So I thought with the 2026 World Cup UEFA qualifying draw scheduled for next week that it would be interesting to look at points and position changes comparing the last ranking of 2023 to the expected 2024 end of year ranking. What does it tell us in terms about teams that have gained and lost points, and therefore which are the teams to draw, and which are the teams to avoid for the top seeded teams.
The first thing to notice is Spain's rise. Of course, their 2023 ranking was somewhat low. They're one of the biggest gainers in terms on points, only beaten by Angola that gained more points (128 v 120).
Top 10 points gainers:
Pos Country +/- Prv +/-
85 Angola 128.43 115 30
3 Spain 120.63 8 5
64 Jordan 103.28 87 23
58 Uzbekistan 79.67 68 10
56 Iraq 76.88 63 7
124 Indonesia 74.29 146 22
10 Germany 72.57 16 6
147 Fiji 72.56 168 21
89 New Zealand 72.36 104 15
57 South Africa 71.79 66 9
3 Spain 120.63 8 5
64 Jordan 103.28 87 23
58 Uzbekistan 79.67 68 10
56 Iraq 76.88 63 7
124 Indonesia 74.29 146 22
10 Germany 72.57 16 6
147 Fiji 72.56 168 21
89 New Zealand 72.36 104 15
57 South Africa 71.79 66 9
Bottom 10 biggest losers (points):
Pos Country +/- Prv +/-
115 Vietnam -73.17 94 -21
127 India -67.18 102 -25
77 Ghana -63.67 61 -16
148 Solomon Islands -62.73 132 -16
161 Antigua and Barbuda -61.69 142 -19
52 Tunisia -58.81 28 -24
8 Belgium -57.84 4 -4
128 Congo -47.15 112 -16
120 Guinea-Bissau -46.11 103 -17
69 Finland -39.78 59 -10
Top 10 position gainers:
Pos Country +/- Prv +/-
85 Angola 128.43 115 30
64 Jordan 103.28 87 23
124 Indonesia 74.29 146 22
147 Fiji 72.56 168 21
31 Canada 62.20 48 17
97 Thailand 54.43 113 16
103 Comoros 52.54 119 16
89 New Zealand 72.36 104 15
96 Mozambique 51.99 111 15
106 Tanzania 44.14 120 14
64 Jordan 103.28 87 23
124 Indonesia 74.29 146 22
147 Fiji 72.56 168 21
31 Canada 62.20 48 17
97 Thailand 54.43 113 16
103 Comoros 52.54 119 16
89 New Zealand 72.36 104 15
96 Mozambique 51.99 111 15
106 Tanzania 44.14 120 14
Bottom 10 biggest losers (position):
Pos Country +/- Prv +/-
127 India -67.18 102 -25
52 Tunisia -58.81 28 -24
115 Vietnam -73.17 94 -21
161 Antigua and Barbuda -61.69 142 -19
120 Guinea-Bissau -46.11 103 -17
128 Congo -47.15 112 -16
148 Solomon Islands -62.73 132 -16
77 Ghana -63.67 61 -16
90 China -33.11 79 -11
165 Taiwan -33.36 154 -11
So that certainly makes Angola the team of the year, but probably the biggest smiles are for Spain and Germany who look like their in a strong position not only for the 2026 World Cup UEFA qualifiers but also for 2024/2025 Nations League. Looking over their shoulders will be Belgium who were the #1 team in February 2022 and have now dropped to #8 spot. Others to note are the US and Mexico, both down 4 positions just 1.5 years away from the start of the 2026 World Cup on home soil, while the other hosts Canada are rising fast, up 17 positions to #31. So Germany and Spain will be the teams to avoid for pot 2 teams as they look certain to top their groups. In terms of pot 2 teams, Türkiye and Wales will be the first teams pot 1 teams will hope to avoid based on points gained. Others include Greece, Romania and Slovakia.
In terms of the surprise teams of the year I would highlight Jordan and Comoros both of whom seem to be playing above their status at present.
