FIFA ranking: September 2024 probable ranking

Here is the probable September 2024 ranking, to be published on Thursday September 19th. In the September window we see a varied menu of matches:

- the 12 qualification groups for the AFCON 2025 in Morocco start with the first two match days;

- the CONCACAF Nations League 2024/2025 starts with the first two match days for the groups in leagues A and B and even a third match day in the 3-team groups in league C;

- in the qualification for the AFC Nations Cup 2027 in Saudi Arabia the third stage is played: 3 home-and-away play-offs between the stage 1 losers;

- in World Cup 2026 qualification Asia starts with stage 3, a group stage with 3 groups of 6 teams. The first two match days in a total of 10 are played (until June next year). The group winners and runners-up qualify for the World Cup. Group numbers 3 and 4 progress to stage 4;

- in World Cup 2026 qualification South America continues where they left off last November: match days 7 and 8 in a total of 18 match days are played (until September next year). Group numbers 1 to 6 in the final  group standing qualify for the World Cup, number 7 qualifies for the IPO;

- in World Cup 2026 qualification Oceania starts with stage 1, two one-off semi-finals and a final between the 4 lowest ranked OFC-teams. The winner qualifies for stage 2;

- the UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 starts with the first two match days for all groups in all leagues;

- several friendlies (partly in tournament form like the Merdeka tournament in Malaysia and the Intercontinental Cup in India).

After the window there is a home-and-away play-off scheduled between Brunei Darussalam and Timor-Leste, to qualify for the South East Asian Championship 2024.

This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 199 currently played and scheduled and according to my method included matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are currently included.

