Here are the probable results of all 103 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including July 14th, used to calculate the July 2024 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since June 12th, (probably) counting for the July ranking, are presented.
In the first column is indicated if the match is included or not, according to my inclusion-method. You see after the match identification data, the I-factor, the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo and according to FIFA in %.
For the already played matches the match result and the exchanged points are given.
For the scheduled matches the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team are given. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) of loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.
Normally the home team's gained points will be the away-team's lost points. Still, both are given because there are in FIFA's calculation approach cases when they will not be the same: PSO-matches and knock-out matches in final competitions.
Before posting comments like: "Hey, my team actually beat the other team ! It's a mistake !" please take note that these are calculated predictions of scheduled matches. So no, they don't constitute my personal opinion about the matches. Just mathematics doing the job :)
At the end of this post I present the elo and FIFA prediction success rates for all matches played for the previous rankings this year and in total over 2024 until now.
Already played |
|||||||
incl. |
date |
match |
tournament |
I |
We (elo) |
We (FIFA) |
res and exchanged pts |
Y |
2024-06-12 |
ECU - BOL |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
83 |
71 |
W: 1,451/-1,451 |
Y |
2024-06-12 |
USA - BRA |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
32 |
39 |
D: 0,549/-0,549 |
Scheduled |
||||||||||||
incl. |
date |
match |
tournament |
I |
We (elo) |
pred elo |
We (FIFA) |
W |
D |
L |
PSO-W |
PSO-L |
Y |
2024-06-14 |
ARG - GUA |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
98 |
1 |
93 |
0,4/-0,4 |
-2,1/2,1 |
-4,6/4,6 |
||
Y |
2024-06-14 |
SLV - PER |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
12 |
2 |
31 |
3,5/-3,5 |
1,0/-1,0 |
-1,5/1,5 |
||
Y |
2024-06-14 |
GER - SCO |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
81 |
1 |
64 |
12,6/-12,6 |
-4,9/4,9 |
-22,4/22,4 |
||
Y |
2024-06-15 |
COL - BOL |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
92 |
1 |
82 |
0,9/-0,9 |
-1,6/1,6 |
-4,1/4,1 |
||
Y |
2024-06-15 |
SOL - VAN |
OFC Nations Cup 2024 |
35 |
30 |
1 |
63 |
12,9/-12,9 |
-4,6/4,6 |
-22,1/22,1 |
||
Y |
2024-06-15 |
HUN - SUI |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
54 |
X |
42 |
20,4/-20,4 |
2,9/-2,9 |
-14,6/14,6 |
||
Y |
2024-06-15 |
ITA - ALB |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
87 |
1 |
79 |
7,4/-7,4 |
-10,1/10,1 |
-27,6/27,6 |
||
Y |
2024-06-15 |
ESP - CRO |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
57 |
X |
50 |
17,4/-17,4 |
-0,1/0,1 |
-17,6/17,6 |
||
Y |
2024-06-16 |
ECU - HON |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
89 |
1 |
69 |
1,6/-1,6 |
-0,9/0,9 |
-3,4/3,4 |
||
Y |
2024-06-16 |
PAN - PAR |
Friendly 2024 |
5 |
63 |
X |
55 |
2,2/-2,2 |
-0,3/0,3 |
