UEFA EURO 2024 simulations (May 2024)

The UEFA EURO 2024 will be played between June 14th and July 14th in Germany. It's a 24-team tournament in the now known format with 6 groups of 4 teams and with, besides the group numbers one and two, the four best group numbers three also progressing to the first knock-out round, the round of 16.

The complete tournament schedule plus already scheduled friendlies with UEFA teams involved in the June window are simulated.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

First the group stage of the final tournament, with teams ordered by ascending average group position in the last column:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Germany	57,56	25,66	12,33	4,45	1,64
Hungary	18,99	29,80	25,95	25,26	2,57
Switzerland	13,42	25,00	32,48	29,10	2,77
Scotland	10,03	19,54	29,24	41,19	3,02
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Spain	46,78	29,57	20,07	3,58	1,80
Croatia	26,86	34,56	33,09	5,49	2,17
Italy	25,63	32,82	36,33	5,22	2,21
Albania	0,73	3,05	10,51	85,71	3,81
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
England	59,01	24,49	11,34	5,16	1,63
Denmark	19,05	30,71	29,05	21,19	2,52
Serbia	11,61	24,99	31,77	31,63	2,83
Slovenia	10,33	19,81	27,84	42,02	3,02
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
France	61,01	26,29	9,83	2,87	1,55
Netherlands	24,10	40,04	24,05	11,81	2,24
Austria	12,47	24,68	35,84	27,01	2,77
Poland	2,42	8,99	30,28	58,31	3,44
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Belgium	57,85	30,58	9,48	2,09	1,56
Ukraine	32,10	37,93	21,70	8,27	2,06
Romania	5,69	17,84	37,37	39,10	3,10
Slovakia	4,36	13,65	31,45	50,54	3,28
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Portugal	68,31	21,91	7,76	2,02	1,43
Czech Republic	14,24	30,49	30,37	24,90	2,66
Turkey	12,60	30,67	29,68	27,05	2,71
Georgia	4,85	16,93	32,19	46,03	3,19

Then the knock-out stage, starting with the round of 16. Teams can qualify for this round as group number one or two (q_nr1_2) or as one of the best four group numbers three (q_nr3). The teams are ordered by their summed qualification probability for this round (Q_tot):

team	q_nr1_2	q_nr3	Q_tot
Portugal	90,22	6,89	97,11
Belgium	88,43	8,28	96,71
France	87,30	8,06	95,36
Germany	83,22	10,64	93,86
England	83,50	9,95	93,45
Spain	76,35	16,36	92,71
Italy	58,45	29,72	88,17
Croatia	61,42	26,12	87,54
Ukraine	70,03	15,17	85,20
Netherlands	64,14	19,86	84,00
Czech Republic	44,73	22,41	67,14
Denmark	49,76	17,15	66,91
Hungary	48,79	16,55	65,34
Turkey	43,27	18,09	61,36
Austria	37,15	23,58	60,73
Serbia	36,60	21,47	58,07
Switzerland	38,42	18,70	57,12
Scotland	29,57	20,70	50,27
Slovenia	30,14	16,83	46,97
Romania	23,53	17,50	41,03
Slovakia	18,01	19,81	37,82
Georgia	21,78	15,36	37,14
Poland	11,41	15,12	26,53
Albania	3,78	5,68	9,46

The probabilities to qualify for each further round in the knock-out stage. Now are also the percentages presented in square brackets to qualify for the round, given qualification for the previous knock-out round.

Quarter finals

team	QF
France	75,26		[78,92]
Spain	65,15		[70,27]
Germany	61,82		[65,86]
England	61,81		[66,14]
Portugal	60,82		[62,63]
Belgium	57,81		[59,78]
Netherlands	53,70		[63,93]
Italy	53,67		[60,87]
Croatia	53,47		[61,08]
Ukraine	36,48		[42,82]
Austria	30,06		[49,50]
Denmark	26,63		[39,80]
Hungary	26,45		[40,48]
Serbia	20,45		[35,22]
Switzerland	20,02		[35,05]
Czech Republic	17,91		[26,68]
Scotland	16,44		[32,70]
Slovenia	15,27		[32,51]
Turkey	14,82		[24,15]
Poland	9,02		[34,00]
Romania	7,92		[19,30]
Slovakia	7,22		[19,09]
Georgia	5,80		[15,62]
Albania	2,00		[21,14]

Semi finals

team	SF
France	51,19		[68,02]
Germany	37,35		[60,42]
Spain	37,26		[57,19]
Portugal	36,85		[60,59]
England	34,72		[56,17]
Netherlands	29,17		[54,32]
Belgium	28,57		[49,42]
Italy	27,89		[51,97]
Croatia	27,88		[52,14]
Ukraine	14,06		[38,54]
Austria	12,80		[42,58]
Hungary	10,23		[38,68]
Denmark	9,65		[36,24]
Switzerland	7,48		[37,36]
Serbia	6,82		[33,35]
Czech Republic	5,84		[32,61]
Scotland	5,40		[32,85]
Turkey	4,85		[32,73]
Slovenia	4,36		[28,55]
Poland	2,53		[28,05]
Romania	1,68		[21,21]
Slovakia	1,57		[21,75]
Georgia	1,40		[00,00]
Albania	0,45		[00,00]

