In the upcoming September window four new tournaments will start. Here is the first simulation report in a series of four, regarding the CONCACAF Nations League 2024-2025, played until March next year.
The CONCACAF Nations League 2024-25 is the fourth edition of the CNL and will have the same format as the previous edition, played only a year ago:
- league A consists of 16 teams, with the top 4 (according to the CONCACAF ranking of March 2024: Mexico, USA, Panama and Canada) receiving a bye to the quarterfinals. The other 12 teams were drawn on May 6th in two groups of 6, where they will play 4 matches (2 home and 2 away) in a pre-determined schedule against some other group opponents. The numbers one and two from each group play the home-and-away quarter finals against one of the four top dogs in November. The quarter final winners qualify for the Final Four, to be played in March 2025.
- league B consists of 16 teams in 4 groups of 4. They will play a double round-robin against all other group opponents in the September, October and November windows.
- league C consists of the remaining 9 CONCACAF members. They will play in 3 groups of 3 in a double round-robin, with 3 match days in each of the September and October windows.
The matches per FIFA window in leagues B and C will be played in centralized venues to minimize the chance of travelling problems in the Caribbean region.
Promotion and relegation between the leagues for the next CNL edition also remains the same: the numbers 5 and 6 in the two league A groups relegate to league B, while the 4 league B group winners get promoted to league A.
The 4 league B group numbers 4 relegate to league C while the 3 league C group winners plus the best number 2 get promoted to league B.
This tournament will also serve as qualification for the Gold Cup 2025. CONCACAF devised the following qualification structure:
8 Teams qualify for the Gold Cup qualification play-ins (4 home-and-away playoffs). These matches are formally still part of the Nations League and will be played in November. Participants are:
- the group numbers five and six in league A (4);
- the 3 group winners and the best group runner-up in league C (4).
The exact pairing of these play-ins is based on group stage performance:
best 5th placed team league A - best runner-up league C
worst 5th placed team league A - third-best group winner league C
best 6th placed team league A - second-best group winner league C
worst 6th placed team league A - best group winner league C
The 4 play-in winners qualify for the Gold Cup qualification preliminaries.
Directly qualified for the Gold Cup qualification preliminaries (7 home-and-away playoffs, probably played right before the Gold Cup 2025 kicks off in June 2025) are:
- the losers of the league A quarterfinals (4);
- the group numbers three and four in league A (4);
- the 2 best group runners-up in league B.
They will be joined by the 4 play-in winners. The method of pairing in these play-offs is yet unknown. The 7 preliminary play-off winners qualify for the Gold Cup.
Directly qualified for the Gold Cup are:
- the 4 winners of the league A quarterfinals;
- the 4 group winners in league B;
This accounts for 8 + 7 = 15 teams which can qualify for the Gold Cup. It leaves the final berth open for an invitee (or another buy-in like Qatar, yes, let's do that again!).
The pairing in the quarter finals in league A in November is already known:
1st seed - worst ranked group runner-up in league A
2nd seed - best ranked group runner-up in league A
3rd seed - worst ranked group winner in league A
4th seed - best ranked group winner in league A
The order of the 4 seeds will be based on the CONCACAF October 2024 ranking. As I'm not able to calculate the CONCACAF ranking on the fly during a simulation, I will assume for the following simulations that the order of the seeds remains the same as in the latest July ranking: so Mexico as 1st seed, USA next, then Canada and 4th seed is Panama.
Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.
