Qualification World Cup 2026: 10.000 simulations (August 2024)

In the upcoming September window four new tournaments will start. Here is the last simulation report in a series of four, regarding the qualifications for the World Cup 2026.

In the qualification tournaments for the World Cup 2026 Asia has progressed to stage 3, a group stage consisting of 3 groups of 6 teams each. The draw of the groups was held on June 27th with seedings based on the June 2024 FIFA ranking. This stage is played in a double round robin format, with 2 match days in each of the September, October, November 2024 plus the March and June 2025 windows.

The group winners and runners-up of each group (6 teams in total) qualify for the World Cup. The group numbers three and four qualify for the next stage 4. Asia has 8 direct berths in 2026.

Africa has played group match days 3 and 4 in June and has reserved this Autumn for the qualification of the AFCON 2025. They will continue their world cup qualification in March 2025. 

North and Central America and the Caribbean has started in June with the first two match days in their only 4MD-long single round robin stage 2 group stage. They too take a break (until June next year) to play the complete CONCACAF Nations League 2024/25 this Autumn and next March.

South America has played the first 6 match days in their 18 match day qualification group stage last Autumn and resumes qualification with 6 match days this Autumn, two each in the September, October and November window.

Oceania starts with their first stage this September: two semi finals and a final, hosted by Samoa, between the four lowest ranked teams. Then in October and November 8 teams (the 7 teams who got a bye and the stage one winner) in 2 groups play a single round robin group stage. The draw for these stages was held on July 18th, with seeding based on the July 2024 ranking. The first group match day in October will be hosted by Fiji (group A) and Vanuatu (group B), the second and third match day in November will be hosted by Papua New Guinea (group A) and New Zealand (group B).

Then in March next year stage 3 is played between the group numbers one and two, consisting of two one-off semi finals and a final, to decide which team takes the OFC berth at the World Cup. The losing finalist qualifies for the interconfederational play-offs in March 2026.

I've simulated the complete scheduled qualification for all confederations, except UEFA who leaves it late and starts only in March next year.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

AFC

The group results in stage 3 with teams ordered by average group position, indicated in the last avg column:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Iran	61,60	24,10	10,48	3,25	0,55	0,02	1,57
Uzbekistan	21,04	34,59	28,07	12,03	3,68	0,59	2,44
Qatar	14,52	30,11	33,14	16,47	4,82	0,94	2,70
United Arab Emirates	2,34	8,80	20,00	39,24	21,80	7,82	3,93
Korea DPR	0,45	1,99	6,35	20,58	43,54	27,09	4,86
Kyrgyzstan	0,05	0,41	1,96	8,43	25,61	63,54	5,50
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Korea Republic	47,15	28,17	15,42	6,93	2,01	0,32	1,89
Iraq	23,72	27,96	26,23	15,11	5,32	1,66	2,55
Jordan	22,67	27,72	26,80	14,93	5,92	1,96	2,60
Oman	5,60	12,36	20,63	33,99	19,24	8,18	3,73
Palestine	0,58	2,52	7,13	17,27	38,65	33,85	4,92
Kuwait	0,28	1,27	3,79	11,77	28,86	54,03	5,30
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Japan	62,67	29,53	6,48	1,13	0,17	0,02	1,47
Australia	32,01	49,29	14,51	3,24	0,78	0,17	1,92
Saudi Arabia	4,28	15,42	46,25	21,15	9,62	3,28	3,26
Bahrain	0,72	3,60	17,28	34,42	27,21	16,77	4,34
China PR	0,26	1,55	10,66	24,71	33,58	29,24	4,78
Indonesia	0,06	0,61	4,82	15,35	28,64	50,52	5,23

The group numbers 1 and 2 qualify directly for the World Cup, the numbers 3 and 4 qualify for stage 4:

team	Q_dir	stage 4
Japan	92,20	7,61
Iran	85,70	13,73
Australia	81,30	17,75
Korea Republic	75,32	22,35
Uzbekistan	55,63	40,10
Iraq	51,68	41,34
Jordan	50,39	41,73
Qatar	44,63	49,61
Saudi Arabia	19,70	67,40
Oman	17,96	54,62
United Arab Emirates	11,14	59,24
Bahrain	4,32	51,70
Palestine	3,10	24,40
Korea DPR	2,44	26,93
China PR	1,81	35,37
Kuwait	1,55	15,56
Indonesia	0,67	20,17
Kyrgyzstan	0,46	10,39

