Hi everyone, hope you've all had a good few days watching some exciting matches. Below is by my reckoning how things should look on Thursday, although there's some doubt whether the CONCACAF Nations League play-ins will be calculated with an importance of 15 or 25 depending on whether they're seen as CONCACAF Gold Cup qualifying matches. I've gone with 25 for now, but it could indeed just be 15. It should only matter for Barbados, Cuba, Guyana and St. Kitts and Nevis as the other two legs involved non-FIFA affiliated nations.
Quite a few changes in the top 20. Big losers: Colombia (L-L) down 2 places, Belgium (L-L) down 2 places and Argentina (L-W) just about keeping their top spot with their nearest challengers France drawing at home to Israel before recovering to beat Italy away. Mexico (L-W) and Switzerland (D-L) both drop 3 places and are now at risk of dropping out of the top 20. Winners are Uruguay (W-D) up 3 places and Senegal (W-W) up 3 places.
Interesting is that it is very close between the top 3, with a gap separating them from England who look solid in 4th place. Then there's 5 teams vying for places 5-9, and after that there's another 5 teams separated by just 15 points.
I for one am looking forward to the UEFA Nations League draw on Friday 22 November, and especially (and finally!) the 2026 World Cup Qualifying for UEFA on 13 December! For the first time ever (and I think probably the last time), we'll have placeholders for nations yet to be decided. Will we see some tactical losses as a result? Given some of the results this week there'll certainly be some teams wanting to avoid the likes of Norway, Romania, Turkey and maybe even Wales after they topped their group. Even teams like Greece have shown that they can mix it with the best.
2 France 1859.78 0 -0.06
3 Spain 1853.27 0 8.95
4 England 1813.81 0 5.98
5 Brazil 1775.85 0 -8.52
6 Portugal 1756.12 1 3.44
7 Netherlands 1747.55 1 -0.69
8 Belgium 1740.62 -2 -20.65
9 Italy 1731.51 0 2.11
10 Germany 1703.79 1 0.20
11 Uruguay 1695.91 3 15.55
12 Colombia 1694.45 -2 -29.93
13 Croatia 1691.59 -1 -9.78
14 Morocco 1688.18 -1 6.60
15 Japan 1652.79 0 7.69
16 United States 1639.75 2 8.78
17 Senegal 1637.25 3 10.12
18 Iran 1635.31 1 7.73
19 Mexico 1632.54 -3 -8.13
20 Switzerland 1625.16 -3 -6.22
21 Denmark 1611.49 0 -5.85
22 Austria 1589.84 1 0.67
23 South Korea 1585.45 -1 -4.48
24 Ecuador 1560.13 3 23.81
25 Ukraine 1554.94 0 2.57
26 Australia 1544.15 -2 -8.63
27 Sweden 1540.20 1 9.79
28 Türkiye 1537.24 -2 -10.91
29 Wales 1534.39 0 5.43
30 Hungary 1517.57 2 -1.76
31 Serbia 1514.28 2 3.12
32 Egypt 1513.48 -2 -12.76
33 Canada 1512.51 2 5.24
34 Russia 1512.32 0 3.60
35 Poland 1510.62 -4 -12.57
36 Panama 1500.29 3 6.49
37 Algeria 1495.85 0 -1.09
38 Greece 1489.88 4 2.45
39 Peru 1488.42 -1 -5.81
40 Romania 1486.77 2 -0.45
41 Slovakia 1486.19 0 -3.69
42 Czechia 1484.88 3 4.49
43 Norway 1484.44 5 10.94