Final

team	Final
France	32,18		[62,86]
Germany	21,70		[58,10]
Spain	21,18		[56,84]
Portugal	20,09		[54,52]
England	17,40		[50,12]
Belgium	14,88		[52,08]
Netherlands	14,62		[50,12]
Italy	13,71		[49,16]
Croatia	13,56		[48,64]
Ukraine	5,60		[39,83]
Austria	4,89		[38,20]
Hungary	3,97		[38,81]
Denmark	3,36		[34,82]
Switzerland	2,47		[33,02]
Serbia	2,29		[33,58]
Czech Republic	2,02		[34,59]
Scotland	1,63		[30,19]
Turkey	1,36		[28,04]
Slovenia	1,36		[31,19]
Poland	0,71		[28,06]
Georgia	0,35		[25,00]
Romania	0,32		[19,05]
Slovakia	0,31		[19,75]
Albania	0,04		[08,89]

And the winner is:

team	Winner
France	19,56		[60,78]
Germany	12,04		[55,48]
Spain	11,45		[54,06]
Portugal	10,37		[51,62]
England	9,03		[51,90]
Belgium	7,62		[51,21]
Netherlands	6,57		[44,94]
Italy	6,34		[46,24]
Croatia	6,32		[46,61]
Ukraine	2,16		[38,57]
Austria	1,91		[39,06]
Hungary	1,49		[37,53]
Denmark	1,23		[36,61]
Serbia	0,77		[33,62]
Switzerland	0,74		[29,96]
Czech Republic	0,60		[29,70]
Scotland	0,53		[32,52]
Slovenia	0,43		[31,62]
Turkey	0,42		[30,88]
Poland	0,25		[35,21]
Georgia	0,08		[22,86]
Slovakia	0,05		[16,13]
Romania	0,04		[12,50]
Albania	0,00		[00,00]

Then a closer look to the most probable match-ups in the different knock-out stages. A total of 275 different match-ups are generated in this simulation. Here are per match the 10 most probable match-ups presented. Also per knock-out stage a total overview of the 20 most probable match-ups.

First the chances of the 4 group winners of groups B, C, E and F to meet a group third from the other groups in the round of 16:

	nr 3 from group
group winner	A	B	C	D	E	F
B	24,89	0	0	16,73	27,64	30,74
C	0	0	0	34,87	33,12	32,01
E	16,73	39,71	28,54	15,02	0	0
F	24,97	38,17	36,86	0	0	0

Round of 16

A2 - B2 (Berlin 29/6)			A1 - C2 (Dortmund 29/6)
Hungary - Croatia	10,66		Germany - Denmark	17,48
Hungary - Italy	9,86		Germany - Serbia	14,51
Switzerland - Croatia	8,68		Germany - England	14,08
Germany - Croatia	8,68		Germany - Slovenia	11,49
Hungary - Spain	8,40		Hungary - Denmark	6,06
Germany - Italy	8,36		Hungary - Serbia	4,73
Switzerland - Italy	8,30		Hungary - England	4,60
Germany - Spain	7,85		Switzerland - Denmark	4,21
Switzerland - Spain	7,23		Hungary - Slovenia	3,60
Scotland - Croatia	6,54		Switzerland - Serbia	3,28
C1 - nr 3 (Gelsenkirchen 30/6)			B1 - nr 3 (Cologne 30/6)
England - Austria	6,77		Spain - Czech Republic	5,33
England - Czech Republic	6,74		Spain - Slovakia	4,39
England - Turkey	6,38		Spain - Turkey	3,86
England - Slovakia	6,29		Spain - Georgia	3,66
England - Netherlands	5,99		Spain - Romania	3,61
England - Romania	5,73		Spain - Switzerland	3,51
England - Ukraine	5,35		Spain - Scotland	3,33
England - Georgia	4,86		Spain - Ukraine	3,14
England - Poland	4,21		Croatia - Czech Republic	2,97
England - Belgium	2,42		Italy - Czech Republic	2,89
D2 - E2 (Dusseldorf 1/7)			F1 - nr 3 (Frankfurt 1/7)
Netherlands - Ukraine	15,11		Portugal - Italy	9,70
Netherlands - Belgium	12,44		Portugal - Serbia	8,72
France - Ukraine	9,80		Portugal - Croatia	8,54
Austria - Ukraine	9,63		Portugal - Slovenia	6,86
France - Belgium	7,88		Portugal - Denmark	6,65
Netherlands - Romania	7,53		Portugal - Spain	5,39
Austria - Belgium	7,45		Portugal - Scotland	5,13
Netherlands - Slovakia	4,96		Portugal - Switzerland	4,61
France - Romania	4,42		Portugal - Hungary	4,17
Austria - Romania	4,35		Portugal - England	3,91
E1 - nr 3 (Munchen 2/7)			D1 - F2 (Leipzig 2/7)
Belgium - Italy	8,42		France - Czech Republic	18,92
Belgium - Croatia	7,56		France - Turkey	18,30
Belgium - Serbia	5,67		France - Portugal	13,24
Belgium - Spain	4,98		France - Georgia	10,55
Ukraine - Italy	4,98		Netherlands - Turkey	7,70
Ukraine - Croatia	4,41		Netherlands - Czech Republic	6,94
Belgium - Slovenia	4,31		Netherlands - Portugal	5,34
Belgium - Denmark	4,28		Netherlands - Georgia	4,12
Belgium - Scotland	3,02		Austria - Turkey	3,96
Belgium - Austria	2,96		Austria - Czech Republic	3,86
Total Round of 16
Czech Republic - France	18,92
France - Turkey	18,30
Denmark - Germany	17,48
Netherlands - Ukraine	16,52
Belgium - Netherlands	14,90
Germany - Serbia	14,51
England - Germany	14,08
France - Portugal	13,24
Croatia - Hungary	12,41
Hungary - Italy	11,50
Germany - Slovenia	11,49
Austria - Ukraine	11,29
Hungary - Spain	11,10
Spain - Switzerland	10,74
Croatia - Switzerland	10,59
France - Georgia	10,55
Italy - Portugal	10,53
Austria - Belgium	10,41
France - Ukraine	10,24
Italy - Switzerland	10,13