CAF

The group results after four match days played (of 10) with teams ordered by average group position, indicated in the last avg column:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Egypt	92,35	6,52	0,98	0,14	0,01	0,00	1,09
Burkina Faso	5,19	54,04	29,18	9,75	1,78	0,06	2,49
Guinea-Bissau	1,62	24,88	37,05	28,07	8,35	0,03	3,17
Sierra Leone	0,77	13,21	26,71	39,70	19,41	0,20	3,64
Ethiopia	0,07	1,33	6,07	22,25	68,17	2,11	4,63
Djibouti	0,00	0,02	0,01	0,09	2,28	97,60	5,97
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Senegal	79,08	16,67	4,07	0,18	0,00	0,00	1,25
Congo DR	14,92	55,08	25,46	4,27	0,25	0,02	2,20
Sudan	5,90	25,67	56,68	10,95	0,80	0,00	2,75
Togo	0,08	2,20	10,42	54,46	26,47	6,37	4,24
Mauritania	0,02	0,36	3,16	27,34	54,42	14,70	4,80
South Sudan	0,00	0,02	0,21	2,80	18,06	78,91	5,76
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
South Africa	59,58	21,67	12,10	4,79	1,52	0,34	1,68
Nigeria	16,66	30,65	25,39	18,37	6,98	1,95	2,74
Benin	16,03	27,03	28,50	17,74	8,01	2,69	2,83
Rwanda	6,36	16,46	22,68	32,48	16,50	5,52	3,53
Lesotho	0,86	2,42	5,74	14,61	38,21	38,16	5,01
Zimbabwe	0,51	1,77	5,59	12,01	28,78	51,34	5,21
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Cameroon	53,80	27,47	14,31	4,35	0,06	0,01	1,69
Cape Verde Islands	27,86	36,10	27,65	8,23	0,15	0,01	2,17
Angola	14,17	24,76	33,92	26,61	0,52	0,02	2,75
Libya	4,17	11,66	23,95	57,60	2,47	0,15	3,43
Mauritius	0,00	0,00	0,07	1,53	55,21	43,19	5,42
Eswatini	0,00	0,01	0,10	1,68	41,59	56,62	5,55
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th		avg
Morocco	99,24	0,73	0,03	0,00	0,00		1,01
Tanzania	0,68	79,64	14,28	4,57	0,83		2,25
Niger	0,08	10,64	45,65	35,83	7,80		3,41
Zambia	0,00	7,82	32,77	43,31	16,10		3,68
Congo	0,00	1,17	7,27	16,29	75,27		4,66
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Cote d'Ivoire	80,23	17,05	2,32	0,33	0,07	0,00	1,23
Gabon	17,63	63,66	15,27	2,99	0,45	0,00	2,05
Kenya	1,22	12,07	42,99	26,10	17,62	0,00	3,47
Burundi	0,80	4,87	23,27	43,26	27,79	0,01	3,92
Gambia	0,12	2,35	16,15	27,32	53,80	0,26	4,33
Seychelles	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,27	99,73	6,00
group G	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Algeria	75,15	17,33	5,81	1,41	0,30	0,00	1,34
Mozambique	12,89	39,39	28,20	13,75	5,77	0,00	2,60
Guinea	9,80	31,77	37,53	15,60	5,29	0,01	2,75
Uganda	1,34	8,49	18,43	36,98	34,71	0,05	3,95
Botswana	0,82	3,02	10,03	32,26	53,86	0,01	4,35
Somalia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,07	99,93	6,00
group H	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Tunisia	93,62	5,56	0,63	0,15	0,04	0,00	1,07
Namibia	4,07	44,53	27,16	15,15	9,04	0,05	2,81
Equatorial Guinea	1,40	30,30	35,11	21,55	11,51	0,13	3,12
Malawi	0,45	13,45	20,15	29,06	36,59	0,30	3,89
Liberia	0,46	6,15	16,95	34,00	42,10	0,34	4,12
Sao Tomé e Príncipe	0,00	0,01	0,00	0,09	0,72	99,18	5,99
group I	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	avg
Ghana	66,75	20,52	8,58	3,31	0,83	0,01	1,51
Mali	17,68	35,02	23,79	16,74	6,56	0,21	2,60
Comoros	8,97	23,24	29,29	26,92	11,51	0,07	3,09
Madagascar	4,80	14,29	25,33	29,86	24,94	0,78	3,58
Central African Republic	1,80	6,92	12,98	22,76	52,84	2,70	4,26
Chad	0,00	0,01	0,03	0,41	3,32	96,23	5,96

