FIFA will publish the July ranking next Thursday July 18th.
I have included the forfeited WC-qualifier Congo - Niger. There is yet no decision taken by FIFA regarding the postponed WC-qualifier Cuba - Cayman Islands, so I excluded that one from this preview.
This weekend there are still 3 matches to be played: tonight the third place play-off Canada - Uruguay in the Copa America 2024 and tomorrow the two continental finals, in the Copa Argentina - Colombia and in the EURO 2024 Spain - England.
The points and positions of the involved teams will be adjusted as follows:
Canada - Uruguay |
||||
CAN pts |
CAN pos |
URU pts |
URU pos |
|
CAN win |
1514,66 |
32 |
1711,28 |
11 |
CAN PSO win |
1504,66 |
34 |
1711,28 |
11 |
URU PSO win |
1494,66 |
40 |
1713,15 |
11 |
URU win |
1486,53 |
43 |
1723,15 |
10 |
Argentina - Colombia |
||||
ARG pts |
ARG pos |
COL pts |
COL pos |
|
ARG win |
1901,49 |
1 |
1727,32 |
9 |
ARG PSO win |
1891,49 |
1 |
1733,28 |
9 |
COL PSO win |
1887,44 |
1 |
1743,28 |
8 |
COL win |
1887,44 |
1 |
1753,28 |
8 |
Spain - England |
||||
ESP pts |
ESP pos |
ENG pts |
ENG pos |
|
ESP win |
1835,67 |
3 |
1812,26 |
4 |
ESP PSO win |
1825,67 |
3 |
1812,39 |
4 |
ENG PSO win |
1815,81 |
4 |
1822,39 |
3 |
ENG win |
1815,81 |
4 |
1832,39 |
3 |
Elo predicts a win for Uruguay and Spain and a PSO win for Argentina.
This ranking will be used as seeding ranking for the draw of the OFC qualification for the World Cup 2026, to start in the September 2024 window. The draw date is unknown yet.
No teams will reach new highs or drop to new lows in this ranking.
Best movers:
17 - Venezuela
16 - Turkey
13 - New Zealand, Fiji
Worst movers:
-13 - Czech Republic
-11 - Samoa
-10 - Peru
Best movers in the top 50:
17 - Venezuela
16 - Turkey
8 - Panama
Worst movers in the top 50:
-13 - Czech Republic
-10 - Peru
-9 - Scotland
pos Jul. |
team |
pts Jul. |
+/- pos |
+/- pts |
1 |
Argentina |
1891,49 |
0 |
31,35 |
2 |
France |
1854,91 |
0 |
17,44 |
3 |
Spain |
1835,67 |
5 |
105,75 |
4 |
England |
1812,26 |
1 |
24,38 |
5 |
Brazil |
1785,61 |
-1 |
-6,24 |
6 |
Belgium |
1772,44 |
-3 |
-25,54 |
7 |
Netherlands |
1758,51 |
0 |
11,85 |
8 |
Portugal |
1741,43 |
-2 |
-5,61 |
9 |
Colombia |
1733,28 |
3 |
63,84 |
10 |
Uruguay |
1723,15 |
4 |
59,71 |
11 |
Italy |
1714,29 |
-1 |
-10,08 |
12 |
Croatia |
1701,31 |
-3 |
-26,99 |
13 |
Germany |
1686,02 |
3 |
39,24 |
14 |
Morocco |
1669,44 |
-2 |
0 |
15 |
Switzerland |
1654,10 |
4 |
36,86 |
16 |
USA |
1641,75 |
-5 |
-34,77 |
17 |
Mexico |
1635,11 |
-2 |
-17,22 |
18 |
Japan |
1628,81 |
-1 |
0 |
19 |
Senegal |
1623,34 |
-1 |
0 |
20 |
Iran |
1611,16 |
0 |
0 |
21 |
Denmark |
1607,52 |
0 |
-3,24 |
22 |
Austria |
1591,56 |
3 |
31,53 |
23 |
Korea Republic |
1572,87 |
-1 |
0 |
24 |
Australia |
1571,29 |
-1 |
0 |
25 |
Ukraine |
1567,25 |
-1 |
1,88 |
26 |
Turkey |
1533,60 |
16 |
40,22 |
27 |
Ecuador |
1530,44 |
3 |
12,90 |
28 |
Poland |
1523,53 |
-2 |
-17,96 |
29 |
Sweden |
1522,19 |
-1 |
0 |
30 |
Wales |
1521,40 |
-1 |
0 |
31 |
Hungary |
1518,77 |
-4 |
-10,23 |
32 |
Serbia |
1506,90 |
0 |
-7,86 |
33 |
Russia |
