Saturday, August 10, 2024

Qualification World Cup 2026: 10.000 simulations (August 2024)

In the upcoming September window four new tournaments will start. Here is the last simulation report in a series of four, regarding the qualifications for the World Cup 2026.


In the qualification tournaments for the World Cup 2026 Asia has progressed to stage 3, a group stage consisting of 3 groups of 6 teams each. The draw of the groups was held on June 27th with seedings based on the June 2024 FIFA ranking. This stage is played in a double round robin format, with 2 match days in each of the September, October, November 2024 plus the March and June 2025 windows.

The group winners and runners-up of each group (6 teams in total) qualify for the World Cup. The group numbers three and four qualify for the next stage 4. Asia has 8 direct berths in 2026.


Africa has played group match days 3 and 4 in June and has reserved this Autumn for the qualification of the AFCON 2025. They will continue their world cup qualification in March 2025. 

North and Central America and the Caribbean has started in June with the first two match days in their only 4MD-long single round robin stage 2 group stage. They too take a break (until June next year) to play the complete CONCACAF Nations League 2024/25 this Autumn and next March.

South America has played the first 6 match days in their 18 match day qualification group stage last Autumn and resumes qualification with 6 match days this Autumn, two each in the September, October and November window.

Oceania starts with their first stage this September: two semi finals and a final, hosted by Samoa, between the four lowest ranked teams. Then in October and November 8 teams (the 7 teams who got a bye and the stage one winner) in 2 groups play a single round robin group stage. The draw for these stages was held on July 18th, with seeding based on the July 2024 ranking. The first group match day in October will be hosted by Fiji (group A) and Vanuatu (group B), the second and third match day in November will be hosted by Papua New Guinea (group A) and New Zealand (group B).

Then in March next year stage 3 is played between the group numbers one and two, consisting of two one-off semi finals and a final, to decide which team takes the OFC berth at the World Cup. The losing finalist qualifies for the interconfederational play-offs in March 2026.


I've simulated the complete scheduled qualification for all confederations, except UEFA who leaves it late and starts only in March next year.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.


AFC

The group results in stage 3 with teams ordered by average group position, indicated in the last avg column:


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Iran

61,60

24,10

10,48

3,25

0,55

0,02

1,57

Uzbekistan

21,04

34,59

28,07

12,03

3,68

0,59

2,44

Qatar

14,52

30,11

33,14

16,47

4,82

0,94

2,70

United Arab Emirates

2,34

8,80

20,00

39,24

21,80

7,82

3,93

Korea DPR

0,45

1,99

6,35

20,58

43,54

27,09

4,86

Kyrgyzstan

0,05

0,41

1,96

8,43

25,61

63,54

5,50

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Korea Republic

47,15

28,17

15,42

6,93

2,01

0,32

1,89

Iraq

23,72

27,96

26,23

15,11

5,32

1,66

2,55

Jordan

22,67

27,72

26,80

14,93

5,92

1,96

2,60

Oman

5,60

12,36

20,63

33,99

19,24

8,18

3,73

Palestine

0,58

2,52

7,13

17,27

38,65

33,85

4,92

Kuwait

0,28

1,27

3,79

11,77

28,86

54,03

5,30

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Japan

62,67

29,53

6,48

1,13

0,17

0,02

1,47

Australia

32,01

49,29

14,51

3,24

0,78

0,17

1,92

Saudi Arabia

4,28

15,42

46,25

21,15

9,62

3,28

3,26

Bahrain

0,72

3,60

17,28

34,42

27,21

16,77

4,34

China PR

0,26

1,55

10,66

24,71

33,58

29,24

4,78

Indonesia

0,06

0,61

4,82

15,35

28,64

50,52

5,23




The group numbers 1 and 2 qualify directly for the World Cup, the numbers 3 and 4 qualify for stage 4:


team

Q_dir

stage 4

Japan

92,20

7,61

Iran

85,70

13,73

Australia

81,30

17,75

Korea Republic

75,32

22,35

Uzbekistan

55,63

40,10

Iraq

51,68

41,34

Jordan

50,39

41,73

Qatar

44,63

49,61

Saudi Arabia

19,70

67,40

Oman

17,96

54,62

United Arab Emirates

11,14

59,24

Bahrain

4,32

51,70

Palestine

3,10

24,40

Korea DPR

2,44

26,93

China PR

1,81

35,37

Kuwait

1,55

15,56

Indonesia

0,67

20,17

Kyrgyzstan

0,46

10,39



CAF

The group results after four match days played (of 10) with teams ordered by average group position, indicated in the last avg column:


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Egypt

92,35

6,52

0,98

0,14

0,01

0,00

1,09

Burkina Faso

5,19

54,04

29,18

9,75

1,78

0,06

2,49

Guinea-Bissau

1,62

24,88

37,05

28,07

8,35

0,03

3,17

Sierra Leone

0,77

13,21

26,71

39,70

19,41

0,20

3,64

Ethiopia

0,07

1,33

6,07

22,25

68,17

2,11

4,63

Djibouti

0,00

0,02

0,01

0,09

2,28

97,60

5,97

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Senegal

79,08

16,67

4,07

0,18

0,00

0,00

1,25

Congo DR

14,92

55,08

25,46

4,27

0,25

0,02

2,20

Sudan

5,90

25,67

56,68

10,95

0,80

0,00

2,75

Togo

0,08

2,20

10,42

54,46

26,47

6,37

4,24

Mauritania

0,02

0,36

3,16

27,34

54,42

14,70

4,80

South Sudan

0,00

0,02

0,21

2,80

18,06

78,91

5,76

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

South Africa

59,58

21,67

12,10

4,79

1,52

0,34

1,68

Nigeria

16,66

30,65

25,39

18,37

6,98

1,95

2,74

Benin

16,03

27,03

28,50

17,74

8,01

2,69

2,83

Rwanda

6,36

16,46

22,68

32,48

16,50

5,52

3,53

Lesotho

0,86

2,42

5,74

14,61

38,21

38,16

5,01

Zimbabwe

0,51

1,77

5,59

12,01

28,78

51,34

5,21

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Cameroon

53,80

27,47

14,31

4,35

0,06

0,01

1,69

Cape Verde Islands

27,86

36,10

27,65

8,23

0,15

0,01

2,17

Angola

14,17

24,76

33,92

26,61

0,52

0,02

2,75

Libya

4,17

11,66

23,95

57,60

2,47

0,15

3,43

Mauritius

0,00

0,00

0,07

1,53

55,21

43,19

5,42

Eswatini

0,00

0,01

0,10

1,68

41,59

56,62

5,55

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Morocco

99,24

0,73

0,03

0,00

0,00

1,01

Tanzania

0,68

79,64

14,28

4,57

0,83

2,25

Niger

0,08

10,64

45,65

35,83

7,80

3,41

Zambia

0,00

7,82

32,77

43,31

16,10

3,68

Congo

0,00

1,17

7,27

16,29

75,27

4,66

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Cote d'Ivoire

80,23

17,05

2,32

0,33

0,07

0,00

1,23

Gabon

17,63

63,66

15,27

2,99

0,45

0,00

2,05

Kenya

1,22

12,07

42,99

26,10

17,62

0,00

3,47

Burundi

0,80

4,87

23,27

43,26

27,79

0,01

3,92

Gambia

0,12

2,35

16,15

27,32

53,80

0,26

4,33

Seychelles

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,27

99,73

6,00

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Algeria

75,15

17,33

5,81

1,41

0,30

0,00

1,34

Mozambique

12,89

39,39

28,20

13,75

5,77

0,00

2,60

Guinea

9,80

31,77

37,53

15,60

5,29

0,01

2,75

Uganda

1,34

8,49

18,43

36,98

34,71

0,05

3,95

Botswana

0,82

3,02

10,03

32,26

53,86

0,01

4,35

Somalia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,07

99,93

6,00

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Tunisia

93,62

5,56

0,63

0,15

0,04

0,00

1,07

Namibia

4,07

44,53

27,16

15,15