First the Nations League group results with teams ordered by average group position (in the last column):
|
group A-1 |
|||||||
|
team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
avg |
|
Costa Rica |
53,41 |
23,81 |
11,74 |
6,63 |
3,27 |
1,14 |
1,86 |
|
Martinique |
17,84 |
27,48 |
19,69 |
14,75 |
11,70 |
8,54 |
3,01 |
|
Guatemala |
14,27 |
15,08 |
17,96 |
19,82 |
18,16 |
14,71 |
3,57 |
|
Suriname |
6,80 |
12,30 |
19,14 |
18,62 |
20,10 |
23,04 |
4,02 |
|
Guadeloupe |
3,19 |
10,37 |
15,11 |
22,44 |
27,39 |
21,50 |
4,25 |
|
Guyana |
4,49 |
10,96 |
16,36 |
17,74 |
19,38 |
31,07 |
4,30 |
|
group A-2 |
|||||||
|
team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
avg |
|
Jamaica |
38,58 |
22,50 |
16,45 |
12,64 |
6,38 |
3,45 |
2,36 |
|
Honduras |
24,02 |
17,91 |
17,75 |
16,52 |
13,95 |
9,85 |
3,08 |
|
Trinidad and Tobago |
18,14 |
25,06 |
18,94 |
15,85 |
12,06 |
9,95 |
3,08 |
|
Nicaragua |
10,46 |
15,02 |
18,71 |
19,54 |
17,99 |
18,28 |
3,74 |
|
Cuba |
4,11 |
9,90 |
13,93 |
18,80 |
28,16 |
25,10 |
4,32 |
|
French Guyana |
4,69 |
9,61 |
14,22 |
16,65 |
21,46 |
33,37 |
4,41 |
|
group B-1 |
|||||||
|
team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
avg |
||
|
El Salvador |
87,59 |
10,75 |
1,52 |
0,14 |
1,14 |
||
|
St. Vincent and the Grenadines |
7,86 |
48,53 |
32,70 |
10,91 |
2,47 |
||
|
Montserrat |
4,28 |
33,35 |
43,04 |
19,33 |
2,77 |
||
|
Bonaire |
0,27 |
7,37 |
22,74 |
69,62 |
3,62 |
||
|
group B-2 |
|||||||
|
team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
avg |
||
|
Curacao |
77,69 |
16,72 |
4,72 |
0,87 |
1,29 |
||
|
Grenada |
10,45 |
35,80 |
34,47 |
19,28 |
2,63 |
||
|
St. Lucia |
9,93 |
34,44 |
35,11 |
20,52 |
2,66 |
||
|
St. Martin |
1,93 |
13,04 |
25,70 |
59,33 |
3,42 |
||
|
group B-3 |
|||||||
|
team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
avg |
||
|
Haiti |
92,74 |
6,75 |
0,48 |
0,03 |
1,08 |
||
|
Puerto Rico |
6,19 |
63,01 |
23,82 |
6,98 |
2,32 |
||
|
Aruba |
1,00 |
22,27 |
49,78 |
26,95 |
3,03 |
||
|
St. Maarten |
0,07 |
7,97 |
25,92 |
66,04 |
3,58 |
||
|
group B-4 |
|||||||
|
team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
avg |
||
|
Dominican Republic |
52,80 |
27,62 |
13,96 |
5,62 |
1,72 |
||
|
Bermuda |
28,72 |
34,21 |
22,92 |
14,15 |
2,23 |
||
|
Dominica |
10,40 |
21,37 |
31,89 |
36,34 |
2,94 |
||
|
Antigua and Barbuda |
8,08 |
16,80 |
31,23 |
43,89 |
3,11 |
||
|
group C-1 |
|||||||
|
team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
avg |
|||
|
Barbados |
65,97 |
27,65 |
6,38 |
1,40 |
|||
|
Bahamas |
28,31 |
52,46 |
19,23 |
1,91 |
|||
|
US Virgin Islands |
5,72 |
19,89 |
74,39 |
2,69 |
|||
|
group C-2 |
|||||||
|
team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
avg |
|||
|
Belize |
90,29 |
8,51 |
1,20 |
1,11 |
|||
|
Turks and Caicos Islands |
7,25 |
59,63 |
33,12 |
2,26 |
|||
|
Anguilla |
2,46 |
31,86 |
65,68 |
2,63 |
|||
|
group C-3 |
|||||||
|
team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
avg |
|||
|
St. Kitts and Nevis |
83,76 |
14,40 |
1,84 |
1,18 |
|||
|
Cayman Islands |
