Here the first attempt at the point exchanges for this month. For now this is from today, with a lot of details regarding dates and venues of the African Nations Cup TBD. I expect several matches to be played in Morocco again, so that will affect the expectation and probabilities. Given the expected changes I'll update this early next week when the results of the first three matches are known and if there's and venue changes.
As with Ed's list, for second and subsequent matches of the same team, the calculations are done assuming that the previous match(es) ended in the expected result(s).
Sorry about the formatting, still getting to grips with the editor...
R = 1 (home win), X (draw), 2 (loss)
Exp = FIFA ranking win expectancy
Win/Draw/Loss = point exchanges if Win/Draw/Loss, for now no matches of final tournaments where the point exchanges can be non-reciprocal, reverse for "away" team
Any comments or questions, don't hesitate to ask.
Updated 2024-11-05 05:50 UTC, including recent results in the African Nations Championship Qualifying, and adding known dates/venues for African Nations Cup Qualifying.
Date C1 C2 Tournament I R Exp Win Draw Loss
2024-11-13 BAN - MDV Friendly 2024 10 2 0.40 6.01 1.01 -3.99
2024-11-13 CHA - SLE African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.31 17.34 4.84 -7.66
2024-11-13 LBR - TOG African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.41 14.85 2.35 -10.15
2024-11-13 NAM - CMR African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.24 18.99 6.49 -6.01
2024-11-13 TJK - NEP Friendly 2024 10 1 0.73 2.69 -2.31 -7.31
2024-11-14 ARM - FRO UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.62 5.65 -1.85 -9.35
2024-11-14 AUS - KSA World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.62 9.44 -3.06 -15.56
2024-11-14 BHR - CHN World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.55 11.15 -1.35 -13.85
2024-11-14 BEL - ITA UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.53 7.04 -0.46 -7.96
2024-11-14 BEN - NGA African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.27 18.19 5.69 -6.81
2024-11-14 BFA - SEN African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.29 17.63 5.13 -7.37
2024-11-14 BDI - MWI African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 X 0.48 13.02 0.52 -11.98
2024-11-14 CRC - PAN CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.47 7.91 0.41 -7.09
2024-11-14 ECU - BOL World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.70 7.44 -5.06 -17.56
2024-11-14 EQG - ALG African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.29 17.69 5.19 -7.31
2024-11-14 FRA - ISR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.89 1.59 -5.91 -13.41
2024-11-14 GRE - ENG UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.23 11.61 4.11 -3.39
2024-11-14 HKG - PHI Friendly 2024 10 X 0.46 5.36 0.36 -4.64
2024-11-14 IDN - JPN World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.12 22.07 9.57 -2.93
2024-11-14 IRQ - JOR World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.55 11.22 -1.28 -13.78
2024-11-14 IRL - FIN UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.52 7.20 -0.30 -7.80
2024-11-14 JAM - USA CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.30 10.56 3.06 -4.44
2024-11-14 KAZ - AUT UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.18 12.36 4.86 -2.64
2024-11-14 KUW - KOR World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.14 21.62 9.12 -3.38
2024-11-14 LES - CTA African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.41 14.66 2.16 -10.34
2024-11-14 MAD - TUN African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.24 18.97 6.47 -6.03
2024-11-14 MAS - LAO Friendly 2024 10 1 0.70 2.97 -2.03 -7.03
2024-11-14 MLT - LIE Friendly 2024 10 1 0.64 3.63 -1.37 -6.37
2024-11-14 MSR - VIN CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.47 7.94 0.44 -7.06
2024-11-14 NIG - SDN African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.44 13.97 1.47 -11.03
2024-11-14 PRK - IRN World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.15 21.26 8.76 -3.74
2024-11-14 MKD - LVA UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.74 3.96 -3.54 -11.04
2024-11-14 OMA - PLE World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.58 10.42 -2.08 -14.58
2024-11-14 PNG - FIJ World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.42 14.38 1.88 -10.62
2024-11-14 PAR - ARG World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.15 21.14 8.64 -3.86
2024-11-14 QAT - UZB World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.55 11.32 -1.18 -13.68
