UEFA EURO 2024 simulations (March 2024)

In 2024 five of the six confederations have scheduled their continental championship for national teams. Here's the fifth and last in this series of simulation reports: Europe.

The UEFA EURO 2024 will be hosted by Germany. It's a 24-team tournament in the now known format with the four best group numbers three also progressing to the first knock-out round, the round of 16.

Qualified already are 21 teams (the host plus the group numbers one and two of ten qualification groups). The final 3 berths are determined this March in three play-off paths, in two one-off semi finals and a final per path. Compared to the EURO 2020 qualification play-offs league D no longer has it's own path, which I consider a logical thing to do.

Participants in these play-offs qualified via their performance in the UEFA Nations League 2022/23 group stage. Composition of each path and the hosts for the finals in each path were drawn in November last year:

path A

Poland - Estonia

Wales - Finland

final hosted in Wales or Finland

path B

Israel - Iceland

Bosnia-Herzegovina - Ukraine

final hosted in Bosnia-Herzegovina or Ukraine (Wroclaw, Poland)

path C

Georgia - Luxembourg

Greece - Kazakhstan

final hosted in Georgia or Luxembourg

The UEFA EURO 2024 kicks off on Friday June 14th and lasts until the final on Sunday July 14th.

The complete tournament schedule plus all relevant matches in the upcoming March window are simulated: 

- already scheduled friendlies with UEFA teams involved

- the three qualification play-off paths.

As Russia is also banned from participating in the upcoming UNL 2024/25 with a group stage in Autumn 2024, this March also one two-legged relegation play-off is played between the two worst league C fourth place finishers, Lithuania and Gibraltar, to decide which team relegates to league D in the UNL 2024/25.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

First, the win probabilities for the semi finals and the final in the qualification play-offs plus the UNL league C relegation play-off:

team	win SF	Q
Ukraine	73,99	48,58
Wales	71,69	46,14
Georgia	76,82	43,44
Greece	86,08	42,65
Poland	92,53	36,14
Israel	76,28	35,26
Finland	28,31	16,90
Luxembourg	23,18	10,79
Iceland	23,72	9,02
Bosnia-Herzegovina	26,01	7,14
Kazakhstan	13,92	3,12
Estonia	7,47	0,82

team	win PO
Lithuania	86,38
Gibraltar	13,62

Then the group stage of the final tournament, with teams ordered by ascending average group position in the last column. The group stage draw was already in December last year:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Germany	52,66	26,63	14,48	6,23	1,74
Hungary	19,72	27,58	25,95	26,75	2,60
Switzerland	13,74	23,25	31,98	31,03	2,80
Scotland	13,88	22,54	27,59	35,99	2,86
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Spain	50,29	28,73	17,64	3,34	1,74
Croatia	26,75	35,72	31,05	6,48	2,17
Italy	22,02	31,95	38,81	7,22	2,31
Albania	0,94	3,60	12,50	82,96	3,77
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
England	61,84	24,11	9,77	4,28	1,56
Denmark	19,09	31,97	29,13	19,81	2,50
Serbia	11,18	26,32	32,89	29,61	2,81
Slovenia	7,89	17,60	28,21	46,30	3,13
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
France	68,65	22,04	7,24	2,07	1,43
Netherlands	21,91	42,55	26,09	9,45	2,23
Austria	7,22	24,02	35,34	33,42	2,95
Wales	1,01	5,46	14,69	24,98
Poland	0,96	4,41	11,39	19,38
Finland	0,25	1,52	5,17	9,96
Estonia	0,00	0,00	0,08	0,74
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Belgium	67,26	23,92	6,94	1,88	1,43
Romania	7,89	25,69	32,88	33,54	2,92
Slovakia	6,48	20,97	31,88	40,67	3,07
Ukraine	15,73	18,26	10,49	4,10
Israel	2,18	8,61	12,27	12,20
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0,24	1,05	2,19	3,66
Iceland	0,22	1,50	3,35	3,95
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Portugal	70,10	20,80	6,96	2,14	1,41
Turkey	12,07	32,41	28,70	26,82	2,70
Czech Republic	10,76	26,27	32,11	30,86	2,83
Greece	4,45	11,49	14,00	12,71
Georgia	2,35	7,57	14,50	19,02
Luxembourg	0,24	1,27	2,89	6,39
Kazakhstan	0,03	0,19	0,84	2,06

Then the knock-out stage, starting with the round of 16. Teams can qualify for this round as group number one or two (q_nr1_2) or as one of the best four group numbers three (q_nr3). The teams are ordered by their summed qualification probability for this round (Q_tot):

team	q_nr1_2	q_nr3	Q_tot
Belgium	91,18	6,02	97,20
Portugal	90,90	6,28	97,18
France	90,69	6,18	96,87
England	85,95	8,57	94,52
Spain	79,02	14,62	93,64
Germany	79,29	12,13	91,42
Croatia	62,47	23,97	86,44
Netherlands	64,46	20,64	85,10
Italy	53,97	30,71	84,68
Denmark	51,06	17,56	68,62
Hungary	47,30	17,50	64,80
Turkey	44,48	18,02	62,50
Serbia	37,50	23,30	60,80
Czech Republic	37,03	23,06	60,09
Scotland	36,42	20,39	56,81
Switzerland	36,99	19,22	56,21
Austria	31,24	24,40	55,64
Romania	33,58	17,57	51,15
Slovakia	27,45	21,68	49,13
Slovenia	25,49	16,79	42,28
Ukraine	33,99	7,36	41,35
Greece	15,94	7,65	23,59
Israel	10,79	6,09	16,88
Georgia	9,92	6,80	16,72
Wales	6,47	5,90	12,37
Albania	4,54	7,52	12,06
Poland	5,37	4,79	10,16
Finland	1,77	1,76	3,53
Iceland	1,72	1,42	3,14
Luxembourg	1,51	0,86	2,37
Bosnia-Herzegovina	1,29	0,87	2,16
Kazakhstan	0,22	0,35	0,57
Estonia	0,00	0,02	0,02