The probabilities to qualify for the play-offs as one of the 4 best group runners-up, with in square brackets the probability to qualify for the play-off, given that the team is a group runner-up. Also a column indicating the difference in %-points compared to the simulations after md2:

team	PO			diff
Tanzania	46,02	[57,79]		45,94
Gabon	40,37	[63,42]		-2,39
Congo DR	29,29	[53,18]		6,71
Mozambique	24,07	[61,11]		12,99
Burkina Faso	18,47	[34,18]		-19,61
Cameroon	18,41	[67,02]		-0,37
Cape Verde Islands	18,31	[50,72]		-2,09
Angola	16,23	[65,55]		1,31
Namibia	15,33	[34,43]		-4,44
Guinea	15,18	[47,78]		-6,05
Cote d'Ivoire	13,71	[80,41]		1,73
Mali	12,68	[36,21]		3,15
Senegal	12,45	[74,69]		7,37
Algeria	12,42	[71,67]		5,33
Ghana	12,14	[59,16]		-10,01
Nigeria	11,32	[36,93]		-0,04
Sudan	8,92	[34,75]		7,78
Benin	8,14	[30,11]		7,68
Equatorial Guinea	6,78	[22,38]		-8,41
Comoros	6,14	[26,42]		-1,41
South Africa	5,74	[26,49]		-8,34
Rwanda	5,41	[32,87]		2,53
Guinea-Bissau	4,82	[19,37]		-7,20
Tunisia	4,11	[73,92]		-1,71
Libya	4,04	[34,65]		-3,92
Egypt	4,04	[61,96]		-9,55
Kenya	3,88	[32,15]		-6,15
Madagascar	2,94	[20,57]		1,30
Niger	2,84	[26,69]		2,84
Malawi	2,62	[19,48]		-0,15
Uganda	2,53	[29,80]		-4,45
Sierra Leone	2,23	[16,88]		-0,11
Zambia	1,55	[19,82]		1,27
Central African Republic	1,51	[21,82]		0,49
Burundi	1,34	[27,52]		-1,31
Togo	0,73	[33,18]		-2,77
Morocco	0,72	[98,63]		0,66
Liberia	0,65	[10,57]		-0,28
Zimbabwe	0,62	[35,03]		-0,02
Botswana	0,48	[15,89]		-3,77
Gambia	0,35	[14,89]		-2,03
Lesotho	0,22	[9,09]		-0,08
Ethiopia	0,19	[14,29]		-0,41
Mauritania	0,04	[11,11]		-1,92
Congo	0,02	[1,71]		0,02
Chad	0,00	[0,00]		-0,07
Eswatini	0,00	[0,00]		-0,04
South Sudan	0,00	[0,00]		0,00
Sao Tomé e Príncipe	0,00	[0,00]		0,00
Djibouti	0,00	[0,00]		0,00
Mauritius	0,00	[0,00]		0,00
Seychelles	0,00	[0,00]		0,00
Somalia	0,00	[0,00]		0,00