9,04

0,05

2,81

Equatorial Guinea

1,40

30,30

35,11

21,55

11,51

0,13

3,12

Malawi

0,45

13,45

20,15

29,06

36,59

0,30

3,89

Liberia

0,46

6,15

16,95

34,00

42,10

0,34

4,12

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

0,00

0,01

0,00

0,09

0,72

99,18

5,99

group I

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Ghana

66,75

20,52

8,58

3,31

0,83

0,01

1,51

Mali

17,68

35,02

23,79

16,74

6,56

0,21

2,60

Comoros

8,97

23,24

29,29

26,92

11,51

0,07

3,09

Madagascar

4,80

14,29

25,33

29,86

24,94

0,78

3,58

Central African Republic

1,80

6,92

12,98

22,76

52,84

2,70

4,26

Chad

0,00

0,01

0,03

0,41

3,32

96,23

5,96



The probabilities to qualify for the play-offs as one of the 4 best group runners-up, with in square brackets the probability to qualify for the play-off, given that the team is a group runner-up. Also a column indicating the difference in %-points compared to the simulations after md2:


team

PO

diff

Tanzania

46,02

[57,79]

45,94

Gabon

40,37

[63,42]

-2,39

Congo DR

29,29

[53,18]

6,71

Mozambique

24,07

[61,11]

12,99

Burkina Faso

18,47

[34,18]

-19,61

Cameroon

18,41

[67,02]

-0,37

Cape Verde Islands

18,31

[50,72]

-2,09

Angola

16,23

[65,55]

1,31

Namibia

15,33

[34,43]

-4,44

Guinea

15,18

[47,78]

-6,05

Cote d'Ivoire

13,71

[80,41]

1,73

Mali

12,68

[36,21]

3,15

Senegal

12,45

[74,69]

7,37

Algeria

12,42

[71,67]

5,33

Ghana

12,14

[59,16]

-10,01

Nigeria

11,32

[36,93]

-0,04

Sudan

8,92

[34,75]

7,78

Benin

8,14

[30,11]

7,68

Equatorial Guinea

6,78

[22,38]

-8,41

Comoros

6,14

[26,42]

-1,41

South Africa

5,74

[26,49]

-8,34

Rwanda

5,41

[32,87]

2,53

Guinea-Bissau

4,82

[19,37]

-7,20

Tunisia

4,11

[73,92]

-1,71

Libya

4,04

[34,65]

-3,92

Egypt

4,04

[61,96]

-9,55

Kenya

3,88

[32,15]

-6,15

Madagascar

2,94

[20,57]

1,30

Niger

2,84

[26,69]

2,84

Malawi

2,62

[19,48]

-0,15

Uganda

2,53

[29,80]

-4,45

Sierra Leone

2,23

[16,88]

-0,11

Zambia

1,55

[19,82]

1,27

Central African Republic

1,51

[21,82]

0,49

Burundi

1,34

[27,52]

-1,31

Togo

0,73

[33,18]

-2,77

Morocco

0,72

[98,63]

0,66

Liberia

0,65

[10,57]

-0,28

Zimbabwe

0,62

[35,03]

-0,02

Botswana

0,48

[15,89]

-3,77

Gambia

0,35

[14,89]

-2,03

Lesotho

0,22

[9,09]

-0,08

Ethiopia

0,19

[14,29]

-0,41

Mauritania

0,04

[11,11]

-1,92

Congo

0,02

[1,71]

0,02

Chad

0,00

[0,00]

-0,07

Eswatini

0,00

[0,00]

-0,04

South Sudan

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Djibouti

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Mauritius

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Seychelles

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

Somalia

0,00

[0,00]