The probability to qualify for the quarter finals. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the round of 16.

team	QF
France	79,74		[82,32]
Spain	67,89		[72,50]
England	66,50		[70,36]
Portugal	63,26		[65,10]
Belgium	60,78		[62,53]
Germany	56,70		[62,02]
Netherlands	56,57		[66,47]
Croatia	52,92		[61,22]
Italy	48,73		[57,55]
Denmark	29,46		[42,93]
Austria	26,69		[47,97]
Hungary	25,11		[38,75]
Serbia	22,37		[36,79]
Scotland	19,73		[34,73]
Switzerland	19,72		[35,08]
Ukraine	18,00		[43,53]
Czech Republic	14,26		[23,73]
Turkey	14,06		[22,50]
Slovenia	12,91		[30,53]
Romania	11,09		[21,68]
Slovakia	9,74		[19,82]
Greece	5,45		[23,10]
Wales	4,41		[35,65]
Poland	3,75		[36,91]
Israel	2,91		[17,24]
Albania	2,67		[22,14]
Georgia	2,57		[15,37]
Finland	1,11		[31,44]
Iceland	0,31		[09,87]
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0,30		[13,89]
Luxembourg	0,25		[10,55]
Kazakhstan	0,04		[07,02]
Estonia	0,00		[00,00]

The probability to qualify for the semi finals. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the quarter finals.

team	SF
France	56,14		[70,40]
Spain	40,38		[59,48]
Portugal	39,59		[62,58]
England	38,12		[57,32]
Germany	32,58		[57,46]
Netherlands	29,97		[52,98]
Belgium	27,74		[45,64]
Croatia	26,72		[50,49]
Italy	24,27		[49,81]
Austria	11,11		[41,63]
Denmark	10,92		[37,07]
Hungary	9,88		[39,35]
Serbia	7,74		[34,60]
Scotland	7,52		[38,11]
Switzerland	6,87		[34,84]
Ukraine	6,66		[37,00]
Turkey	4,68		[33,29]
Czech Republic	4,46		[31,28]
Slovenia	3,69		[28,58]
Romania	2,52		[22,72]
Slovakia	2,04		[20,94]
Greece	1,75		[32,11]
Wales	1,27		[28,80]
Poland	1,14		[30,40]
Georgia	0,69		[00,00]
Albania	0,61		[00,00]
Israel	0,58		[00,00]
Finland	0,21		[00,00]
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0,06		[00,00]
Luxembourg	0,05		[00,00]
Iceland	0,04		[00,00]
Kazakhstan	0,00		[00,00]
Estonia	0,00		[00,00]

The probability to qualify for the final. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the semi finals.

team	Final
France	37,26		[66,37]
Portugal	22,74		[57,44]
Spain	21,95		[54,36]
England	19,62		[51,47]
Germany	17,93		[55,03]
Belgium	14,79		[53,32]
Netherlands	14,52		[48,45]
Croatia	12,37		[46,29]
Italy	10,98		[45,24]
Austria	4,28		[38,52]
Denmark	3,79		[34,71]
Hungary	3,57		[36,13]
Serbia	2,66		[34,37]
Scotland	2,56		[34,04]
Ukraine	2,52		[37,84]
Switzerland	2,26		[32,90]
Turkey	1,56		[33,33]
Czech Republic	1,35		[30,27]
Slovenia	0,88		[23,85]
Romania	0,56		[22,22]
Greece	0,42		[24,00]
Slovakia	0,41		[20,10]
Poland	0,32		[28,07]
Wales	0,31		[24,41]
Albania	0,13		[21,31]
Georgia	0,12		[17,39]
Israel	0,07		[12,07]
Finland	0,06		[28,57]
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0,01		[16,67]
Luxembourg	0,00		[00,00]
Iceland	0,00		[00,00]
Kazakhstan	0,00		[00,00]
Estonia	0,00		[00,00]

The probability to win the UEFA EURO 2024. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the final.

team	Winner
France	23,77		[63,79]
Portugal	11,65		[51,23]
Spain	11,25		[51,25]
England	10,67		[54,38]
Germany	9,41		[52,48]
Belgium	7,26		[49,09]
Netherlands	6,44		[44,35]
Croatia	5,85		[47,29]
Italy	4,74		[43,17]
Austria	1,30		[30,37]
Denmark	1,26		[33,25]
Hungary	1,08		[30,25]
Ukraine	1,08		[42,86]
Switzerland	0,87		[38,50]
Serbia	0,86		[32,33]
Scotland	0,86		[33,59]
Turkey	0,44		[28,21]
Czech Republic	0,43		[31,85]
Slovenia	0,19		[21,59]
Greece	0,16		[38,10]
Wales	0,10		[32,26]
Poland	0,10		[31,25]
Romania	0,10		[17,86]
Slovakia	0,09		[21,95]
Georgia	0,03		[25,00]
Albania	0,01		[07,69]
Israel	0,00		[00,00]
Finland	0,00		[00,00]
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0,00		[00,00]
Luxembourg	0,00		[00,00]
Iceland	0,00		[00,00]
Kazakhstan	0,00		[00,00]
Estonia	0,00		[00,00]

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About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.