Anyway, here's the complete list showing the 2024/2023 points, the difference in points, the position in 2023 ("Prv") and the difference in ranking.
Pos Country 2024 2023 +/- Prv +/-
1 Argentina 1867.25 1855.20 12.05 1 0
2 France 1859.78 1845.44 14.34 2 0
3 Spain 1853.27 1732.64 120.63 8 5
4 England 1813.81 1800.05 13.76 3 -1
5 Brazil 1775.85 1784.09 -8.24 5 0
6 Portugal 1756.12 1745.06 11.06 6 0
7 Netherlands 1747.55 1745.48 2.07 6 -1
8 Belgium 1740.62 1798.46 -57.84 4 -4
9 Italy 1731.51 1718.82 12.69 9 0
10 Germany 1703.79 1631.22 72.57 16 6
11 Uruguay 1695.91 1666.00 29.91 11 0
12 Colombia 1694.45 1655.29 39.16 14 2
13 Croatia 1691.59 1717.57 -25.98 10 -3
14 Morocco 1688.18 1661.69 26.49 13 -1
15 Japan 1652.79 1620.19 32.60 17 2
16 United States 1645.48 1665.27 -19.79 12 -4
17 Senegal 1637.25 1594.31 42.94 20 3
18 Iran 1635.31 1565.08 70.23 21 3
19 Mexico 1627.40 1652.70 -25.30 15 -4
20 Switzerland 1625.16 1613.44 11.72 18 -2
21 Denmark 1611.49 1601.31 10.18 19 -2
22 Austria 1589.84 1546.10 43.74 24 2
23 South Korea 1585.45 1550.65 34.80 23 0
24 Ecuador 1560.13 1519.20 40.93 32 8
25 Ukraine 1554.94 1553.35 1.59 22 -3
26 Australia 1544.15 1539.22 4.93 25 -1
27 Sweden 1540.20 1530.19 10.01 26 -1
28 Türkiye 1537.24 1505.28 31.96 37 9
29 Wales 1534.39 1521.88 12.51 29 0
30 Hungary 1517.57 1525.13 -7.56 27 -3
31 Canada 1515.96 1453.76 62.20 48 17
32 Serbia 1514.28 1517.43 -3.15 34 2
33 Egypt 1513.48 1518.91 -5.43 33 0
34 Russia 1512.32 1498.84 13.48 38 4
35 Poland 1510.62 1520.24 -9.62 30 -5
36 Panama 1504.38 1475.62 28.76 41 5
37 Algeria 1495.85 1520.26 -24.41 30 -7
38 Romania 1494.20 1472.73 21.47 43 5
39 Greece 1489.88 1453.95 35.93 47 8
40 Peru 1488.42 1512.68 -24.26 35 -5
41 Slovakia 1486.19 1465.73 20.46 45 4
42 Czechia 1484.88 1494.04 -9.16 39 -3
43 Norway 1484.44 1472.36 12.08 44 1
44 Nigeria 1482.23 1474.44 7.79 42 -2
45 Scotland 1480.24 1506.89 -26.65 36 -9
46 Côte d'Ivoire 1478.47 1447.65 30.82 49 3
47 Venezuela 1475.71 1447.20 28.51 50 3
48 Qatar 1474.60 1407.30 67.30 58 10
49 Cameroon 1471.49 1463.06 8.43 46 -3
50 Chile 1469.44 1489.82 -20.38 40 -10
51 Mali 1466.10 1445.60 20.50 51 0
52 Tunisia 1464.42 1523.23 -58.81 28 -24
53 Paraguay 1458.26 1430.73 27.53 53 0
54 Costa Rica 1454.99 1437.57 17.42 52 -2
55 Slovenia 1454.25 1427.84 26.41 54 -1
56 Iraq 1442.86 1365.98 76.88 63 7
57 South Africa 1428.87 1357.08 71.79 66 9
58 Uzbekistan 1424.93 1345.26 79.67 68 10
59 Saudi Arabia 1406.56 1421.06 -14.50 56 -3
60 Ireland 1400.22 1399.60 0.62 60 0
61 Democratic Republic of Congo 1395.77 1356.67 39.10 67 6
62 Jamaica 1390.85 1421.54 -30.69 55 -7
63 United Arab Emirates 1385.57 1364.46 21.11 64 1
64 Jordan 1375.91 1272.63 103.28 87 23
65 Albania 1375.57 1382.69 -7.12 62 -3
66 Burkina Faso 1373.76 1411.01 -37.25 57 -9