CONCACAF

The group results in stage 2 after the first two match days played with teams ordered by average group position, indicated in the last avg column:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	avg
Honduras	99,62	0,37	0,01	0,00	0,00	1,00
Cuba	0,36	84,94	11,26	2,69	0,75	2,19
Bermuda	0,00	12,87	58,43	19,84	8,86	3,25
Cayman Islands	0,00	1,33	19,19	63,63	15,85	3,94
Antigua and Barbuda	0,02	0,49	11,11	13,84	74,54	4,62
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	avg
Costa Rica	92,94	7,02	0,04	0,00	0,00	1,07
Trinidad and Tobago	7,04	81,52	10,12	1,32	0,00	2,06
St. Kitts and Nevis	0,02	8,67	49,67	41,15	0,49	3,33
Grenada	0,00	2,79	40,05	51,70	5,46	3,60
Bahamas	0,00	0,00	0,12	5,83	94,05	4,94
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	avg
Haiti	71,53	27,89	0,56	0,02	0,00	1,29
Curacao	28,44	67,74	3,75	0,07	0,00	1,75
St. Lucia	0,03	3,88	60,01	26,95	9,13	3,41
Aruba	0,00	0,47	19,05	39,18	41,30	4,21
Barbados	0,00	0,02	16,63	33,78	49,57	4,33
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	avg
Panama	88,55	11,04	0,41	0,00	0,00	1,12
Nicaragua	11,00	69,98	19,01	0,01	0,00	2,08
Guyana	0,45	18,97	74,25	6,24	0,09	2,87
Montserrat	0,00	0,01	5,99	62,68	31,32	4,25
Belize	0,00	0,00	0,34	31,07	68,59	4,68
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	avg
Jamaica	69,20	30,00	0,80	0,00	0,00	1,32
Guatemala	30,64	62,38	6,98	0,00	0,00	1,76
Dominican Republic	0,16	7,62	83,04	9,18	0,00	3,01
Dominica	0,00	0,00	9,16	86,14	4,70	3,96
British Virgin Islands	0,00	0,00	0,02	4,68	95,30	4,95
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	avg
El Salvador	53,61	31,44	14,79	0,16	0,00	1,62
Suriname	36,45	47,76	15,69	0,10	0,00	1,79
Puerto Rico	9,94	20,47	54,93	14,66	0,00	2,74
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	0,00	0,33	14,58	83,70	1,39	3,86
Anguilla	0,00	0,00	0,01	1,38	98,61	4,99

The group numbers one and two qualify for the next stage. Here are the probabilities to qualify for stage 3. Also a column indicating the difference in %-points compared to the simulations before the start of group stage 2 is given:

team	q_stage 3			diff
Honduras	99,99			5,40
Costa Rica	99,96			1,79
Panama	99,59			0,04
Haiti	99,42			4,40
Jamaica	99,20			2,05
Curacao	96,18			18,17
Guatemala	93,02			6,16
Trinidad and Tobago	88,56			-3,34
Cuba	85,30			13,98
El Salvador	85,05			-6,41
Suriname	84,21			10,83
Nicaragua	80,98			31,93
Puerto Rico	30,41			7,42
Guyana	19,42			-18,41
Bermuda	12,87			-13,66
St. Kitts and Nevis	8,69			4,48
Dominican Republic	7,78			-6,19
St. Lucia	3,91			-10,80
Grenada	2,79			-2,83
Cayman Islands	1,33			0,79
Antigua and Barbuda	0,51			-6,51
Aruba	0,47			-8,60
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	0,33			-11,83
Barbados	0,02			-3,17
Montserrat	0,01			-2,97
Belize	0,00			-10,59
Dominica	0,00			-1,97
Bahamas	0,00			-0,10
British Virgin Islands	0,00			-0,05
Anguilla	0,00			-0,01

OFC

Probabilities to win the semi final and to win the final in stage 1 and qualify for stage 2. In square brackets the probability to win the final given that the team reaches the final is given:

team	win SF	win F
Samoa	96,82	78,97	[81,56]
Cook Islands	84,06	18,70	[22,25]
Tonga	15,94	1,87	[11,73]
American Samoa	3,18	0,46	[14,47]