2024-11-14 RWA - LBY African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 X 0.48 13.00 0.50 -12.00
2024-11-14 SIN - MYA Friendly 2024 10 X 0.52 4.83 -0.17 -5.17
2024-11-14 SVN - NOR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.49 7.70 0.20 -7.30
2024-11-14 SOL - NCL World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.53 11.78 -0.72 -13.22
2024-11-14 SSD - CGO African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.32 17.06 4.56 -7.94
2024-11-14 SKN - CUB CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.58 10.62 -1.88 -14.38
2024-11-14 THA - LIB Friendly 2024 10 1 0.56 4.39 -0.61 -5.61
2024-11-14 UAE - KGZ World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.64 8.90 -3.60 -16.10
2024-11-14 VEN - BRA World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.24 19.03 6.53 -5.97
2024-11-15 ANG - GHA African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 X 0.46 13.46 0.96 -11.54
2024-11-15 BRB - GUY CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.45 13.78 1.28 -11.22
2024-11-15 BOT - MTN African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.42 14.40 1.90 -10.60
2024-11-15 CPV - EGY African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.33 16.77 4.27 -8.23
2024-11-15 CYP - LTU UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.54 6.85 -0.65 -8.15
2024-11-15 DEN - ESP UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.30 10.57 3.07 -4.43
2024-11-15 SWZ - GNB African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.36 16.02 3.52 -8.98
2024-11-15 GAB - MAR African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.18 20.39 7.89 -4.61
2024-11-15 GAM - COM African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.44 13.94 1.44 -11.06
2024-11-15 HON - MEX CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.22 11.68 4.18 -3.32
2024-11-15 LUX - BUL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.47 7.97 0.47 -7.03
2024-11-15 MOZ - MLI African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.30 17.60 5.10 -7.40
2024-11-15 NZL - VAN World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.72 7.07 -5.43 -17.93
2024-11-15 NIR - BLR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.61 5.89 -1.61 -9.11
2024-11-15 PER - CHI World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.54 11.57 -0.93 -13.43
2024-11-15 POR - POL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.71 4.40 -3.10 -10.60
2024-11-15 PUR - ARU CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.65 5.29 -2.21 -9.71
2024-11-15 ROU - KVX UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.74 3.94 -3.56 -11.06
2024-11-15 RUS - BRU Friendly 2024 10 1 0.91 0.88 -4.12 -9.12
2024-11-15 SAM - TAH World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.39 15.30 2.80 -9.70
2024-11-15 SMR - GIB UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.39 9.08 1.58 -5.92
2024-11-15 SCO - CRO UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.28 10.73 3.23 -4.27
2024-11-15 LCA - GRN CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.55 6.77 -0.73 -8.23
2024-11-15 SUR - CAN CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.18 12.36 4.86 -2.64
2024-11-15 SUI - SRB UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.61 5.80 -1.70 -9.20
2024-11-15 UGA - RSA African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.36 15.92 3.42 -9.08
2024-11-15 URU - COL World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.46 13.55 1.05 -11.45
2024-11-15 ZAM - CIV African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.28 17.92 5.42 -7.08
2024-11-15 ZIM - KEN African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 X 0.47 13.33 0.83 -11.67
2024-11-16 AFG - NEP Friendly 2024 10 1 0.60 4.04 -0.96 -5.96
2024-11-16 ALB - CZE UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.40 8.94 1.44 -6.06
2024-11-16 AND - MDA UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.44 8.40 0.90 -6.60
2024-11-16 AZE - EST UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.52 7.27 -0.23 -7.73
2024-11-16 BAN - MDV Friendly 2024 10 2 0.39 6.08 1.08 -3.92
2024-11-16 BER - ATG CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.47 7.99 0.49 -7.01
2024-11-16 DOM - DMA CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.66 5.16 -2.34 -9.84
2024-11-16 ETH - TAN African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.38 15.43 2.93 -9.57
2024-11-16 GEO - UKR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.33 10.08 2.58 -4.92
2024-11-16 GER - BIH UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.81 2.84 -4.66 -12.16
2024-11-16 GUI - COD African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.39 15.30 2.80 -9.70