67 North Macedonia 1368.96 1362.17 6.79 65 -2
68 Georgia 1362.21 1312.45 49.76 77 9
69 Finland 1361.53 1401.31 -39.78 59 -10
70 Iceland 1355.10 1338.39 16.71 71 1
71 Northern Ireland 1349.58 1333.17 16.41 72 1
72 Cape Verde Islands 1328.51 1329.80 -1.29 73 1
73 Montenegro 1326.76 1342.64 -15.88 70 -3
74 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1326.69 1343.32 -16.63 69 -5
75 Honduras 1325.93 1313.80 12.13 76 1
76 Israel 1322.25 1323.43 -1.18 75 -1
77 Ghana 1320.52 1384.19 -63.67 61 -16
78 Guinea 1311.88 1290.01 21.87 80 2
79 Bolivia 1308.58 1284.55 24.03 85 6
80 Oman 1307.90 1324.89 -16.99 74 -6
81 Bahrain 1305.52 1277.29 28.23 86 5
82 Bulgaria 1301.04 1289.90 11.14 81 -1
83 El Salvador 1300.81 1306.14 -5.33 78 -5
84 Gabon 1297.87 1289.52 8.35 82 -2
85 Angola 1296.48 1168.05 128.43 115 30
86 Haiti 1287.75 1262.50 25.25 89 3
87 Zambia 1279.24 1284.55 -5.31 84 -3
88 Uganda 1270.42 1245.08 25.34 91 3
89 New Zealand 1269.83 1197.47 72.36 104 15
90 China 1266.38 1299.49 -33.11 79 -11
91 Curaçao 1264.78 1262.48 2.30 89 -2
92 Equatorial Guinea 1256.20 1268.43 -12.23 88 -4
92 Luxembourg 1256.42 1285.41 -28.99 83 -9
94 Syria 1251.31 1245.27 6.04 91 -3
95 Benin 1250.98 1225.10 25.88 97 2
96 Mozambique 1232.70 1180.71 51.99 111 15
97 Thailand 1231.18 1176.75 54.43 113 16
98 Belarus 1226.31 1232.80 -6.49 95 -3
99 Kosovo 1219.82 1202.77 17.05 101 2
100 Armenia 1219.15 1237.15 -18.00 93 -7
101 Palestine 1215.87 1217.60 -1.73 99 -2
102 Trinidad and Tobago 1214.81 1228.05 -13.24 96 -6
103 Comoros 1208.99 1156.45 52.54 119 16
104 Tajikistan 1203.08 1195.07 8.01 105 1
105 Guatemala 1201.34 1189.98 11.36 108 3
106 Tanzania 1199.33 1155.19 44.14 120 14
107 Kyrgyzstan 1194.19 1224.14 -29.95 98 -9
108 Kenya 1189.65 1181.92 7.73 110 2
109 Mauritania 1183.15 1195.25 -12.10 105 -4
110 Kazakhstan 1180.18 1215.16 -34.98 100 -10
111 Namibia 1179.27 1168.38 10.89 115 4
112 Lebanon 1170.33 1192.58 -22.25 107 -5
113 North Korea 1166.70 1168.12 -1.42 115 2
114 Sudan 1165.41 1128.74 36.67 128 14
115 Madagascar 1162.02 1187.63 -25.61 109 -6
115 Vietnam 1162.41 1235.58 -73.17 94 -21
117 Azerbaijan 1158.70 1174.22 -15.52 114 -3
118 Libya 1158.03 1155.23 2.80 120 2
119 Togo 1152.18 1165.74 -13.56 118 -1
120 Guinea-Bissau 1151.72 1197.83 -46.11 103 -17
121 Zimbabwe 1151.06 1144.56 6.50 124 3
122 Niger 1145.96 1127.75 18.21 129 7
123 Estonia 1142.53 1149.70 -7.17 122 -1
124 Indonesia 1138.30 1064.01 74.29 146 22
125 Rwanda 1136.06 1107.04 29.02 133 8
126 Gambia 1134.69 1140.06 -5.37 126 0
127 India 1133.62 1200.80 -67.18 102 -25
128 Congo 1132.65 1179.80 -47.15 112 -16
129 Sierra Leone 1132.06 1138.53 -6.47 127 -2
130 Cyprus 1131.32 1143.42 -12.10 125 -5
131 Malawi 1129.31 1149.40 -20.09 123 -8
132 Malaysia 1117.99 1122.87 -4.88 130 -2