14,01 |
63,28 |
22,71 |
2,09 |
|||
|
British Virgin Islands |
2,23 |
22,32 |
75,45 |
2,73 |
The probabilities for the teams in the league A groups to qualify for the quarter finals by position in the final ranking for both group winners and for both group numbers two. Also their total probability to qualify for the quarters is given in the last column:
|
team |
best nr 1 |
worst nr 1 |
best nr 2 |
worst nr 2 |
total |
|
Costa Rica |
35,60 |
17,81 |
16,35 |
7,46 |
77,22 |
|
Jamaica |
18,72 |
19,86 |
12,57 |
9,93 |
61,08 |
|
Martinique |
9,99 |
7,85 |
14,55 |
12,93 |
45,32 |
|
Trinidad and Tobago |
7,81 |
10,33 |
12,89 |
12,17 |
43,20 |
|
Honduras |
9,25 |
14,77 |
7,61 |
10,30 |
41,93 |
|
Guatemala |
5,53 |
8,74 |
5,73 |
9,35 |
29,35 |
|
Nicaragua |
4,34 |
6,12 |
7,98 |
7,04 |
25,48 |
|
Suriname |
3,15 |
3,65 |
5,82 |
6,48 |
19,10 |
|
Guyana |
1,58 |
2,91 |
4,92 |
6,04 |
15,45 |
|
Cuba |
1,10 |
3,01 |
3,32 |
6,58 |
14,01 |
|
French Guyana |
1,76 |
2,93 |
4,31 |
5,30 |
14,30 |
|
Guadeloupe |
1,17 |
2,02 |
3,95 |
6,42 |
13,56 |
|
quarter final against |
PAN |
CAN |
USA |
MEX |
The probabilities to win in the quarter finals (and qualify for the Final Four and the Gold Cup 2025). Also in square brackets the probability to win a quarter final, given a team qualified from the league A group stage:
|
team |
QF-PAN |
QF-CAN |
QF-USA |
QF-MEX |
total |
|
|
Mexico |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
91,39 |
91,39 |
|
|
USA |
0,00 |
0,00 |
86,41 |
0,00 |
86,41 |
|
|
Canada |
0,00 |
83,39 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
83,39 |
|
|
Panama |
72,44 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
72,44 |
|
|
Costa Rica |
14,42 |
5,36 |
4,75 |
1,84 |
26,37 |
[34,15] |
|
Jamaica |
5,68 |
4,60 |
2,49 |
1,53 |
14,30 |
[23,41] |
|
Honduras |
2,16 |
2,42 |
1,22 |
1,42 |
7,22 |
[17,22] |
|
Martinique |
1,67 |
0,79 |
1,42 |
0,97 |
4,85 |
[10,70] |
|
Trinidad and Tobago |
1,15 |
1,01 |
1,49 |
0,69 |
4,34 |
[10,05] |
|
Guatemala |
1,21 |
1,45 |
0,75 |
0,92 |
4,33 |
[14,75] |
|
Nicaragua |
0,48 |
0,31 |
0,36 |
0,23 |
1,38 |
[5,42] |
|
Suriname |
0,27 |
0,19 |
0,34 |
0,23 |
1,03 |
[5,39] |
|
Guyana |
0,17 |
0,12 |
0,25 |
0,23 |
0,77 |
[4,98] |
|
Guadeloupe |
0,15 |
0,10 |
0,22 |
0,22 |
0,69 |
[5,09] |
|
French Guyana |
0,11 |
0,10 |
0,17 |
0,17 |
0,55 |
[3,85] |
|
Cuba |
0,09 |
0,16 |
0,13 |
0,16 |
0,54 |
[3,85] |
For the Nations League title in the Final Four in March 2025:
|
team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
|
USA |
35,38 |
18,01 |
22,34 |
10,68 |
|
Mexico |
23,73 |
19,56 |
27,03 |
21,07 |
|
Canada |
20,47 |
18,51 |
27,95 |
16,46 |
|
Panama |
12,90 |
31,29 |
8,67 |
19,58 |
|
Costa Rica |
4,79 |
5,70 |
6,49 |
9,39 |
|
Jamaica |
1,39 |
2,85 |
3,06 |
7,00 |
|
Honduras |
0,52 |
1,35 |
1,34 |
4,01 |
|
Guatemala |
0,28 |
0,80 |
0,88 |
2,37 |
|
Martinique |
0,25 |
0,70 |
0,91 |
2,99 |
|
Trinidad and Tobago |
0,16 |
0,59 |
0,74 |
2,85 |
|
Suriname |
0,06 |
0,16 |
0,03 |
0,78 |
|
Guadeloupe |
0,03 |
0,07 |
0,06 |
0,53 |
|
Nicaragua |
0,02 |
