consisting of two one-off semi finals and a final, to decide which team takes the OFC berth at the World Cup. The losing finalist qualifies for the interconfederational play-offs in March 2026.

See for a description of the qualifying formats per confederation and first simulation results of CONMEBOL and AFC before the start of their qualification here and for CAF here.

I've simulated the complete scheduled group stage qualification for CONMEBOL, AFC and CAF, together with the first two stages for CONCACAF.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

AFC

In Asia stage 1 (10 play-offs) was played in October and the first two match days in the groups in stage 2 were played in November. The group results with teams ordered by average group position, indicated in the last avg column:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Qatar	93,85	5,05	1,10	0,00	1,07
India	2,79	48,97	45,31	2,93	2,48
Kuwait	3,36	45,31	49,35	1,98	2,50
Afghanistan	0,00	0,67	4,24	95,09	3,94
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Japan	99,53	0,47	0,00	0,00	1,00
Syria	0,42	74,95	24,34	0,29	2,25
Korea DPR	0,05	24,51	74,95	0,49	2,76
Myanmar	0,00	0,07	0,71	99,22	3,99
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Korea Republic	96,07	3,44	0,49	0,00	1,04
China PR	1,99	53,13	40,61	4,27	2,47
Thailand	1,94	42,53	53,44	2,09	2,56
Singapore	0,00	0,90	5,46	93,64	3,93
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Oman	60,20	26,89	12,83	0,08	1,53
Malaysia	28,97	36,76	34,05	0,22	2,06
Kyrgyzstan	10,82	36,24	51,18	1,76	2,44
Chinese Taipei	0,01	0,11	1,94	97,94	3,98
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Iran	85,68	14,32	0,00	0,00	1,14
Uzbekistan	14,32	85,50	0,17	0,01	1,86
Turkmenistan	0,00	0,04	63,11	36,85	3,37
Hong Kong	0,00	0,14	36,72	63,14	3,63
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Iraq	98,44	1,52	0,04	0,00	1,02
Vietnam	1,34	71,89	24,10	2,67	2,28
Indonesia	0,19	25,32	60,59	13,90	2,88
Philippines	0,03	1,27	15,27	83,43	3,82
group G	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Saudi Arabia	73,70	18,01	8,29	0,00	1,35
Jordan	11,89	48,95	39,07	0,09	2,27
Tajikistan	14,41	33,04	52,53	0,02	2,38
Pakistan	0,00	0,00	0,11	99,89	4,00
group H	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
United Arab Emirates	78,79	20,66	0,55	0,00	1,22
Bahrain	20,98	77,71	1,31	0,00	1,80
Yemen	0,23	1,57	91,83	6,37	3,04
Nepal	0,00	0,06	6,31	93,63	3,94
group I	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Australia	99,81	0,18	0,01	0,00	1,00
Palestine	0,14	80,30	18,95	0,61	2,20
Lebanon	0,05	19,20	74,92	5,83	2,87
Bangladesh	0,00	0,32	6,12	93,56	3,93

Probabilities to qualify for stage 3 (as number 1 or 2 from the 9 groups) plus a column indicating the difference in %-points compared to the simulations before the start of qualification:

team	Q		diff
Iran	100,00		0,33
Japan	100,00		0,29
Australia	99,99		0,59
Iraq	99,96		2,97
Uzbekistan	99,82		5,85
Korea Republic	99,51		1,28
United Arab Emirates	99,45		4,47
Qatar	98,90		6,85
Bahrain	98,69		1,70
Saudi Arabia	91,71		3,33
Oman	87,09		-10,71
Palestine	80,44		9,91
Syria	75,37		18,66
Vietnam	73,23		3,31
Malaysia	65,73		6,38
Jordan	60,84		-29,15
China PR	55,12		-11,38
India	51,76		19,85
Kuwait	48,67		-22,36
Tajikistan	47,45		25,87
Kyrgyzstan	47,06		6,11
Thailand	44,47		12,52
Indonesia	25,51		-5,30
Korea DPR	24,56		-18,73
Lebanon	19,25		-10,35
Yemen	1,80		-5,41
Philippines	1,30		-0,98
Singapore	0,90		-2,42
Afghanistan	0,67		-4,32
Bangladesh	0,32		0,13
Hong Kong	0,14		-1,16
Chinese Taipei	0,12		-1,77
Myanmar	0,07		-0,21
Nepal	0,06		-0,76
Turkmenistan	0,04		-5,02
Pakistan	0,00		-0,02