133 Nicaragua 1114.28 1104.26 10.02 134 1
134 Kuwait 1107.15 1098.07 9.08 136 2
135 Central African Republic 1102.23 1121.34 -19.11 131 -4
136 Botswana 1098.85 1064.50 34.35 145 9
137 Faroe Islands 1096.88 1102.10 -5.22 135 -2
138 Surinam 1096.60 1071.85 24.75 143 5
139 Burundi 1087.26 1086.62 0.64 139 0
140 Latvia 1084.11 1097.84 -13.73 137 -3
141 Dominican Republic 1083.36 1040.77 42.59 151 10
142 Lithuania 1069.96 1086.93 -16.97 138 -4
143 Turkmenistan 1065.42 1078.25 -12.83 141 -2
144 St. Kitts and Nevis 1064.99 1057.05 7.94 147 3
145 Liberia 1063.04 1024.11 38.93 153 8
146 Ethiopia 1059.94 1068.79 -8.85 144 -2
147 Fiji 1053.82 981.26 72.56 168 21
148 Solomon Islands 1050.84 1113.57 -62.73 132 -16
149 Philippines 1049.92 1086.17 -36.25 140 -9
150 Lesotho 1046.76 1047.27 -0.51 148 -2
151 Moldova 1045.59 1022.60 22.99 155 4
152 New Caledonia 1034.30 1008.92 25.38 159 7
153 Tahiti 1031.47 999.48 31.99 163 10
154 Guyana 1030.60 1018.14 12.46 157 3
155 Hong Kong 1028.75 1042.93 -14.18 150 -5
156 Afghanistan 1025.00 1017.68 7.32 158 2
157 Puerto Rico 1022.83 1007.19 15.64 160 3
158 Eswatini 1015.25 1045.88 -30.63 149 -9
159 Yemen 1014.54 1027.94 -13.40 152 -7
160 Singapore 1011.66 1020.50 -8.84 156 -4
161 Antigua and Barbuda 1010.97 1072.66 -61.69 142 -19
162 Maldives 1001.39 1003.48 -2.09 161 -1
163 Cuba 994.43 980.65 13.78 169 6
164 Vanuatu 991.67 980.33 11.34 170 6
165 Taiwan 990.57 1023.93 -33.36 154 -11
166 Bermuda 988.19 972.36 15.83 171 5
167 St. Lucia 985.72 988.67 -2.95 167 0
168 Malta 983.95 967.29 16.66 172 4
169 Myanmar 982.15 1000.46 -18.31 162 -7
170 South Sudan 973.55 989.29 -15.74 166 -4
171 Andorra 971.54 998.00 -26.46 164 -7
172 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 961.92 953.47 8.45 173 1
173 Papua New Guinea 961.12 990.61 -29.49 165 -8
174 Grenada 955.44 950.99 4.45 174 0
175 Nepal 939.20 948.05 -8.85 175 0
176 Chad 935.41 920.37 15.04 181 5
177 Barbados 933.29 943.80 -10.51 178 1
178 Belize 925.02 918.68 6.34 182 4
179 Mauritius 923.46 944.95 -21.49 177 -2
180 Cambodia 917.51 931.47 -13.96 179 -1
181 Montserrat 914.25 946.08 -31.83 176 -5
182 Bhutan 904.06 913.02 -8.96 184 2
183 Dominica 900.00 922.25 -22.25 180 -3
184 Brunei 899.87 870.63 29.24 194 10
185 Bangladesh 898.81 916.75 -17.94 183 -2
186 Laos 886.84 889.62 -2.78 189 3
187 American Samoa 883.17 890.97 -7.80 188 1
188 Mongolia 879.75 889.16 -9.41 190 2
189 São Tomé and Príncipe 878.09 888.94 -10.85 191 2
190 Cook Islands 877.53 897.30 -19.77 185 -5
191 Djibouti 877.37 881.18 -3.81 192 1
192 Samoa 876.41 896.78 -20.37 186 -6
193 Macao 872.55 896.62 -24.07 187 -6
194 Cayman Islands 866.71 851.19 15.52 198 4
195 Aruba 858.00 879.32 -21.32 193 -2
196 Eritrea 855.56 855.56 -0.00 197 1
197 Gibraltar 848.58 840.80 7.78 202 5