2024-11-16 MNE - ISL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.47 7.93 0.43 -7.07
2024-11-16 NED - HUN UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.71 4.40 -3.10 -10.60
2024-11-16 SWE - SVK UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.54 6.92 -0.58 -8.08
2024-11-16 TUR - WAL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.52 7.22 -0.28 -7.78
2024-11-17 ALG - LBR African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.84 3.94 -8.56 -21.06
2024-11-17 AUT - SVN UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.62 5.74 -1.76 -9.26
2024-11-17 SLV - MSR CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.81 2.82 -4.68 -12.18
2024-11-17 ENG - IRL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.83 2.59 -4.91 -12.41
2024-11-17 FIJ - NCL World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.53 11.83 -0.67 -13.17
2024-11-17 FIN - GRE UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.39 9.15 1.65 -5.85
2024-11-17 ISR - BEL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.14 12.85 5.35 -2.15
2024-11-17 ITA - FRA UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.37 9.46 1.96 -5.54
2024-11-17 LVA - ARM UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.37 9.45 1.95 -5.55
2024-11-17 MKD - FRO UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.74 3.83 -3.67 -11.17
2024-11-17 NOR - KAZ UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.75 3.80 -3.70 -11.20
2024-11-17 PNG - SOL World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.43 14.31 1.81 -10.69
2024-11-17 THA - LAO Friendly 2024 10 1 0.79 2.07 -2.93 -7.93
2024-11-17 TOG - EQG African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.38 15.39 2.89 -9.61
2024-11-18 BUL - BLR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.56 6.61 -0.89 -8.39
2024-11-18 CTA - GAB African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.36 16.09 3.59 -8.91
2024-11-18 COM - MAD African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 X 0.50 12.55 0.05 -12.45
2024-11-18 CRO - POR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.45 8.24 0.74 -6.76
2024-11-18 CUB - SKN CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.40 14.88 2.38 -10.12
2024-11-18 CUW - LCA CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.73 4.08 -3.42 -10.92
2024-11-18 GHA - NIG African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.68 8.00 -4.50 -17.00
2024-11-18 IND - MAS Friendly 2024 10 X 0.52 4.84 -0.16 -5.16
2024-11-18 KVX - LTU UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.63 5.55 -1.95 -9.45
2024-11-18 LBY - BEN African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.40 14.99 2.49 -10.01
2024-11-18 LIE - SMR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.59 6.09 -1.41 -8.91
2024-11-18 LUX - NIR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.42 8.65 1.15 -6.35
2024-11-18 MWI - BFA African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.26 18.44 5.94 -6.56
2024-11-18 MAR - LES African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.93 1.82 -10.68 -23.18
2024-11-18 NZL - SAM World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.81 4.66 -7.84 -20.34
2024-11-18 NGA - RWA African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.80 4.88 -7.62 -20.12
2024-11-18 PAN - CRC CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.51 7.32 -0.18 -7.68
2024-11-18 POL - SCO UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.56 6.62 -0.88 -8.38
2024-11-18 PUR - HAI CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.27 10.92 3.42 -4.08
2024-11-18 ROU - CYP UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.80 3.04 -4.46 -11.96
2024-11-18 SRB - DEN UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.40 9.03 1.53 -5.97
2024-11-18 SIN - TPE Friendly 2024 10 X 0.53 4.74 -0.26 -5.26
2024-11-18 ESP - SUI UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.69 4.61 -2.89 -10.39
2024-11-18 SDN - ANG African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.36 16.00 3.50 -9.00
2024-11-18 TAH - VAN World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.51 12.24 -0.26 -12.76
2024-11-18 TUN - GAM African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.79 5.25 -7.25 -19.75
2024-11-18 USA - JAM CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.71 4.34 -3.16 -10.66
2024-11-19 ALB - UKR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.33 10.04 2.54 -4.96
2024-11-19 ATG - DMA CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.62 5.68 -1.82 -9.32
2024-11-19 ARG - PER World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.81 4.70 -7.80 -20.30
