CONCACAF Nations League 2024/25: 10.000 simulations (August 2024)

In the upcoming September window four new tournaments will start. Here is the first simulation report in a series of four, regarding the CONCACAF Nations League 2024-2025, played until March next year.

The CONCACAF Nations League 2024-25 is the fourth edition of the CNL and will have the same format as the previous edition, played only a year ago:

- league A consists of 16 teams, with the top 4 (according to the CONCACAF ranking of March 2024: Mexico, USA, Panama and Canada) receiving a bye to the quarterfinals. The other 12 teams were drawn on May 6th in two groups of 6, where they will play 4 matches (2 home and 2 away) in a pre-determined schedule against some other group opponents. The numbers one and two from each group play the home-and-away quarter finals against one of the four top dogs in November. The quarter final winners qualify for the Final Four, to be played in March 2025.

- league B consists of 16 teams in 4 groups of 4. They will play a double round-robin against all other group opponents in the September, October and November windows.

- league C consists of the remaining 9 CONCACAF members. They will play in 3 groups of 3 in a double round-robin, with 3 match days in each of the September and October windows.

The matches per FIFA window in leagues B and C will be played in centralized venues to minimize the chance of travelling problems in the Caribbean region.

Promotion and relegation between the leagues for the next CNL edition also remains the same: the numbers 5 and 6 in the two league A groups relegate to league B, while the 4 league B group winners get promoted to league A. 

The 4 league B group numbers 4 relegate to league C while the 3 league C group winners plus the best number 2 get promoted to league B.

This tournament will also serve as qualification for the Gold Cup 2025. CONCACAF devised the following qualification structure:

8 Teams qualify for the Gold Cup qualification play-ins (4 home-and-away playoffs). These matches are formally still part of the Nations League and will be played in November. Participants are:

- the group numbers five and six in league A (4);

- the 3 group winners and the best group runner-up in league C (4).

The exact pairing of these play-ins is based on group stage performance:

best 5th placed team league A - best runner-up league C

worst 5th placed team league A - third-best group winner league C

best 6th placed team league A - second-best group winner league C

worst 6th placed team league A - best group winner league C

The 4 play-in winners qualify for the Gold Cup qualification preliminaries.

Directly qualified for the Gold Cup qualification preliminaries (7 home-and-away playoffs, probably played right before the Gold Cup 2025 kicks off in June 2025) are:

- the losers of the league A quarterfinals (4);

- the group numbers three and four in league A (4);

- the 2 best group runners-up in league B.

They will be joined by the 4 play-in winners. The method of pairing in these play-offs is yet unknown. The 7 preliminary play-off winners qualify for the Gold Cup.

Directly qualified for the Gold Cup are:

- the 4 winners of the league A quarterfinals;

- the 4 group winners in league B;

This accounts for 8 + 7 = 15 teams which can qualify for the Gold Cup. It leaves the final berth open for an invitee (or another buy-in like Qatar, yes, let's do that again!).

The pairing in the quarter finals in league A in November is already known:

1st seed - worst ranked group runner-up in league A

2nd seed - best ranked group runner-up in league A

3rd seed - worst ranked group winner in league A

4th seed - best ranked group winner in league A

The order of the 4 seeds will be based on the CONCACAF October 2024 ranking. As I'm not able to calculate the CONCACAF ranking on the fly during a simulation, I will assume for the following simulations that the order of the seeds remains the same as in the latest July ranking: so Mexico as 1st seed, USA next, then Canada and 4th seed is Panama.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

First the Nations League group results with teams ordered by average group position (in the last column):