The probable pots for the stage 3 group draw (3 groups of 6 teams). The teams are ordered by their average pot, weighed with the probability to qualify for stage 3:

team	pot 1	pot 2	pot 3	pot 4	pot 5	pot 6
Japan	100,00	0	0	0	0	0
Iran	99,91	0,09	0	0	0	0
Australia	88,53	11,46	0	0	0	0
---------------------------
Korea Republic	11,56	87,95	0	0	0	0
Qatar	0	94,61	4,29	0	0	0
Saudi Arabia	0	70,16	21,55	0	0	0
---------------------------
Iraq	0	35,14	64,82	0	0	0
Uzbekistan	0	0,54	99,22	0,06	0	0
United Arab Emirates	0	0,05	96,72	2,68	0	0
---------------------------
Bahrain	0	0	2,12	94,41	2,16	0
Oman	0	0	6,56	80,25	0,28	0
Palestine	0	0	0	5,17	74,51	0,76
---------------------------
Syria	0	0	0	24,35	51,00	0,02
Jordan	0	0	4,67	56,00	0,17	0
Vietnam	0	0	0	0,09	23,17	49,97
---------------------------
China PR	0	0	0,05	29,27	25,80	0
Malaysia	0	0	0	0	0,11	65,62
Tajikistan	0	0	0	5,53	41,01	0,91
---------------------------
Thailand	0	0	0	1,82	40,05	2,60
India	0	0	0	0	4,06	47,70
Kyrgyzstan	0	0	0	0,36	25,96	20,74
Kuwait	0	0	0	0	0,11	48,56
Korea DPR	0	0	0	0	7,09	17,47
Indonesia	0	0	0	0	0	25,51
Lebanon	0	0	0	0,01	4,52	14,72
Yemen	0	0	0	0	0	1,80
Philippines	0	0	0	0	0	1,30
Singapore	0	0	0	0	0	0,90
Afghanistan	0	0	0	0	0	0,67
Bangladesh	0	0	0	0	0	0,32
Hong Kong	0	0	0	0	0	0,14
Chinese Taipei	0	0	0	0	0	0,12
Myanmar	0	0	0	0	0	0,07
Nepal	0	0	0	0	0	0,06
Turkmenistan	0	0	0	0	0	0,04
Pakistan	0	0	0	0	0	0

CONMEBOL

In South America the first six match days of 18 in total have been played last Autumn. Here are the group results with teams ordered by average group position (in the last column). I've included the 3 points initial penalty for Ecuador:

team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	avg
Argentina	73,82	18,12	6,03	1,77	0,23	0,03	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	1,37
Uruguay	13,64	37,52	27,01	15,48	4,92	1,13	0,25	0,05	0,00	0,00	2,65
Colombia	10,76	28,71	32,63	20,47	6,15	1,06	0,15	0,07	0,00	0,00	2,87
Brazil	1,52	12,57	24,16	36,00	18,43	5,44	1,45	0,37	0,04	0,02	3,82
Ecuador	0,23	2,66	8,42	19,60	41,65	17,92	5,91	2,46	0,88	0,27	4,97
Venezuela	0,03	0,41	1,55	5,07	18,71	38,91	19,36	9,91	4,41	1,64	6,24
Chile	0,00	0,00	0,03	0,46	2,62	10,57	22,47	22,22	21,87	19,76	8,08
Paraguay	0,00	0,01	0,06	0,46	2,83	8,38	18,52	23,79	24,92	21,03	8,21
Bolivia	0,00	0,00	0,03	0,32	2,07	8,94	15,72	20,35	23,88	28,69	8,40
Peru	0,00	0,00	0,08	0,37	2,39	7,62	16,17	20,78	24,00	28,59	8,41