2024-11-19 BHR - AUS World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.29 17.83 5.33 -7.17
2024-11-19 BOL - PAR World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.38 15.60 3.10 -9.40
2024-11-19 BIH - NED UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.16 12.59 5.09 -2.41
2024-11-19 BRA - URU World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.59 10.21 -2.29 -14.79
2024-11-19 CMR - ZIM African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.78 5.44 -7.06 -19.56
2024-11-19 CAN - SUR CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.83 2.60 -4.90 -12.40
2024-11-19 CHI - VEN World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.47 13.29 0.79 -11.71
2024-11-19 CHN - JPN World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.18 20.59 8.09 -4.41
2024-11-19 COL - ECU World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.66 8.62 -3.88 -16.38
2024-11-19 CGO - UGA African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.41 14.72 2.22 -10.28
2024-11-19 CIV - CHA African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.90 2.48 -10.02 -22.52
2024-11-19 CZE - GEO UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.62 5.72 -1.78 -9.28
2024-11-19 COD - ETH African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.82 4.41 -8.09 -20.59
2024-11-19 DOM - BER CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.59 6.11 -1.39 -8.89
2024-11-19 EGY - BOT African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.84 4.01 -8.49 -20.99
2024-11-19 GIB - MDA Friendly 2024 10 2 0.34 6.65 1.65 -3.35
2024-11-19 GNB - MOZ African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 X 0.46 13.61 1.11 -11.39
2024-11-19 GUY - BRB CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 Q 25 X 0.52 11.88 -0.62 -13.12
2024-11-19 HKG - MRI Friendly 2024 10 1 0.59 4.12 -0.88 -5.88
2024-11-19 HUN - GER UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.32 10.14 2.64 -4.86
2024-11-19 IDN - KSA World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.24 18.95 6.45 -6.05
2024-11-19 KEN - NAM African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 X 0.53 11.64 -0.86 -13.36
2024-11-19 KUW - JOR World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.26 18.39 5.89 -6.61
2024-11-19 KGZ - IRN World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.16 21.01 8.51 -3.99
2024-11-19 MLI - SWZ African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.85 3.71 -8.79 -21.29
2024-11-19 MLT - AND UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.50 7.53 0.03 -7.47
2024-11-19 MTN - CPV African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.34 16.62 4.12 -8.38
2024-11-19 MEX - HON CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.78 3.25 -4.25 -11.75
2024-11-19 MNE - TUR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.30 10.54 3.04 -4.46
2024-11-19 MYA - LIB Friendly 2024 10 2 0.34 6.64 1.64 -3.36
2024-11-19 PRK - UZB World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.28 18.01 5.51 -6.99
2024-11-19 OMA - IRQ World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.38 15.54 3.04 -9.46
2024-11-19 PLE - KOR World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.19 20.36 7.86 -4.64
2024-11-19 PHI - BRU Friendly 2024 10 1 0.64 3.62 -1.38 -6.38
2024-11-19 RUS - SYR Friendly 2024 10 1 0.73 2.71 -2.29 -7.29
2024-11-19 SEN - BDI African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.89 2.64 -9.86 -22.36
2024-11-19 SLE - ZAM African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.41 14.65 2.15 -10.35
2024-11-19 SVK - EST UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.79 3.16 -4.34 -11.84
2024-11-19 RSA - SSD African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.86 3.50 -9.00 -21.50
2024-11-19 SWE - AZE UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.80 2.94 -4.56 -12.06
2024-11-19 TJK - AFG Friendly 2024 10 1 0.65 3.50 -1.50 -6.50
2024-11-19 TAN - GUI African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.39 15.31 2.81 -9.69
2024-11-19 UAE - QAT World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.39 15.32 2.82 -9.68
2024-11-19 WAL - ISL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.66 5.05 -2.45 -9.95
2024-11-13 BAN - MDV Friendly 2024 10 2 0.40 6.01 1.01 -3.99
2024-11-13 CHA - SLE African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.31 17.34 4.84 -7.66
2024-11-13 LBR - TOG African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.41 14.85 2.35 -10.15
2024-11-13 NAM - CMR African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.24 18.99 6.49 -6.01
