Wednesday, August 7, 2024

UEFA Nations League 2024/25: 10.000 simulations (August 2024)

In the upcoming September window four new tournaments will start. Here is the third simulation report in a series of four, regarding the UEFA Nations League 2024/25.


In this competition there are 4 leagues. Leagues A to C consist of 4 groups with 4 teams per group. League D consists of two groups of 3 teams. All groups are played in a double round-robin format.

The group stage of this competition will be played on six matchdays in the September, October and November windows. In March next year the new introduced quarterfinal round with 4 home-and-away play-offs between the winners and runners-up of the 4 league A groups will be played, with group winners drawn against a runner-up from another group and playing the second leg at home. The draw for all play-offs is on November 22nd. The winners of the quarter finals advance to the Final Four in June 2025.


The promotion/relegation format is also adapted in this edition: as usual the group winners of leagues B, C and D will be promoted, while the group numbers 4 in leagues A and B and the two worst group numbers 4 from league C will be relegated. New are the promotion/relegation play-offs (with the higher ranked team playing the second leg at home) between:

- league A group numbers 3 and league B group runners-up (4)

- league B group numbers 3 and league C group runners-up (4)

- the two best ranked group numbers 4 from league C and the league D group runners-up (2).

These 10 home-and-away play-offs are also played in March next year, except for the last two encounters. These two play-offs will be played in March 2026. This to create enough room in March next year for the tight match schedule for the 5-team groups in the UEFA World Cup 2026 qualification.


Like the previous European qualification for the World Cup 2022 the group winners of the UNL 24/25 have a second shot at qualification in case they don't qualify directly for WC2026 as winner of their qualification group. The 12 group runners-up will participate, together with the 4 best UNL 24/25 group winners who didn't finish as winner or runner-up in their WC-qualification group, in 4 play-off paths in March 2026 to fight for the final 4 UEFA berths for the World Cup in the USA, Mexico and Canada.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. 


The group results with teams ordered by average group position in the last column:


group A-1

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Portugal

49,45

31,54

13,95

5,06

1,75

Croatia

37,15

36,10

18,43

8,32

1,98

Scotland

7,14

16,43

33,93

42,50

3,12

Poland

6,26

15,93

33,69

44,12

3,16

group A-2

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

France

61,34

26,86

11,49

0,31

1,51

Belgium

22,50

38,72

36,68

2,10

2,18

Italy

16,06

33,81

46,51

3,62

2,38

Israel

0,10

0,61

5,32

93,97

3,93

group A-3

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Netherlands

49,57

33,16

16,37

0,90

1,69

Germany

37,96

39,14

21,30

1,60

1,87

Hungary

12,36

26,64

53,65

7,35

2,56

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,11

1,06

8,68

90,15

3,89

group A-4

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Spain

78,54

15,97

4,30

1,19

1,28

Switzerland

12,48

41,81

27,10

18,61

2,52

Denmark

5,25

23,76

35,60

35,39

3,01

Serbia

3,73

18,46

33,00

44,81

3,19

group B-1

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Ukraine

36,21

27,36

21,72

14,71

2,15

Czech Republic

29,75

28,29

23,73

18,23

2,30

Georgia

22,99

25,86

27,38

23,77

2,52

Albania

11,05

18,49

27,17

43,29

3,03

group B-2

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

England

80,26

15,47

3,54

0,73

1,25

Greece

12,54

43,58

28,59

15,29

2,47

Finland

3,73

20,59

34,30

41,38

3,13

Republic of Ireland

3,47

20,36

33,57

42,60

3,15

group B-3

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Austria

55,05

28,72

14,53

1,70

1,63

Slovenia

26,08

36,21

31,15

6,56

2,18

Norway

18,28

31,66

39,89

10,17

2,42

Kazakhstan

0,59

3,41

14,43

81,57

3,77

group B-4

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Turkey

59,12

25,69

10,99

4,20

1,60

Wales

25,88

35,49

24,96

13,67

2,26

Iceland

7,86

19,69

33,21

39,24

3,04

Montenegro

7,14

19,13

30,84

42,89

3,09

group C-1

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Slovakia

47,39

34,53

13,97

4,11

1,75

Sweden

41,42

37,11

16,69

4,78

1,85

Azerbaijan

9,00

19,87

43,13

28,00

2,90

Estonia

2,19

8,49

26,21

63,11

3,50

group C-2

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Romania

73,50

19,68

5,45

1,37

1,35

Kosovo

19,21

45,80

24,57

10,42

2,26

Lithuania

4,62

20,48

37,81

37,09

3,07

Cyprus

2,67

14,04

32,17

51,12

3,32

group C-3

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Northern Ireland

34,79

28,30

22,61

14,30

2,16

Luxembourg

32,10

29,36

23,31

15,23

2,22

Bulgaria

23,08

25,69

27,42

23,81

2,52

Belarus

10,03

16,65

26,66

46,66

3,10

group C-4

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

North Macedonia

57,83

27,35

11,31

3,51

1,61

Armenia

29,90

39,79

21,46

8,85

2,09

Latvia

8,18

20,51

38,20

33,11

2,96

Faroe Islands

4,09

12,35

29,03

54,53

3,34

group D-1

1st

2nd

3rd

avg

Gibraltar

60,99

30,60

8,41

1,47

Liechtenstein

32,75

48,34

18,91

1,86

San Marino

6,26

21,06

72,68

2,66

group D-2

1st

2nd

3rd

avg

Moldova

58,20

30,15

11,65

1,53

Malta

31,75

43,46

24,79

1,93

Andorra

10,05

26,39

63,56

2,54



The promotion/relegation probabilities with separate columns for the probabilities to finish on certain group positions and then Win or Lose the following promotion/relegation play-off: In league C the column nr_4_R contains the chances to be one of the two worst group numbers 4 in this league.


