Hi everyone, with this quick post I just wanted to show the intention to keep this site alive by taking a sneak peek at the FIFA ranking for October 2024 and of course to say a big thank you to what Ed did for us and on this site. Also a big thanks to Margot for making it possible for this site to be continued and allowing me access to publish.
While it wasn't customary for Ed to publish the ranking before FIFA (maybe there was a reason?), but as I have been calculating it myself for years and years, I think even due to this site, I thought this would be the easiest to start with.
With there having been very few friendlies, and with me not currently having any reason to suspect any of those will be excluded, I don't expect the ranking that will be published on 24 October to be very different from the following.
There's not many big changes in the top 20 apart from Uruguay (L-D) down 3 places and Switzerland (L-D) down 2 places. Other notables: Greece (W-W) up 18 points and 6 places, Tunisia (L-D) down 11 places, Côte d'Ivoire (W-L) down 7, and besides Greece, good upset wins for Bolivia and Peru (1-0 versus Colombia, and 1-0 versus Uruguay respectively).
On the UEFA 2026 World Cup qualifying front there's seemingly no changes, with the Netherlands being in danger of missing the quarter finals, but they should still get one of the 4 FIFA ranking places behind England and Belgium, with Switzerland and Denmark probably vying for the last seeding place.
Finally, with this post I reluctantly start a new era, but I hope it will continue in the same spirit as before. Please give me some time to get my software up-to-date (I had to build in a quick "copy" function this afternoon to produce the table below) and to go through what Ed has been doing over the past years. As I had suggested on this site earlier, if you're interested and have content to publish here, I'm happy to do that together with others, so feel free to contact me.
Pos Country Points +/- +/-
1 Argentina 1883.50 0 -5.52
2 France 1859.85 0 7.93
3 Spain 1844.33 0 7.91
4 England 1807.83 0 -9.45
5 Brazil 1784.37 0 12.35
6 Belgium 1761.27 0 -6.87
7 Portugal 1752.68 1 0.54
8 Netherlands 1748.24 -1 -11.71
9 Italy 1729.40 1 3.09
10 Colombia 1724.37 -1 -14.34
11 Germany 1703.59 2 11.39
12 Croatia 1701.36 0 1.76
13 Morocco 1681.57 1 5.44
14 Uruguay 1680.37 -3 -20.97
15 Japan 1645.09 1 5.49
16 Mexico 1640.67 1 5.00
17 Switzerland 1631.38 -2 -9.62
18 United States 1630.97 0 -1.22
19 Iran 1627.58 0 4.66
20 Senegal 1627.13 1 6.26
21 Denmark 1617.34 -1 -4.37
22 South Korea 1589.93 1 17.32
23 Austria 1589.17 -1 8.80
24 Australia 1552.77 1 8.47
25 Ukraine 1552.37 -1 4.08
26 Türkiye 1548.15 0 9.63
27 Ecuador 1536.32 0 0.89
28 Sweden 1530.41 0 2.23
29 Wales 1528.96 0 2.43
30 Egypt 1526.25 1 10.60
31 Poland 1523.19 -1 -1.89
32 Hungary 1519.33 0 8.28
33 Serbia 1511.16 2 6.08
34 Russia 1508.73 0 0.00
35 Canada 1507.27 3 4.97
36 Nigeria 1503.29 3 5.27
37 Algeria 1496.94 4 10.90
38 Peru 1494.24 5 11.03
39 Panama 1493.80 -2 -8.75
40 Côte d'Ivoire 1493.57 -7 -15.55
41 Slovakia 1489.88 1 3.99
42 Greece 1487.42 6 18.25
42 Romania 1487.22 3 5.82
44 Venezuela 1482.47 -4 -6.09
45 Czechia 1480.39 1 7.20
46 Qatar 1478.60 -2 -3.09
47 Tunisia 1478.52 -11 -26.34
48 Norway 1473.50 -1 1.34
49 Cameroon 1472.12 4 13.60
50 Costa Rica 1465.57 0 -0.51
51 Scotland 1461.34 1 -0.41
52 Slovenia 1459.59 -1 -3.39
53 Chile 1455.22 -4 -12.76
54 Mali 1454.84 0 -0.32
55 Paraguay 1440.78 2 16.80
56 Iraq 1434.40 -1 -1.51
57 Democratic Republic of Congo 1431.30 1 14.40
58 Uzbekistan 1429.26 2 16.20
59 Saudi Arabia 1422.67 -3 -10.49
60 South Africa 1415.98 -1 0.91