2024-11-13 TJK - NEP Friendly 2024 10 1 0.73 2.69 -2.31 -7.31
2024-11-14 ARM - FRO UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.62 5.65 -1.85 -9.35
2024-11-14 AUS - KSA World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.62 9.44 -3.06 -15.56
2024-11-14 BHR - CHN World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.55 11.15 -1.35 -13.85
2024-11-14 BEL - ITA UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.53 7.04 -0.46 -7.96
2024-11-14 BEN - NGA African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.27 18.19 5.69 -6.81
2024-11-14 BFA - SEN African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.29 17.63 5.13 -7.37
2024-11-14 BDI - MWI African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 X 0.48 13.02 0.52 -11.98
2024-11-14 CRC - PAN CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.47 7.91 0.41 -7.09
2024-11-14 ECU - BOL World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.70 7.44 -5.06 -17.56
2024-11-14 EQG - ALG African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.29 17.69 5.19 -7.31
2024-11-14 FRA - ISR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.89 1.59 -5.91 -13.41
2024-11-14 GRE - ENG UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.23 11.61 4.11 -3.39
2024-11-14 HKG - PHI Friendly 2024 10 X 0.46 5.36 0.36 -4.64
2024-11-14 IDN - JPN World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.12 22.07 9.57 -2.93
2024-11-14 IRQ - JOR World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.55 11.22 -1.28 -13.78
2024-11-14 IRL - FIN UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.52 7.20 -0.30 -7.80
2024-11-14 JAM - USA CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.30 10.56 3.06 -4.44
2024-11-14 KAZ - AUT UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.18 12.36 4.86 -2.64
2024-11-14 KUW - KOR World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.14 21.62 9.12 -3.38
2024-11-14 LES - CTA African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.41 14.66 2.16 -10.34
2024-11-14 MAD - TUN African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.24 18.97 6.47 -6.03
2024-11-14 MAS - LAO Friendly 2024 10 1 0.70 2.97 -2.03 -7.03
2024-11-14 MLT - LIE Friendly 2024 10 1 0.64 3.63 -1.37 -6.37
2024-11-14 MSR - VIN CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.47 7.94 0.44 -7.06
2024-11-14 NIG - SDN African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.44 13.97 1.47 -11.03
2024-11-14 PRK - IRN World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.15 21.26 8.76 -3.74
2024-11-14 MKD - LVA UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.74 3.96 -3.54 -11.04
2024-11-14 OMA - PLE World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.58 10.42 -2.08 -14.58
2024-11-14 PNG - FIJ World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.42 14.38 1.88 -10.62
2024-11-14 PAR - ARG World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.15 21.14 8.64 -3.86
2024-11-14 QAT - UZB World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.55 11.32 -1.18 -13.68
2024-11-14 RWA - LBY African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 X 0.48 13.00 0.50 -12.00
2024-11-14 SIN - MYA Friendly 2024 10 X 0.52 4.83 -0.17 -5.17
2024-11-14 SVN - NOR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.49 7.70 0.20 -7.30
2024-11-14 SOL - NCL World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.53 11.78 -0.72 -13.22
2024-11-14 SSD - CGO African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.32 17.06 4.56 -7.94
2024-11-14 SKN - CUB CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.58 10.62 -1.88 -14.38
2024-11-14 THA - LIB Friendly 2024 10 1 0.56 4.39 -0.61 -5.61
2024-11-14 UAE - KGZ World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.64 8.90 -3.60 -16.10
2024-11-14 VEN - BRA World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.24 19.03 6.53 -5.97
2024-11-15 ANG - GHA African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 X 0.46 13.46 0.96 -11.54
2024-11-15 BRB - GUY CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.45 13.78 1.28 -11.22
2024-11-15 BOT - MTN African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.42 14.40 1.90 -10.60
2024-11-15 CPV - EGY African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.33 16.77 4.27 -8.23
2024-11-15 CYP - LTU UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.54 6.85 -0.65 -8.15
2024-11-15 DEN - ESP UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.30 10.57 3.07 -4.43
2024-11-15 SWZ - GNB African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.36 16.02 3.52 -8.98
