FIFA ranking: June 2024 probable ranking

Here is the probable June 2024 ranking, to be published on Thursday June 20th. In the upcoming June window matches will be played for:

- match days 5 and 6 (to a finish) in the groups for AFC World Cup 2026 qualification stage 2;

- match days 1 and 2 in the groups for CONCACAF World Cup 2026 qualification stage 2;

- match days 3 and 4 in the groups for CAF World Cup 2026 qualification stage 1;

- lots of preparatory friendlies for the continental finals starting mid June: EURO, Copa America and OFC Nations Cup.

There are a few uncertainties around this ranking.

For instance the news was recently published that Equatorial Guinea has fielded the ineligible player Emilio Nsue Lopez in their first two WC-qualifiers in November last year. Both matches -against Namibia at home on the 15th (1:0 win) and against Liberia away on the 20th (0:1 win)- are awarded 3:0 wins to the opponent. Equatorial Guinea can still appeal this decision. I haven't applied any corrections yet for these two awarded matches in this probable ranking.

By the way, 'fun fact' is that this is not the first time Equatorial Guinea has been punished for such an offence. It seems they haven't learned anything from their qualification campaign for the World Cup 2014 where they fielded exactly the same ineligible player (!) in two group matches against Cape Verde Islands and were punished also with two 0:3 losses.

Another uncertainty concerns the correct deadline to be used for this June ranking. Normally the deadline to incorporate played matches in the ranking calculation is the Sunday before the Thursday the ranking is published. In this case that would be Sunday June 16th. But as this date falls in the midst of the first group stage match day of the EURO 2024 (which starts on Friday the 14th) I expect the deadline to be moved backwards to Tuesday June 11th, the final day of the June window.

And then we have a third uncertainty: this June window (3 - 11 June) is officially designated to be 'for all confederations except UEFA' in the FIFA Men's International Match Calender. I assume that any friendly played in this window with UEFA-teams participating in it, is normally calculated though and thus using an I-factor of 10.

This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 192 currently played and scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 197 currently played and scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are currently included.