pos Sep.	team	pts Sep.	+/- pos	+/- pts
1	Argentina	1901,79	0	0,30
2	France	1866,71	0	11,80
3	Spain	1843,92	0	8,25
4	England	1817,28	0	5,02
5	Brazil	1796,85	0	11,24
6	Belgium	1768,35	0	-4,09
7	Netherlands	1767,45	0	8,94
8	Portugal	1752,31	0	10,88
9	Colombia	1738,45	0	11,13
10	Uruguay	1714,67	1	1,52
11	Italy	1711,44	-1	-2,85
12	Croatia	1699,41	0	-1,90
13	Germany	1684,69	0	-1,33
14	Morocco	1676,14	0	6,70
15	Switzerland	1648,50	0	-5,60
16	USA	1647,13	0	5,38
17	Japan	1639,19	1	10,38
18	Mexico	1635,58	-1	0,47
19	Senegal	1633,00	0	9,66
20	Iran	1622,43	0	11,27
21	Denmark	1614,20	0	6,68
22	Austria	1587,98	0	-3,58
23	Korea Republic	1584,88	0	12,01
24	Australia	1581,35	0	10,06
25	Ukraine	1570,69	0	3,44
26	Turkey	1538,52	0	4,92
27	Ecuador	1535,13	0	4,69
28	Sweden	1528,18	1	5,99
29	Wales	1519,03	1	-2,37
30	Qatar	1518,77	4	14,71
31	Hungary	1518,56	0	-0,21
32	Egypt	1515,64	4	13,30
33	Venezuela	1513,32	4	11,86
34	Nigeria	1510,35	5	11,42
35	Poland	1510,27	-7	-13,26
36	Cote d'Ivoire	1509,01	2	9,32
37	Russia	1506,58	-4	0
38	Tunisia	1504,86	3	10,80
39	Panama	1502,55	-4	0
40	Serbia	1497,58	-8	-9,32
41	Chile	1492,48	2	2,98
42	Canada	1492,40	-2	-2,26
43	Slovakia	1485,89	1	6,82
44	Algeria	1485,87	2	11,74
45	Romania	1481,53	0	6,83
46	Scotland	1476,58	2	4,28
47	Costa Rica	1473,58	2	3,89
48	Czech Republic	1473,29	-1	-0,17
49	Norway	1472,06	1	5,58
50	Peru	1471,00	-8	-18,68
51	Cameroon	1470,81	0	12,34
52	Mali	1467,51	1	10,77
53	Slovenia	1462,89	-1	5,83
54	Greece	1461,68	0	5,73
55	Iraq	1448,20	0	15,13
56	Saudi Arabia	1445,39	0	14,09
57	South Africa	1427,42	0	12,27
58	Congo DR	1416,71	2	15,78
59	Uzbekistan	1413,06	2	15,65
60	Jamaica	1402,85	-1	1,29
61	Republic of Ireland	1402,13	-3	-1,71
62	Ghana	1397,46	2	16,21
63	Jordan	1389,47	5	15,34
64	Paraguay	1386,67	-2	-10,13
65	Finland	1384,36	-2	-9,04
66	Cape Verde Islands	1379,17	-1	-1,36
67	Burkina Faso	1375,73	0	0,57
68	Albania	1370,52	-2	-4,97
69	Georgia	1363,11	1	1,70
70	North Macedonia	1358,58	2	9,95
71	Iceland	1355,75	0	2,27
72	United Arab Emirates	1352,70	-3	-16,14
73	Northern Ireland	1347,14	1	5,81
74	Montenegro	1340,18	-1	-4,84
75	Bosnia-Herzegovina	1324,89	0	-7,41
76	Guinea	1323,58	1	-1,22
77	Honduras	1318,90	2	7,42
78	Oman	1309,51	-2	-16,67
79	Israel	1307,67	-1	-4,87
80	El Salvador	1307,05	1	4,94
81	Bulgaria	1295,18	1	-0,32
82	Gabon	1292,88	1	4,43
83	Bahrain	1290,91	-3	-11,95
84	Haiti	1278,56	1	4,10
85	Luxembourg	1276,95	-1	0,22
86	Curacao	1276,38	0	3,67
87	Equatorial Guinea	1263,36	1	2,86
88	Angola	1256,67	2	1,02
89	China PR	1254,04	-2	-13,47
90	Zambia	1253,08	2	3,54
91	Syria	1252,92	2	6,24
92	Benin	1245,48	-1	-8,70
93	Uganda	1245,43	2	2,47
94	Bolivia	1244,26	-5	-14,30
95	New Zealand	1242,14	-1	-3,59
96	Armenia	1230,54	1	-0,25
97	Thailand	1218,56	4	0
98	Palestine	1217,04	-2	-14,21
99	Tajikistan	1214,48	4	2,07
100	Namibia	1214,11	-2	-7,31
101	Belarus	1214,07	-2	-5,71
102	Mozambique	1213,83	2	4,96
103	Trinidad and Tobago	1213,25	-3	-6,19
104	Kenya	1208,66	4	10,93
105	Kosovo	1205,75	1	2,59
106	Kyrgyzstan	1201,11	-4	-12,47
107	Madagascar	1196,56	-2	-7,10
108	Guatemala	1192,33	-1	-6,50