0,19 |
0,29 |
0,88 |
|
Guyana |
0,01 |
0,08 |
0,07 |
0,61 |
|
French Guyana |
0,01 |
0,07 |
0,09 |
0,38 |
|
Cuba |
0,00 |
0,07 |
0,05 |
0,42 |
|
Promotion |
|
|
From league B to A |
as group winner |
|
Haiti |
92,74 |
|
El Salvador |
87,59 |
|
Curacao |
77,69 |
|
Dominican Republic |
52,80 |
|
Bermuda |
28,72 |
|
Grenada |
10,45 |
|
Dominica |
10,40 |
|
St. Lucia |
9,93 |
|
Antigua and Barbuda |
8,08 |
|
St. Vincent and the Grenadines |
7,86 |
|
Puerto Rico |
6,19 |
|
Montserrat |
4,28 |
|
St. Martin |
1,93 |
|
Aruba |
1,00 |
|
Bonaire |
0,27 |
|
St. Maarten |
0,07 |
|
From league C to B |
as group winner or best nr 2 |
|
Belize |
94,99 |
|
St. Kitts and Nevis |
91,94 |
|
Barbados |
79,96 |
|
Bahamas |
50,49 |
|
Cayman Islands |
36,02 |
|
Turks and Caicos Islands |
21,68 |
|
US Virgin Islands |
10,70 |
|
Anguilla |
7,77 |
|
British Virgin Islands |
6,45 |
|
Relegation |
|
|
From league A to B |
as group nrs 5 or 6 |
|
French Guyana |
54,83 |
|
Cuba |
53,26 |
|
Guyana |
50,45 |
|
Guadeloupe |
48,89 |
|
Suriname |
43,14 |
|
Nicaragua |
36,27 |
|
Guatemala |
32,87 |
|
Honduras |
23,80 |
|
Trinidad and Tobago |
22,01 |
|
Martinique |
20,24 |
|
Jamaica |
9,83 |
|
Costa Rica |
4,41 |
|
From league B to C |
as group nr 4 |
|
Bonaire |
69,62 |
|
St. Maarten |
66,04 |
|
St. Martin |
59,33 |
|
Antigua and Barbuda |
43,89 |
|
Dominica |
36,34 |
|
Aruba |
26,95 |
|
St. Lucia |
20,52 |
|
Montserrat |
19,33 |
|
Grenada |
19,28 |
|
Bermuda |
14,15 |
|
St. Vincent and the Grenadines |
10,91 |
|
Puerto Rico |
6,98 |
|
Dominican Republic |
5,62 |
|
Curacao |
0,87 |
|
El Salvador |
0,14 |
|
Haiti |
0,03 |
Qualification for the Gold Cup 2025
First the probabilities regarding qualification for the play-in by position in the final ranking for group numbers 5th and 6th from league A and for group winners and best runner-up from league C. Also their total probability to qualify for the play-in play-offs is given in the last column:
|
teams league A |
best nr 5 |
worst nr 5 |
best nr 6 |
worst nr 6 |
total |
|
French Guyana |
10,89 |
10,57 |
16,49 |
16,88 |
54,83 |
|
Cuba |
11,83 |
16,33 |
10,84 |
14,26 |
53,26 |
|
Guyana |
8,67 |
10,71 |
13,78 |
17,29 |
50,45 |
|
Guadeloupe |
10,70 |
16,69 |
8,84 |
12,66 |
48,89 |
|
Suriname |
9,33 |
10,77 |
11,15 |
11,89 |
43,14 |
|
Nicaragua |
9,90 |
8,09 |
10,23 |
8,05 |
36,27 |
|
Guatemala |
8,74 |
9,42 |
7,38 |
7,33 |
32,87 |
|
Honduras |
8,38 |
5,57 |
6,19 |
3,66 |
23,80 |
|
Trinidad and Tobago |
7,82 |
4,24 |
6,43 |
3,52 |
22,01 |
|
Martinique |
7,31 |
4,39 |
5,44 |
3,10 |
20,24 |
|
Jamaica |
4,15 |
2,23 |
2,40 |
1,05 |
9,83 |
|
Costa Rica |
2,28 |
0,99 |
0,83 |
0,31 |
4,41 |
|
teams league C |
best nr 1 |
next best nr 1 |
worst nr 1 |
best nr 2 |
total |
|
Belize |
46,40 |
27,70 |
16,19 |
4,70 |
94,99 |
|
St. Kitts and Nevis |
32,06 |
30,43 |
21,27 |
8,18 |
91,94 |
|
Barbados |
14,66 |
22,59 |
28,72 |
13,99 |
79,96 |
|
Bahamas |
3,30 |
9,14 |
15,87 |
22,18 |
50,49 |
|
Cayman Islands |
2,05 |
5,12 |
6,84 |
22,01 |
36,02 |
|
Turks and Caicos Islands |
1,00 |