2024-11-15 GAB - MAR African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.18 20.39 7.89 -4.61
2024-11-15 GAM - COM African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.44 13.94 1.44 -11.06
2024-11-15 HON - MEX CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.22 11.68 4.18 -3.32
2024-11-15 LUX - BUL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.47 7.97 0.47 -7.03
2024-11-15 MOZ - MLI African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.30 17.60 5.10 -7.40
2024-11-15 NZL - VAN World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.72 7.07 -5.43 -17.93
2024-11-15 NIR - BLR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.61 5.89 -1.61 -9.11
2024-11-15 PER - CHI World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.54 11.57 -0.93 -13.43
2024-11-15 POR - POL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.71 4.40 -3.10 -10.60
2024-11-15 PUR - ARU CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.65 5.29 -2.21 -9.71
2024-11-15 ROU - KVX UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.74 3.94 -3.56 -11.06
2024-11-15 RUS - BRU Friendly 2024 10 1 0.91 0.88 -4.12 -9.12
2024-11-15 SAM - TAH World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.39 15.30 2.80 -9.70
2024-11-15 SMR - GIB UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.39 9.08 1.58 -5.92
2024-11-15 SCO - CRO UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.28 10.73 3.23 -4.27
2024-11-15 LCA - GRN CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.55 6.77 -0.73 -8.23
2024-11-15 SUR - CAN CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.18 12.36 4.86 -2.64
2024-11-15 SUI - SRB UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.61 5.80 -1.70 -9.20
2024-11-15 UGA - RSA African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.36 15.92 3.42 -9.08
2024-11-15 URU - COL World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.46 13.55 1.05 -11.45
2024-11-15 ZAM - CIV African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.28 17.92 5.42 -7.08
2024-11-15 ZIM - KEN African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 X 0.47 13.33 0.83 -11.67
2024-11-16 AFG - NEP Friendly 2024 10 1 0.60 4.04 -0.96 -5.96
2024-11-16 ALB - CZE UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.40 8.94 1.44 -6.06
2024-11-16 AND - MDA UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.44 8.40 0.90 -6.60
2024-11-16 AZE - EST UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.52 7.27 -0.23 -7.73
2024-11-16 BAN - MDV Friendly 2024 10 2 0.39 6.08 1.08 -3.92
2024-11-16 BER - ATG CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.47 7.99 0.49 -7.01
2024-11-16 DOM - DMA CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.66 5.16 -2.34 -9.84
2024-11-16 ETH - TAN African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.38 15.43 2.93 -9.57
2024-11-16 GEO - UKR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.33 10.08 2.58 -4.92
2024-11-16 GER - BIH UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.81 2.84 -4.66 -12.16
2024-11-16 GUI - COD African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.39 15.30 2.80 -9.70
2024-11-16 MNE - ISL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.47 7.93 0.43 -7.07
2024-11-16 NED - HUN UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.71 4.40 -3.10 -10.60
2024-11-16 SWE - SVK UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.54 6.92 -0.58 -8.08
2024-11-16 TUR - WAL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.52 7.22 -0.28 -7.78
2024-11-17 ALG - LBR African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.84 3.94 -8.56 -21.06
2024-11-17 AUT - SVN UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.62 5.74 -1.76 -9.26
2024-11-17 SLV - MSR CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.81 2.82 -4.68 -12.18
2024-11-17 ENG - IRL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.83 2.59 -4.91 -12.41
2024-11-17 FIJ - NCL World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.53 11.83 -0.67 -13.17
2024-11-17 FIN - GRE UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.39 9.15 1.65 -5.85
2024-11-17 ISR - BEL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.14 12.85 5.35 -2.15
2024-11-17 ITA - FRA UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.37 9.46 1.96 -5.54
2024-11-17 LVA - ARM UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.37 9.45 1.95 -5.55
2024-11-17 MKD - FRO UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.74 3.83 -3.67 -11.17
2024-11-17 NOR - KAZ UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.75 3.80 -3.70 -11.20