44 Nigeria 1482.23 -8 -21.06
45 Scotland 1480.24 6 18.90
46 Côte d'Ivoire 1478.47 -6 -15.10
47 Venezuela 1475.71 -3 -6.76
48 Qatar 1474.60 -2 -4.00
49 Cameroon 1471.49 0 -0.63
50 Chile 1469.44 3 14.22
51 Mali 1466.10 3 11.26
52 Tunisia 1464.42 -5 -14.10
53 Costa Rica 1459.09 -3 -6.49
54 Paraguay 1458.26 1 17.48
55 Slovenia 1454.25 -3 -5.34
56 Iraq 1442.86 0 8.46
57 South Africa 1428.87 3 12.89
58 Uzbekistan 1424.93 0 -4.33
59 Saudi Arabia 1406.56 0 -16.11
60 Ireland 1400.22 3 4.61
61 Jamaica 1396.58 0 -8.78
62 Democratic Republic of Congo 1395.77 -5 -35.53
63 United Arab Emirates 1385.57 5 24.23
64 Jordan 1375.91 0 -4.84
65 Albania 1375.57 0 -3.71
66 Burkina Faso 1373.76 -4 -26.04
67 North Macedonia 1368.96 1 7.95
68 Georgia 1362.21 -1 -3.35
69 Finland 1361.53 -3 -13.05
70 Iceland 1355.10 0 1.92
71 Northern Ireland 1349.58 0 4.52
72 Cape Verde Islands 1328.51 0 -12.36
73 Montenegro 1326.76 2 3.56
74 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1326.69 0 2.25
75 Israel 1322.25 6 18.60
76 Honduras 1320.78 1 8.13
77 Ghana 1320.52 -4 -18.22
78 Guinea 1311.88 0 -0.57
79 Bolivia 1308.58 -1 -3.78
80 Oman 1306.67 0 0.67
81 Bahrain 1305.52 -5 -8.28
82 Bulgaria 1301.04 2 5.93
83 El Salvador 1300.81 0 2.82
84 Gabon 1297.87 1 3.76
85 Angola 1296.48 -3 -2.27
86 Haiti 1287.75 0 4.08
87 Zambia 1279.24 7 27.40
88 Uganda 1270.42 -1 0.63
89 New Zealand 1269.83 2 11.73
90 China 1266.38 2 9.09
91 Curaçao 1264.78 -1 3.91
92 Luxembourg 1256.42 -3 -5.66
92 Equatorial Guinea 1256.20 -4 -10.49
94 Benin 1250.98 1 0.02
95 Syria 1249.47 -2 -2.71
96 Mozambique 1232.70 2 3.70
97 Thailand 1228.24 -1 -3.51
98 Kosovo 1227.22 2 9.01
99 Belarus 1226.31 -2 -4.79
100 Armenia 1219.15 -1 -3.59
101 Palestine 1215.87 -1 -2.56
102 Trinidad and Tobago 1214.81 0 0.00
103 Comoros 1208.99 5 23.01
104 Tajikistan 1203.08 1 6.10
105 Guatemala 1201.34 0 0.00
106 Tanzania 1199.33 6 25.49
107 Kyrgyzstan 1194.19 -4 -12.89
108 Kenya 1189.65 -2 -5.71
109 Mauritania 1183.15 5 14.72
110 Kazakhstan 1180.18 -3 -6.27
111 Namibia 1179.27 2 5.46
112 Lebanon 1171.43 3 3.94
113 Sudan 1165.41 -3 -10.79
114 North Korea 1164.41 -3 -10.74
115 Madagascar 1162.02 -6 -17.98
116 Vietnam 1161.11 0 0.00
117 Azerbaijan 1158.70 1 -3.10
118 Libya 1158.03 4 9.33
119 Togo 1152.18 4 4.28
120 Guinea-Bissau 1151.72 -4 -14.61
121 Zimbabwe 1151.06 -4 -11.43
122 Niger 1145.96 9 31.23
123 Estonia 1142.53 1 -2.99
124 Rwanda 1136.06 2 6.02
125 Indonesia 1135.11 5 16.23
126 Gambia 1134.69 2 9.07
127 India 1133.62 -2 -0.16
128 Congo 1132.65 -8 -26.77
129 Sierra Leone 1132.06 -8 -17.76
130 Cyprus 1131.25 -3 3.74
131 Malawi 1129.31 3 18.15
132 Malaysia 1117.05 1 3.13
133 Nicaragua 1114.28 0 0.00
134 Kuwait 1109.16 1 2.74
135 Central African Republic 1102.23 -6 -23.03
136 Surinam 1100.05 0 -5.24
137 Botswana 1098.85 3 10.40
138 Faroe Islands 1096.88 0 5.36
139 Burundi 1087.26 0 -2.23
140 Latvia 1084.11 -3 -9.71