-2,8/2,8 |
||
Y |
2024-06-16 |
PNG - FIJ |
OFC Nations Cup 2024 |
35 |
80 |
2 |
50 |
17,4/-17,4 |
-0,1/0,1 |
-17,6/17,6 |
||
Y |
2024-06-16 |
TAH - SAM |
OFC Nations Cup 2024 |
35 |
93 |
1 |
58 |
14,9/-14,9 |
-2,6/2,6 |
-20,1/20,1 |
||
Y |
2024-06-16 |
SRB - ENG |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
26 |
2 |
26 |
25,9/-25,9 |
8,4/-8,4 |
-9,1/9,1 |
||
Y |
2024-06-16 |
SVN - DEN |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
36 |
2 |
33 |
23,3/-23,3 |
5,8/-5,8 |
-11,7/11,7 |
||
Y |
2024-06-16 |
POL - NED |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
21 |
2 |
31 |
24,1/-24,1 |
6,6/-6,6 |
-10,9/10,9 |
||
Y |
2024-06-17 |
AUT - FRA |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
22 |
2 |
26 |
26,1/-26,1 |
8,6/-8,6 |
-8,9/8,9 |
||
Y |
2024-06-17 |
BEL - SVK |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
86 |
1 |
78 |
7,7/-7,7 |
-9,8/9,8 |
-27,3/27,3 |
||
Y |
2024-06-17 |
ROU - UKR |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
24 |
2 |
40 |
20,9/-20,9 |
3,4/-3,4 |
-14,1/14,1 |
||
Y |
2024-06-18 |
NZL - SOL |
OFC Nations Cup 2024 |
35 |
79 |
1 |
57 |
15,0/-15,0 |
-2,5/2,5 |
-20,0/20,0 |
||
Y |
2024-06-18 |
POR - CZE |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
78 |
1 |
72 |
9,9/-9,9 |
-7,6/7,6 |
-25,1/25,1 |
||
Y |
2024-06-18 |
TUR - GEO |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
62 |
1 |
64 |
12,5/-12,5 |
-5,0/5,0 |
-22,5/22,5 |
||
Y |
2024-06-19 |
PNG - TAH |
OFC Nations Cup 2024 |
35 |
34 |
2 |
46 |
19,1/-19,1 |
1,6/-1,6 |
-15,9/15,9 |
||
Y |
2024-06-19 |
SAM - FIJ |
OFC Nations Cup 2024 |
35 |
97 |
2 |
41 |
20,7/-20,7 |
3,2/-3,2 |
-14,3/14,3 |
||
Y |
2024-06-19 |
GER - HUN |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
76 |
1 |
62 |
13,3/-13,3 |
-4,2/4,2 |
-21,7/21,7 |
||
Y |
2024-06-19 |
SCO - SUI |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
43 |
X |
38 |
21,8/-21,8 |
4,3/-4,3 |
-13,2/13,2 |
||
Y |
2024-06-19 |
CRO - ALB |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
89 |
1 |
80 |
7,1/-7,1 |
-10,4/10,4 |
-27,9/27,9 |
||
Y |
2024-06-20 |
ARG - CAN |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
92 |
1 |
82 |
6,2/-6,2 |
-11,3/11,3 |
-28,8/28,8 |
||
Y |
2024-06-20 |
ESP - ITA |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
58 |
X |
50 |
17,6/-17,6 |
0,1/-0,1 |
-17,4/17,4 |
||
Y |
2024-06-20 |
DEN - ENG |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
31 |
2 |
34 |
23,2/-23,2 |
5,7/-5,7 |
-11,8/11,8 |
||
Y |
2024-06-20 |
SVN - SRB |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
40 |
X |
42 |
20,4/-20,4 |
2,9/-2,9 |
-14,6/14,6 |
||
Y |
2024-06-21 |
PER - CHI |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
52 |
X |
52 |
16,8/-16,8 |
-0,7/0,7 |
-18,2/18,2 |
||
Y |
2024-06-21 |
VAN - NZL |
OFC Nations Cup 2024 |
35 |
9 |
2 |
27 |
25,4/-25,4 |
7,9/-7,9 |
-9,6/9,6 |
||
Y |
2024-06-21 |
NED - FRA |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
35 |
2 |
41 |
20,5/-20,5 |
3,0/-3,0 |
-14,5/14,5 |
||
Y |
2024-06-21 |
POL - AUT |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
34 |
2 |
48 |
18,2/-18,2 |
0,7/-0,7 |
-16,8/16,8 |
||
Y |
2024-06-21 |
SVK - UKR |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
24 |
2 |
39 |
