CAF Nations Cup 2025 qualification: 10.000 simulations (August 2024)

In the upcoming September window four new tournaments will start. Here is the second simulation report in a series of four, regarding the CAF Nations Cup 2025 qualification.

The CAF Nations Cup 2025 will be played next year in Morocco. Once again the original scheduling of the AFCON in the Summer needs adjustment. This time it's not the expected weather conditions in the host country, but FIFA's expanded Club World Championship next Summer that's forcing the reschedule. The 'normal' alternative (January/February 2026) was further compromised because of the expansion of the league stage of UEFA's Champions League and Europa League with two extra match days ultimo January. The final dates were after ample deliberations therefore set to December 21st 2025 to January 18th 2026.

The preliminary play-offs to wittle the 52 entered African teams down to 48 were played last March already. Now the group stage with 12 groups of 4 teams (drawn July 4th) starts with two matchdays in each of the September, October and November windows. The 12 group winners and runners-up qualify for the 24-team continental final.

Notes:

- Host Morocco participates in this qualification. In their group B only the highest ranked team, besides the host, qualifies.

- Eritrea and Seychelles didn't enter this competition.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

First the group results with teams ordered by average group position (column 'avg'). For group B the probability for the other teams in this group to finish as runner-up in the group and still not qualify because Morocco didn't also finish as group winner are given in the last column 'not Q':

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Tunisia	83,50	12,36	3,41	0,73	1,21
Gambia	6,23	30,77	32,61	30,39	2,87
Comoros	5,75	28,89	32,28	33,08	2,93
Madagascar	4,52	27,98	31,70	35,80	2,99
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg	not Q
Morocco	91,53	7,58	0,78	0,11	1,09
Gabon	6,36	55,78	26,79	11,07	2,43	0,28
Central African Republic	1,57	25,35	44,20	28,88	3,00	0,42
Lesotho	0,54	11,29	28,23	59,94	3,48	0,19
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Egypt	58,58	29,66	9,16	2,60	1,56
Cape Verde Islands	33,37	43,80	17,21	5,62	1,95
Mauritania	4,58	14,70	39,45	41,27	3,17
Botswana	3,47	11,84	34,18	50,51	3,32
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Nigeria	62,65	23,07	10,34	3,94	1,56
Benin	15,35	28,80	30,32	25,53	2,66
Libya	14,44	28,90	30,32	26,34	2,69
Rwanda	7,56	19,23	29,02	44,19	3,10
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Algeria	60,76	29,10	8,32	1,82	1,51
Equatorial Guinea	31,78	44,82	18,01	5,39	1,97
Togo	5,68	18,58	45,79	29,95	3,00
Liberia	1,78	7,50	27,88	62,84	3,52
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Angola	45,27	34,25	15,90	4,58	1,80
Ghana	41,32	35,29	17,87	5,52	1,88
Sudan	11,40	22,57	43,22	22,81	2,77
Niger	2,01	7,89	23,01	67,09	3,55
group G	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Cote d'Ivoire	81,25	14,85	3,33	0,57	1,23
Zambia	9,71	41,89	34,03	14,37	2,53
Sierra Leone	7,94	34,54	38,51	19,01	2,69
Chad	1,10	8,72	24,13	66,05	3,55
group H	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Congo DR	51,50	28,45	14,61	5,44	1,74
Guinea	30,79	34,59	23,63	10,99	2,15
Tanzania	12,94	24,44	34,99	27,63	2,77
Ethiopia	4,77	12,52	26,77	55,94	3,34
group I	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Mali	71,12	20,09	6,91	1,88	1,40
Mozambique	16,37	40,14	29,90	13,59	2,41
Guinea-Bissau	10,21	29,13	38,24	22,42	2,73
Eswatini	2,30	10,64	24,95	62,11	3,47
group J	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Cameroon	62,31	23,56	10,52	3,61	1,55
Kenya	19,55	33,21	28,24	19,00	2,47
Namibia	11,49	25,92	31,97	30,62	2,82
Zimbabwe	6,65	17,31	29,27	46,77	3,16
group K	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
South Africa	75,23	18,86	5,11	0,80	1,31
Uganda	16,62	47,22	26,77	9,39	2,29
Congo	7,05	26,31	44,05	22,59	2,82
South Sudan	1,10	7,61	24,07	67,22	3,57
group L	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Senegal	87,51	11,02	1,32	0,15	1,14
Burkina Faso	10,14	58,79	22,60	8,47	2,29
Malawi	1,23	15,51	39,77	43,49	3,26
Burundi	1,12	14,68	36,31	47,89	3,31

The probabilities to qualify for the AFCON 2025:

Morocco	100,00
Senegal	98,53
Cote d'Ivoire	96,10
Tunisia	95,86
South Africa	94,09
Mali	91,21
Algeria	89,86
Egypt	88,24
Cameroon	85,87
Nigeria	85,72
Congo DR	79,95
Angola	79,52
Cape Verde Islands	77,17
Ghana	76,61
Equatorial Guinea	76,60
Burkina Faso	68,93
Guinea	65,38
Uganda	63,84
Gabon	61,86
Mozambique	56,51
Kenya	52,76
Zambia	51,60
Benin	44,15
Libya	43,34
Sierra Leone	42,48
Guinea-Bissau	39,34
Namibia	37,41
Tanzania	37,38
Gambia	37,00
Comoros	34,64
Sudan	33,97
Congo	33,36
Madagascar	32,50
Rwanda	26,79
Central African Republic	26,50
Togo	24,26
Zimbabwe	23,96
Mauritania	19,28
Ethiopia	17,29
Malawi	16,74
Burundi	15,80
Botswana	15,31
Eswatini	12,94
Lesotho	11,64
Niger	9,90
Chad	9,82
Liberia	9,28
South Sudan	8,71

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.