2024-11-17 PNG - SOL World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.43 14.31 1.81 -10.69
2024-11-17 THA - LAO Friendly 2024 10 1 0.79 2.07 -2.93 -7.93
2024-11-17 TOG - EQG African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.38 15.39 2.89 -9.61
2024-11-18 BUL - BLR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.56 6.61 -0.89 -8.39
2024-11-18 CTA - GAB African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.36 16.09 3.59 -8.91
2024-11-18 COM - MAD African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 X 0.50 12.55 0.05 -12.45
2024-11-18 CRO - POR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.45 8.24 0.74 -6.76
2024-11-18 CUB - SKN CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.40 14.88 2.38 -10.12
2024-11-18 CUW - LCA CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.73 4.08 -3.42 -10.92
2024-11-18 GHA - NIG African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.68 8.00 -4.50 -17.00
2024-11-18 IND - MAS Friendly 2024 10 X 0.52 4.84 -0.16 -5.16
2024-11-18 KVX - LTU UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.63 5.55 -1.95 -9.45
2024-11-18 LBY - BEN African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.40 14.99 2.49 -10.01
2024-11-18 LIE - SMR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.59 6.09 -1.41 -8.91
2024-11-18 LUX - NIR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.42 8.65 1.15 -6.35
2024-11-18 MWI - BFA African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.26 18.44 5.94 -6.56
2024-11-18 MAR - LES African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.93 1.82 -10.68 -23.18
2024-11-18 NZL - SAM World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.81 4.66 -7.84 -20.34
2024-11-18 NGA - RWA African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.80 4.88 -7.62 -20.12
2024-11-18 PAN - CRC CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.51 7.32 -0.18 -7.68
2024-11-18 POL - SCO UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.56 6.62 -0.88 -8.38
2024-11-18 PUR - HAI CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.27 10.92 3.42 -4.08
2024-11-18 ROU - CYP UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.80 3.04 -4.46 -11.96
2024-11-18 SRB - DEN UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.40 9.03 1.53 -5.97
2024-11-18 SIN - TPE Friendly 2024 10 X 0.53 4.74 -0.26 -5.26
2024-11-18 ESP - SUI UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.69 4.61 -2.89 -10.39
2024-11-18 SDN - ANG African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.36 16.00 3.50 -9.00
2024-11-18 TAH - VAN World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.51 12.24 -0.26 -12.76
2024-11-18 TUN - GAM African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.79 5.25 -7.25 -19.75
2024-11-18 USA - JAM CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.71 4.34 -3.16 -10.66
2024-11-19 ALB - UKR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.33 10.04 2.54 -4.96
2024-11-19 ATG - DMA CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.62 5.68 -1.82 -9.32
2024-11-19 ARG - PER World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.81 4.70 -7.80 -20.30
2024-11-19 BHR - AUS World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.29 17.83 5.33 -7.17
2024-11-19 BOL - PAR World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.38 15.60 3.10 -9.40
2024-11-19 BIH - NED UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.16 12.59 5.09 -2.41
2024-11-19 BRA - URU World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.59 10.21 -2.29 -14.79
2024-11-19 CMR - ZIM African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.78 5.44 -7.06 -19.56
2024-11-19 CAN - SUR CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.83 2.60 -4.90 -12.40
2024-11-19 CHI - VEN World Cup 2026 Q 25 X 0.47 13.29 0.79 -11.71
2024-11-19 CHN - JPN World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.18 20.59 8.09 -4.41
2024-11-19 COL - ECU World Cup 2026 Q 25 1 0.66 8.62 -3.88 -16.38
2024-11-19 CGO - UGA African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.41 14.72 2.22 -10.28
2024-11-19 CIV - CHA African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.90 2.48 -10.02 -22.52
2024-11-19 CZE - GEO UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.62 5.72 -1.78 -9.28
2024-11-19 COD - ETH African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.82 4.41 -8.09 -20.59
2024-11-19 DOM - BER CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.59 6.11 -1.39 -8.89
2024-11-19 EGY - BOT African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.84 4.01 -8.49 -20.99
2024-11-19 GIB - MDA Friendly 2024 10 2 0.34 6.65 1.65 -3.35