21,4/-21,4 |
3,9/-3,9 |
-13,6/13,6 |
||
Y |
2024-06-22 |
ECU - VEN |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
68 |
1 |
57 |
14,9/-14,9 |
-2,6/2,6 |
-20,1/20,1 |
||
Y |
2024-06-22 |
MEX - JAM |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
70 |
1 |
69 |
10,8/-10,8 |
-6,7/6,7 |
-24,2/24,2 |
||
Y |
2024-06-22 |
FIJ - TAH |
OFC Nations Cup 2024 |
35 |
68 |
1 |
49 |
18,0/-18,0 |
0,5/-0,5 |
-17,0/17,0 |
||
Y |
2024-06-22 |
SAM - PNG |
OFC Nations Cup 2024 |
35 |
14 |
2 |
44 |
19,5/-19,5 |
2,0/-2,0 |
-15,5/15,5 |
||
Y |
2024-06-22 |
BEL - ROU |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
89 |
1 |
80 |
7,1/-7,1 |
-10,4/10,4 |
-27,9/27,9 |
||
Y |
2024-06-22 |
GEO - CZE |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
33 |
2 |
34 |
23,0/-23,0 |
5,5/-5,5 |
-12,0/12,0 |
||
Y |
2024-06-22 |
TUR - POR |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
20 |
2 |
28 |
25,3/-25,3 |
7,8/-7,8 |
-9,7/9,7 |
||
Y |
2024-06-23 |
URU - PAN |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
85 |
1 |
67 |
11,6/-11,6 |
-5,9/5,9 |
-23,4/23,4 |
||
Y |
2024-06-23 |
USA - BOL |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
86 |
1 |
82 |
6,3/-6,3 |
-11,2/11,2 |
-28,7/28,7 |
||
Y |
2024-06-23 |
SCO - HUN |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
42 |
X |
47 |
18,5/-18,5 |
1,0/-1,0 |
-16,5/16,5 |
||
Y |
2024-06-23 |
SUI - GER |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
80 |
2 |
44 |
19,6/-19,6 |
2,1/-2,1 |
-15,4/15,4 |
||
Y |
2024-06-24 |
BRA - CRC |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
91 |
1 |
79 |
7,5/-7,5 |
-10,0/10,0 |
-27,5/27,5 |
||
Y |
2024-06-24 |
COL - PAR |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
86 |
1 |
72 |
9,9/-9,9 |
-7,6/7,6 |
-25,1/25,1 |
||
Y |
2024-06-24 |
ALB - ESP |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
9 |
2 |
20 |
28,1/-28,1 |
10,6/-10,6 |
-6,9/6,9 |
||
Y |
2024-06-24 |
CRO - ITA |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
52 |
X |
50 |
17,4/-17,4 |
-0,1/0,1 |
-17,6/17,6 |
||
Y |
2024-06-25 |
CHI - ARG |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
8 |
2 |
19 |
28,2/-28,2 |
10,7/-10,7 |
-6,8/6,8 |
||
Y |
2024-06-25 |
PER - CAN |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
54 |
X |
56 |
15,5/-15,5 |
-2,0/2,0 |
-19,5/19,5 |
||
Y |
2024-06-25 |
DEN - SRB |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
58 |
X |
60 |
13,9/-13,9 |
-3,6/3,6 |
-21,1/21,1 |
||
Y |
2024-06-25 |
ENG - SVN |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
84 |
1 |
82 |
6,4/-6,4 |
-11,1/11,1 |
-28,6/28,6 |
||
Y |
2024-06-25 |
FRA - POL |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
90 |
1 |
79 |
7,3/-7,3 |
-10,2/10,2 |
-27,7/27,7 |
||
Y |
2024-06-25 |
NED - AUT |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
64 |
1 |
66 |
11,8/-11,8 |
-5,7/5,7 |
-23,2/23,2 |
||
Y |
2024-06-26 |
ECU - JAM |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
82 |
1 |
60 |
14,1/-14,1 |
-3,4/3,4 |
-20,9/20,9 |
||
Y |
2024-06-26 |
VEN - MEX |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
39 |
X |
29 |
24,9/-24,9 |
7,4/-7,4 |
-10,1/10,1 |
||
Y |
2024-06-26 |
SVK - ROU |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
53 |
X |
51 |
17,3/-17,3 |
-0,2/0,2 |