Quarter finals

B1/nr 3 - A1/C2 (Stuttgart 5/7) F1/nr 3 - D2/E2 (Hamburg 5/7) Spain - Germany 16,18 Portugal - Netherlands 12,51 Croatia - Germany 8,50 Portugal - France 9,61 Italy - Germany 8,08 Portugal - Belgium 7,60 Spain - England 4,30 Portugal - Ukraine 7,03 Spain - Hungary 3,78 Portugal - Austria 6,97 Spain - Denmark 3,78 Italy - Netherlands 1,87 Spain - Serbia 2,94 Portugal - Poland 1,84 Spain - Switzerland 2,65 Czech Republic - Netherlands 1,81 Italy - England 2,63 Portugal - Romania 1,75 Croatia - England 2,61 Croatia - Netherlands 1,58 C1/nr 3 - A2/B2 (Dusseldorf 6//7) E1/nr 3 - D1/F2 (Berlin 6//7) England - Croatia 9,54 Belgium - France 19,43 England - Italy 9,14 Ukraine - France 9,16 England - Spain 8,36 Belgium - Netherlands 7,07 England - Germany 6,07 Italy - France 3,99 England - Hungary 4,89 Belgium - Portugal 3,58 England - Switzerland 3,59 Croatia - France 3,15 England - Scotland 2,59 Belgium - Austria 3,02 Denmark - Spain 2,35 Ukraine - Netherlands 2,86 Denmark - Croatia 2,26 Spain - France 2,48 Denmark - Italy 2,04 Belgium - Czech Republic 2,28 Total Quarter finals Belgium - France 19,43 Germany - Spain 16,18 England - Spain 12,66 Netherlands - Portugal 12,63 Croatia - England 12,15 England - Italy 11,77 Belgium - Portugal 11,18 France - Portugal 9,82 France - Ukraine 9,16 Portugal - Ukraine 8,64 Croatia - Germany 8,50 Germany - Italy 8,08 Austria - Portugal 7,24 Belgium - Netherlands 7,07 England - Germany 6,38 Denmark - Spain 6,13 France - Italy 5,96 England - Hungary 5,14 Croatia - France 5,01 Italy - Netherlands 4,50

Semi finals

Total Semi finals England - France 10,68 Germany - Portugal 8,56 Portugal - Spain 7,30 France - Spain 7,23 France - Germany 6,36 Croatia - France 6,10 Belgium - England 5,71 France - Italy 5,20 Germany - Netherlands 4,53 Netherlands - Spain 4,49 Italy - Portugal 4,11 Belgium - Spain 3,98 Croatia - Portugal 3,95 Belgium - Germany 3,93 England - Netherlands 3,90 Belgium - Croatia 3,24 England - Portugal 3,21 Italy - Netherlands 3,18 Croatia - Netherlands 3,14 Belgium - Italy 3,05

Final

Total Final
France - Portugal	5,29
France - Germany	4,81
France - Spain	3,93
France - Netherlands	3,62
England - Portugal	2,73
England - Spain	2,48
England - Germany	2,28
Italy - Spain	2,26
Croatia - Spain	2,26
Belgium - France	2,22
France - Italy	2,21
England - France	2,20
Croatia - France	2,12
Belgium - Germany	2,11
Germany - Spain	1,99
Belgium - Portugal	1,97
Belgium - Spain	1,88
Germany - Netherlands	1,73
Croatia - Germany	1,67
Germany - Italy	1,64

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.