61 Jamaica 1405.36 0 2.41
62 Burkina Faso 1399.80 1 12.30
63 Ireland 1395.61 -1 0.98
64 Jordan 1380.75 4 3.22
65 Albania 1379.29 2 1.38
66 Finland 1374.58 -2 -9.78
67 Georgia 1365.56 -1 -12.65
68 United Arab Emirates 1361.34 1 -15.88
68 North Macedonia 1361.01 4 9.83
70 Iceland 1353.18 1 -2.57
71 Northern Ireland 1345.06 2 5.42
72 Cape Verde Islands 1340.87 -7 -38.30
73 Ghana 1338.73 -3 -21.70
74 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1324.43 1 -7.96
75 Montenegro 1323.20 -1 -9.49
76 Bahrain 1313.80 0 -1.70
77 Honduras 1312.66 0 1.36
78 Guinea 1312.45 4 14.16
78 Bolivia 1312.36 5 18.61
80 Oman 1305.99 -2 -3.28
81 Israel 1303.65 -2 -4.14
82 Angola 1298.75 3 17.66
83 El Salvador 1297.99 -3 -9.05
84 Bulgaria 1295.11 -3 -7.57
85 Gabon 1294.11 -1 1.23
86 Haiti 1283.67 0 5.11
87 Uganda 1269.79 3 12.15
88 Equatorial Guinea 1266.68 6 16.11
89 Luxembourg 1262.08 -2 0.13
90 Curaçao 1260.87 -2 -0.51
91 New Zealand 1258.11 4 11.03
92 China 1257.29 -1 3.52
93 Syria 1252.19 -1 -0.73
94 Zambia 1251.83 -1 -0.95
95 Benin 1250.96 -6 -6.72
96 Thailand 1231.75 4 8.70
97 Belarus 1231.10 0 2.03
98 Mozambique 1229.01 1 2.98
99 Armenia 1222.74 -3 -7.69
100 Palestine 1218.43 -2 -10.56
100 Kosovo 1218.22 4 12.26
102 Trinidad and Tobago 1214.81 -1 1.56
103 Kyrgyzstan 1207.08 2 5.97
104 Guatemala 1201.34 3 0.92
105 Tajikistan 1196.98 -2 -11.03
106 Kenya 1195.36 -4 -13.60
107 Kazakhstan 1186.46 2 -6.75
108 Comoros 1185.98 10 26.34
109 Madagascar 1180.00 -1 -16.56
110 Sudan 1176.20 10 21.70
111 North Korea 1175.14 0 -7.87
112 Tanzania 1173.84 -2 -14.40
113 Namibia 1173.81 -8 -27.50
114 Mauritania 1168.43 -2 -10.60
115 Lebanon 1167.49 0 0.00
116 Guinea-Bissau 1166.34 -1 0.32
117 Zimbabwe 1162.48 7 27.50
118 Azerbaijan 1161.80 -5 -11.36
119 Vietnam 1161.11 -3 -0.27
120 Congo 1159.42 -3 -0.91
121 Sierra Leone 1149.81 4 15.55
122 Libya 1148.70 -1 -5.27
123 Togo 1147.91 -4 -10.90
124 Estonia 1145.52 -2 5.13
125 India 1133.78 1 0.27
126 Rwanda 1130.04 4 6.72
127 Cyprus 1127.51 -4 -9.55
128 Gambia 1125.62 7 16.56
129 Central African Republic 1125.26 -1 -5.44
130 Indonesia 1118.87 -1 -5.30
131 Niger 1114.73 -4 -17.66
132 Nicaragua 1114.28 -1 -3.76
133 Malaysia 1113.92 -1 -3.72
134 Malawi 1111.16 -1 -6.26
135 Kuwait 1106.42 -1 -5.20
136 Surinam 1105.29 2 10.90
137 Latvia 1093.82 0 -4.15
138 Faroe Islands 1091.52 2 2.01
139 Burundi 1089.49 -3 -12.30
140 Botswana 1088.45 7 38.30
141 Lithuania 1082.36 -2 -8.53
142 Dominican Republic 1071.88 4 14.13
143 St. Kitts and Nevis 1069.25 -2 1.00
144 Turkmenistan 1065.42 0 0.00
145 Philippines 1053.09 2 3.06
146 Fiji 1051.41 4 13.12
147 Solomon Islands 1050.99 -3 -13.12
148 Ethiopia 1049.28 -3 -14.16
149 Liberia 1048.86 -6 -16.11
150 Moldova 1040.83 -1 -1.98
151 Afghanistan 1034.37 0 0.00
152 Lesotho 1032.79 0 -1.23
153 Puerto Rico 1021.62 0 0.00
154 Yemen 1021.24 0 0.00
155 New Caledonia 1020.83 5 11.91
156 Antigua and Barbuda 1020.58 -5 -14.13
157 Vanuatu 1015.52 5 10.02
158 Hong Kong 1015.10 -1 -2.56
159 Tahiti 1009.52 -1 -7.31
160 Eswatini 1009.19 -1 -2.98
161 Guyana 1008.68 -5 -11.30
162 Singapore 1008.26 0 0.00
163 Maldives 1003.48 0 0.00
164 St. Lucia 997.86 0 0.00
165 Myanmar 992.51 2 3.53
166 Cuba 990.18 -1 -1.56
167 Bermuda 986.53 3 13.19
168 Taiwan 985.66 -2 -5.68
169 Malta 980.50 2 8.61
170 Andorra 977.96 -1 -3.74
171 Papua New Guinea 972.32 -3 -11.91
172 South Sudan 955.67 0 -12.15
173 Barbados 955.21 2 11.11
174 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 954.86 0 9.05
175 Grenada 947.22 -2 0.51
176 Nepal 935.93 0 0.00
177 Chad 933.39 0 0.95
178 Mauritius 927.57 0 0.00
179 Belize 925.02 3 11.60
180 Montserrat 924.14 0 0.00
181 Cambodia 921.20 -1 1.50