Probabilities for direct qualification (nrs 1 to 6) and for the IPO (nr 7) plus columns indicating the difference in %-points compared to the simulations before the start of qualification:

team	direct Q	IPO		diff Q	diff IPO
Argentina	100,00	0,00		0,29	-0,19
Colombia	99,78	0,15		9,55	-5,13
Uruguay	99,70	0,25		13,62	-6,77
Brazil	98,12	1,45		-0,97	0,83
Ecuador	90,48	5,91		32,81	-10,08
Venezuela	64,68	19,36		37,54	3,66
Chile	13,68	22,47		-15,30	6,22
Paraguay	11,74	18,52		-19,06	1,59
Bolivia	11,36	15,72		0,89	6,36
Peru	10,46	16,17		-59,37	3,51

CAF

In Africa the first two match days in the group stage were played in November. The group results with teams ordered by average group position, indicated in the last avg column:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Egypt	74,24	21,16	3,96	0,58	0,06	0,00	1,31
Burkina Faso	23,13	59,22	14,15	2,97	0,53	0,00	1,99
Guinea-Bissau	2,14	12,31	43,48	24,53	17,45	0,09	3,43
Sierra Leone	0,26	4,74	20,25	36,90	36,75	1,10	4,08
Ethiopia	0,23	2,57	18,14	34,80	42,80	1,46	4,22
Djibouti	0,00	0,00	0,02	0,22	2,41	97,35	5,97
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Senegal	92,80	6,20	0,84	0,15	0,01	0,00	1,08
Congo DR	5,50	52,75	24,43	12,58	4,14	0,60	2,59
Togo	0,87	20,19	27,00	26,80	19,99	5,15	3,60
Sudan	0,50	11,67	25,52	30,81	24,14	7,36	3,89
Mauritania	0,33	8,79	20,47	24,81	36,43	9,17	4,16
South Sudan	0,00	0,40	1,74	4,85	15,29	77,72	5,68
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Nigeria	65,46	24,28	7,22	2,37	0,56	0,11	1,49
South Africa	26,94	40,81	18,63	8,41	3,65	1,56	2,26
Rwanda	3,00	11,87	25,97	25,35	20,14	13,67	3,89
Zimbabwe	2,47	11,69	20,45	24,83	22,13	18,43	4,08
Benin	1,53	7,12	17,29	22,57	27,52	23,97	4,39
Lesotho	0,60	4,23	10,44	16,47	26,00	42,26	4,90
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Cape Verde Islands	43,37	29,70	18,08	8,35	0,49	0,01	1,93
Cameroon	33,74	28,86	24,39	11,28	1,71	0,02	2,18
Angola	15,89	26,26	29,32	23,94	4,50	0,09	2,75
Libya	6,93	14,67	25,94	45,49	6,56	0,41	3,31
Eswatini	0,07	0,51	2,18	9,89	69,31	18,04	5,02
Mauritius	0,00	0,00	0,09	1,05	17,43	81,43	5,80
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th		avg
Morocco	99,31	0,69	0,00	0,00	0,00		1,01
Zambia	0,62	54,48	29,37	12,54	2,99		2,63
Tanzania	0,07	34,19	35,17	21,39	9,18		3,05
Niger	0,00	5,50	20,28	39,45	34,77		4,03
Congo	0,00	5,14	15,18	26,62	53,06		4,28
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Cote d'Ivoire	67,46	23,11	6,81	2,06	0,56	0,00	1,45
Gabon	27,07	48,88	16,78	5,89	1,38	0,00	2,06
Kenya	2,71	11,47	29,60	26,62	29,48	0,12	3,69
Burundi	1,62	8,03	24,50	34,19	31,53	0,13	3,86
Gambia	1,14	8,51	22,31	31,19	36,63	0,22	3,94
Seychelles	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,05	0,42	99,53	5,99
group G	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Algeria	84,16	11,78	3,01	0,81	0,24	0,00	1,21
Guinea	10,64	45,83	23,87	13,85	5,80	0,01	2,58
Mozambique	1,90	20,77	25,49	28,93	22,83	0,08	3,50
Botswana	1,25	11,17	24,63	32,02	30,84	0,09	3,80
Uganda	2,05	10,45	23,00	24,38	40,03	0,09	3,90
Somalia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,01	0,26	99,73	6,00
group H	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Tunisia	67,98	28,76	2,97	0,28	0,01	0,00	1,36
Equatorial Guinea	30,61	59,66	8,27	1,37	0,09	0,00	1,81
Malawi	0,85	6,30	40,77	39,33	11,67	1,08	3,58
Namibia	0,54	5,03	40,65	36,14	16,70	0,94	3,66
Liberia	0,02	0,25	7,10	21,04	58,78	12,81	4,77
Sao Tomé e Príncipe	0,00	0,00	0,24	1,84	12,75	85,17	5,83
group I	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Mali	73,53	19,49	5,30	1,39	0,28	0,01	1,35
Ghana	21,05	48,00	19,68	8,08	2,69	0,50	2,25
Comoros	3,15	15,96	34,24	27,28	16,10	3,27	3,47
Madagascar	1,63	9,72	23,84	29,77	28,44	6,60	3,93
Central African Republic	0,63	6,31	15,03	27,47	35,97	14,59	4,36
Chad	0,01	0,52	1,91	6,01	16,52	75,03	5,64