2024-11-19 GNB - MOZ African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 X 0.46 13.61 1.11 -11.39
2024-11-19 GUY - BRB CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 Q 25 X 0.52 11.88 -0.62 -13.12
2024-11-19 HKG - MRI Friendly 2024 10 1 0.59 4.12 -0.88 -5.88
2024-11-19 HUN - GER UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.32 10.14 2.64 -4.86
2024-11-19 IDN - KSA World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.24 18.95 6.45 -6.05
2024-11-19 KEN - NAM African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 X 0.53 11.64 -0.86 -13.36
2024-11-19 KUW - JOR World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.26 18.39 5.89 -6.61
2024-11-19 KGZ - IRN World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.16 21.01 8.51 -3.99
2024-11-19 MLI - SWZ African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.85 3.71 -8.79 -21.29
2024-11-19 MLT - AND UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.50 7.53 0.03 -7.47
2024-11-19 MTN - CPV African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.34 16.62 4.12 -8.38
2024-11-19 MEX - HON CONCACAF Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.78 3.25 -4.25 -11.75
2024-11-19 MNE - TUR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.30 10.54 3.04 -4.46
2024-11-19 MYA - LIB Friendly 2024 10 2 0.34 6.64 1.64 -3.36
2024-11-19 PRK - UZB World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.28 18.01 5.51 -6.99
2024-11-19 OMA - IRQ World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.38 15.54 3.04 -9.46
2024-11-19 PLE - KOR World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.19 20.36 7.86 -4.64
2024-11-19 PHI - BRU Friendly 2024 10 1 0.64 3.62 -1.38 -6.38
2024-11-19 RUS - SYR Friendly 2024 10 1 0.73 2.71 -2.29 -7.29
2024-11-19 SEN - BDI African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.89 2.64 -9.86 -22.36
2024-11-19 SLE - ZAM African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.41 14.65 2.15 -10.35
2024-11-19 SVK - EST UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.79 3.16 -4.34 -11.84
2024-11-19 RSA - SSD African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 1 0.86 3.50 -9.00 -21.50
2024-11-19 SWE - AZE UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.80 2.94 -4.56 -12.06
2024-11-19 TJK - AFG Friendly 2024 10 1 0.65 3.50 -1.50 -6.50
2024-11-19 TAN - GUI African Nat Cup 2025 Q 25 2 0.39 15.31 2.81 -9.69
2024-11-19 UAE - QAT World Cup 2026 Q 25 2 0.39 15.32 2.82 -9.68
2024-11-19 WAL - ISL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.66 5.05 -2.45 -9.95
Concacaf Nations League Quarter Finals are worth 25, not 15.
ReplyDeleteHi Anonymous, last time indeed Ed had predicted 25, but I stuck with 15 and was proven right with 15 points being correct in November 2023 for the last tournament quarter finals, but if you have information that that has changed for these matches then please share it. To my current knowledge only the semi finals and beyond get an importance of 25 points.
ReplyDeleteThis is absolutely correct, but I'm expecting the same (i=15) for the play-in round that is considered fully part of the Concacaf Nations League
DeleteYes, you might be right, it depends whether this is seen as part of CONCACAF Gold Cup qualification or not. I was assuming it would be, but indeed it might not be.
DeleteHi Homer,
ReplyDeleteI always loved looking at the 10000 simulations posts. Is there any chance you'll bring them back or was it calculated by some software that you don't have access to?
Kind regards and thank you for continuing the blog
Hi Henning, I will get to the simulations, and in fact I have been working on the software for it for a couple of weeks already (when time permits, I also have a day job). With the matches coming up this week and next I expect that it will still take me a little while, maybe until January to get it all organized and ready for the World Cup qualifying for example. I do have all Ed’s material so I will refer to that, but I have also worked with my own data and software for more than 30 years also. I don’t have a personal copy of Excel that Ed used, so running his software isn’t an option, but I should be able make use of it somehow.
ReplyDeleteDue to the mechanics of the groupings the UEFA draw is going to be heavily weighted with Nations League Relegation/Promotion playoff teams in Pots 2-4 being steered into groups A-F and the non promotion/relegation teams in the same pots being steered towards groups G-L.
ReplyDeleteThis could result in 4 team groups being slightly stronger on average than the 5 team groups.