182 Bhutan 904.06 0 0.00
183 Dominica 903.54 -2 -13.19
184 Brunei 900.75 -1 -6.08
185 Bangladesh 896.71 0 0.00
186 Samoa 890.77 -1 -10.02
187 Laos 889.62 0 0.00
188 Mongolia 883.57 0 0.00
189 American Samoa 883.17 0 0.00
190 São Tomé and Príncipe 878.09 0 0.00
191 Cook Islands 877.53 0 0.00
192 Djibouti 875.13 0 0.00
193 Macao 871.52 0 0.00
194 Cayman Islands 866.71 1 9.34
195 Aruba 863.29 -1 -5.11
196 Eritrea 855.56 0 0.00
197 Timor Leste 850.83 0 6.08
198 Gibraltar 848.32 1 5.92
199 Pakistan 842.59 0 0.00
200 Tonga 835.64 0 0.00
201 Liechtenstein 834.15 3 6.96
202 Seychelles 831.19 0 0.00
203 Somalia 829.81 0 0.00
204 Sri Lanka 827.86 -3 -3.53
205 Guam 821.91 0 0.00
206 Bahamas 818.58 0 1.33
207 Turks and Caicos Islands 803.98 0 1.17
208 British Virgin Islands 780.30 1 -10.33
209 US Virgin Islands 779.71 -1 -12.44
210 Anguilla 769.31 0 -12.77
211 San Marino 737.04 0 -9.01
great work homer.
ReplyDeleteThanks, more to come.
DeleteHomer are you interested in me helping to add some forecasting posts on here, if so is there an email i can reach you
DeleteHi @dopeisland, in terms of forecasting I should be fine for the FIFA ranking, for example, below the top 20 for the next FIFA ranking that will be published on 28 November. Before I publish these completely I do want to do a final check on the software algorithm that I just changed for this though, having used something slightly different before, and check whether I have all the currently known matches that are scheduled in my database. I can do that this weekend and potentially it should just be some friendlies that might be missing. For the simulations for who will win the Nations League groups or who will qualify for the World Cup I'm probably a bit further away from being able to publish these, but I also plan to add this to my software, given that I have the ELO prediction algorithm ready and my archive has the full tournament structures already also. As for your site and what you publish there and on other sites, I do like your models and graphics that you publish there, but you publish them there already right? Don't know if you want to keep that or contribute them on this site... I'd question the legality of using UEFA logos and that, but... In terms of contact, could you email Margot? She can then forward your email or let you know the email address that she set up for me for this site.
Delete1 Argentina 1892.06 0 8.56
2 France 1866.98 0 7.13
3 Spain 1853.37 0 9.04
4 England 1813.81 0 5.98
5 Brazil 1800.56 0 16.19
6 Belgium 1770.46 0 9.19
7 Netherlands 1755.05 1 6.81
8 Portugal 1748.84 -1 -3.84
9 Colombia 1719.45 1 -4.93
10 Italy 1716.82 -1 -12.59
11 Croatia 1713.87 1 12.51
12 Germany 1711.29 -1 7.70
13 Morocco 1688.17 0 6.59
14 Uruguay 1683.70 0 3.34
15 Japan 1652.43 0 7.33
16 Mexico 1647.24 0 6.57
17 United States 1639.75 1 8.78
18 Senegal 1637.37 2 10.24
19 Iran 1635.31 0 7.73
20 Switzerland 1632.56 -3 1.19
@Homer thanks for taking over this very useful site. All the best in the future.
ReplyDeleteThank you for taking over this site, Homer - I'm sure Ed would be glad. Margot, so sorry for your loss - I hope everyone's kind words here have been of some comfort, as well as the knowledge that we all enjoyed his work.
ReplyDeleteOK, so no major changes and the prediction was solid apart from one friendly match that I forgot to add, the Myanmar 0-0 Sri Lanka match on 13 October. FIFA mention "17" friendlies though, I see only 15. Probably they mean the two ASEAN Championship qualifying matches, which are treated like friendlies in terms of ranking points... but in no other way are "friendlies" in my opinion.
ReplyDelete