1506,58 |
0 |
0 |
34 |
Qatar |
1504,06 |
1 |
0 |
35 |
Panama |
1502,55 |
8 |
20,45 |
36 |
Egypt |
1502,34 |
0 |
0 |
37 |
Venezuela |
1501,46 |
17 |
59,17 |
38 |
Cote d'Ivoire |
1499,69 |
-1 |
0 |
39 |
Nigeria |
1498,93 |
-1 |
0 |
40 |
Tunisia |
1494,06 |
1 |
0 |
41 |
Peru |
1489,68 |
-10 |
-25,33 |
42 |
Chile |
1489,50 |
-2 |
-6,63 |
43 |
Canada |
1486,53 |
5 |
24,79 |
44 |
Slovakia |
1479,07 |
1 |
11,30 |
45 |
Romania |
1474,70 |
2 |
12,35 |
46 |
Algeria |
1474,13 |
-2 |
0 |
47 |
Czech Republic |
1473,46 |
-13 |
-32,77 |
48 |
Scotland |
1472,30 |
-9 |
-24,88 |
49 |
Costa Rica |
1469,69 |
3 |
15,49 |
50 |
Norway |
1466,48 |
-4 |
0 |
51 |
Cameroon |
1458,47 |
-2 |
0 |
52 |
Slovenia |
1457,06 |
5 |
27,32 |
53 |
Mali |
1456,74 |
-3 |
0 |
54 |
Greece |
1455,95 |
-3 |
0 |
55 |
Iraq |
1433,07 |
0 |
0 |
56 |
Saudi Arabia |
1431,30 |
0 |
0 |
57 |
South Africa |
1415,15 |
2 |
-1,51 |
58 |
Republic of Ireland |
1403,84 |
2 |
0 |
59 |
Jamaica |
1401,56 |
-6 |
-41,26 |
60 |
Congo DR |
1400,93 |
1 |
0 |
61 |
Uzbekistan |
1397,41 |
1 |
0 |
62 |
Paraguay |
1396,80 |
-4 |
-30,31 |
63 |
Finland |
1393,40 |
0 |
0 |
64 |
Ghana |
1381,25 |
0 |
0 |
65 |
Cape Verde Islands |
1380,53 |
0 |
0 |
66 |
Albania |
1375,49 |
0 |
-3,91 |
67 |
Burkina Faso |
1375,16 |
0 |
0 |
68 |
Jordan |
1374,13 |
0 |
0 |
69 |
United Arab Emirates |
1368,84 |
0 |
0 |
70 |
Georgia |
1361,41 |
4 |
22,50 |
71 |
Iceland |
1353,48 |
-1 |
0 |
72 |
North Macedonia |
1348,63 |
-1 |
0 |
73 |
Montenegro |
1345,02 |
-1 |
0 |
74 |
Northern Ireland |
1341,33 |
-1 |
0 |
75 |
Bosnia-Herzegovina |
1332,30 |
0 |
0 |
76 |
Oman |
1326,18 |
0 |
0 |
77 |
Guinea |
1324,80 |
0 |
0 |
78 |
Israel |
1312,54 |
1 |
0 |
79 |
Honduras |
1311,48 |
-1 |
-1,57 |
80 |
Bahrain |
1302,86 |
1 |
0 |
81 |
El Salvador |
1302,11 |
-1 |
-1,54 |
82 |
Bulgaria |
1295,50 |
0 |
0 |
83 |
Gabon |
1288,45 |
0 |
0 |
84 |
Luxembourg |
1276,73 |
1 |
0 |
85 |
Haiti |
1274,46 |
1 |
0 |
86 |
Curacao |
1272,71 |
1 |
0 |
87 |
China PR |
1267,51 |
1 |
0 |
88 |
Equatorial Guinea |
1260,50 |
1 |
0 |
89 |
Bolivia |
1258,56 |
-5 |
-23,87 |
90 |
Angola |
1255,65 |
2 |
6,71 |
91 |
Benin |
1254,18 |
0 |
0 |
92 |
Zambia |
1249,54 |
-2 |
-8,86 |
93 |
Syria |
1246,68 |
0 |
0 |
94 |
New Zealand |
1245,73 |
13 |
48,05 |
95 |
Uganda |
1242,96 |
-1 |
0 |
96 |
Palestine |
1231,25 |
-1 |
0 |
97 |
Armenia |
1230,79 |
-1 |
0 |
98 |
Namibia |
1221,42 |
-1 |
1,59 |
99 |
Belarus |
1219,78 |
-1 |
0 |
100 |
Trinidad and Tobago |
1219,44 |
-1 |
0 |
101 |
Thailand |
1218,56 |
-1 |
0 |
102 |
Kyrgyzstan |
1213,58 |
-1 |
0 |
103 |
Tajikistan |
1212,41 |
-1 |
0 |
104 |
Mozambique |
1208,87 |
-1 |
3,05 |
105 |
Madagascar |
1203,66 |
-1 |
0 |
106 |
Kosovo |
1203,16 |
-1 |
0 |
107 |
Guatemala |
1198,83 |
-1 |
-0,37 |
108 |
Kenya |
1197,73 |
0 |
2,28 |
109 |
Kazakhstan |
1193,62 |
0 |
0 |
110 |
Korea DPR |
1183,96 |
0 |
0 |
111 |
Azerbaijan |
1179,88 |
0 |
0 |
112 |
Mauritania |
1177,50 |
0 |
0 |
113 |
Tanzania |
1174,99 |
1 |
0 |
114 |
Guinea-Bissau |
1168,49 |
1 |
0 |
115 |
Vietnam |
1168,02 |
1 |
0 |
116 |
Lebanon |
1167,64 |
1 |
0 |