-17,7/17,7 |
||
Y |
2024-06-26 |
UKR - BEL |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
33 |
2 |
30 |
24,5/-24,5 |
7,0/-7,0 |
-10,5/10,5 |
||
Y |
2024-06-26 |
CZE - TUR |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
54 |
X |
51 |
17,1/-17,1 |
-0,4/0,4 |
-17,9/17,9 |
||
Y |
2024-06-26 |
GEO - POR |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
9 |
2 |
15 |
29,8/-29,8 |
12,3/-12,3 |
-5,2/5,2 |
||
Y |
2024-06-27 |
PAN - USA |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
79 |
2 |
31 |
24,3/-24,3 |
6,8/-6,8 |
-10,7/10,7 |
||
Y |
2024-06-27 |
URU - BOL |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
92 |
1 |
82 |
6,2/-6,2 |
-11,3/11,3 |
-28,8/28,8 |
||
Y |
2024-06-27 |
NZL - TAH |
OFC Nations Cup 2024 |
40 |
89 |
1 |
69 |
12,4/0,0 |
0,0/7,6 |
0,0/27,6 |
2,4/7,6 |
0,0/17,6 |
Y |
2024-06-27 |
FIJ - SOL |
OFC Nations Cup 2024 |
40 |
44 |
SOL pso win |
43 |
22,9/0,0 |
2,9/0,0 |
0,0/17,1 |
12,9/0,0 |
2,9/7,1 |
Y |
2024-06-28 |
COL - CRC |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
91 |
1 |
71 |
10,1/-10,1 |
-7,4/7,4 |
-24,9/24,9 |
||
Y |
2024-06-28 |
PAR - BRA |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
12 |
2 |
19 |
28,4/-28,4 |
10,9/-10,9 |
-6,6/6,6 |
||
Y |
2024-06-29 |
ARG - PER |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
91 |
1 |
80 |
7,0/-7,0 |
-10,5/10,5 |
-28,0/28,0 |
||
Y |
2024-06-29 |
CAN - CHI |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
49 |
X |
47 |
18,6/-18,6 |
1,1/-1,1 |
-16,4/16,4 |
||
Y |
2024-06-29 |
GER - DEN |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
78 |
1 |
58 |
14,8/0,0 |
0,0/2,7 |
0,0/20,2 |
6,0/2,7 |
0,0/11,5 |
Y |
2024-06-29 |
HUN - CRO |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
28 |
2 |
30 |
24,4/0,0 |
6,9/0,0 |
0,0/10,6 |
15,7/0,0 |
6,9/1,8 |
Y |
2024-06-30 |
JAM - VEN |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
34 |
2 |
48 |
18,1/-18,1 |
0,6/-0,6 |
-16,9/16,9 |
||
Y |
2024-06-30 |
MEX - ECU |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
36 |
2 |
60 |
13,9/-13,9 |
-3,6/3,6 |
-21,1/21,1 |
||
Y |
2024-06-30 |
NZL - SOL |
OFC Nations Cup 2024 |
40 |
82 |
1 |
61 |
15,5/0,0 |
0,0/4,5 |
0,0/24,5 |
5,5/4,5 |
0,0/14,5 |
Y |
2024-06-30 |
FIJ - TAH |
OFC Nations Cup 2024 |
40 |
60 |
FIJ pso win |
52 |
19,1/0,0 |
0,0/0,9 |
0,0/20,9 |
9,1/0,9 |
0,0/10,9 |
Y |
2024-06-30 |
ESP - AUT |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
72 |
1 |
67 |
11,7/0,0 |
0,0/5,8 |
0,0/23,3 |
2,9/5,8 |
0,0/14,6 |
Y |
2024-06-30 |
ENG - TUR |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
82 |
1 |
77 |
8,0/0,0 |
0,0/9,5 |
0,0/27,0 |
0,0/9,5 |
0,0/18,3 |
Y |
2024-07-01 |
BOL - PAN |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
37 |
2 |
32 |
23,7/-23,7 |
6,2/-6,2 |
-11,3/11,3 |
||
Y |
2024-07-01 |
USA - URU |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
39 |
2 |
51 |
17,1/-17,1 |
-0,4/0,4 |
-17,9/17,9 |
||
Y |
2024-07-01 |
POR - ITA |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
59 |
POR pso win |
54 |
16,2/0,0 |
0,0/1,3 |
0,0/18,8 |
7,4/1,3 |
0,0/10,1 |
Y |
2024-07-01 |
NED - UKR |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
67 |
1 |
66 |
11,9/0,0 |
0,0/5,6 |
0,0/23,1 |
3,2/5,6 |
0,0/14,3 |
Y |
2024-07-02 |