198 Timor Leste 846.81 843.40 3.41 201 3
199 Pakistan 842.59 856.54 -13.95 195 -4
200 Tonga 835.64 856.18 -20.54 196 -4
201 Sri Lanka 832.80 822.03 10.77 205 4
202 Seychelles 831.19 845.53 -14.34 200 -2
203 Somalia 829.81 845.66 -15.85 199 -4
204 Liechtenstein 821.71 833.01 -11.30 204 0
205 Guam 818.59 821.91 -3.32 206 1
206 Bahamas 818.58 835.81 -17.23 203 -3
207 Turks and Caicos Islands 803.98 818.57 -14.59 207 0
208 British Virgin Islands 780.30 807.57 -27.27 208 0
209 US Virgin Islands 779.71 796.78 -17.07 209 0
210 Anguilla 769.31 785.69 -16.38 210 0
211 San Marino 747.42 741.61 5.81 211 0
Thanks Homer
ReplyDeleteWith the EUFA WCQ Groups now drawn there are a number of issues with modelling direct WCQ and WCQ playoff percentages, mostly due to the unknown pot 1 teams based on the EUFA NL Quarter Finals.
ReplyDeleteSo it may be better to wait until those matches have been played during the March 2025 and all groups are known before simulating outcomes prior to the June window.
Well, I think we don't have to just because the teams are not known. The UEFA Nations League quarter finals can be predicted and therefore simulated also just like the groups. The only reason that I'm not publishing the simulation is because running such a simulation isn't child's play. While Ed worked this all out and undoubtedly took time for that, and while I have his Excel sources, I don't have a private copy of Excel and as such I need to work this out myself. So this will take a little while still, not only because this is complex, but because it requires a few steps. I'm currently adding the ability to automatically determine the teams for the "next" match, which is simple if you do it manually, i.e. "winner of group A" or "winner of quarter final", but my software never required that knowledge for anything so I'm building that at present. Perhaps Ed ran the simulation once before running it the subsequent 9999 times after that and "taught" his software which was the "next" match in a sequence of matches by defining it at run time in that first run. I'm trying to make my software work that out also for the first time so that I never have to "teach" it. So give me a while still as I also have a day job.
DeleteEven without simulations I am interested to look at which of the 14 NL Group Winners are likely to qualify for the 4 Nations League path WCQ playoff spots.
ReplyDeleteBased on 2022 I expect all of the League A and B winners to make the "best 28", with Romania as the highest Ranked League C Group Winner quite a decent chance of at least a NL path spot.
I suspect a League D winner earning a playoff spot is unlikely unless Moldova manages a miracle and finishes 2nd in their group.
I'm sure given time we can have an answer to that.
Delete