0,00



CONCACAF


The group results in stage 2 after the first two match days played with teams ordered by average group position, indicated in the last avg column:

group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Honduras

99,62

0,37

0,01

0,00

0,00

1,00

Cuba

0,36

84,94

11,26

2,69

0,75

2,19

Bermuda

0,00

12,87

58,43

19,84

8,86

3,25

Cayman Islands

0,00

1,33

19,19

63,63

15,85

3,94

Antigua and Barbuda

0,02

0,49

11,11

13,84

74,54

4,62

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Costa Rica

92,94

7,02

0,04

0,00

0,00

1,07

Trinidad and Tobago

7,04

81,52

10,12

1,32

0,00

2,06

St. Kitts and Nevis

0,02

8,67

49,67

41,15

0,49

3,33

Grenada

0,00

2,79

40,05

51,70

5,46

3,60

Bahamas

0,00

0,00

0,12

5,83

94,05

4,94

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Haiti

71,53

27,89

0,56

0,02

0,00

1,29

Curacao

28,44

67,74

3,75

0,07

0,00

1,75

St. Lucia

0,03

3,88

60,01

26,95

9,13

3,41

Aruba

0,00

0,47

19,05

39,18

41,30

4,21

Barbados

0,00

0,02

16,63

33,78

49,57

4,33

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Panama

88,55

11,04

0,41

0,00

0,00

1,12

Nicaragua

11,00

69,98

19,01

0,01

0,00

2,08

Guyana

0,45

18,97

74,25

6,24

0,09

2,87

Montserrat

0,00

0,01

5,99

62,68

31,32

4,25

Belize

0,00

0,00

0,34

31,07

68,59

4,68

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Jamaica

69,20

30,00

0,80

0,00

0,00

1,32

Guatemala

30,64

62,38

6,98

0,00

0,00

1,76

Dominican Republic

0,16

7,62

83,04

9,18

0,00

3,01

Dominica

0,00

0,00

9,16

86,14

4,70

3,96

British Virgin Islands

0,00

0,00

0,02

4,68

95,30

4,95

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

El Salvador

53,61

31,44

14,79

0,16

0,00

1,62

Suriname

36,45

47,76

15,69

0,10

0,00

1,79

Puerto Rico

9,94

20,47

54,93

14,66

0,00

2,74

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

0,00

0,33

14,58

83,70

1,39

3,86

Anguilla

0,00

0,00

0,01

1,38

98,61

4,99



The group numbers one and two qualify for the next stage. Here are the probabilities to qualify for stage 3. Also a column indicating the difference in %-points compared to the simulations before the start of group stage 2 is given:

team

q_stage 3

diff

Honduras

99,99

5,40

Costa Rica

99,96

1,79

Panama

99,59

0,04

Haiti

99,42

4,40

Jamaica

99,20

2,05

Curacao

96,18

18,17

Guatemala

93,02

6,16

Trinidad and Tobago

88,56

-3,34

Cuba

85,30

13,98

El Salvador

85,05

-6,41

Suriname

84,21

10,83

Nicaragua

80,98

31,93

Puerto Rico

30,41

7,42

Guyana

19,42

-18,41

Bermuda

12,87

-13,66

St. Kitts and Nevis

8,69

4,48

Dominican Republic

7,78

-6,19

St. Lucia

3,91

-10,80

Grenada

2,79

-2,83

Cayman Islands

1,33

0,79

Antigua and Barbuda

0,51

-6,51

Aruba

0,47

-8,60

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

0,33

-11,83

Barbados

0,02

-3,17

Montserrat

0,01

-2,97

Belize

0,00

-10,59

Dominica

0,00

-1,97

Bahamas

0,00

-0,10

British Virgin Islands

0,00

-0,05

Anguilla

0,00

-0,01



OFC

Probabilities to win the semi final and to win the final in stage 1 and qualify for stage 2. In square brackets the probability to win the final given that the team reaches the final is given:


team

win SF

win F

Samoa

96,82

78,97

[81,56]

Cook Islands

84,06

18,70

[22,25]

Tonga

15,94

1,87

[11,73]

American Samoa

3,18

0,46

[14,47]


The group results in stage 2 with teams ordered by average group position, indicated in the last avg column. The stage 1 winner is drawn in the, rather unbalanced, group B:


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Solomon Islands

42,42

26,59

18,72

12,27

2,01

New Caledonia

24,76

28,91

27,14

19,19

2,41

Fiji

20,06

24,77

26,02

29,15

2,64

Papua New Guinea

12,76

19,73

28,12

39,39

2,94

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

New Zealand

94,59

4,83

0,55

0,03

1,06

Tahiti

4,03

63,26

26,05

6,66

2,35

Vanuatu

1,28

28,87

61,35

8,50

2,77

Samoa

0,09

2,49

9,71

66,68

Cook Islands

0,01

0,55

2,23

15,91

Tonga

0,00

0,00

0,10

1,77

American Samoa

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,45


Group numbers one and two qualify for stage 3, another set of two one-off semi finals and a final, to be played in New Zealand in March 2025. The winner qualifies for the World Cup, the loser for the IPO in March 2026. The probabilities to qualify for stage 3 and how each team fares in stage 3. In square brackets the probability to win in a knock-out round, given the team qualifies for the round:


team

q_stage 3

win SF

win F

IPO

New Zealand

99,42

95,47

[96,03]

77,59

[81,27]

17,88

Solomon Islands

69,01

36,10

[52,31]

8,49

[23,52]

27,61

New Caledonia

53,67

21,73

[40,49]

5,26

[24,21]

16,47

Fiji

44,83

17,16

[38,28]

4,02

[23,43]

13,14

Tahiti

67,29

15,38

[22,86]

2,76

[17,95]

12,62

Papua New Guinea

32,49

9,49

[29,21]

1,29

[13,59]

8,20

Vanuatu

30,15

4,57

[15,16]

0,59

[12,91]

3,98

Samoa

2,58

0,09

[3,49]

0,00

[0,00]

0,09

Cook Islands

0,56

0,01

[1,79]

0,00

[0,00]

0,01

Tonga

0,00

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

American Samoa

0,00

0,00

[0,00]

0,00

[0,00]

0,00



CONMEBOL


The group results with teams ordered by average group position, indicated in the last avg column:

team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

10th

avg

Argentina

71,57

18,65

7,18

2,15

0,39

0,06

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

1,41

Colombia

13,26

32,57

31,65

16,49

4,71

1,19

0,09

0,04

0,00

0,00

2,71

Uruguay

12,79

34,25

27,82

16,33

6,31

2,15

0,31

0,04

0,00

0,00

2,77

Brazil

1,85

10,77

22,64

34,67

18,84

8,29

2,33

0,50

0,10

0,01

3,95

Ecuador

0,26

2,33

6,31

17,38

35,03

26,61

8,67

2,57

0,72

0,12

5,17

Venezuela

0,27

1,39

4,14

11,31

26,78

36,22

13,36

4,94

1,31

0,28

5,60

Chile

0,00

0,04

0,21

1,01

4,64

12,86

34,11

24,86

14,97

7,30

7,50

Paraguay

0,00

0,00

0,04

0,44

1,98

6,72

20,18

29,51

27,35

13,78

8,13

Peru

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,21

1,13

4,53

16,13

26,85

32,34

18,80

8,40

Bolivia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,19

1,37

4,82

10,69

23,21

59,71

9,34



The first 6 in the group qualify for the World Cup, the group number 7 qualifies for the IPO. Also columns indicating the difference in %-points compared to the simulations after match day 6 are given::

team

direct Q

IPO

diff Q

diff IPO

Argentina

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Colombia

99,87

0,09

0,09

-0,06

Uruguay

99,65

0,31

-0,05

0,06

Brazil

97,06

2,33

-1,06

0,88

Ecuador

87,92

8,67

-2,56

2,76

Venezuela

80,11

13,36

15,43

-6,00

Chile

18,76

34,11

5,08

11,64

Paraguay

9,18

20,18

-2,56

1,66

Peru

5,88

16,13

-4,58

-0,04

Bolivia

1,57

4,82

-9,79

-10,90



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

3 comments:

  1. I think the CAF simulations might not handle the five team group correctly. Tanzania have beaten Niger and Zambia away, and lost to Morocco at home. I would think they should have a much higher chance of being among the best 2nd placed teams

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think you are completely right. Well spotted and thanks for the feedback!

      In all groups except group E I didn't left the matches against the group number last out when comparing the performances of the group runners-up. My apologies.

      The table with the probabilities to qualify for the play-offs in Africa is amended now. Tanzania now has indeed the highest chance to qualify for the play-offs :)

      Delete
  2. Upcoming ranking september

    ReplyDelete