UEFA Nations League 2024/25: 10.000 simulations (August 2024)

In the upcoming September window four new tournaments will start. Here is the third simulation report in a series of four, regarding the UEFA Nations League 2024/25.

In this competition there are 4 leagues. Leagues A to C consist of 4 groups with 4 teams per group. League D consists of two groups of 3 teams. All groups are played in a double round-robin format.

The group stage of this competition will be played on six matchdays in the September, October and November windows. In March next year the new introduced quarterfinal round with 4 home-and-away play-offs between the winners and runners-up of the 4 league A groups will be played, with group winners drawn against a runner-up from another group and playing the second leg at home. The draw for all play-offs is on November 22nd. The winners of the quarter finals advance to the Final Four in June 2025.

The promotion/relegation format is also adapted in this edition: as usual the group winners of leagues B, C and D will be promoted, while the group numbers 4 in leagues A and B and the two worst group numbers 4 from league C will be relegated. New are the promotion/relegation play-offs (with the higher ranked team playing the second leg at home) between:

- league A group numbers 3 and league B group runners-up (4)

- league B group numbers 3 and league C group runners-up (4)

- the two best ranked group numbers 4 from league C and the league D group runners-up (2).

These 10 home-and-away play-offs are also played in March next year, except for the last two encounters. These two play-offs will be played in March 2026. This to create enough room in March next year for the tight match schedule for the 5-team groups in the UEFA World Cup 2026 qualification.

Like the previous European qualification for the World Cup 2022 the group winners of the UNL 24/25 have a second shot at qualification in case they don't qualify directly for WC2026 as winner of their qualification group. The 12 group runners-up will participate, together with the 4 best UNL 24/25 group winners who didn't finish as winner or runner-up in their WC-qualification group, in 4 play-off paths in March 2026 to fight for the final 4 UEFA berths for the World Cup in the USA, Mexico and Canada.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. 

The group results with teams ordered by average group position in the last column:

group A-1	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Portugal	49,45	31,54	13,95	5,06	1,75
Croatia	37,15	36,10	18,43	8,32	1,98
Scotland	7,14	16,43	33,93	42,50	3,12
Poland	6,26	15,93	33,69	44,12	3,16
group A-2	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
France	61,34	26,86	11,49	0,31	1,51
Belgium	22,50	38,72	36,68	2,10	2,18
Italy	16,06	33,81	46,51	3,62	2,38
Israel	0,10	0,61	5,32	93,97	3,93
group A-3	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Netherlands	49,57	33,16	16,37	0,90	1,69
Germany	37,96	39,14	21,30	1,60	1,87
Hungary	12,36	26,64	53,65	7,35	2,56
Bosnia-Herzegovina	0,11	1,06	8,68	90,15	3,89
group A-4	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Spain	78,54	15,97	4,30	1,19	1,28
Switzerland	12,48	41,81	27,10	18,61	2,52
Denmark	5,25	23,76	35,60	35,39	3,01
Serbia	3,73	18,46	33,00	44,81	3,19
group B-1	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Ukraine	36,21	27,36	21,72	14,71	2,15
Czech Republic	29,75	28,29	23,73	18,23	2,30
Georgia	22,99	25,86	27,38	23,77	2,52
Albania	11,05	18,49	27,17	43,29	3,03
group B-2	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
England	80,26	15,47	3,54	0,73	1,25
Greece	12,54	43,58	28,59	15,29	2,47
Finland	3,73	20,59	34,30	41,38	3,13
Republic of Ireland	3,47	20,36	33,57	42,60	3,15
group B-3	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Austria	55,05	28,72	14,53	1,70	1,63
Slovenia	26,08	36,21	31,15	6,56	2,18
Norway	18,28	31,66	39,89	10,17	2,42
Kazakhstan	0,59	3,41	14,43	81,57	3,77
group B-4	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Turkey	59,12	25,69	10,99	4,20	1,60
Wales	25,88	35,49	24,96	13,67	2,26
Iceland	7,86	19,69	33,21	39,24	3,04
Montenegro	7,14	19,13	30,84	42,89	3,09
group C-1	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Slovakia	47,39	34,53	13,97	4,11	1,75
Sweden	41,42	37,11	16,69	4,78	1,85
Azerbaijan	9,00	19,87	43,13	28,00	2,90
Estonia	2,19	8,49	26,21	63,11	3,50
group C-2	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Romania	73,50	19,68	5,45	1,37	1,35
Kosovo	19,21	45,80	24,57	10,42	2,26
Lithuania	4,62	20,48	37,81	37,09	3,07
Cyprus	2,67	14,04	32,17	51,12	3,32
group C-3	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Northern Ireland	34,79	28,30	22,61	14,30	2,16
Luxembourg	32,10	29,36	23,31	15,23	2,22
Bulgaria	23,08	25,69	27,42	23,81	2,52
Belarus	10,03	16,65	26,66	46,66	3,10
group C-4	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
North Macedonia	57,83	27,35	11,31	3,51	1,61
Armenia	29,90	39,79	21,46	8,85	2,09
Latvia	8,18	20,51	38,20	33,11	2,96
Faroe Islands	4,09	12,35	29,03	54,53	3,34
group D-1	1st	2nd	3rd		avg
Gibraltar	60,99	30,60	8,41		1,47
Liechtenstein	32,75	48,34	18,91		1,86
San Marino	6,26	21,06	72,68		2,66
group D-2	1st	2nd	3rd		avg
Moldova	58,20	30,15	11,65		1,53
Malta	31,75	43,46	24,79		1,93
Andorra	10,05	26,39	63,56		2,54