pos Jun.	team	pts Jun.	+/- pos	+/- pts
1	Argentina	1860,14	0	2,14
2	France	1843,50	0	2,91
3	Belgium	1797,97	0	2,74
4	England	1797,88	0	2,98
5	Brazil	1792,40	0	3,75
6	Portugal	1756,91	0	8,80
7	Netherlands	1746,61	0	4,32
8	Spain	1729,92	0	2,42
9	Italy	1729,35	0	4,75
10	Croatia	1718,30	0	-2,77
11	USA	1680,97	0	-0,16
12	Morocco	1669,43	1	8,01
13	Uruguay	1665,92	2	6,53
14	Colombia	1664,44	-2	0,16
15	Mexico	1652,36	-1	-8,75
16	Germany	1651,74	0	7,53
17	Senegal	1636,01	0	11,28
18	Japan	1629,20	0	7,32
19	Iran	1623,66	1	9,70
20	Switzerland	1617,24	-1	0,83
21	Denmark	1610,76	0	8,04
22	Korea Republic	1573,10	1	9,11
23	Australia	1571,50	1	7,57
24	Ukraine	1565,42	-2	-3,44
25	Austria	1560,03	0	5,17
26	Hungary	1538,92	0	6,72
27	Nigeria	1535,99	3	15,72
28	Poland	1531,44	0	-0,05
29	Wales	1531,35	0	-0,03
30	Sweden	1527,19	-3	-4,49
31	Peru	1520,01	1	4,19
32	Qatar	1516,37	2	8,43
33	Ecuador	1516,09	-2	-2,14
34	Egypt	1515,04	3	15,32
35	Cote d'Ivoire	1512,40	3	13,60
36	Serbia	1509,76	-3	-4,44
37	Tunisia	1507,35	4	14,23
38	Russia	1506,58	-3	2,56
39	Czech Republic	1506,23	-3	4,76
40	Scotland	1502,18	-1	4,72
41	Algeria	1498,63	2	15,92
42	Chile	1496,09	0	4,38
43	Mali	1493,78	1	15,88
44	Turkey	1493,38	-4	-2,56
45	Panama	1482,06	0	6,44
46	Romania	1472,33	0	4,16
47	Norway	1466,48	0	-1,03
48	Slovakia	1462,81	0	1,26
49	Canada	1456,75	0	-4,41
50	Saudi Arabia	1456,30	3	12,77
51	Greece	1455,99	-1	-1,90
52	Costa Rica	1451,65	0	6,27
53	Cameroon	1446,22	-2	-6,37
54	Jamaica	1442,82	1	7,49
55	Venezuela	1442,29	-1	0
56	Slovenia	1434,70	1	6,86
57	Iraq	1433,08	1	12,61
58	Paraguay	1422,16	-2	-8,57
59	South Africa	1404,63	0	-3,04
60	Republic of Ireland	1393,97	0	-5,77
61	Cape Verde Islands	1392,78	4	9,34
62	Congo DR	1388,94	1	0,68
63	Finland	1388,40	-2	-6,04
64	Burkina Faso	1387,66	-2	-2,72
65	Uzbekistan	1384,91	-1	-1,67
66	United Arab Emirates	1381,63	1	15,18
67	Albania	1379,40	-1	4,30
68	Ghana	1356,75	0	-2,02
69	Montenegro	1350,02	1	-1,70
70	Jordan	1349,13	1	-1,08
71	North Macedonia	1348,63	-2	-5,56
72	Iceland	1343,53	0	-3,29
73	Northern Ireland	1341,33	0	0,28
74	Oman	1338,96	3	15,73
75	Georgia	1333,91	0	0,15
76	Bosnia-Herzegovina	1332,33	-2	-3,27
77	Guinea	1325,36	-1	0,71
78	El Salvador	1315,92	3	10,90
79	Honduras	1313,05	3	11,13
80	Israel	1312,62	-2	1,23
81	Equatorial Guinea	1308,74	-2	0,71
82	Bahrain	1302,57	-2	-4,96
83	Gabon	1288,45	1	1,12
84	Bulgaria	1285,54	-1	-7,05
85	Bolivia	1283,89	0	0
86	Zambia	1283,39	0	5,13
87	China PR	1279,78	1	4,56
88	Luxembourg	1275,70	-1	-2,24
89	Haiti	1274,46	1	11,96
90	Curacao	1272,71	1	10,23
91	Syria	1271,29	-2	4,77
92	Angola	1248,68	2	12,92
93	Palestine	1243,54	0	4,88
94	Uganda	1243,46	-2	1,31
95	Trinidad and Tobago	1234,86	3	14,21
96	Armenia	1225,79	-1	-3,39
97	Belarus	1219,78	-1	-6,76
98	Benin	1217,12	-1	-8,56
99	Kyrgyzstan	1213,30	1	-0,30
100	Tajikistan	1212,41	-1	-4,35
101	Thailand	1206,32	0	-2,61
102	Kazakhstan	1203,58	1	-0,06
103	Kosovo	1203,16	-1	-2,69
104	Mauritania	1202,34	1	6,84
105	Guatemala	1201,62	3	13,35
106	New Zealand	1197,68	-2	0
107	Kenya	1195,24	0	4,00
108	Namibia	1194,86	-2	2,73
109	Madagascar	1191,62	0	5,76
110	Mozambique	1180,26	0	-4,23