109	Kazakhstan	1185,79	0	-7,83
110	Mauritania	1179,04	2	1,54
111	Libya	1178,67	6	12,94
112	Tanzania	1175,46	1	0,47
113	Azerbaijan	1173,15	-2	-6,73
114	Korea DPR	1170,93	-4	-13,03
115	Lebanon	1168,07	1	0,43
116	Vietnam	1168,02	-1	0
117	Guinea-Bissau	1165,72	-3	-2,77
118	Congo	1160,03	0	-2,70
119	Comoros	1159,64	0	-0,20
120	Togo	1158,52	0	-0,18
121	Sudan	1153,92	0	1,63
122	Sierra Leone	1146,47	0	-2,93
123	Malawi	1141,68	3	3,85
124	Estonia	1140,39	-1	-6,08
125	India	1135,42	-1	-3,97
126	Central African Republic	1130,70	2	1,40
127	Cyprus	1122,27	0	-14,51
128	Niger	1120,36	-3	-18,85
129	Nicaragua	1117,94	1	-1,94
130	Malaysia	1112,06	4	4,48
131	Zimbabwe	1110,19	-2	-15,96
132	Gambia	1109,05	0	-3,50
133	Lithuania	1105,76	2	5,10
134	Indonesia	1099,63	-1	-9,10
135	Rwanda	1098,50	-4	-15,65
136	Latvia	1097,87	1	1,89
137	Suriname	1086,89	3	-0,88
138	Kuwait	1086,82	-2	-11,60
139	Faroe Islands	1082,11	-1	-11,59
140	Solomon Islands	1079,06	1	4,00
141	Burundi	1077,15	-2	-14,09
142	St. Kitts and Nevis	1068,25	4	8,72
143	Turkmenistan	1065,42	1	0
144	Dominican Republic	1057,55	6	11,91
145	Antigua and Barbuda	1057,00	3	4,20
146	Liberia	1052,63	-4	-14,42
147	Ethiopia	1051,14	-4	-15,01
148	Botswana	1050,15	-3	-13,49
149	Philippines	1048,55	-2	-4,48
150	Moldova	1042,70	2	8,95
151	Fiji	1038,24	2	5,15
152	Afghanistan	1034,37	-1	0
153	Lesotho	1034,02	-4	-12,52
154	Guyana	1027,49	0	0,88
155	Puerto Rico	1021,62	2	1,40
156	Yemen	1021,24	0	0
157	Tahiti	1016,83	1	0
158	Eswatini	1012,33	-3	-12,95
159	New Caledonia	1008,92	1	0
160	Singapore	1008,26	1	0
161	Vanuatu	1005,49	1	0
162	Maldives	1003,48	1	0
163	Hong Kong	1002,76	-4	-9,15
164	Andorra	994,12	0	-1,93
165	Chinese Taipei	991,34	0	0
166	Myanmar	988,98	0	0
167	Cuba	984,33	0	-0,59
168	Papua New Guinea	984,23	0	0
169	St. Lucia	968,08	1	-11,49
170	South Sudan	967,98	-1	-12,04
171	Bermuda	966,05	0	-5,10
172	Malta	964,46	0	-6,16
173	Grenada	961,49	0	7,82
174	Barbados	944,10	3	11,47
175	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	938,30	-1	-0,10
176	Nepal	935,93	-1	0
177	Cambodia	932,20	3	7,68
178	Montserrat	931,64	-2	-2,82
179	Mauritius	925,66	0	-2,28
180	Chad	920,04	-2	-9,93
181	Belize	913,42	2	12,00
182	Macau	908,42	3	11,80
183	Mongolia	907,38	6	22,46
184	Bhutan	904,10	-2	0
185	Samoa	902,23	7	25,78
186	Dominica	901,93	-5	-11,00
187	Bangladesh	896,67	-3	0
188	Cook Islands	894,64	-2	-1,95
189	Laos	889,62	-1	0
190	American Samoa	878,13	-3	-12,84
191	Sao Tomé e Príncipe	878,09	0	0
192	Djibouti	875,13	1	0
193	Brunei Darussalam	872,20	-3	-9,53
194	Aruba	868,40	0	-5,50
195	Cayman Islands	857,37	0	1,94
196	Gibraltar	845,19	2	9,05
197	Pakistan	842,59	0	0
198	Liechtenstein	834,40	1	-1,43
199	Seychelles	831,19	2	0
200	Somalia	829,81	2	0
201	Bahamas	824,65	2	1,07
202	Tonga	822,13	-2	-10,99
203	Guam	821,91	1	0
204	Timor-Leste	818,67	-8	-24,73
205	Turks and Caicos Islands	817,60	1	0,57
206	Sri Lanka	812,64	-1	-7,68
207	British Virgin Islands	790,63	0	-10,66
208	US Virgin Islands	784,75	0	-12,54
209	Anguilla	767,29	0	-12,57
210	San Marino	731,16	0	-8,48

---

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.