2,67 |
3,58 |
14,43 |
21,68 |
|
US Virgin Islands |
0,24 |
1,18 |
4,30 |
4,98 |
10,70 |
|
Anguilla |
0,20 |
0,67 |
1,59 |
5,31 |
7,77 |
|
British Virgin Islands |
0,09 |
0,50 |
1,64 |
4,22 |
6,45 |
The probabilities to qualify for the play-in play-offs and win a play-in play-off to qualify for the qualification preliminaries. Also in square brackets the probability to win a play-in play-off, given a team qualified for the play-ins:
|
team |
to play-in |
to Q prelims |
|
|
French Guyana |
54,83 |
48,47 |
[88,40] |
|
Cuba |
53,26 |
47,84 |
[89,82] |
|
Guadeloupe |
48,89 |
44,86 |
[91,76] |
|
Guyana |
50,45 |
44,10 |
[87,41] |
|
Suriname |
43,14 |
38,61 |
[89,50] |
|
Nicaragua |
36,27 |
33,23 |
[91,62] |
|
Guatemala |
32,87 |
31,96 |
[97,23] |
|
Honduras |
23,80 |
23,40 |
[98,32] |
|
Trinidad and Tobago |
22,01 |
20,85 |
[94,73] |
|
Martinique |
20,24 |
19,27 |
[95,21] |
|
St. Kitts and Nevis |
91,94 |
14,29 |
[15,54] |
|
Belize |
94,99 |
11,69 |
[12,31] |
|
Jamaica |
9,83 |
9,65 |
[98,17] |
|
Barbados |
79,96 |
4,72 |
[5,90] |
|
Costa Rica |
4,41 |
4,40 |
[99,77] |
|
Cayman Islands |
36,02 |
1,15 |
[3,19] |
|
Bahamas |
50,49 |
1,02 |
[2,02] |
|
Turks and Caicos Islands |
21,68 |
0,25 |
[1,15] |
|
US Virgin Islands |
10,70 |
0,11 |
[1,03] |
|
British Virgin Islands |
6,45 |
0,07 |
[1,09] |
|
Anguilla |
7,77 |
0,06 |
[0,77] |
Finally the probabilities to qualify directly for the Gold Cup from the CNL and the total probability to qualify for the qualification preliminaries. As the pairing and structure of the qualification preliminaries is not published yet, I can't give total probabilities to qualify for the Gold Cup yet.
|
team |
Qdir |
to Q prelims |
|
Haiti |
92,74 |
6,06 |
|
Mexico |
91,39 |
8,61 |
|
El Salvador |
87,59 |
8,98 |
|
USA |
86,41 |
13,59 |
|
Canada |
83,39 |
16,61 |
|
Curacao |
77,69 |
11,76 |
|
Panama |
72,44 |
27,56 |
|
Dominican Republic |
52,80 |
15,97 |
|
Bermuda |
28,72 |
18,19 |
|
Costa Rica |
26,37 |
73,62 |
|
Jamaica |
14,30 |
85,52 |
|
Grenada |
10,45 |
17,09 |
|
Dominica |
10,40 |
8,28 |
|
St. Lucia |
9,93 |
16,73 |
|
Antigua and Barbuda |
8,08 |
6,44 |
|
St. Vincent and the Grenadines |
7,86 |
25,18 |
|
Honduras |
7,22 |
92,38 |
|
Puerto Rico |
6,19 |
35,62 |
|
Martinique |
4,85 |
94,18 |
|
Trinidad and Tobago |
4,34 |
94,50 |
|
Guatemala |
4,33 |
94,76 |
|
Montserrat |
4,28 |
14,49 |
|
St. Martin |
1,93 |
3,80 |
|
Nicaragua |
1,38 |
95,58 |
|
Suriname |
1,03 |
94,44 |
|
Aruba |
1,00 |
8,01 |
|
Guyana |
0,77 |
92,88 |
|
Guadeloupe |
0,69 |
95,28 |
|
French Guyana |
0,55 |
93,09 |
|
Cuba |
0,54 |
94,04 |
|
Bonaire |
0,27 |
1,73 |
|
St. Maarten |
0,07 |
1,67 |
|
St. Kitts and Nevis |
0,00 |
14,29 |
|
Belize |
0,00 |
11,69 |
|
Barbados |
0,00 |
4,72 |
|
Cayman Islands |
0,00 |
1,15 |
|
Bahamas |
0,00 |
1,02 |
|
Turks and Caicos Islands |
0,00 |
0,25 |
|
US Virgin Islands |
0,00 |
0,11 |
|
British Virgin Islands |
0,00 |
0,07 |
|
Anguilla |
0,00 |
0,06 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
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