111	Congo	1175,17	0	-4,63
112	Azerbaijan	1174,93	0	-2,90
113	Togo	1170,69	0	0,35
114	Guinea-Bissau	1168,29	2	4,85
115	Vietnam	1168,02	0	3,48
116	Libya	1165,99	-2	-0,72
117	Korea DPR	1159,50	1	-1,07
118	Comoros	1158,71	-1	-4,31
119	Lebanon	1155,38	1	-3,58
120	Tanzania	1149,47	-1	-10,34
121	Estonia	1148,98	2	7,85
122	India	1139,58	-1	-6,36
123	Malawi	1138,95	2	-1,98
124	Sierra Leone	1136,90	2	-0,46
125	Cyprus	1136,78	-1	-4,25
126	Zimbabwe	1134,58	-4	-9,08
127	Central African Republic	1128,80	1	0,63
128	Niger	1126,79	1	1,29
129	Rwanda	1126,06	2	13,62
130	Nicaragua	1117,48	5	14,94
131	Sudan	1115,33	-4	-13,99
132	Gambia	1112,55	-2	-2,25
133	Solomon Islands	1111,02	-1	0
134	Indonesia	1108,99	0	6,29
135	Kuwait	1098,12	4	12,66
136	Latvia	1096,32	0	0,41
137	Malaysia	1095,37	1	0,83
138	Lithuania	1095,32	-1	0,09
139	Faroe Islands	1093,70	-6	-9,73
140	Suriname	1087,71	4	15,86
141	Burundi	1078,98	-1	-2,65
142	Turkmenistan	1077,92	1	5,40
143	Antigua and Barbuda	1077,80	-1	5,14
144	Ethiopia	1066,41	1	-2,07
145	Botswana	1064,19	1	-0,88
146	St. Kitts and Nevis	1059,50	1	2,89
147	Philippines	1053,04	-6	-22,10
148	Eswatini	1050,18	0	1,29
149	Dominican Republic	1045,64	1	2,78
150	Lesotho	1038,92	-1	-8,66
151	Moldova	1033,75	2	4,90
152	Liberia	1030,21	0	0,63
153	Guyana	1023,56	1	3,25
154	Afghanistan	1022,17	-3	-14,75
155	Yemen	1021,54	1	4,49
156	New Caledonia	1008,92	2	0,00
157	Singapore	1008,00	-2	-11,06
158	Puerto Rico	1007,97	2	1,62
159	Maldives	1003,48	2	0
160	Tahiti	999,48	2	0
161	Hong Kong	999,41	-4	-13,42
162	Andorra	996,05	2	-2,70
163	St. Lucia	992,07	2	3,40
164	Chinese Taipei	991,05	-5	-16,25
165	Myanmar	988,44	-2	-11,02
166	Papua New Guinea	985,32	0	0
167	Cuba	984,35	2	3,70
168	Fiji	983,81	0	0
169	South Sudan	979,75	-2	-4,90
170	Vanuatu	972,14	2	0
171	Bermuda	971,15	-1	-3,15
172	Malta	970,62	-1	-2,52
173	Grenada	943,77	1	-7,22
174	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	936,18	-1	-17,29
175	Montserrat	934,41	0	-11,67
176	Barbados	932,63	1	-11,17
177	Chad	929,97	-1	-15,95
178	Cambodia	929,52	1	4,12
179	Nepal	923,13	-1	-14,71
180	Samoa	920,54	1	0
181	Dominica	912,98	-1	-9,27
182	Bhutan	904,10	3	0
183	Mauritius	902,94	0	-16,46
184	Belize	901,30	-2	-18,22
185	Macau	896,62	1	0
186	Cook Islands	896,59	1	0
187	Bangladesh	896,43	-3	-8,87
188	American Samoa	890,97	1	0
189	Laos	889,62	1	0
190	Mongolia	879,92	1	-4,12
191	Sao Tomé e Príncipe	877,26	-3	-16,32
192	Brunei Darussalam	872,65	2	0
193	Djibouti	862,37	-1	-14,91
194	Aruba	861,40	-1	-14,42
195	Timor-Leste	843,40	3	0
196	Pakistan	842,59	-1	-7,35
197	Tonga	833,12	4	0
198	Seychelles	831,71	-1	-13,82
199	Gibraltar	831,14	4	-1,36
200	Cayman Islands	831,00	-4	-16,81
201	Liechtenstein	830,85	1	-1,90
202	Somalia	829,81	-3	-12,83
203	Sri Lanka	829,41	1	0
204	Bahamas	823,80	-4	-12,01
205	Guam	821,91	0	0
206	Turks and Caicos Islands	817,03	0	0
207	British Virgin Islands	801,32	0	-11,99
208	US Virgin Islands	797,29	0	0
209	Anguilla	779,60	0	-13,88
210	San Marino	739,64	0	-2,41

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About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.