The probabilities to qualify for the play-offs as one of the 4 best group runners-up, with in square brackets the probability to qualify for the play-off, given that the team is a group runner-up. Also a column indicating the difference in %-points compared to the simulations before the start of qualification:

team	PO			diff
Equatorial Guinea	49,83	[83,52]		29,50
Burkina Faso	41,83	[70,63]		14,35
Gabon	33,85	[69,25]		20,13
Tunisia	25,87	[89,95]		17,29
Guinea	24,30	[53,02]		11,32
Ghana	20,04	[41,75]		-4,70
Cote d'Ivoire	18,04	[78,06]		5,79
Egypt	17,65	[83,41]		1,24
Cape Verde Islands	16,11	[54,24]		-4,45
Congo DR	15,22	[28,85]		-6,67
Cameroon	14,95	[51,80]		-0,58
Angola	12,53	[47,72]		4,49
Mali	11,28	[57,88]		-9,20
Mozambique	8,73	[42,03]		4,37
South Africa	8,67	[21,24]		-6,75
Algeria	8,39	[71,22]		0,71
Nigeria	7,17	[29,53]		-4,36
Guinea-Bissau	6,25	[50,77]		-0,96
Kenya	6,23	[54,32]		1,42
Libya	5,87	[40,01]		2,29
Comoros	5,42	[33,96]		4,65
Gambia	3,92	[46,06]		-10,76
Togo	3,89	[19,27]		1,06
Uganda	3,89	[37,22]		-4,68
Senegal	3,86	[62,26]		-4,03
Burundi	3,86	[48,07]		2,03
Botswana	3,85	[34,47]		-2,32
Malawi	3,56	[56,51]		0,46
Namibia	3,15	[62,62]		-2,13
Madagascar	1,99	[20,47]		0,88
Sudan	1,85	[15,85]		0,81
Sierra Leone	1,58	[33,33]		-0,73
Rwanda	1,39	[11,71]		0,85
Zimbabwe	1,26	[10,78]		-0,53
Central African Republic	1,03	[16,32]		-2,01
Mauritania	0,99	[11,26]		-4,97
Ethiopia	0,69	[26,85]		-1,84
Benin	0,45	[6,32]		-4,40
Lesotho	0,25	[5,91]		-0,02
Zambia	0,08	[0,15]		-33,59
Tanzania	0,08	[0,23]		-2,84
Liberia	0,07	[28,00]		-2,20
Eswatini	0,03	[5,88]		-1,57
Chad	0,03	[5,77]		-0,18
Morocco	0,02	[2,90]		-5,15
Congo	0,00	[0,00]		-1,22
Niger	0,00	[0,00]		-0,66
South Sudan	0,00	[0,00]		-0,04
Sao Tomé e Príncipe	0,00	[0,00]		-0,01
Djibouti	0,00	[0,00]		0,00
Mauritius	0,00	[0,00]		0,00
Seychelles	0,00	[0,00]		0,00
Somalia	0,00	[0,00]		0,00