117 |
Libya |
1165,73 |
1 |
0 |
118 |
Congo |
1162,73 |
-5 |
-13,72 |
119 |
Comoros |
1159,84 |
0 |
1,13 |
120 |
Togo |
1158,70 |
0 |
0 |
121 |
Sudan |
1152,29 |
0 |
0 |
122 |
Sierra Leone |
1149,40 |
0 |
0 |
123 |
Estonia |
1146,47 |
0 |
0 |
124 |
India |
1139,39 |
0 |
0 |
125 |
Niger |
1139,21 |
3 |
13,71 |
126 |
Malawi |
1137,83 |
-1 |
0 |
127 |
Cyprus |
1136,78 |
-1 |
0 |
128 |
Central African Republic |
1129,30 |
-1 |
0 |
129 |
Zimbabwe |
1126,15 |
0 |
3,61 |
130 |
Nicaragua |
1119,88 |
0 |
0 |
131 |
Rwanda |
1114,15 |
0 |
0 |
132 |
Gambia |
1112,55 |
0 |
0 |
133 |
Indonesia |
1108,73 |
1 |
0 |
134 |
Malaysia |
1107,58 |
1 |
0 |
135 |
Lithuania |
1100,66 |
1 |
0 |
136 |
Kuwait |
1098,42 |
1 |
0 |
137 |
Latvia |
1095,98 |
1 |
0 |
138 |
Faroe Islands |
1093,70 |
1 |
0 |
139 |
Burundi |
1091,24 |
1 |
0 |
140 |
Suriname |
1087,77 |
1 |
0 |
141 |
Solomon Islands |
1075,06 |
-8 |
-35,96 |
142 |
Liberia |
1067,05 |
0 |
0 |
143 |
Ethiopia |
1066,15 |
0 |
0 |
144 |
Turkmenistan |
1065,42 |
0 |
0 |
145 |
Botswana |
1063,64 |
0 |
-0,55 |
146 |
St. Kitts and Nevis |
1059,53 |
0 |
0 |
147 |
Philippines |
1053,03 |
0 |
0 |
148 |
Antigua and Barbuda |
1052,80 |
0 |
0 |
149 |
Lesotho |
1046,54 |
0 |
-4,29 |
150 |
Dominican Republic |
1045,64 |
0 |
0 |
151 |
Afghanistan |
1034,37 |
0 |
0 |
152 |
Moldova |
1033,75 |
0 |
0 |
153 |
Fiji |
1033,09 |
13 |
49,28 |
154 |
Guyana |
1026,61 |
-1 |
0 |
155 |
Eswatini |
1025,28 |
-1 |
0,10 |
156 |
Yemen |
1021,24 |
-1 |
0 |
157 |
Puerto Rico |
1020,22 |
-1 |
0 |
158 |
Tahiti |
1016,83 |
3 |
17,35 |
159 |
Hong Kong |
1011,91 |
-2 |
0 |
160 |
New Caledonia |
1008,92 |
-2 |
0 |
161 |
Singapore |
1008,26 |
-2 |
0 |
162 |
Vanuatu |
1005,49 |
8 |
33,35 |
163 |
Maldives |
1003,48 |
-3 |
0 |
164 |
Andorra |
996,05 |
-2 |
0 |
165 |
Chinese Taipei |
991,34 |
-2 |
0 |
166 |
Myanmar |
988,98 |
-2 |
0 |
167 |
Papua New Guinea |
984,23 |
-2 |
-1,09 |
168 |
South Sudan |
980,02 |
-1 |
0 |
169 |
St. Lucia |
979,57 |
-1 |
0 |
170 |
Cuba |
975,01 |
-1 |
0 |
171 |
Bermuda |
971,15 |
0 |
0 |
172 |
Malta |
970,62 |
0 |
0 |
173 |
Grenada |
953,67 |
0 |
0 |
174 |
St. Vincent and the Grenadines |
938,40 |
0 |
0 |
175 |
Nepal |
935,93 |
0 |
0 |
176 |
Montserrat |
934,46 |
0 |
0 |
177 |
Barbados |
932,63 |
0 |
0 |
178 |
Chad |
929,97 |
0 |
0 |
179 |
Mauritius |
927,94 |
0 |
0 |
180 |
Cambodia |
924,52 |
0 |
0 |
181 |
Dominica |
912,93 |
1 |
0 |
182 |
Bhutan |
904,10 |
1 |
0 |
183 |
Belize |
901,42 |
1 |
0 |
184 |
Bangladesh |
896,67 |
1 |
0 |
185 |
Macau |
896,62 |
1 |
0 |
186 |
Cook Islands |
896,59 |
1 |
0 |
187 |
American Samoa |
890,97 |
1 |
0 |
188 |
Laos |
889,62 |
1 |
0 |
189 |
Mongolia |
884,92 |
1 |
0 |
190 |
Brunei Darussalam |
881,73 |
1 |
0 |
191 |
Sao Tomé e PrÃncipe |
878,09 |
1 |
0 |
192 |
Samoa |
876,45 |
-11 |
-44,09 |
193 |
Djibouti |
875,13 |
0 |
0 |
194 |
Aruba |
873,90 |
0 |
0 |
195 |
Cayman Islands |
865,34 |
0 |
0 |
196 |
Timor-Leste |
843,40 |
0 |
0 |
197 |
Pakistan |
842,59 |
0 |
0 |
198 |
Gibraltar |
836,14 |
0 |
0 |
199 |
Liechtenstein |
835,83 |
0 |
0 |
200 |
Tonga |
833,12 |
0 |