141 Lithuania 1070.06 0 -12.30
142 Dominican Republic 1068.57 0 -3.31
143 Turkmenistan 1065.42 0 0.00
144 St. Kitts and Nevis 1064.99 -1 -4.26
145 Liberia 1063.04 4 14.18
146 Ethiopia 1059.94 2 10.66
147 Fiji 1049.15 -1 -2.25
148 Solomon Islands 1048.75 -1 -2.24
149 Philippines 1047.73 -4 -5.36
150 Lesotho 1046.76 2 13.96
151 Moldova 1045.59 -1 4.76
152 New Caledonia 1034.43 3 13.59
153 Tahiti 1031.47 6 21.94
154 Guyana 1030.60 7 21.91
155 Afghanistan 1025.00 -4 -9.37
156 Hong Kong 1024.58 2 9.48
157 Puerto Rico 1022.83 -4 1.21
158 Yemen 1017.84 -4 -3.41
159 Eswatini 1015.25 1 6.06
160 Antigua and Barbuda 1011.18 -4 -9.40
161 Singapore 1007.83 1 -0.43
162 Maldives 1001.39 1 -2.09
163 Vanuatu 996.21 -6 -19.31
164 Cuba 994.43 2 4.26
165 Taiwan 990.92 3 5.26
166 Bermuda 987.98 1 1.46
167 St. Lucia 985.72 -3 -12.14
168 Malta 983.95 1 3.45
169 Myanmar 982.83 -4 -8.16
170 South Sudan 973.55 2 17.88
171 Andorra 971.54 -1 -6.42
172 Papua New Guinea 963.22 -1 -9.10
173 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 961.92 1 7.06
174 Grenada 955.44 1 8.23
175 Nepal 939.20 1 3.27
176 Chad 935.41 1 2.02
177 Barbados 933.29 -4 -21.91
178 Belize 925.02 0 0.00
179 Mauritius 923.46 -1 -4.12
180 Cambodia 921.20 0 0.00
181 Dominica 914.79 2 11.25
182 Montserrat 914.25 -2 -9.88
183 Bhutan 904.06 0 0.00
184 Brunei 899.87 0 -0.88
185 Bangladesh 898.81 0 2.09
186 Laos 889.54 1 -0.08
187 Mongolia 883.57 0 0.00
188 American Samoa 883.17 0 0.00
189 São Tomé and Príncipe 878.09 0 0.00
190 Cook Islands 877.53 0 0.00
191 Djibouti 877.37 1 2.24
192 Samoa 876.41 -6 -14.36
193 Macao 871.52 0 0.00
194 Cayman Islands 866.71 0 0.00
195 Aruba 858.00 0 -5.29
196 Eritrea 855.56 0 0.00
197 Timor Leste 850.83 0 0.00
198 Gibraltar 848.58 0 0.26
199 Pakistan 842.59 0 0.00
200 Tonga 835.64 0 0.00
201 Sri Lanka 832.80 3 3.41
202 Seychelles 831.19 0 0.00
203 Somalia 829.81 0 0.00
204 Guam 821.91 0 0.00
205 Liechtenstein 821.71 -4 -12.44
206 Bahamas 818.58 0 0.00
207 Turks and Caicos Islands 803.98 0 0.00
208 British Virgin Islands 780.30 0 0.00
209 US Virgin Islands 779.71 0 0.00
210 Anguilla 769.31 0 0.00
211 San Marino 747.42 0 10.39
Regarding the uefa world cup 2026 qualifiers draw, here are my insights regarding the constraints and options:
ReplyDelete1 QF winners on 4 QF losers on 5 England, switzerland on 5
2 Ukraine Turkey Hungary Serbia Greece Slovakia on 4 Sweden Wales Poland Romania Czech Norway on 5 Belgium Austria on 4
3 Scotland Slovenia Ireland Georgia Iceland on 4 One spot available on 4, 6 spots on 5 - Albania, North Maccedonia, Finland, North Ireland, Montenegro, Bosnia, Iarael
4 Bulgaria Luxemburg Kosovo Armenia Latvia on 4 One spot available on 4, 6 spots on 5 - Belarus Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Estonia Cyprus Faroe islands Lithuania
5 Malta Gibraltar on 5 with England and switzerland Moldova Andorra Liechtenstein San marino on other 5 groups