Sunday, August 4, 2024

CAF Nations Cup 2025 qualification: 10.000 simulations (August 2024)

In the upcoming September window four new tournaments will start. Here is the second simulation report in a series of four, regarding the CAF Nations Cup 2025 qualification.


The CAF Nations Cup 2025 will be played next year in Morocco. Once again the original scheduling of the AFCON in the Summer needs adjustment. This time it's not the expected weather conditions in the host country, but FIFA's expanded Club World Championship next Summer that's forcing the reschedule. The 'normal' alternative (January/February 2026) was further compromised because of the expansion of the league stage of UEFA's Champions League and Europa League with two extra match days ultimo January. The final dates were after ample deliberations therefore set to December 21st 2025 to January 18th 2026.


The preliminary play-offs to wittle the 52 entered African teams down to 48 were played last March already. Now the group stage with 12 groups of 4 teams (drawn July 4th) starts with two matchdays in each of the September, October and November windows. The 12 group winners and runners-up qualify for the 24-team continental final.


Notes:

- Host Morocco participates in this qualification. In their group B only the highest ranked team, besides the host, qualifies.

- Eritrea and Seychelles didn't enter this competition.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.


First the group results with teams ordered by average group position (column 'avg'). For group B the probability for the other teams in this group to finish as runner-up in the group and still not qualify because Morocco didn't also finish as group winner are given in the last column 'not Q':


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Tunisia

83,50

12,36

3,41

0,73

1,21

Gambia

6,23

30,77

32,61

30,39

2,87

Comoros

5,75

28,89

32,28

33,08

2,93

Madagascar

4,52

27,98

31,70

35,80

2,99

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

not Q

Morocco

91,53

7,58

0,78

0,11

1,09

Gabon

6,36

55,78

26,79

11,07

2,43

0,28

Central African Republic

1,57

25,35

44,20

28,88

3,00

0,42

Lesotho

0,54

11,29

28,23

59,94

3,48

0,19

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Egypt

58,58

29,66

9,16

2,60

1,56

Cape Verde Islands

33,37

43,80

17,21

5,62

1,95

Mauritania

4,58

14,70

39,45

41,27

3,17

Botswana

3,47

11,84

34,18

50,51

3,32

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Nigeria

62,65

23,07

10,34

3,94

1,56

Benin

15,35

28,80

30,32

25,53

2,66

Libya

14,44

28,90

30,32

26,34

2,69

Rwanda

7,56

19,23

29,02

44,19

3,10

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Algeria

60,76

29,10

8,32

1,82

1,51

Equatorial Guinea

31,78

44,82

18,01

5,39

1,97

Togo

5,68

18,58

45,79

29,95

3,00

Liberia

1,78

7,50

27,88

62,84

3,52

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Angola

45,27

34,25

15,90

4,58

1,80

Ghana

41,32

35,29

17,87

5,52

1,88

Sudan

11,40

22,57

43,22

22,81

2,77

Niger

2,01

7,89

23,01

67,09

3,55

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Cote d'Ivoire

81,25

14,85

3,33

0,57

1,23

Zambia

9,71

41,89

34,03

14,37

2,53

Sierra Leone

7,94

34,54

38,51

19,01

2,69

Chad

1,10

8,72

24,13

66,05

3,55

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Congo DR

51,50

28,45

14,61

5,44

1,74

Guinea

30,79

34,59

23,63

10,99

2,15

Tanzania

12,94

24,44

34,99

27,63

2,77

Ethiopia

4,77

12,52

26,77

55,94

3,34

group I

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Mali

71,12

20,09

6,91

1,88

1,40

Mozambique

16,37

40,14

29,90

13,59

2,41

Guinea-Bissau

10,21

29,13

38,24

22,42

2,73

Eswatini

2,30

10,64

24,95

62,11

3,47

group J

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Cameroon

62,31

23,56

10,52

3,61

1,55

Kenya

19,55

33,21

28,24

19,00

2,47

Namibia

11,49

25,92

31,97

30,62

2,82

Zimbabwe

6,65

17,31

29,27

46,77

3,16

group K

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

South Africa

75,23

18,86

5,11

0,80

1,31

Uganda

16,62

47,22

26,77

9,39

2,29

Congo

7,05

26,31

44,05

22,59

2,82

South Sudan

1,10

7,61

24,07

67,22

3,57

group L

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Senegal

87,51

11,02

1,32

0,15

1,14

Burkina Faso

10,14

58,79

22,60

8,47

2,29

Malawi

1,23

15,51

39,77

43,49

3,26

Burundi

1,12

14,68

36,31

47,89

3,31



The probabilities to qualify for the AFCON 2025:


Morocco

100,00

Senegal

98,53

Cote d'Ivoire

96,10

Tunisia

95,86

South Africa

94,09

Mali

91,21

Algeria

89,86

Egypt

88,24

Cameroon

85,87

Nigeria

85,72

Congo DR

79,95

Angola

79,52

Cape Verde Islands

77,17

Ghana

76,61

Equatorial Guinea

76,60

Burkina Faso

68,93

Guinea

65,38

Uganda

63,84

Gabon

61,86

Mozambique

56,51

Kenya

52,76

Zambia

51,60

Benin

44,15

Libya

43,34

Sierra Leone

42,48

Guinea-Bissau

39,34

Namibia

37,41

Tanzania

37,38

Gambia

37,00

Comoros

34,64

Sudan

33,97

Congo

33,36

Madagascar

32,50

Rwanda

26,79

Central African Republic

26,50

Togo

24,26

Zimbabwe

23,96

Mauritania

19,28

Ethiopia

17,29

Malawi

16,74

Burundi

15,80

Botswana

15,31

Eswatini

12,94

Lesotho

11,64

Niger

9,90

Chad

9,82

Liberia

9,28

South Sudan

8,71



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

2 comments:

  1. What is the point for Morocco to play in qualifiers?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Probably to give them some points-carrying matches this Autumn. The rest of the confederation is qualifying and all other confederations are also busy with Nation League or World Cup qualification. Meaningful opponents for friendlies are hard to find.

      Delete