0 |
201 |
Seychelles |
831,19 |
0 |
-0,77 |
202 |
Somalia |
829,81 |
0 |
0 |
203 |
Bahamas |
823,58 |
0 |
0 |
204 |
Guam |
821,91 |
0 |
0 |
205 |
Sri Lanka |
820,32 |
0 |
0 |
206 |
Turks and Caicos Islands |
817,03 |
0 |
0 |
207 |
British Virgin Islands |
801,29 |
0 |
0 |
208 |
US Virgin Islands |
797,29 |
0 |
0 |
209 |
Anguilla |
779,86 |
0 |
0 |
210 |
San Marino |
739,64 |
0 |
0 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
Looks like the draw for the OFC first round is scheduled for Thursday
ReplyDeleteYeah, I saw it announced in the wiki for the OFC WC Qualifying OFC for 18 July, but without a source.
ReplyDeleteI saw the same thing but eventually found it on the FIFA website, so it looks legit
Deletehttps://www.plus.fifa.com/en/content/db1175f3-6372-4f12-b98c-89c2648d6728?gl=us
DeleteFifa has published the new ranking. The more interesting thing is the feature they have added in their site, now is possible to view games played in the last time frame. This feature is valid for the past rankings too. For the match Cayman Islands-Cuba, it looks like they have assigned the win for Cuba.
ReplyDeleteOh, that's good news, Jos. Finally, we get more insight in the included matches in each ranking.
ReplyDeleteStill, only after the ranking is published and not beforehand, but we can't have it all our way, I guess.
Anyway, this is a major step forward in transparency in the ranking calculation. Well done FIFA!
This new 'Match window' feature is added from the April 2019 ranking onwards.
ReplyDeleteIt also seems FIFA treated the forfeited WC-qualifier Congo vs Niger the "easy" way. They just took the points from June and applied them to this match.
ReplyDeleteIndeed, FIFA awarded both postponed World Cup qualifiers from the June window, somewhere at the end of June.
ReplyDeleteFor the Cuba - Cayman Islands match (3:0 awarded to Cuba) the calculation was as if the match was played on the original June 11th, because these two teams didn't play another match until now.
For the Congo - Niger match however (0:3 awarded to Niger, originally scheduled on June 6th ) Congo played in the meantime another qualifier on June 11th against Morocco and that match was included in the June ranking. The awarded match was indeed calculated with the June points for both teams, so effectively for the calculation both Congo matches were switched. Niger didn't play another match after June 6th.
For a second I thought you'd had a typo and just renamed the competition the "Copa Argentina" which, to be fair, may now just be an appropriate title
ReplyDeleteI was just being shorter than short. And then the confusion kicks in :)
DeleteI am looking forward to the AFC WCQ Stage 3 update when you have the time to run simulations.
ReplyDeleteThe next few weeks I will publish simulations for all new tournaments which start in September:
ReplyDelete- UNL24/25
- CNL24/25
- AFCON25q
- AFC27q
- WCq: AFC and OFC start and CONMEBOL continues.
A real international competition sicko's window
DeleteCheers Ed, that will be keeping you very busy !
Delete