 

group A-1
team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Costa Rica	53,41	23,81	11,74	6,63	3,27	1,14	1,86
Martinique	17,84	27,48	19,69	14,75	11,70	8,54	3,01
Guatemala	14,27	15,08	17,96	19,82	18,16	14,71	3,57
Suriname	6,80	12,30	19,14	18,62	20,10	23,04	4,02
Guadeloupe	3,19	10,37	15,11	22,44	27,39	21,50	4,25
Guyana	4,49	10,96	16,36	17,74	19,38	31,07	4,30
group A-2
team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Jamaica	38,58	22,50	16,45	12,64	6,38	3,45	2,36
Honduras	24,02	17,91	17,75	16,52	13,95	9,85	3,08
Trinidad and Tobago	18,14	25,06	18,94	15,85	12,06	9,95	3,08
Nicaragua	10,46	15,02	18,71	19,54	17,99	18,28	3,74
Cuba	4,11	9,90	13,93	18,80	28,16	25,10	4,32
French Guyana	4,69	9,61	14,22	16,65	21,46	33,37	4,41
group B-1
team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
El Salvador	87,59	10,75	1,52	0,14	1,14
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	7,86	48,53	32,70	10,91	2,47
Montserrat	4,28	33,35	43,04	19,33	2,77
Bonaire	0,27	7,37	22,74	69,62	3,62
group B-2
team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Curacao	77,69	16,72	4,72	0,87	1,29
Grenada	10,45	35,80	34,47	19,28	2,63
St. Lucia	9,93	34,44	35,11	20,52	2,66
St. Martin	1,93	13,04	25,70	59,33	3,42
group B-3
team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Haiti	92,74	6,75	0,48	0,03	1,08
Puerto Rico	6,19	63,01	23,82	6,98	2,32
Aruba	1,00	22,27	49,78	26,95	3,03
St. Maarten	0,07	7,97	25,92	66,04	3,58
group B-4
team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Dominican Republic	52,80	27,62	13,96	5,62	1,72
Bermuda	28,72	34,21	22,92	14,15	2,23
Dominica	10,40	21,37	31,89	36,34	2,94
Antigua and Barbuda	8,08	16,80	31,23	43,89	3,11
group C-1
team	1st	2nd	3rd	avg
Barbados	65,97	27,65	6,38	1,40
Bahamas	28,31	52,46	19,23	1,91
US Virgin Islands	5,72	19,89	74,39	2,69
group C-2
team	1st	2nd	3rd	avg
Belize	90,29	8,51	1,20	1,11
Turks and Caicos Islands	7,25	59,63	33,12	2,26
Anguilla	2,46	31,86	65,68	2,63
group C-3
team	1st	2nd	3rd	avg
St. Kitts and Nevis	83,76	14,40	1,84	1,18
Cayman Islands	14,01	63,28	22,71	2,09
British Virgin Islands	2,23	22,32	75,45	2,73

The probabilities for the teams in the league A groups to qualify for the quarter finals by position in the final ranking for both group winners and for both group numbers two. Also their total probability to qualify for the quarters is given in the last column:

team	best nr 1	worst nr 1	best nr 2	worst nr 2	total
Costa Rica	35,60	17,81	16,35	7,46	77,22
Jamaica	18,72	19,86	12,57	9,93	61,08
Martinique	9,99	7,85	14,55	12,93	45,32
Trinidad and Tobago	7,81	10,33	12,89	12,17	43,20
Honduras	9,25	14,77	7,61	10,30	41,93
Guatemala	5,53	8,74	5,73	9,35	29,35
Nicaragua	4,34	6,12	7,98	7,04	25,48
Suriname	3,15	3,65	5,82	6,48	19,10
Guyana	1,58	2,91	4,92	6,04	15,45
Cuba	1,10	3,01	3,32	6,58	14,01
French Guyana	1,76	2,93	4,31	5,30	14,30
Guadeloupe	1,17	2,02	3,95	6,42	13,56
quarter final against	PAN	CAN	USA	MEX

The probabilities to win in the quarter finals (and qualify for the Final Four and the Gold Cup 2025). Also in square brackets the probability to win a quarter final, given a team qualified from the league A group stage:

team	QF-PAN	QF-CAN	QF-USA	QF-MEX	total
Mexico	0,00	0,00	0,00	91,39	91,39
USA	0,00	0,00	86,41	0,00	86,41
Canada	0,00	83,39	0,00	0,00	83,39
Panama	72,44	0,00	0,00	0,00	72,44
Costa Rica	14,42	5,36	4,75	1,84	26,37	[34,15]
Jamaica	5,68	4,60	2,49	1,53	14,30	[23,41]
Honduras	2,16	2,42	1,22	1,42	7,22	[17,22]
Martinique	1,67	0,79	1,42	0,97	4,85	[10,70]
Trinidad and Tobago	1,15	1,01	1,49	0,69	4,34	[10,05]
Guatemala	1,21	1,45	0,75	0,92	4,33	[14,75]
Nicaragua	0,48	0,31	0,36	0,23	1,38	[5,42]
Suriname	0,27	0,19	0,34	0,23	1,03	[5,39]
Guyana	0,17	0,12	0,25	0,23	0,77	[4,98]
Guadeloupe	0,15	0,10	0,22	0,22	0,69	[5,09]
French Guyana	0,11	0,10	0,17	0,17	0,55	[3,85]
Cuba	0,09	0,16	0,13	0,16	0,54	[3,85]

For the Nations League title in the Final Four in March 2025:

team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
USA	35,38	18,01	22,34	10,68
Mexico	23,73	19,56	27,03	21,07
Canada	20,47	18,51	27,95	16,46
Panama	12,90	31,29	8,67	19,58
Costa Rica	4,79	5,70	6,49	9,39
Jamaica	1,39	2,85	3,06	7,00
Honduras	0,52	1,35	1,34	4,01
Guatemala	0,28	0,80	0,88	2,37
Martinique	0,25	0,70	0,91	2,99
Trinidad and Tobago	0,16	0,59	0,74	2,85
Suriname	0,06	0,16	0,03	0,78
Guadeloupe	0,03	0,07	0,06	0,53
Nicaragua	0,02	0,19	0,29	0,88
Guyana	0,01	0,08	0,07	0,61
French Guyana	0,01	0,07	0,09	0,38
Cuba	0,00	0,07	0,05	0,42

Finally the promotion/relegation probabilities:

Promotion
From league B to A	as group winner
Haiti	92,74
El Salvador	87,59
Curacao	77,69
Dominican Republic	52,80
Bermuda	28,72
Grenada	10,45
Dominica	10,40
St. Lucia	9,93
Antigua and Barbuda	8,08
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	7,86
Puerto Rico	6,19
Montserrat	4,28
St. Martin	1,93
Aruba	1,00
Bonaire	0,27
St. Maarten	0,07
From league C to B	as group winner or best nr 2
Belize	94,99
St. Kitts and Nevis	91,94
Barbados	79,96
Bahamas	50,49
Cayman Islands	36,02
Turks and Caicos Islands	21,68
US Virgin Islands	10,70
Anguilla	7,77
British Virgin Islands	6,45
Relegation
From league A to B	as group nrs 5 or 6
French Guyana	54,83
Cuba	53,26
Guyana	50,45
Guadeloupe	48,89
Suriname	43,14
Nicaragua	36,27
Guatemala	32,87
Honduras	23,80
Trinidad and Tobago	22,01
Martinique	20,24
Jamaica	9,83
Costa Rica	4,41
From league B to C	as group nr 4
Bonaire	69,62
St. Maarten	66,04
St. Martin	59,33
Antigua and Barbuda	43,89
Dominica	36,34
Aruba	26,95
St. Lucia	20,52
Montserrat	19,33
Grenada	19,28
Bermuda	14,15
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	10,91
Puerto Rico	6,98
Dominican Republic	5,62
Curacao	0,87
El Salvador	0,14
Haiti	0,03

Qualification for the Gold Cup 2025

First the probabilities regarding qualification for the play-in by position in the final ranking for group numbers 5th and 6th from league A and for group winners and best runner-up from league C. Also their total probability to qualify for the play-in play-offs is given in the last column:

teams league A	best nr 5	worst nr 5	best nr 6	worst nr 6	total
French Guyana	10,89	10,57	16,49	16,88	54,83
Cuba	11,83	16,33	10,84	14,26	53,26
Guyana	8,67	10,71	13,78	17,29	50,45
Guadeloupe	10,70	16,69	8,84	12,66	48,89
Suriname	9,33	10,77	11,15	11,89	43,14
Nicaragua	9,90	8,09	10,23	8,05	36,27
Guatemala	8,74	9,42	7,38	7,33	32,87
Honduras	8,38	5,57	6,19	3,66	23,80
Trinidad and Tobago	7,82	4,24	6,43	3,52	22,01
Martinique	7,31	4,39	5,44	3,10	20,24
Jamaica	4,15	2,23	2,40	1,05	9,83
Costa Rica	2,28	0,99	0,83	0,31	4,41
teams league C	best nr 1	next best nr 1	worst nr 1	best nr 2	total
Belize	46,40	27,70	16,19	4,70	94,99
St. Kitts and Nevis	32,06	30,43	21,27	8,18	91,94
Barbados	14,66	22,59	28,72	13,99	79,96
Bahamas	3,30	9,14	15,87	22,18	50,49
Cayman Islands	2,05	5,12	6,84	22,01	36,02
Turks and Caicos Islands	1,00	2,67	3,58	14,43	21,68
US Virgin Islands	0,24	1,18	4,30	4,98	10,70
Anguilla	0,20	0,67	1,59	5,31	7,77
British Virgin Islands	0,09	0,50	1,64	4,22	6,45

The probabilities to qualify for the play-in play-offs and win a play-in play-off to qualify for the qualification preliminaries. Also in square brackets the probability to win a play-in play-off, given a team qualified for the play-ins:

team	to play-in	to Q prelims
French Guyana	54,83	48,47	[88,40]
Cuba	53,26	47,84	[89,82]
Guadeloupe	48,89	44,86	[91,76]
Guyana	50,45	44,10	[87,41]
Suriname	43,14	38,61	[89,50]
Nicaragua	36,27	33,23	[91,62]
Guatemala	32,87	31,96	[97,23]
Honduras	23,80	23,40	[98,32]
Trinidad and Tobago	22,01	20,85	[94,73]
Martinique	20,24	19,27	[95,21]
St. Kitts and Nevis	91,94	14,29	[15,54]
Belize	94,99	11,69	[12,31]
Jamaica	9,83	9,65	[98,17]
Barbados	79,96	4,72	[5,90]
Costa Rica	4,41	4,40	[99,77]
Cayman Islands	36,02	1,15	[3,19]
Bahamas	50,49	1,02	[2,02]
Turks and Caicos Islands	21,68	0,25	[1,15]
US Virgin Islands	10,70	0,11	[1,03]
British Virgin Islands	6,45	0,07	[1,09]
Anguilla	7,77	0,06	[0,77]

Finally the probabilities to qualify directly for the Gold Cup from the CNL and the total probability to qualify for the qualification preliminaries. As the pairing and structure of the qualification preliminaries is not published yet, I can't give total probabilities to qualify for the Gold Cup yet.

team	Qdir	to Q prelims
Haiti	92,74	6,06
Mexico	91,39	8,61
El Salvador	87,59	8,98
USA	86,41	13,59
Canada	83,39	16,61
Curacao	77,69	11,76
Panama	72,44	27,56
Dominican Republic	52,80	15,97
Bermuda	28,72	18,19
Costa Rica	26,37	73,62
Jamaica	14,30	85,52
Grenada	10,45	17,09
Dominica	10,40	8,28
St. Lucia	9,93	16,73
Antigua and Barbuda	8,08	6,44
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	7,86	25,18
Honduras	7,22	92,38
Puerto Rico	6,19	35,62
Martinique	4,85	94,18
Trinidad and Tobago	4,34	94,50
Guatemala	4,33	94,76
Montserrat	4,28	14,49
St. Martin	1,93	3,80
Nicaragua	1,38	95,58
Suriname	1,03	94,44
Aruba	1,00	8,01
Guyana	0,77	92,88
Guadeloupe	0,69	95,28
French Guyana	0,55	93,09
Cuba	0,54	94,04
Bonaire	0,27	1,73
St. Maarten	0,07	1,67
St. Kitts and Nevis	0,00	14,29
Belize	0,00	11,69
Barbados	0,00	4,72
Cayman Islands	0,00	1,15
Bahamas	0,00	1,02
Turks and Caicos Islands	0,00	0,25
US Virgin Islands	0,00	0,11
British Virgin Islands	0,00	0,07
Anguilla	0,00	0,06

---

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.