BRA - COL |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
52 |
X |
61 |
13,7/-13,7 |
-3,8/3,8 |
-21,3/21,3 |
||
Y |
2024-07-02 |
CRC - PAR |
Copa America 2024 |
35 |
39 |
X |
52 |
16,6/-16,6 |
-0,9/0,9 |
-18,4/18,4 |
||
Y |
2024-07-02 |
FRA - CZE |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
87 |
1 |
80 |
7,0/0,0 |
0,0/10,5 |
0,0/28,0 |
0,0/10,5 |
0,0/19,3 |
Y |
2024-07-02 |
BEL - SUI |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
35 |
78 |
1 |
71 |
10,3/0,0 |
0,0/7,2 |
0,0/24,7 |
1,5/7,2 |
0,0/16,0 |
Y |
2024-07-04 |
ARG - MEX |
Copa America 2024 |
40 |
89 |
1 |
72 |
11,2/0,0 |
0,0/8,8 |
0,0/28,8 |
1,2/8,8 |
0,0/18,8 |
Y |
2024-07-05 |
ECU - PER |
Copa America 2024 |
40 |
74 |
1 |
56 |
17,6/0,0 |
0,0/2,4 |
0,0/22,4 |
7,6/2,4 |
0,0/12,4 |
Y |
2024-07-05 |
ESP - GER |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
40 |
55 |
GER pso win |
54 |
18,3/0,0 |
0,0/1,7 |
0,0/21,7 |
8,3/1,7 |
0,0/11,7 |
Y |
2024-07-05 |
POR - NED |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
40 |
53 |
POR pso win |
51 |
19,5/0,0 |
0,0/0,5 |
0,0/20,5 |
9,5/0,5 |
0,0/10,5 |
Y |
2024-07-06 |
URU - COL |
Copa America 2024 |
40 |
49 |
COL pso win |
50 |
19,8/0,0 |
0,0/0,2 |
0,0/20,2 |
9,8/0,2 |
0,0/10,2 |
Y |
2024-07-06 |
BRA - USA |
Copa America 2024 |
40 |
32 |
1 |
62 |
15,2/0,0 |
0,0/4,8 |
0,0/24,8 |
5,2/4,8 |
0,0/14,8 |
Y |
2024-07-06 |
ENG - CRO |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
40 |
55 |
ENG pso win |
57 |
17,1/0,0 |
0,0/2,9 |
0,0/22,9 |
7,1/2,9 |
0,0/12,9 |
Y |
2024-07-06 |
BEL - FRA |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
40 |
37 |
2 |
46 |
21,6/0,0 |
1,6/0,0 |
0,0/18,4 |
11,6/0,0 |
1,6/8,4 |
Y |
2024-07-09 |
ARG - ECU |
Copa America 2024 |
40 |
78 |
1 |
76 |
9,5/0,0 |
0,0/10,5 |
0,0/30,5 |
0,0/10,5 |
0,0/20,5 |
Y |
2024-07-09 |
GER - POR |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
40 |
56 |
GER pso win |
43 |
22,8/0,0 |
2,8/0,0 |
0,0/17,2 |
12,8/0,0 |
2,8/7,2 |
Y |
2024-07-10 |
COL - BRA |
Copa America 2024 |
40 |
46 |
BRA pso win |
39 |
24,3/0,0 |
4,3/0,0 |
0,0/15,7 |
14,3/0,0 |
4,3/5,7 |
Y |
2024-07-10 |
FRA - ENG |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
40 |
66 |
1 |
56 |
17,5/0,0 |
0,0/2,5 |
0,0/22,5 |
7,5/2,5 |
0,0/12,5 |
Y |
2024-07-13 |
ECU - COL |
Copa America 2024 |
40 |
35 |
2 |
39 |
24,6/0,0 |
4,6/0,0 |
0,0/15,4 |
14,6/0,0 |
4,6/5,4 |
Y |
2024-07-14 |
ARG - BRA |
Copa America 2024 |
40 |
66 |
1 |
57 |
17,0/0,0 |
0,0/3,0 |
0,0/23,0 |
7,0/3,0 |
0,0/13,0 |
Y |
2024-07-14 |
GER - FRA |
UEFA EURO 2024 |
40 |
36 |
2 |
33 |
26,8/0,0 |
6,8/0,0 |
0,0/13,2 |
16,8/0,0 |
6,8/3,2 |
Prediction success rates |
|||||||||
|
based on ELO We |
based on FIFA We |
number of matches included |
||||||
period |
all |
friendlies |
competitive |
all |
friendlies |
competitive |
all |
friendlies |
competitive |
2024 |
56,3% |
52,7% |
59,2% |
56,3% |
51,0% |
60,6% |
528 |
241 |
287 |
feb-24 |
49,7% |
52,0% |
48,5% |
47,1% |
48,0% |
46,6% |
153 |
50 |
103 |
apr-24 |
54,3% |
48,3% |
64,7% |
57,6% |
50,0% |
70,6% |
184 |
116 |
68 |
jun-24 |
63,4% |
60,3% |
65,5% |
60,8% |
51,3% |
67,2% |
194 |
78 |
116 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
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