FIFA ranking: September 2024 probable ranking

Here is the probable September 2024 ranking, to be published on Thursday September 19th. In the September window we see a varied menu of matches:

- the 12 qualification groups for the AFCON 2025 in Morocco start with the first two match days;

- the CONCACAF Nations League 2024/2025 starts with the first two match days for the groups in leagues A and B and even a third match day in the 3-team groups in league C;

- in the qualification for the AFC Nations Cup 2027 in Saudi Arabia the third stage is played: 3 home-and-away play-offs between the stage 1 losers;

- in World Cup 2026 qualification Asia starts with stage 3, a group stage with 3 groups of 6 teams. The first two match days in a total of 10 are played (until June next year). The group winners and runners-up qualify for the World Cup. Group numbers 3 and 4 progress to stage 4;

- in World Cup 2026 qualification South America continues where they left off last November: match days 7 and 8 in a total of 18 match days are played (until September next year). Group numbers 1 to 6 in the final  group standing qualify for the World Cup, number 7 qualifies for the IPO;

- in World Cup 2026 qualification Oceania starts with stage 1, two one-off semi-finals and a final between the 4 lowest ranked OFC-teams. The winner qualifies for stage 2;

- the UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 starts with the first two match days for all groups in all leagues;

- several friendlies (partly in tournament form like the Merdeka tournament in Malaysia and the Intercontinental Cup in India).

After the window there is a home-and-away play-off scheduled between Brunei Darussalam and Timor-Leste, to qualify for the South East Asian Championship 2024.

FIFA ranking: September 2024 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 199 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including September 15th, used to calculate the September 2024 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since July 15th, (probably) counting for the September ranking, are presented.

Qualification World Cup 2026: 10.000 simulations (August 2024)

In the upcoming September window four new tournaments will start. Here is the last simulation report in a series of four, regarding the qualifications for the World Cup 2026.

In the qualification tournaments for the World Cup 2026 Asia has progressed to stage 3, a group stage consisting of 3 groups of 6 teams each. The draw of the groups was held on June 27th with seedings based on the June 2024 FIFA ranking. This stage is played in a double round robin format, with 2 match days in each of the September, October, November 2024 plus the March and June 2025 windows.

The group winners and runners-up of each group (6 teams in total) qualify for the World Cup. The group numbers three and four qualify for the next stage 4. Asia has 8 direct berths in 2026.

UEFA Nations League 2024/25: 10.000 simulations (August 2024)

In the upcoming September window four new tournaments will start. Here is the third simulation report in a series of four, regarding the UEFA Nations League 2024/25.

In this competition there are 4 leagues. Leagues A to C consist of 4 groups with 4 teams per group. League D consists of two groups of 3 teams. All groups are played in a double round-robin format.

The group stage of this competition will be played on six matchdays in the September, October and November windows. In March next year the new introduced quarterfinal round with 4 home-and-away play-offs between the winners and runners-up of the 4 league A groups will be played, with group winners drawn against a runner-up from another group and playing the second leg at home. The draw for all play-offs is on November 22nd. The winners of the quarter finals advance to the Final Four in June 2025.

CAF Nations Cup 2025 qualification: 10.000 simulations (August 2024)

In the upcoming September window four new tournaments will start. Here is the second simulation report in a series of four, regarding the CAF Nations Cup 2025 qualification.

The CAF Nations Cup 2025 will be played next year in Morocco. Once again the original scheduling of the AFCON in the Summer needs adjustment. This time it's not the expected weather conditions in the host country, but FIFA's expanded Club World Championship next Summer that's forcing the reschedule. The 'normal' alternative (January/February 2026) was further compromised because of the expansion of the league stage of UEFA's Champions League and Europa League with two extra match days ultimo January. The final dates were after ample deliberations therefore set to December 21st 2025 to January 18th 2026.

CONCACAF Nations League 2024/25: 10.000 simulations (August 2024)

In the upcoming September window four new tournaments will start. Here is the first simulation report in a series of four, regarding the CONCACAF Nations League 2024-2025, played until March next year.

The CONCACAF Nations League 2024-25 is the fourth edition of the CNL and will have the same format as the previous edition, played only a year ago:

- league A consists of 16 teams, with the top 4 (according to the CONCACAF ranking of March 2024: Mexico, USA, Panama and Canada) receiving a bye to the quarterfinals. The other 12 teams were drawn on May 6th in two groups of 6, where they will play 4 matches (2 home and 2 away) in a pre-determined schedule against some other group opponents. The numbers one and two from each group play the home-and-away quarter finals against one of the four top dogs in November. The quarter final winners qualify for the Final Four, to be played in March 2025.

- league B consists of 16 teams in 4 groups of 4. They will play a double round-robin against all other group opponents in the September, October and November windows.

- league C consists of the remaining 9 CONCACAF members. They will play in 3 groups of 3 in a double round-robin, with 3 match days in each of the September and October windows.

The matches per FIFA window in leagues B and C will be played in centralized venues to minimize the chance of travelling problems in the Caribbean region.