CONCACAF

In North and Central America and the Caribbean the first stage play-off win probabilities are:

team	win_po
Turks and Caicos Islands	74,30
British Virgin Islands	60,51
US Virgin Islands	39,49
Anguilla	25,70

The group results in stage 2 with teams ordered by average group position, indicated in the last avg column:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	avg
Honduras	81,94	15,18	2,55	0,32	0,01	1,21
Cuba	14,47	56,80	22,41	5,80	0,52	2,21
Bermuda	2,99	21,96	48,34	22,79	3,92	3,03
Antigua and Barbuda	0,59	5,81	23,45	54,11	16,04	3,79
Cayman Islands	0,01	0,25	3,25	16,98	79,51	4,76
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	avg
Costa Rica	79,29	19,78	0,91	0,02	0,00	1,22
Trinidad and Tobago	20,11	70,51	7,98	1,36	0,04	1,91
Grenada	0,32	5,43	45,26	40,29	8,70	3,52
St. Kitts and Nevis	0,28	4,14	42,32	43,78	9,48	3,58
Bahamas	0,00	0,14	3,53	14,55	81,78	4,78
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	avg
Haiti	75,30	22,11	2,39	0,19	0,01	1,28
Curacao	22,58	59,92	13,45	3,43	0,62	2,00
St. Lucia	1,66	11,38	44,06	28,01	14,89	3,43
Aruba	0,33	4,30	24,42	36,72	34,23	4,00
Barbados	0,13	2,29	15,68	31,65	50,25	4,30
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	avg
Panama	94,75	4,93	0,31	0,01	0,00	1,06
Nicaragua	3,87	52,71	31,40	9,33	2,69	2,54
Guyana	1,33	34,91	42,69	15,43	5,64	2,89
Belize	0,01	4,34	14,63	40,21	40,81	4,17
Montserrat	0,04	3,11	10,97	35,02	50,86	4,34
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	avg
Jamaica	68,59	28,07	3,16	0,18	0,00	1,35
Guatemala	29,40	58,25	11,39	0,91	0,05	1,84
Dominican Republic	1,95	12,62	67,60	17,26	0,57	3,02
Dominica	0,06	1,03	17,31	73,35	8,25	3,89
British Virgin Islands	0,00	0,02	0,34	5,76	54,39
US Virgin Islands	0,00	0,01	0,20	2,54	36,74
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	avg
El Salvador	58,99	26,92	10,42	3,44	0,23	1,59
Suriname	28,62	37,64	22,53	10,17	1,04	2,17
Puerto Rico	8,66	21,85	37,21	30,36	1,92	2,95
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	3,70	13,43	28,88	49,84	4,15	3,37
Turks and Caicos Islands	0,03	0,15	0,88	5,40	67,84
Anguilla	0,00	0,01	0,08	0,79	24,82

And the probability to qualify (as group number 1 or 2 from the 6 groups) for the next group stage 3:

team	q_stage 3
Panama	99,68
Costa Rica	99,07
Haiti	97,41
Honduras	97,12
Jamaica	96,66
Trinidad and Tobago	90,62
Guatemala	87,65
El Salvador	85,91
Curacao	82,50
Cuba	71,27
Suriname	66,26
Nicaragua	56,58
Guyana	36,24
Puerto Rico	30,51
Bermuda	24,95
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	17,13
Dominican Republic	14,57
St. Lucia	13,04
Antigua and Barbuda	6,40
Grenada	5,75
Aruba	4,63
St. Kitts and Nevis	4,42
Belize	4,35
Montserrat	3,15
Barbados	2,42
Dominica	1,09
Cayman Islands	0,26
Turks and Caicos Islands	0,18
Bahamas	0,14
British Virgin Islands	0,02
Anguilla	0,01
US Virgin Islands	0,01

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About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.