The group results in stage 2 with teams ordered by average group position, indicated in the last avg column. The stage 1 winner is drawn in the, rather unbalanced, group B:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Solomon Islands	42,42	26,59	18,72	12,27	2,01
New Caledonia	24,76	28,91	27,14	19,19	2,41
Fiji	20,06	24,77	26,02	29,15	2,64
Papua New Guinea	12,76	19,73	28,12	39,39	2,94
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
New Zealand	94,59	4,83	0,55	0,03	1,06
Tahiti	4,03	63,26	26,05	6,66	2,35
Vanuatu	1,28	28,87	61,35	8,50	2,77
Samoa	0,09	2,49	9,71	66,68
Cook Islands	0,01	0,55	2,23	15,91
Tonga	0,00	0,00	0,10	1,77
American Samoa	0,00	0,00	0,01	0,45

Group numbers one and two qualify for stage 3, another set of two one-off semi finals and a final, to be played in New Zealand in March 2025. The winner qualifies for the World Cup, the loser for the IPO in March 2026. The probabilities to qualify for stage 3 and how each team fares in stage 3. In square brackets the probability to win in a knock-out round, given the team qualifies for the round:

team	q_stage 3	win SF			win F		IPO
New Zealand	99,42	95,47	[96,03]		77,59	[81,27]	17,88
Solomon Islands	69,01	36,10	[52,31]		8,49	[23,52]	27,61
New Caledonia	53,67	21,73	[40,49]		5,26	[24,21]	16,47
Fiji	44,83	17,16	[38,28]		4,02	[23,43]	13,14
Tahiti	67,29	15,38	[22,86]		2,76	[17,95]	12,62
Papua New Guinea	32,49	9,49	[29,21]		1,29	[13,59]	8,20
Vanuatu	30,15	4,57	[15,16]		0,59	[12,91]	3,98
Samoa	2,58	0,09	[3,49]		0,00	[0,00]	0,09
Cook Islands	0,56	0,01	[1,79]		0,00	[0,00]	0,01
Tonga	0,00	0,00	[0,00]		0,00	[0,00]	0,00
American Samoa	0,00	0,00	[0,00]		0,00	[0,00]	0,00

CONMEBOL

The group results with teams ordered by average group position, indicated in the last avg column:

team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	avg
Argentina	71,57	18,65	7,18	2,15	0,39	0,06	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	1,41
Colombia	13,26	32,57	31,65	16,49	4,71	1,19	0,09	0,04	0,00	0,00	2,71
Uruguay	12,79	34,25	27,82	16,33	6,31	2,15	0,31	0,04	0,00	0,00	2,77
Brazil	1,85	10,77	22,64	34,67	18,84	8,29	2,33	0,50	0,10	0,01	3,95
Ecuador	0,26	2,33	6,31	17,38	35,03	26,61	8,67	2,57	0,72	0,12	5,17
Venezuela	0,27	1,39	4,14	11,31	26,78	36,22	13,36	4,94	1,31	0,28	5,60
Chile	0,00	0,04	0,21	1,01	4,64	12,86	34,11	24,86	14,97	7,30	7,50
Paraguay	0,00	0,00	0,04	0,44	1,98	6,72	20,18	29,51	27,35	13,78	8,13
Peru	0,00	0,00	0,01	0,21	1,13	4,53	16,13	26,85	32,34	18,80	8,40
Bolivia	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,01	0,19	1,37	4,82	10,69	23,21	59,71	9,34

The first 6 in the group qualify for the World Cup, the group number 7 qualifies for the IPO. Also columns indicating the difference in %-points compared to the simulations after match day 6 are given::

team	direct Q	IPO		diff Q	diff IPO
Argentina	100,00	0,00		0,00	0,00
Colombia	99,87	0,09		0,09	-0,06
Uruguay	99,65	0,31		-0,05	0,06
Brazil	97,06	2,33		-1,06	0,88
Ecuador	87,92	8,67		-2,56	2,76
Venezuela	80,11	13,36		15,43	-6,00
Chile	18,76	34,11		5,08	11,64
Paraguay	9,18	20,18		-2,56	1,66
Peru	5,88	16,13		-4,58	-0,04
Bolivia	1,57	4,82		-9,79	-10,90

---

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.