League A

team

in A

A->B

nr_1_2

nr_3_W

nr3_L

nr_4

Spain

97,80

2,20

94,51

3,29

1,01

1,19

France

96,13

3,87

88,20

7,93

3,56

0,31

Netherlands

92,20

7,80

82,73

9,47

6,90

0,90

Portugal

89,63

10,37

80,99

8,64

5,31

5,06

Germany

89,41

10,59

77,10

12,31

8,99

1,60

Croatia

83,60

16,40

73,25

10,35

8,08

8,32

Belgium

83,18

16,82

61,22

21,96

14,72

2,10

Switzerland

70,01

29,99

54,29

15,72

11,38

18,61

Italy

76,04

23,96

49,87

26,17

20,34

3,62

Hungary

63,14

36,86

39,00

24,14

29,51

7,35

Denmark

46,89

53,11

29,01

17,88

17,72

35,39

Scotland

37,53

62,47

23,57

13,96

19,97

42,50

Serbia

38,20

61,80

22,19

16,01

16,99

44,81

Poland

35,67

64,33

22,19

13,48

20,21

44,12

Bosnia-Herzegovina

2,71

97,29

1,17

1,54

7,14

90,15

Israel

2,14

97,86

0,71

1,43

3,89

93,97

League B

team

B->A

in B

B->C

nr_1

nr_2_W

nr2_L

nr_3_W

nr3_L

nr_4

England

91,60

6,95

1,45

80,26

11,34

4,13

2,82

0,72

0,73

Austria

73,16

21,32

5,52

55,05

18,11

10,61

10,71

3,82

1,70

Turkey

72,84

19,46

7,70

59,12

13,72

11,97

7,49

3,50

4,20

Ukraine

52,09

27,02

20,89

36,21

15,88

11,48

15,54

6,18

14,71

Slovenia

45,56

37,76

16,68

26,08

19,48

16,73

21,03

10,12

6,56

Czech Republic

43,89

28,91

27,20

29,75

14,14

14,15

14,76

8,97

18,23

Wales

40,96

35,15

23,89

25,88

15,08

20,41

14,74

10,22

13,67

Georgia

35,08

30,77

34,15

22,99

12,09

13,77

17,00

10,38

23,77

Greece

34,89

39,70

25,41

12,54

22,35

21,23

18,47

10,12

15,29

Norway

34,16

41,47

24,37

18,28

15,88

15,78

25,69

14,20

10,17

Albania

18,21

26,59

55,20

11,05

7,16

11,33

15,26

11,91

43,29

Iceland

14,44

28,63

56,93

7,86

6,58

13,11

15,52

17,69

39,24

Montenegro

13,52

26,96

59,52

7,14

6,38

12,75

14,21

16,63

42,89

Finland

12,42

31,22

56,36

3,73

8,69

11,90

19,32

14,98

41,38

Republic of Ireland

11,44

30,40

58,16

3,47

7,97

12,39

18,01

15,56

42,60

Kazakhstan

1,46

8,15

90,39

0,59

0,87

2,54

5,61

8,82

81,57

League C

team

C->B

in C

C->D

nr_1

nr_2_W

nr2_L

nr_3

nr_4_W

nr_4_L

nr_4_R

Romania

84,14

15,52

0,34

73,50

10,64

9,04

5,45

1,03

0,15

0,19

North Macedonia

69,37

29,30

1,33

57,83

11,54

15,81

11,31

2,18

0,71

0,62

Slovakia

68,11

30,55

1,34

47,39

20,72

13,81

13,97

2,77

0,40

0,94

Sweden

63,49

34,92

1,59

41,42

22,07

15,04

16,69

3,19

0,43

1,16

Northern Ireland

46,27

47,37

6,36

34,79

11,48

16,82

22,61

7,94

2,20

4,16

Luxembourg

44,06

49,45

6,49

32,10

11,96

17,40

23,31

8,74

2,21

4,28

Armenia

43,17

52,56

4,27

29,90

13,27

26,52

21,46

4,58

1,80

2,47

Kosovo

37,60

57,09

5,31

19,21

18,39

27,41

24,57

5,11

1,63

3,68

Bulgaria

32,77

55,50

11,73

23,08

9,69

16,00

27,42

12,08

3,65

8,08

Azerbaijan

17,21

65,92

16,87

9,00

8,21

11,66

43,13

11,13

2,85

14,02

Belarus

16,47

55,27

28,26

10,03

6,44

10,21

26,66

18,40

6,02

22,24

Latvia

13,04

65,21

21,75

8,18

4,86

15,65

38,20

11,36

6,80

14,95

Lithuania

10,46

63,62

25,92

4,62

5,84

14,64

37,81

11,17

5,19

20,73

Faroe Islands

6,44

52,43

41,13

4,09

2,35

10,00

29,03

13,40

10,77

30,36

Cyprus

6,23

55,12

38,65

2,67

3,56

10,48

32,17

12,47

7,22

31,43

Estonia

4,99

47,68

47,33

2,19

2,80

5,69

26,21

15,78

6,64

40,69

League D

team

D->C

in D

nr_1

nr_2_W

nr2_L

nr_3

Moldova

74,20

25,80

58,20

16,00

14,15

11,65

Gibraltar

66,84

33,16

60,99

5,85

24,75

8,41

Malta

50,97

49,03

31,75

19,22

24,24

24,79

Liechtenstein

40,37

59,63

32,75

7,62

40,72

18,91

Andorra

18,65

81,35

10,05

8,60

17,79

63,56

San Marino

7,64

92,36

6,26

1,38

19,68

72,68



The probabilities for the quarter finals in league A and for the Final Four. In square brackets the probability to win in a knock-out round is presented, given that the team is qualified for the round.


team

in QF

in SF

in Final

Winner

Spain

94,51

[71,52]

67,59

[72,84]

49,23

[63,72]

31,37

France

88,20

[60,99]

53,79

[61,48]

33,07

[54,73]

18,10

Netherlands

82,73

[51,13]

42,30

[49,95]

21,13

[43,92]

9,28

Portugal

80,99

[51,34]

41,58

[47,74]

19,85

[44,94]

8,92

Germany

77,10

[47,86]

36,90

[45,12]

16,65

[42,40]

7,06

Belgium

61,22

[49,72]

30,44

[47,14]

14,35

[45,64]

6,55

Croatia

73,25

[45,45]

33,29

[41,15]

13,70

[40,88]

5,60

Italy

49,87

[44,54]

22,21

[41,60]

9,24

[45,13]

4,17

Switzerland

54,29

[47,01]

25,52

[36,68]

9,36

[43,70]

4,09

Hungary

39,00

[34,00]

13,26

[31,98]

4,24

[36,32]

1,54

Denmark

29,01

[38,47]

11,16

[28,94]

3,23

[39,94]

1,29

Serbia

22,19

[36,95]

8,20

[29,76]

2,44

[38,11]

0,93

Scotland

23,57

[28,94]

6,82

[26,69]

1,82

[30,22]

0,55

Poland

22,19

[30,10]

6,68

[25,00]

1,67

[32,93]

0,55

Israel

0,71

[19,72]

0,14

[7,14]

0,01

[0,00]

0,00

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1,17

[10,26]

0,12

[8,33]

0,01

[0,00]

0,00



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

1 comment:

  1. By the way: there hasn't been any confirmation on which seeding instrument is used for the draw of the UEFA qualification groups for the World Cup 2026. I still expect that, as usual, the FIFA ranking is used, although that could imply some further draw constraints given the 12 play-offs that need to be played in March 2025 and the Final Four in June 2025.

    Others think that UEFA will try to convince FIFA to use the Nations League ranking after the UNL group stage (that is already customary for the seeding of the draw for EURO qualification groups). I strongly feel that, in that case, it should at least be made public well before the start of the UNL next month because in that case the performances in the UNL2024/25 would get a much higher importance.

    It is strange anyway that there isn't anything confirmed yet about the choice of the seeding instrument, so right before the start of the UNL.

    See for a more complete discussion on this topic: this forum

    ReplyDelete