The promotion/relegation probabilities with separate columns for the probabilities to finish on certain group positions and then Win or Lose the following promotion/relegation play-off: In league C the column nr_4_R contains the chances to be one of the two worst group numbers 4 in this league.

League A
team	in A	A->B			nr_1_2	nr_3_W	nr3_L	nr_4
Spain	97,80	2,20			94,51	3,29	1,01	1,19
France	96,13	3,87			88,20	7,93	3,56	0,31
Netherlands	92,20	7,80			82,73	9,47	6,90	0,90
Portugal	89,63	10,37			80,99	8,64	5,31	5,06
Germany	89,41	10,59			77,10	12,31	8,99	1,60
Croatia	83,60	16,40			73,25	10,35	8,08	8,32
Belgium	83,18	16,82			61,22	21,96	14,72	2,10
Switzerland	70,01	29,99			54,29	15,72	11,38	18,61
Italy	76,04	23,96			49,87	26,17	20,34	3,62
Hungary	63,14	36,86			39,00	24,14	29,51	7,35
Denmark	46,89	53,11			29,01	17,88	17,72	35,39
Scotland	37,53	62,47			23,57	13,96	19,97	42,50
Serbia	38,20	61,80			22,19	16,01	16,99	44,81
Poland	35,67	64,33			22,19	13,48	20,21	44,12
Bosnia-Herzegovina	2,71	97,29			1,17	1,54	7,14	90,15
Israel	2,14	97,86			0,71	1,43	3,89	93,97
League B
team	B->A	in B	B->C		nr_1	nr_2_W	nr2_L	nr_3_W	nr3_L	nr_4
England	91,60	6,95	1,45		80,26	11,34	4,13	2,82	0,72	0,73
Austria	73,16	21,32	5,52		55,05	18,11	10,61	10,71	3,82	1,70
Turkey	72,84	19,46	7,70		59,12	13,72	11,97	7,49	3,50	4,20
Ukraine	52,09	27,02	20,89		36,21	15,88	11,48	15,54	6,18	14,71
Slovenia	45,56	37,76	16,68		26,08	19,48	16,73	21,03	10,12	6,56
Czech Republic	43,89	28,91	27,20		29,75	14,14	14,15	14,76	8,97	18,23
Wales	40,96	35,15	23,89		25,88	15,08	20,41	14,74	10,22	13,67
Georgia	35,08	30,77	34,15		22,99	12,09	13,77	17,00	10,38	23,77
Greece	34,89	39,70	25,41		12,54	22,35	21,23	18,47	10,12	15,29
Norway	34,16	41,47	24,37		18,28	15,88	15,78	25,69	14,20	10,17
Albania	18,21	26,59	55,20		11,05	7,16	11,33	15,26	11,91	43,29
Iceland	14,44	28,63	56,93		7,86	6,58	13,11	15,52	17,69	39,24
Montenegro	13,52	26,96	59,52		7,14	6,38	12,75	14,21	16,63	42,89
Finland	12,42	31,22	56,36		3,73	8,69	11,90	19,32	14,98	41,38
Republic of Ireland	11,44	30,40	58,16		3,47	7,97	12,39	18,01	15,56	42,60
Kazakhstan	1,46	8,15	90,39		0,59	0,87	2,54	5,61	8,82	81,57
League C
team	C->B	in C	C->D		nr_1	nr_2_W	nr2_L	nr_3	nr_4_W	nr_4_L	nr_4_R
Romania	84,14	15,52	0,34		73,50	10,64	9,04	5,45	1,03	0,15	0,19
North Macedonia	69,37	29,30	1,33		57,83	11,54	15,81	11,31	2,18	0,71	0,62
Slovakia	68,11	30,55	1,34		47,39	20,72	13,81	13,97	2,77	0,40	0,94
Sweden	63,49	34,92	1,59		41,42	22,07	15,04	16,69	3,19	0,43	1,16
Northern Ireland	46,27	47,37	6,36		34,79	11,48	16,82	22,61	7,94	2,20	4,16
Luxembourg	44,06	49,45	6,49		32,10	11,96	17,40	23,31	8,74	2,21	4,28
Armenia	43,17	52,56	4,27		29,90	13,27	26,52	21,46	4,58	1,80	2,47
Kosovo	37,60	57,09	5,31		19,21	18,39	27,41	24,57	5,11	1,63	3,68
Bulgaria	32,77	55,50	11,73		23,08	9,69	16,00	27,42	12,08	3,65	8,08
Azerbaijan	17,21	65,92	16,87		9,00	8,21	11,66	43,13	11,13	2,85	14,02
Belarus	16,47	55,27	28,26		10,03	6,44	10,21	26,66	18,40	6,02	22,24
Latvia	13,04	65,21	21,75		8,18	4,86	15,65	38,20	11,36	6,80	14,95
Lithuania	10,46	63,62	25,92		4,62	5,84	14,64	37,81	11,17	5,19	20,73
Faroe Islands	6,44	52,43	41,13		4,09	2,35	10,00	29,03	13,40	10,77	30,36
Cyprus	6,23	55,12	38,65		2,67	3,56	10,48	32,17	12,47	7,22	31,43
Estonia	4,99	47,68	47,33		2,19	2,80	5,69	26,21	15,78	6,64	40,69
League D
team	D->C	in D			nr_1	nr_2_W	nr2_L	nr_3
Moldova	74,20	25,80			58,20	16,00	14,15	11,65
Gibraltar	66,84	33,16			60,99	5,85	24,75	8,41
Malta	50,97	49,03			31,75	19,22	24,24	24,79
Liechtenstein	40,37	59,63			32,75	7,62	40,72	18,91
Andorra	18,65	81,35			10,05	8,60	17,79	63,56
San Marino	7,64	92,36			6,26	1,38	19,68	72,68

The probabilities for the quarter finals in league A and for the Final Four. In square brackets the probability to win in a knock-out round is presented, given that the team is qualified for the round.

team	in QF			in SF			in Final			Winner
Spain	94,51	[71,52]		67,59	[72,84]		49,23	[63,72]		31,37
France	88,20	[60,99]		53,79	[61,48]		33,07	[54,73]		18,10
Netherlands	82,73	[51,13]		42,30	[49,95]		21,13	[43,92]		9,28
Portugal	80,99	[51,34]		41,58	[47,74]		19,85	[44,94]		8,92
Germany	77,10	[47,86]		36,90	[45,12]		16,65	[42,40]		7,06
Belgium	61,22	[49,72]		30,44	[47,14]		14,35	[45,64]		6,55
Croatia	73,25	[45,45]		33,29	[41,15]		13,70	[40,88]		5,60
Italy	49,87	[44,54]		22,21	[41,60]		9,24	[45,13]		4,17
Switzerland	54,29	[47,01]		25,52	[36,68]		9,36	[43,70]		4,09
Hungary	39,00	[34,00]		13,26	[31,98]		4,24	[36,32]		1,54
Denmark	29,01	[38,47]		11,16	[28,94]		3,23	[39,94]		1,29
Serbia	22,19	[36,95]		8,20	[29,76]		2,44	[38,11]		0,93
Scotland	23,57	[28,94]		6,82	[26,69]		1,82	[30,22]		0,55
Poland	22,19	[30,10]		6,68	[25,00]		1,67	[32,93]		0,55
Israel	0,71	[19,72]		0,14	[7,14]		0,01	[0,00]		0,00
Bosnia-Herzegovina	1,17	[10,26]		0,12	[8,33]		0,01	[0,00]		0,00

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.